The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Menor the Destroyer]

18 hours ago, Menor Reborn said:

John Wick Marcus (from last night, so no impact from Atom deal yet)

 

Thursday

Showtimes: 473

Seats Sold: 5840/71157

 

Comps:

0.95x Black Adam (7.22 million)

 

Friday

Showtimes: 685

Seats Sold: 6718/107734

 

1.55x Creed 3 (25.4 million) 

(adjusting for blocked seats, the "true" comp is likely closer to 30 million, which will certainly drop throughout the final week)

 

Thursday

Showtimes: 654 (+171)

Seats Sold: 7563/90642 (+1723)

 

I didn't have T-2 Black Adam but T-1 was only 7600 or so, so Wick 4 will have blown way past that by then. 

 

Friday

Showtimes: 1173 (+488)

Seats Sold: 11044/164846 (+4326)

 

1.82x Creed 3 (29.82 million)

without blocked the comp would be 33+

 

Not the best comps for either day, but huge day yesterday.  

[cooldude97]

wonder how much this is nintendo's decision since they have a tendacy for close to release review embargos

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

The Super Mario Bros. Movie T-14: 59.46% Awareness, 6.18 Interest

Mafia Mamma T-23: 22.74%, 5.14

The Pope's Exorcist T-23: 28.72%, 5.21

Beau is Afraid T-30: 10.7%, 4.65

The Boogeyman T-72: 31.64%, 5.98

Talk To Me T-128: 8.76%, 4.6

The Marvels T-233: 41.42%, 6.37

 

John Wick: Chapter 4 T-2: 64.94% Awareness, 7.11 Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 90% chance of 50M, 80% chance of 70M, 60% chance of 100M

Final Interest: 100% chance of 100M

 

Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret T-37: 18.48% Awareness, 4.96 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

T-30 Interest: 42% chance of 10M

Known IP Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Known IP Interest: 0% chance of 10M

 

Fast X T-58: 50.94% Awareness, 6.21 Interest

T-60 Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 86% chance of 50M, 71% chance of 100M

T-60 Interest: 100% chance of 40M, 86% chance of 50M, 57% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 100M

[ThomasNicole]

17 minutes ago, cooldude97 said:

wonder how much this is nintendo's decision since they have a tendacy for close to release review embargos

Considering Illumination track record, it´s probably not very good so they´re avoiding meltdowns on social media over a 55 - 65% on RT 

 

The team behind the movie is decent tho so maybe it can be Nintendo, it´s less probable tho 

[OceanBlvd]

I don’t think it has anything to do with review scores tbh.

Edited March 27, 2023 by OceanBlvd

[ThatWaluigiDude]

Maybe this Mario embargo reflects the original release date of april 7th? Before it got moved two days earlier. I don't really know how it works with embargo and release date changes, and when these screenings for critics happen. But also since this is half a Nintendo financed movie, they wanting to be secretive is not impossible too.

[cooldude97]

21 minutes ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

Maybe this Mario embargo reflects the original release date of april 7th? Before it got moved two days earlier. I don't really know how it works with embargo and release date changes, and when these screenings for critics happen. But also since this is half a Nintendo financed movie, they wanting to be secretive is not impossible too.

I mean, this is the same Nintendo that had a review embargo for BOTW that only dropped like 15 hours before the game came out, despite it being a important launch title for there next system

[el sid]

John Wick: Chapter 4, counted today for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 464 (11 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 392 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 91 (9 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 37+ (5 showtimes, 2 SO reported, probably not true)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 165 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 719 (15 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 813 (18 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 2.681.

Up modest 31% since Monday.
Comps (all films counted on Wednesday of the release week for Thursday): Creed III (5.45M from previews) had 877 sold tickets (a film which had good walk-ups),
BT (4.6M) had 1.238,
Uncharted (3.7M) had 1.062,
Angel Has Fallen (1.5M) had 354
and Plane (435k) had 161 sold tickets.
So still over/under 10M from the comps.

John Wick: Chapter 4, counted today for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 646 (13 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 370 (22 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 101 (16 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 19+ (6 showtimes, again 2 SO reported, probably not true)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 162 (15 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 552 (16 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 734 (24 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 2.584.
Not frontloaded. Its Friday presales are almost on par with the Thursday presales now. On Monday JW4 had 2.049 sold tickets (presales for Thursday) and 1.755 sold tickets (presales for Friday).

Up decent 47% since Monday.
Comps (all films counted on Wednesday of the release week for Friday): Creed III (58.4M OW) had 1.305 sold tickets,
BT (30M) had 1.000,
H&S (60M) had 1.941,
F9 (70M) had 2.812,
Top Gun 2 (126.7M) had 3.549,
Uncharted (44M) had 982,
Angel Has Fallen (21.4M) had 293
and Plane (10.3M) had 248 sold tickets.
 

As expected, lots of showtimes were added on both days. The only development which I don't like is that JW4 fell slightly behind F9. But as you can see, from all other comps it looks great.

Edited March 22, 2023 by el sid

[TheFlatLannister]

18 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

 

 

THURSDAY PREVIEWS 

GREATER ORLANDO AREA

 

JOHN WICK 4

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
95	2436	14836	16.4%

*numbers taken at approx 7:00pm EST

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY

484

 

 

NEW SHOWINGS ADDED

17

 

Lots of new showings added today, with amazing sales growth. Strong critics reactions definitely catalyzed sales. 

THURSDAY PREVIEWS 

GREATER ORLANDO AREA

 

JOHN WICK 4

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
107	2718	17185	15.8%

*numbers taken at approx 5:00pm EST

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY

282

 

 

NEW SHOWINGS ADDED

12

 

 

Comp:

Approx 2.5x of Shazam 

 

Yeah, so around $70M-$75M

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

Considering Illumination track record, it´s probably not very good so they´re avoiding meltdowns on social media over a 55 - 65% on RT 

 

The team behind the movie is decent tho so maybe it can be Nintendo, it´s less probable tho 

I dont like it. This is not video game. Late reviews dont make sense at all unless its rotten. plus this is a fricking animation movie. What spoilers they are worried about !!!! 

 

Anyway presales are really good and so it will have a good OD/OW. Let us see how things go during release week. 

[TheFlatLannister]

Presales for Mario are really really strong. I still think $100M+ 5 day even with poor reception 

 

But yeah, lifting the embargo that late doesn't bode well considering Mario isn't a part of a cinematic universe so no real spoilers to avoid. 

[cooldude97]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont like it. This is not video game. Late reviews dont make sense at all unless its rotten. plus this is a fricking animation movie. What spoilers they are worried about !!!! 

 

I hate that I can't tell if this is sarcastic or not

 

anyway how is D&D doing?

[keysersoze123]

11 minutes ago, cooldude97 said:

I hate that I can't tell if this is sarcastic or not

 

anyway how is D&D doing?

Not much to update. This is not when PS spikes. The Prime shows did do well, today there are 50 shows just for AMC investors which wont gross that much (50k ish). There are 2 more EA but not sure if they will gross that much. For previews/friday presales will spike only close to release week. Let us get past a big opener this week. 

[Eric Prime]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Not much to update. This is not when PS spikes. The Prime shows did do well, today there are 50 shows just for AMC investors which wont gross that much (50k ish). There are 2 more EA but not sure if they will gross that much. For previews/friday presales will spike only close to release week. Let us get past a big opener this week. 

Thank you for letting me know there are DnD shows tonight. Had no idea there was yet another day of sneak previews. That's...four of them? This is just ridiculous.

[keysersoze123]

This is just me extrapolating based on how MTC1 PS have been going for JW4. I cannot see friday(minus previews) below 25m. So 80m+ OW is happening and even 100m OW is in play with excellent walkups that I am hoping for. 

[Eric Prime]

13 hours ago, Eric Wick said:

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	111	2047	18780	10.90%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 293

 

Comp - T-2

2.279x of The Suicide Squad (9.35M)

0.946x of Venom 2 (10.98M)

1.095x of No Time to Die (6.9M)

1.348x of Dune (6.88M)

2.962x of Uncharted (10.96M)

1.383x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (8.3M)

0.569x of Top Gun 2 (10.95M)

0.585x of Jurassic World: Dominion (10.52M)

2.123x of Bullet Train (9.77M)

0.502x of Avatar 2 (8.53M)

 

The prophetic T-Mobile bump didn't really seem to happen here. But it's still tracking towards bigly numbers, so I guess it doesn't matter.

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	122	2500	20203	12.37%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 453

 

Comp - T-1

2.285x of The Suicide Squad (9.37M)

0.839x of Venom 2 (9.73M)

1.085x of No Time to Die (6.83M)

1.420x of Dune (7.24M)

2.812x of Uncharted (10.4M)

1.454x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (8.73M)

0.605x of Top Gun 2 (11.64M)

0.600x of Jurassic World: Dominion (10.81M)

2.208x of Bullet Train (10.16M)

0.549x of Avatar 2 (9.34M)

[keysersoze123]

On 3/21/2023 at 3:27 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Mario MTC1 OD - 53910/818774 910231.32 4089 shows

 

Not bad at all considering its more than 2 weeks away. 

Mario MTC1 OD - 56694/821617 953214.74 4111 shows

 

Another good day for sure. 

[Eric Prime]

13 hours ago, Eric Wick said:

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	159	1578	31960	4.94%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 51

 

Comp - T-15

1.012x of Sing 2 (9.85M)

3.274x of Sonic 2 (20.46M)

13.373x of Minions 2 (143.76M)

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	159	1696	31960	5.31%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 118

 

'Comp - T-14

1.069x of Sing 2 (10.41M)

3.378x of Sonic 2 (21.11M)

13.789x of Minions 2 (148.22M)

[cooldude97]

4 minutes ago, Eric Wick said:

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	159	1696	31960	5.31%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 118

 

'Comp - T-14

1.069x of Sing 2 (10.41M)

3.378x of Sonic 2 (21.11M)

13.789x of Minions 2 (148.22M)

Why did it more than double yesterday?

[Eric Prime]

2 minutes ago, cooldude97 said:

Why did it more than double yesterday?