The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[charlie Jatinder]

@Eric Batson D&D previews may be worth starting before t-3 days.

@Porthos may be worth Q&D

[MightyDargon]

11 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@Eric Batson D&D previews may be worth starting before t-3 days.

@Porthos may be worth Q&D

At the risk of sounding stupid, how do previews get counted into the gross? And also, is there a way to track the impact on regular ticket sales from this?

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

At the risk of sounding stupid, how do previews get counted into the gross? And also, is there a way to track the impact on regular ticket sales from this?

The EAs will all be rolled into the reported preview number.   
 

Trying to figure out what degree of impact they’re having on Thursday sales can be pretty tricky, no perfect way to do it.

[Hiccup23]

On 3/14/2023 at 8:10 AM, Hiccup23 said:

Madison/Milwaukee Area Previews for John Wick 4

 

Really strong start. Theaters really only have 2-3 showtimes and more will get added as we get closer. 

 

	Total Sold	Total Seats	Percent Sold	# of           Showings
John Wick 4	479	5,594	8.6%	28

 

Updated number. (SouthGate Cinema's ticketing is down so it is not included.)*

 

Madison/Milwaukee Area Previews for John Wick 4

 

 

Film	Total Sold	Total Seats	Percent Sold	# of Showings
John Wick 4	907	5,564	16.3%	28

[MightyDargon]

Does this look like 65 mil plus material yet?

[TheFlatLannister]

12 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

it has everything going for it. Great hype, solid start to presales and open run until Guardians which is month later. Only question is the reception. If it can have great reception, it will be in pole position to win the year domestic and may be even WW if overseas audience are as excited by this movie. 

 

I definitely think 130/450m run is not outrageous. 

Agree

 

I would say 130/400M/1B+ run (barring any toxic WOM) 

[GOGODanca]

Curious to see when guardians goes on sale and if it also runs 2PM previews like fast x

[Hiccup23]

All Marcus Theater DnD Early Screenings.

 

Film	Total Sold	Total Seats	Percent Sold	# of Showings
Dungeons and Dragons 3/22	154	595	25.9%	5
Dungeons and Dragons 3/26	492	2,499	19.7%	21

[DAJK]

1 hour ago, MightyDargon said:

Does this look like 65 mil plus material yet?

I'm thinking 70-75+ could be on the table. Not guaranteed, but sales are insane.

[cooldude97]

1 hour ago, MightyDargon said:

Does this look like 65 mil plus material yet?

your going to have to be more spacific on what movie your talking about 

[Tinalera]

Dungeons and Dragons

Thurs Mar 30 Fri Mar 31 (T-11)

Eastern Canada (Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Newfoundland)

 

T-11	NS		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
		Thurs	4	10	16	2555	2571	0.0062
		Fri	4	12	21	3241	3262	0.0064
	NB		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
		Thurs	3	5	30	1396	1426	0.0210
		Fri	3	9	25	2508	2533	0.009
	NFLD	Thurs	1	3	7	632	639	0.0110
		Fri	1	4	29	823	857	0.0338

 

 

Canada wide T-14 to T-11 (T-12 missed)

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouve	Thurs	3	13	52	2725	2777	0.0187
Calgary	Thurs	4	14	43	2738	2781	0.0154
Toronto	Thurs	4	15	59	4056	4115	0.0143
Montreal	Thurs	3	8	29	2342	2371	0.0122
NS	Thurs	4	10	16	2555	2571	0.0062
NB	Thurs	3	5	30	1396	1426	0.0210
NFLD	Thurs	1	3	7	632	639	0.0110
Thurs	Total	22	68	236	16444	16680	0.0141
Vancouve	Fri	3	19	80	4876	3969	0.0201
Calgary	Fri	4	14	150	3132	3282	0.0457
Toronto	Fri	3	19	73	5260	5333	0.0136
Montreal	Fri	3	11	123	3034	3157	0.0389
NS	Fri	4	12	21	3241	3262	0.0064
NB	Fri	3	9	25	2508	2533	0.0098
NFLD	Fri	1	4	29	823	857	0.0338
total		21	88	109	22874	22393	0.0048

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@Eric Batson D&D previews may be worth starting before t-3 days.

@Porthos may be worth Q&D

 

I didn't track the Amazon Prime showings so anything I would post would be off.

[MightyDargon]

1 hour ago, cooldude97 said:

your going to have to be more spacific on what movie your talking about 

Wick 4

[Maggie]

So is 70M OW a done deal for John Wick 4?

[Eric the Ape]

Quorum Updates

Air T-16: 28.91% Awareness, 5.37 Interest

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts T-81: 43.28%, 6.18

Ruby Gillman: Teenage Kraken T-102: 17.61%, 4.19

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny T-102: 38.69%, 6.1

Joy Ride T-109: 21.3%, 4.96

 

John Wick: Chapter 4 T-4: 63.7% Awareness, 7.08 Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 90% chance of 50M, 80% chance of 70M, 60% chance of 100M

Final Interest: 100% chance of 100M

 

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves T-11: 45.92% Awareness, 5.4 Interest

Final Awareness: 87% chance of 10M, 56% chance of 20M, 35% chance of 30M, 22% chance of 40M

Final Interest: 42% chance of 10M, 13% chance of 20M, 6% chance of 30M

Known IP Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 67% chance of 30M, 33% chance of 40M

 

Big George Foreman T-39: 25.66% Awareness, 5.38 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 65% chance of 10M

T-30 Interest: 53% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 75% chance of 5M, 50% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 73% chance of 5M, 36% chance of 10M

 

Book Club 2: The Next Chapter T-53: 18.41% Awareness, 4.65 Interest

T-60 Awareness: 28% chance of 10M

T-60 Interest: 36% chance of 10M

[cooldude97]

45 minutes ago, Eric Batson said:

Quorum Updates

Air T-16: 28.91% Awareness, 5.37 Interest

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts T-81: 43.28%, 6.18

Ruby Gillman: Teenage Kraken T-102: 17.61%, 4.19

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny T-102: 38.69%, 6.1

Joy Ride T-109: 21.3%, 4.96

 

John Wick: Chapter 4 T-4: 63.7% Awareness, 7.08 Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 90% chance of 50M, 80% chance of 70M, 60% chance of 100M

Final Interest: 100% chance of 100M

 

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves T-11: 45.92% Awareness, 5.4 Interest

Final Awareness: 87% chance of 10M, 56% chance of 20M, 35% chance of 30M, 22% chance of 40M

Final Interest: 42% chance of 10M, 13% chance of 20M, 6% chance of 30M

Known IP Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 67% chance of 30M, 33% chance of 40M

 

Big George Foreman T-39: 25.66% Awareness, 5.38 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 65% chance of 10M

T-30 Interest: 53% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 75% chance of 5M, 50% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 73% chance of 5M, 36% chance of 10M

 

Book Club 2: The Next Chapter T-53: 18.41% Awareness, 4.65 Interest

T-60 Awareness: 28% chance of 10M

T-60 Interest: 36% chance of 10M

didn't expect to see transformers higher then indy in awareness and intrest

[MightyDargon]

Just now, cooldude97 said:

didn't expect to see transformers higher then indy in awareness and intrest

Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, while probably a better movie than Extinction or Last Knight, utterly sucks in comparison to the entire rest of the series in a way that Knight or Extinction don't compared to other Transformers movies. Also Ford is WAAAYYYY too old for this type of role by now.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 3/19/2023 at 3:16 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

THURSDAY PREVIEWS 

GREATER ORLANDO AREA

 

JOHN WICK 4

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
73	1767	12438	14.2%

*numbers taken at approx 3:00pm EST

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY

102

 

 

NEW SHOWINGS ADDED

1

 

Another strong day of sales 

THURSDAY PREVIEWS 

GREATER ORLANDO AREA

 

JOHN WICK 4

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
78	1952	12982	15.0%

*numbers taken at approx 5:00pm EST

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY

185

 

 

NEW SHOWINGS ADDED

5

 

The pace is amazing. $70M+ here we come

[John Marston]

58 minutes ago, cooldude97 said:

didn't expect to see transformers higher then indy in awareness and intrest

 

shows that this is not 100% reliable since Indy 5 will likely make more than Rise of the Beasts in its opening weekend 

Edited March 20, 2023 by John Marston

[el sid]

Details tomorrow morning but also in my theaters it looked very good today.

 

The Thursday presales were ~2.3x those of Bullet Train.

And the Friday presales were on par/slighly above those of F9 (also counted on Monday of the release week for Friday).

I say 70M OW at the moment.