The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[TwoMisfits]

44 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

This is just me extrapolating based on how MTC1 PS have been going for JW4. I cannot see friday(minus previews) below 25m. So 80m+ OW is happening and even 100m OW is in play with excellent walkups that I am hoping for. 

 

Just caution - 4th of a series and TMobile deal strongly encouraging prebuys at the MTC1/2 locations...I wouldn't go flying too high til we see how overindexed they might be and how much walkups might be held down by prebuying behavior...

 

So, maybe don't throw out an "even 100M" yet...

 

[Brainbug]

54 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

This is just me extrapolating based on how MTC1 PS have been going for JW4. I cannot see friday(minus previews) below 25m. So 80m+ OW is happening and even 100m OW is in play with excellent walkups that I am hoping for. 

 

Casual reminder that the first John Wick opened with 14,4M back in 2014.

[TalismanRing]

NYC Regal Local (6pm)

John Wick 4: 148/2922

 

COMPS

Avatar 2: $9.64m
Venom 2: $8.98m
Dune: $8.35m
Bond: $7.87
TSS: $7.65m
Bad Boys 3: $7.57m

[Skim Beeble]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

This is just me extrapolating based on how MTC1 PS have been going for JW4. I cannot see friday(minus previews) below 25m. So 80m+ OW is happening and even 100m OW is in play with excellent walkups that I am hoping for. 

[ThomasNicole]

It´s a 169 minutes movie so i definitely think it can have outstanding walkups 

 

8M previews and 90M OW wouldn´t surprise me at all

 

But i´m happy with 75

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Going with a 90M OW for John Wick too. 

[Inceptionzq]

John Wick 4 Megaplex

 

T-1 Thursday(67 showings): 2067/19006

0.355x Black Panther WF T-1 (9.94M)

 

T-2 Friday(138 showings): 2503/39077

0.365x Black Panther WF T-2 (20.56M)

 

T-3 Saturday(137 showings): 1544/39009

0.436x Black Panther WF T-3 (24.47M)

 

T-4 Sunday(124 showings): 645/35762

0.651x Black Panther WF T-4 (26.63M)

 

Don't have any good comps for this... just threw in Black Panther because it's a big movie that underperformed locally. Btw, all the numbers I'm posting tonight are from almost 6 hours ago.

[Inceptionzq]

John Wick 4 Drafthouse

 

T-1 Thursday(255 showings): 9940/32795 ATP: $15.61

0.946x Avatar T-1 (16.08M)

0.697x Top Gun T-1 (13.43M)

 

T-2 Friday(413 showings): 11697/53553 ATP: $15.80

0.827x Avatar T-2 (29.93M)

0.898x Top Gun T-2 (29.40M)

 

T-3 Saturday(415 showings): 12143/53679 ATP: $15.28

0.809x Avatar T-3 (35.86M)

1.04x Top Gun T-3 (39.47M)

 

T-4 Sunday(371 showings): 6521/49343 ATP: $14.95

0.649x Avatar T-4 (23.73M)

0.722x Top Gun T-4 (24.50M)

[Inceptionzq]

Mario Megaplex

 

T-14 Wednesday(144 showings): 2497/45926

 

T-15 Thursday(145 showings): 680/46228

 

T-16 Friday(146 showings): 1297/46546

 

T-17 Saturday(148 showings): 1674/47238

 

Not sure what to do with the comp situation here. Maybe compare Wed+Thurs to other movies' Thurs+Fri? And just compare Friday and Saturday normally? I don't know, don't feel like figuring it out today

[Inceptionzq]

Mario Drafthouse

 

T-14 Wednesday(154 showings): 3614/25504

 

T-15 Thursday(155 showings): 2037/25830

 

T-16 Friday(175 showings): 4680/28455

 

T-17 Saturday(181 showings): 5369/29120

 

ATP doesn't wanna work for Mario

[Porthos]

20 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	166	17433	20632	3199	15.51%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	14
Total Net Seats Added Today	1288
Total Seats Sold Today	552

 

T-2 Comps

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	143.45		349	2230		0/176	22255/24486	9.11%		3737	85.60%		8.89m
TGM	36.72		957	8711		2/344	34293/43004	20.26%		11474	27.88%		7.07m
JWD	46.64		796	6859		0/288	26655/33514	20.47%		10966	29.17%		8.40m
BA	124.52		397	2569		0/232	28250/30819	8.34%		4494	71.18%		9.46m
A2	51.02		723	6270		0/296	27849/34119	18.38%		8986	35.60%		8.67m
Scream 6	179.62		268	1781		0/111	11647/13428	13.26%		3134	102.07%		10.24m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Wick 4's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	173	17327	21242	3915	18.43%

 

Total Showings Added Today	7
Total Seats Added Today	610
Total Seats Sold Today	716

 

T-1 Comps

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	140.52		556	2786		0/178	21932/24718	11.27%		3737	104.76%		8.71m
TGM	40.54		945	9656		2/345	33356/43012	22.45%		11474	34.12%		7.81m
JWD	46.50		1560	8419		0/290	25319/33738	24.95%		10966	35.70%		8.37m
BA	124.13		585	3154		0/249	28462/31616	9.98%		4494	87.12%		9.43m
A2	54.07		971	7241		0/309	27735/34976	20.70%		8986	43.57%		9.19m
Scream 6	171.79		498	2279		0/116	11326/13605	16.75%		3134	124.92%		9.79m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Wick 4's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     877/7416  [11.83% sold]
Matinee:    260/2443  [10.64% | 6.64% of all tickets sold]

Edited March 23, 2023 by Porthos

[kayumanggi]

We are entertaining 90M to 100M opening weekend now?

 

[efialtes76]

$100M?😂

Relax guys,relax.

 

[WorkingonaName]

John Wick 4 is gonna beat Quantimanias total Lol. 

[stripe]

Crazy JW4 numbers. Things that could happen:
JW4 OW > JW 86M WW gross

JW4 OW > JW2 92M DOM gross

 

 

 

[Maggie]

1 hour ago, efialtes76 said:

$100M?😂

Relax guys,relax.

 

NO. I want to believe!!!

[MightyDargon]

58 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

John Wick 4 is gonna beat Quantimanias total Lol. 

Is "over 200 mil" really that hard for a total gross?

[Brainbug]

5 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

Is "over 200 mil" really that hard for a total gross?

 

Nope. John Wick 3 with a 56,8M OW grossed 171M DOM. Thats a x3 multiplier. If John Wick 4 opens to 80M and has a slightly more frontloaded multi of 2,6, thats still 208M. Since id think the stellar reception would indicate better legs than that and the OW could also go much higher than 80M at this point, 200M DOM seems very safe right now.

[charlie Jatinder]

10 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Nope. John Wick 3 with a 56,8M OW grossed 171M DOM. Thats a x3 multiplier. If John Wick 4 opens to 80M and has a slightly more frontloaded multi of 2,6, thats still 208M. Since id think the stellar reception would indicate better legs than that and the OW could also go much higher than 80M at this point, 200M DOM seems very safe right now.

fwiw this franchise is growing OW & keeping multis intact.

[dobrevv]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-23/apple-to-splash-1-billion-a-year-on-films-to-break-into-cinemas#xj4y7vzkg