The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[misterpepp]

Evil Dead Rise tix tentatively set for April 6

[keysersoze123]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

John Wick 4

MTC1 Previews - 101366/625289 1739769.58 3570 shows

MTC2 Previews - 65019/466688 925437.88 3231 shows

 

Not great boost from yesterday but as many said Atom deal was a factor for sure. But its all about walkups today. Let us see how things go. 

MTC1 is up to 129366/627051 2157640.30 3590 shows. Let us see how far it can go up. if I have to guess ~ 10m previews is the target. But I would be more confident end of day. 

Edited March 23, 2023 by keysersoze123

[TheFlatLannister]

$10M previews pretty much locks $80M right? 

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:45am - 12:20pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	185	18230	22575	4345	19.25%

 

Total Showings Added Since Last Night	12
Total Seats Added Since Last Night	1333
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	430

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Comps

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD [12:00-12:35]	140.66		303	3089		0/178	21629/24718	12.50%		3737	116.27%		8.72m
TGM [11:30-12:30]	41.93		707	10363		2/345	32649/43012	24.09%		11474	37.87%		8.08m
JWD [12:00-12:50]	45.79		1071	9490		0/290	24248/33738	28.13%		10966	39.62%		8.24m
BA [11:35-12:25]	120.03		466	3620		0/250	28058/31678	11.43%		4494	96.68%		9.12m
A2 [11:30-12:15]	54.95		666	7907		0/310	27128/35035	22.57%		8986	48.35%		9.34m
Scrm 6 [12:05-12:25]	166.92		324	2603		0/118	11473/14076	18.49%		3134	138.64%		9.51m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Wick 4's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       1037/7416  [13.98% sold]
Matinee:    321/2443  [13.14% | 7.39% of all tickets sold]

 

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:50pm - 4:15pm]

*NOTE:  All showings that started before 3:50pm were sampled at their start time.

 

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	186	17238	22686	5448	24.01%

 

Total Net Showings Added Since Mid-Day	1
Total Net Seats Added Since Mid-Day	111
Total Net Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	1103

 

T-0 Comps

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD [3:50-4:25]	145.79		648	3737		0/178	20981/24718	15.12%		3737	145.79%		9.04m
TGM [3:30-4:45]	47.48		1111	11474		2/345	31538/43012	26.68%		11474	47.48%		9.14m
JWD [3:45-4:35]	49.68		1476	10966		0/290	22873/33839	32.41%		10966	49.68%		8.94m
BA [3:45-4:35]	121.23		874	4494		0/250	27184/31678	14.19%		4494	121.23%		9.21m
Ava 2 [3:50-4:25]	60.63		1079	8986		0/310	26049/35035	25.65%		8986	60.63%		10.31m
Creed III [6:25-6:40]	156.01		1213*	3492		—/—	10624/14116	24.74%		3492	156.01%		9.20m
Scrm 6 [4:20-4:40]	173.84		531	3134		0/121	11402/14536	21.56%		3134	173.84%		9.91m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Wick 4's current tickets sold versus that final number.

CREED II NOTE:  The number of tickets sold represents the amount sold since the previous day as that movie was not sampled at mid-day.

 

Regal:       1037/7416  [13.98% sold]
Matinee:    321/2443  [13.14% | 7.39% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Hmmm.  Strong day of walkups, and the only R-rated comp I have is pointing to a near 10m opening.  That had a ton of 3D showings though, as Ava 2 did as well of course.  On the other hand, should be more adult tickets sold (or rather fewer kids tickets) than most of the CBMs and even JWD.

 

Still... don't feel comfortable with 10m as a base so let's go with 9.6m +/-0.5m.

 

(kiiiiinda want to say 9.75m but I think the 3D sales from Scream 6 is making me back off)

Edited March 23, 2023 by Porthos

[Ronin46]

Box Office Report

 

Rank	Film (Distributor)	Weekend Gross	Total Gross	% Change	Week #
1	John Wick: Chapter 4 (Lionsgate)	$78.5 M	$78.5 M	NEW	1
2	Shazam! Fury of the Gods (Warner Bros. / New Line)	$11.2 M	$48.0 M	-63%	2
3	Creed III (MGM)	$9.0 M	$141.5 M	-41%	4
4	Scream VI (Paramount)	$8.5 M	$90.0 M	-51%	3
5	65 (Sony / Columbia)	$3.2 M	$27.8 M	-45%	3
6	Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania (Disney)	$2.6 M	$210.0 M	-38%	6
7	Jesus Revolution (Lionsgate)	$2.3 M	$49.3 M	-34%	5
8	Cocaine Bear (Universal)	$2.2 M	$62.3 M	-44%	5
9	Avatar: The Way of Water (Disney / 20th Century)	$1.65 M	$680.7 M	-21%	15
10	Champions (Focus)	$1.35 M	$13.4 M	-57%	3

[thajdikt]

Hopefully WOM pushes it over 80M

[Eric Duncan]

On 3/22/2023 at 7:25 PM, Eric Wick said:

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	122	2500	20203	12.37%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 453

 

Comp - T-1

2.285x of The Suicide Squad (9.37M)

0.839x of Venom 2 (9.73M)

1.085x of No Time to Die (6.83M)

1.420x of Dune (7.24M)

2.812x of Uncharted (10.4M)

1.454x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (8.73M)

0.605x of Top Gun 2 (11.64M)

0.600x of Jurassic World: Dominion (10.81M)

2.208x of Bullet Train (10.16M)

0.549x of Avatar 2 (9.34M)

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	122	4073	20203	20.16%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,573

 

Comp

2.003x of The Suicide Squad (8.21M)

0.778x of Venom 2 (9.02M)

1.400x of No Time to Die (8.82M)

1.742x of Dune (8.89M)

2.949x of Uncharted (10.91M)

1.729x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (10.37M)

0.792x of Top Gun 2 (15.25M)

0.648x of Jurassic World: Dominion (11.66M)

2.325x of Bullet Train (10.69M)

0.671x of Avatar 2 (11.41M)

 

Not a bad finish at all. About 10M sounds right here.

[DAJK]

Not to jump the gun here, but if you were to tell me in... 2015? That a John Wick sequel was going to out-open every single Mission: Impossible movie, and every single Bond movie (save for Skyfall... maybe) EVER, I would have called you nuts.

[vafrow]

To get a sense of how distorted my local theatre , John Wick, which is pacing ridiculously everywhere is at 130 tickets sold so far tonight across four showings, with only the late show yet to play. Last week, Shazam got up to 204.

 

This is a family oriented GTA suburb though, and March break was last week. Still, crazy to see it overindex one week, and then underindex the following.

[CJohn]

I fear DnD is gonna get lost between JW4 and Mario.

[Maggie]

14 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I fear DnD is gonna get lost between JW4 and Mario.

yep. Paramount is really trying to save DnD, but i don't know how successful they'll be.

[TheFlatLannister]

19 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I fear DnD is gonna get lost between JW4 and Mario.

OW looks like it will do well. After that...😬

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, DAJK said:

Not to jump the gun here, but if you were to tell me in... 2015? That a John Wick sequel was going to out-open every single Mission: Impossible movie, and every single Bond movie (save for Skyfall... maybe) EVER, I would have called you nuts.

Hoping for 100M+ for MI7

[filmlover]

7 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

OW looks like it will do well. After that...😬

Dungeons & Dragons' only needs to survive the Mario onslaught in its second weekend and then it has a clear path for staying power until Guardians 3 (since the rest of April's releases - the majority of which are rated R - are too niche to break out big).

[kayumanggi]

27 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Dungeons & Dragons' only needs to survive the Mario onslaught in its second weekend and then it has a clear path for staying power until Guardians 3 (since the rest of April's releases - the majority of which are rated R - are too niche to break out big).

 

Yeah. I really hope they coexist and make money because I want a D&D sequel so bad.

[Pinacolada]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

I fear DnD is gonna get lost between JW4 and Mario.

Yeah Paramount is doing right by DnD in the sense that the early screenings have indeed driven up interest it seems, they're all selling well. But man, JW4 and Mario are looking like absolute powerhouses (the former especially is looking pretty crazy if tracking holds). If JW4 opens to $80m+ (which is looking extremely likely), DnD will probably struggle to open #1 in its OW

[keysersoze123]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC1 is up to 129366/627051 2157640.30 3590 shows. Let us see how far it can go up. if I have to guess ~ 10m previews is the target. But I would be more confident end of day. 

Sigh. It did not finish as well as what I hoped. I guess the long movie and Atom deal did have an impact on walkups. 

 

JW4 MTC1 previews - 159520/628949 2620679.76 3607 shows

 

Guessing somewhere around  ~9m for now. I will update MTC2 in the morning. 

[DAJK]

Going with 9.5 based on local comps. 

[keysersoze123]

JW4 MTC1 Friday - 148795/1009046 2494047.95 5786 shows

 

Its looking at low 20s at worst with similar walkups. I am hoping for 25m true friday. That will take its OW to low to mid 80s. Otherwise it ends up around BO.com prediction. Either way good OW for the movie. let us hope it has a good run and grosses over 200m domestic. 

[ChipDerby]