The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[poweranimals]

Edit: Never mind.

Edited March 1, 2023 by poweranimals

[keysersoze123]

41 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I didn't track the last Demon Slayer (plus the ratios back then were super different). I have MHA from October 2021, it seems to have similar sales to that one (32305 Monday night/35433 Tuesday night) which did around 2.8m Friday in the end. 

There is no way this just does 3m. Already by my estimate its around 2.5m PS for friday. There is still 3 days to go. Let us see how it goes. 

[Inceptionzq]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

@Inceptionzq Any chance can you do one time run for Demon Slayer at Megaplex/Drafthouse.

Yeah I should be able to tomorrow.

[Porthos]

Wanted to wait and see if this was a one off, but additional Early Access shows for Creed III are starting to pop up locally (10pm+).

 

Three theaters so far, but three is more than zero.

[Eric is Quiet]

On 2/28/2023 at 12:47 AM, Eric Creed said:

Creed III Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	68	1663	14223	11.69%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 393

 

Comp - T-3

1.027x of F9 (7.29M)

1.067x of No Time to Die (6.72M)

1.587x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (7.14M)

1.271x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (7.63M)

1.760x of Nope (11.26M)

1.039x of Black Adam (7.89M)

0.156x of Black Panther 2 (4.36M)

0.451x of Avatar 2 (7.67M)

Creed III Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	83	2102	15882	13.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 439

 

Comp - T-2

1.085x of F9 (7.7M)

1.125x of No Time to Die (7.08M)

1.629x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (7.33M)

1.420x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (8.52M)

1.675x of Nope (10.72M)

1.091x of Black Adam (8.29M)

0.181x of Black Panther 2 (5.08M)

0.515x of Avatar 2 (8.76M)

[Porthos]

21 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	77	8931	9739	808	8.30%

 

Total Showings Removed Today	1
Total Seats Removed Today	121
Total Seats Sold Today	46

 

T-10 Comp

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Morbius	94.17		66	858		0/127	17884/18742	4.58%		3477	23.24%		5.37m
Sonic 2	124.69		36	648		0/89	11792/12440	5.21%		3951	20.45%		7.79m
Nope	171.91		65	470		0/86	13221/13691	3.43%		3822	21.14%		11.00m
BA	72.08		47	1121		0/148	21302/22423	5.00%		4494	17.98%		5.48m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       143/2507  [5.70% sold]
Matinee:       54/687  [7.86% | 6.68% of all tickets sold]
3D:            365/3150  [11.59% | 45.17% of all tickets sold]

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	77	8897	9747	850	8.72%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

42

 

T-9 Comp

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Morbius	91.79		68	926		0/141	19381/20307	4.56%		3477	24.45%		5.23m
Sonic 2	119.21		65	713		0/92	12224/12937	5.51%		3951	21.51%		7.45m
Nope	167.98		36	506		0/86	13185/13691	3.70%		3822	22.24%		10.75m
BA	71.31		71	1192		0/152	21769/22961	5.19%		4494	18.91%		5.42m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      152/2515  [6.04% sold]
Matinee:     55/691  [7.96% | 6.47% of all tickets sold]
3D:         383/3154  [12.14% | 45.06% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

21 hours ago, Porthos said:

Quick and Dirty Creed III Greater Sacramento Report [T-3]:

1099/13169 (8.35% sold) [+184 tickets]

 

93.37% of GBA              at T-3 (4.20m)

67.42% of Sonic 2         at T-3 (4.21m)

14.17% of TGM              at T-3 (2.73m)

18.13% of JWD              at T-3 (3.26m)

90.04% of Nope            at T-3 (5.78m)

50.60% of Black Adam at T-3 (3.85m)

 

---

 

I dislike using anything before GBA, but for what it's worth, NTTD = 3.62m.  I've been tooling around with a Sacto pre-ATP hike adjustment for the 2021 movies I tracked before GBA and while I'm not ready to roll it out quite yet (still want to fine tune it, cross check it against other genres, that sort of thing), if I hike it upwards roughly by an ad-hoc of 12%, I get NTTD = 4.05m, which is roughly in line with the GBA and Sonic 2 comps.

 

Nope is an outlier here (and it's trending downward locally) so don't take to much from it.  Other comps are semi-stable though.  The one note of caution (well two notes) is that this will be a 7pm preview start time so don't know how that'll play havoc with comps with films that had 2pm/3pm/4pm start times.  Maybe not much, but at this level of sales it can still matter.

 

Also disparate genres here which means far more adults than many of the films I have listed above. 

 

Still, looking pretty good for Creed III, IMO.

 

Quick and Dirty Creed III Greater Sacramento Report [T-2]:

1471/13646 (10.78% sold) [+372 tickets/+477 seats]

Sellouts: 1 (+0)

 

97.42% of GBA              at T-2 (4.38m)

70.18% of Sonic 2         at T-2 (4.39m)

16.89% of TGM             at T-2 (3.25m)

21.45% of JWD              at T-2 (3.86m)

94.96% of Nope            at T-2 (6.07m)

57.26% of Black Adam at T-2 (4.35m)

 

===

 

Forgot to note there is a sellout locally in last night's Q&D.  Edited last night's post and repeated the info here.

[Eric is Quiet]

On 2/28/2023 at 1:06 AM, Eric Creed said:

Operation Fortune: Ruse de Gurre Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	17	23	1905	1.21%

 

Comp - T-3

0.153x of Snake Eyes (215K)

0.639x of The 355 (224K)

0.120x of Moonfall (84K)

0.255x of Ambulance (179K)

0.035x of Bullet Train (160K)

0.149x of Violent Night (164K)

0.287x of Plane (180K)

Operation Fortune: Ruse de Gurre Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	22	38	2267	1.68%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 15

 

Comp - T-2

0.187x of Snake Eyes (262K)

0.679x of The 355 (237K)

0.178x of Moonfall (125K)

0.355x of Ambulance (248K)

0.039x of Bullet Train (181K)

0.188x of Violent Night (207K)

0.262x of Plane (164K)

[Eric is Quiet]

On 2/28/2023 at 1:14 AM, Eric Creed said:

Scream VI Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	781	8200	9.52%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 33

 

Comp - T-10

1.743x of Halloween Kills (8.45M)

2.061x of Scream (7.21M)

1.997x of Nope (12.78M)

1.095x of Halloween Ends (5.91M)

Scream VI Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	52	825	8450	9.76%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 44

 

Comp - T-9

1.618x of Halloween Kills (7.84M)

1.892x of Scream (6.62M)

1.964x of Nope (12.57M)

1.129x of Halloween Ends (6.09M)

[Eric is Quiet]

On 2/28/2023 at 1:22 AM, Eric Creed said:

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	84	269	17155	1.57%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 22

 

Comp - T-17

0.165x of Black Widow (2.18M)

1.212x of The Suicide Squad (4.97M)

0.527x of Shang-Chi (4.64M)

0.212x of Eternals (2.01M)

1.067x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (4.8M)

0.712x of Morbius (4.06M)

0.604x of Sonic 2 (3.78M)

0.177x of Jurassic World: Dominion (3.19M)

0.069x of Ant-Man 3 (1.2M)

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	84	280	17155	1.63%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 11

 

Comp - T-16

0.163x of Black Widow (2.15M)

1.191x of The Suicide Squad (4.88M)

0.397x of Shang-Chi (3.49M)

0.206x of Eternals (1.96M)

0.841x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (3.78M)

0.575x of Morbius (3.28M)

0.601x of Sonic 2 (3.75M)

1.057x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (6.34M)

0.178x of Jurassic World: Dominion (3.21M)

0.070x of Ant-Man 3 (1.22M)

[stripe]

11 hours ago, CJohn said:

I am starting to smell a breakout for DnD. It premieres at SXSW and it seems Paramount is incredibly confident in it. It also had a Big Game spot. Very curious to see how that one does.

 

Agree with D&D breakout potential. It looks fresh and Paramount is pushing it. If word of mouth after SXSW is solid, watch out! 

[vafrow]

I was looking at the screen allocations at the Cineplex theatres near me ((west end of the greater Toronto area) and Antman is still getting 25-30% of screens this weekend. Creed is getting IMAX screens, but not other premium formats.

 

They might be locked in due to commitment to Disney or just had this planned out before the bottom fell out, but, there's going to be a lot of near empty screenings this weekend.

[Menor the Destroyer]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

There is no way this just does 3m. Already by my estimate its around 2.5m PS for friday. There is still 3 days to go. Let us see how it goes. 

I think MTC2 ratio is high for anime (plus MTC3 may not have been fully recovered when MHA released, I don't remember). Anyway I'm not sure it will even double initial PS from here (I don't have an exact final number for MHA, but based on what I took Friday evening I doubt it got there). So if it's 2.5m now, that could be 5m.

[misterpepp]

20 hours ago, datpepper said:

Mario on sale Mar 25 at noon EST.

Figured something was off. March 9 5pm est.

[Joyous Legion]

1 minute ago, datpepper said:

Figured something was off. March 9 5pm est.

Booo, was a lot more fun the other way

[BadOlCatSylvester]

12 minutes ago, datpepper said:

Figured something was off. March 9 5pm est.

The final trailer is scheduled for release at around the same time, so this makes far more sense.

[GOGODanca]

John Wick social embargo drops on the 6th

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 2/28/2023 at 8:56 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Champions	T-9	Jax	4	6	0	1	649	0.15%
		Phx	5	8	0	1	674	0.15%
		Ral	6	11	0	0	1,083	0.00%
	Total		15	25	0	2	2,406	0.08%
Creed III	T-2	Jax	5	27	11	192	4,400	4.36%
		Phx	6	17	42	201	2,573	7.81%
		Ral	8	30	41	237	3,417	6.94%
	Total		19	74	94	630	10,390	6.06%
Creed III (EA)	T-1	Jax	5	8	20	142	2,172	6.54%
		Phx	1	2	18	61	618	9.87%
		Ral	2	2	9	84	412	20.39%
	Total		8	12	47	287	3,202	8.96%
Creed III (Pre)	T-0	Jax	1	1	20	20	389	5.14%
	Total		1	1	20	20	389	5.14%
Demon Slayer 2	T-3	Jax	5	17	53	462	2,730	16.92%
(OD)		Phx	5	15	59	548	2,556	21.44%
		Ral	7	23	56	575	2,664	21.58%
	Total		17	55	168	1,585	7,950	19.94%
Op Fortune	T-2	Jax	5	8	2	2	853	0.23%
		Phx	5	8	4	9	646	1.39%
		Ral	5	10	0	7	700	1.00%
	Total		15	26	6	18	2,199	0.82%
Scream VI	T-9	Jax	5	27	8	207	3,748	5.52%
		Phx	5	17	12	340	2,894	11.75%
		Ral	8	33	0	204	4,211	4.84%
	Total		18	77	20	751	10,853	6.92%
Shazam 2	T-16	Jax	5	56	9	115	9,734	1.18%
		Phx	6	29	17	124	6,134	2.02%
		Ral	8	53	-3	130	7,666	1.70%
	Total		19	138	23	369	23,534	1.57%

 

Creed III EA T-1 comps

 - NTTD EA - missed

 - Ghostbusters EA - 6.523x (2.28m)

 - Bullet Train EA - 1.511x (1.89m)

 - Elvis EA - missed

 - Crawdads EA - 5.415x (1.62m)

 

Creed III T-2 comps

 - Elvis - .848x (2.71m)

 - No Time to Die - missed

 - Dune - .418x (2.13m)

 - F9 - .36x (2.59m)

 - Death on the Nile - 3.09x (3.4m)

 - Bullet Train - 1.2x (4.02m)

 - Free Guy - 1.795x (3.95m)

 - Suicide Squad - .863x (3.54m)

 

Operation Fortune T-2 comps

 - Plane - .194x (120k)

 - Ambulance - .2x (140k)

 - Bones & All - .33x (115k)

 

Demon Slayer 2 T-3 comps

 - MHA (OD) - 1.468x (4.23m)

 - JJK 0 - 1.312x (3.78m)

 - Dragon Ball Z - 1.408x (6.06m)

 - Slime - 20.86x (5.21m)

 - One Piece - 2.607x (4.42m)

 

Scream VI T-9 comps

 - Nope - 1.594x (10.2m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 7.59x (11m)

 - Black Adam - missed

 - Suicide Squad - 2.377x (9.74m)

 - F9 - .869x (6.17m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .831x (4.98m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - Morbius - 1.134x (6.47m)

 

Champions T-9 comps

 - 12 Mighty Orphans - .286x

 - Respect - .077x (50k)

 

Shazam 2 T-16 comps

 - Sonic 2 - 1.281x (6.38m)

 - Black Widow - .215x (2.84m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - .11x (1.84m)

 - Eternals - .302x (2.87m)

 - F9 - .73x (5.2m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
65	T-8	Jax	4	20	1	1	1,784	0.06%
		Phx	4	9	0	0	1,008	0.00%
		Ral	6	20	0	0	2,197	0.00%
	Total		14	49	1	1	4,989	0.02%
Champions	T-8	Jax	4	6	0	1	649	0.15%
		Phx	5	8	0	1	674	0.15%
		Ral	6	11	0	0	1,083	0.00%
	Total		15	25	0	2	2,406	0.08%
Creed III	T-1	Jax	5	33	97	289	5,052	5.72%
		Phx	7	28	74	275	3,818	7.20%
		Ral	8	34	72	309	3,665	8.43%
	Total		20	95	243	873	12,535	6.96%
Creed III (EA)	T-0	Jax	5	8	49	191	2,172	8.79%
		Phx	1	2	32	93	618	15.05%
		Ral	2	2	20	104	412	25.24%
	Total		8	12	101	388	3,202	12.12%
Demon Slayer 2	T-2	Jax	5	25	68	530	3,324	15.94%
(OD)		Phx	5	31	111	659	4,957	13.29%
		Ral	7	31	110	685	3,372	20.31%
	Total		17	87	289	1,874	11,653	16.08%
John Wick 4	T-22	Jax	5	40	38	38	6,900	0.55%
		Phx	4	21	37	37	3,854	0.96%
		Ral	6	31	43	43	4,293	1.00%
	Total		15	92	118	118	15,047	0.78%
Op Fortune	T-1	Jax	5	8	0	2	853	0.23%
		Phx	7	12	12	21	967	2.17%
		Ral	7	13	10	17	854	1.99%
	Total		19	33	22	40	2,674	1.50%
Scream VI	T-8	Jax	5	31	13	220	4,222	5.21%
		Phx	6	24	26	366	4,824	7.59%
		Ral	8	33	6	210	4,211	4.99%
	Total		19	88	45	796	13,257	6.00%
Shazam 2	T-15	Jax	5	56	2	117	9,734	1.20%
		Phx	6	29	3	127	6,134	2.07%
		Ral	8	53	4	134	7,666	1.75%
	Total		19	138	9	378	23,534	1.61%

 

Lots of new shows added for this week's releases and added 65 and John Wick!

 

Creed III EA T-0 comps

 - NTTD EA - missed

 - Ghostbusters EA - 5.389x (1.89m)

 - Bullet Train EA - 1.504x (1.88m)

 - Elvis EA - 2.57x (771k)

 - Crawdads EA - 7.185x (2.16m)

 

Looking like close to 2m from EA!

 

Creed III T-1 comps

 - Elvis - 1.015x (3.25m)

 - No Time to Die - missed

 - Dune - .495x (2.53m)

 - F9 - .4x (2.84m)

 - Death on the Nile - 3.51x (3.86m)

 - Bullet Train - 1.178x (3.95m)

 - Free Guy - 2.161x (4.75m)

 - Suicide Squad - .911x (3.74m)

 

Aaand maybe around 3.5m for true previews.

 

Operation Fortune T-1 comps

 - Plane - .286x (179k)

 - Ambulance - .305x (214k)

 - Bones & All - .58x (200k)

 

Demon Slayer 2 T-2 comps

 - MHA (OD) - 1.604x (4.63m)

 - JJK 0 - 1.386x (3.99m)

 - Dragon Ball Z - 1.521x (6.55m)

 - Slime - 20.82x (5.21m)

 - One Piece - 2.689x (4.56m)

 

Expecting around 4.5m Friday at this point, and most theaters are finally adding a second screen.

 

Scream VI T-8 comps

 - Nope - 1.608x (10.29m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 7.65x (11.1m)

 - Black Adam - .807x (6.14m)

 - Suicide Squad - 2.327x (9.54m)

 - F9 - .884x (6.28m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .765x (4.59m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.453x (6.03m)

 - Morbius - 1.086x (6.19m)

 

Champions T-8 comps

 - 12 Mighty Orphans - .222x

 - Respect - .057x (37k)

 

Shazam 2 T-15 comps

 - Sonic 2 - 1.252x (6.23m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 1.047x (6.28m)

 - No Time to Die - 1.068x (5.55m)

 - F9 - .7x (4.96m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.3x (5.39m)

 

Finally some (maybe) more realistic comps.  Hopefully this is not a CBM.

[Tinalera]

Scream 6

Toronto and Montreal Canada

Thurs Mar 9 and Fri Mar 10  (t-9)

 

Toronto	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	10	231	3435	3666	0.0630
Fri	4	20	207	4129	4336	0.0477
Montreal
Thurs	2	6	124	1581	1705	0.0727
Fri	2	10	78	2867	2945	0.0264

[Ronin46]

Box Office Pro 

 

Film	Studio	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, March 5	Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed)	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Creed III	MGM	$43,000,000	$43,000,000	~4,000	NEW
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania	Disney & Marvel Studios	$14,100,000	$188,300,000	~3,800	-56%
Demon Slayer: To the Swordsmith Village	Crunchyroll	$10,800,000	$10,800,000	~2,000	NEW
Cocaine Bear	Universal Pictures	$10,300,000	$40,300,000	~3,500	-56%
Jesus Revolution	Lionsgate	$9,400,000	$31,000,000	~2,600	-41%
Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre	Lionsgate	$4,000,000	$4,000,000	2,150	NEW
Avatar: The Way of Water	Disney & 20th Century Studios	$3,200,000	$670,300,000	~2,300	-34%
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish	Universal Pictures & DreamWorks Animation	$3,000,000	$177,500,000	~2,600	-27%
Magic Mike’s Last Dance	Warner Bros. Pictures	$1,200,000	$25,300,000	~1,700	-58%
80 for Brady	Paramount Pictures	$1,100,000	$38,500,000	~1,600	-42%