The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Starphanluke]

14 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Super Mario	T-0	Jax	5	152	-	2,707	23,796	11.38%
		Phx	7	127	-	3,168	18,001	17.60%
		Ral	8	152	-	4,941	18,033	27.40%
	Total		20	431	-	10,816	59,830	18.08%

 

T-0 comps

 - Minions 2 - 3.638x (39.11m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - 4.84x (30.246m)

 - Space Jam (Fri) - 2.44x (31.96m)

 - Lightyear - 6.277x (30.76m)

 - Paw Patrol (Fri) - 7.704x (34.85m)

 - Sing 2 (OD Wed) - 2.74x (22.32m)

 

T-1 hr comps

 - Minions 2 - 2.411x (25.92m)

 - Lightyear - 4.356x (21.34m)

 

Could go either way with opening day vs previews.  I didn't pull midnight shows and those had been selling very well.  I tend to lean more on the OD comps and would guess we do finish a little above 30m.  I'll put my prediction at 31.5m for OD, including the midnight shows.

 

Wouldn't above a $30m OD for a Wednesday release be kind of insane?

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

THE SUPER MARIO BROS.

 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
186	7393	35458	20.8%

*1 SELLOUT 

SEATS SOLD SINCE   T-2

1547

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE T-2

6

 

 

3D SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
42	1062	4557	23.3%

 

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE   T-2

273

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE T-2

0

 

COMP PREVIEWS:

JOHN WICK 4 (2.579x) ~$23M OD Previews 

D&D (6.808x) ~$28M OD Previews 

 

Prediction:

$25M-$30M OD 

$145M-150M 5 day

 

Mario has a serious shot at having the biggest OW of the year 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

THE SUPER MARIO BROS.

 

T-0

*Final Update

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
192	10924	35458	30.5%

 

*2 SELLOUTS

SEATS SOLD SINCE   T-1

3531

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE T-1

6

 

 

3D SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
49	1477	5011	29.5%

 

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE   T-1

415

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE T-1

7

 

Overall: 12401 SOLD/40813 SEATS 

 

COMP PREVIEWS:

JOHN WICK 4 (3.448x) ~$30M OD Previews 

D&D (9.984x) ~$40M OD Previews 

 

Prediction:

$32M OD 

$140M-$150M 5 day

 

With Guardians not looking so hot, Mario may actually be the biggest OWknd of the year 

[superduperm]

4 minutes ago, Starphanluke said:

Wouldn't above a $30m OD for a Wednesday release be kind of insane?

A $30M OD for an animated film on a Wednesday in April would be insanity.

 

I also disagree that this would only have a $140M 5-day opening with a $30M OD. A $30M OD makes $150M the floor.

[GOGODanca]

Just now, superduperm said:

A $30M OD for an animated film on a Wednesday in April would be insanity.

 

I also disagree that this would only have a $140M 5-day opening with a $30M OD. A $30M OD makes $150M the floor.

its not a traditional kids animated movie, its like endgame for video game players that happens to have kids appeal

[keysersoze123]

I definitely dont buy Majors as a reason for bad Guardians presale start. I think audience is getting jaded about SH movies. We have so many of them and ultimately audience will look for something else. Still MCU has the biggest fan base and still make big bucks. I think DC is in trouble. May be Batman movie once in 3 years will be good and I think Superman legacy unless its bad would do ok. But I think a blue beetle is going to find it difficult for sure. 

[TheFlatLannister]

4 minutes ago, superduperm said:

A $30M OD for an animated film on a Wednesday in April would be insanity.

 

I also disagree that this would only have a $140M 5-day opening with a $30M OD. A $30M OD makes $150M the floor.

Thursday won't be as big as WED and SAT and SUN will be softer because of Easter 

[SpiderByte]

25 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Well, A, Creed III was far into its run before the phone texts were leaked, showing he really is probably guilty.

And B, Creed III is not attracting families with kids or 45+ adults, both of whom are more likely to care than the fanbase for Creed III.

Nah man, there's no way you can possibly sell the idea that Jonathan Majors arrest affects movies that don't have Majors in them in any way more than movies with Majors as one of the main leads.

[SpiderByte]

17 minutes ago, Lion Roar said:

I would say it is definitely affecting fandom morale in general. Morale is at all time low right now and it’s hard to get hyped or enthusiastic about a new release, especially one that’s continuing the juvenile humor that people have been criticizing. This is why many people are excited about Secret Invasion’s trailer, because it shows a serious tone without the childish humor. 

You are correct that the grounded spy show has a different tone than the one with the talking raccoon and giant tree. Guardians being comedic has never been a problem before.

[SpiderByte]

26 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

its based on a video that tens of millions of guys grew up on, its not minions 

Yes, that they grew up on with...as children. Mario is a PG family film. Not exactly the male 18-34 demo

[charlie Jatinder]

28 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Super Mario	T-0	Jax	5	152	-	2,707	23,796	11.38%
		Phx	7	127	-	3,168	18,001	17.60%
		Ral	8	152	-	4,941	18,033	27.40%
	Total		20	431	-	10,816	59,830	18.08%

 

T-0 comps

 - Minions 2 - 3.638x (39.11m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - 4.84x (30.246m)

 - Space Jam (Fri) - 2.44x (31.96m)

 - Lightyear - 6.277x (30.76m)

 - Paw Patrol (Fri) - 7.704x (34.85m)

 - Sing 2 (OD Wed) - 2.74x (22.32m)

 

T-1 hr comps

 - Minions 2 - 2.411x (25.92m)

 - Lightyear - 4.356x (21.34m)

 

Could go either way with opening day vs previews.  I didn't pull midnight shows and those had been selling very well.  I tend to lean more on the OD comps and would guess we do finish a little above 30m.  I'll put my prediction at 31.5m for OD, including the midnight shows.

 

Yeah that’s what I have on low end. Can see it hit mid 30s depending on walkups.

[GOGODanca]

2 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Yes, that they grew up on with...as children. Mario is a PG family film. Not exactly the male 18-34 demo

many still play it, the presales for this was off the charts from like day 1, you don't think that was from parents of 4 year olds do you? 

[charlie Jatinder]

I am not really worried about GOTG pre-sales. QM start was for $150M+. 
 

What GOTG need to do is get great MCU reactions. It will be fine. 

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I am not really worried about GOTG pre-sales. QM start was for $150M+. 
 

What GOTG need to do is get great MCU reactions. It will be fine. 

No way its coming anywhere close to that number. Every MCU movie has a pattern of presales that wont change. Its steady state pace looks lower than what Ant 3 had and so its going to start final week at 125K at this rate. There is limit to how much it will grow then. 

[Cmasterclay]

Yeah I mean I'm beating a dead horse here that I've been saying for months (years tbh) but I talk to alot of casual movie friends that used to see the MCU movies and even they now kind of scoff and joke about them. They've blown alot of good will with the redundancy and bad movies at this point. Most superhero movies outside the biggest and best are going the way of the western in the late 60s if things don't course correct and some people here just won't admit that. Shazam and Ant Man should be a warning - it's easy for people to stop caring about these now.

[dobrevv]

iger must really regret plus cause so far its ruined their animation and people are more and more tired of star wars and mcu  shows

[TheFlatLannister]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

No way its coming anywhere close to that number. Every MCU movie has a pattern of presales that wont change. Its steady state pace looks lower than what Ant 3 had and so its going to start final week at 125K at this rate. There is limit to how much it will grow then. 

So sub $110M OW? That would be a disaster of epic proportions 

[keysersoze123]

9 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

So sub $110M OW? That would be a disaster of epic proportions 

As I said earlier, I predicted 111 in a game and previews around Ant 3. 

 

What Disney should do is early premier and let the reviews out early. That did help John Wick or even Dungeons to an extent(it looked dire for D&D before that). Waiting until 2 days to release does not help at all. If your movie is about spoilers its just not worth it. 

[interiorgatordecorator]

22 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I am not really worried about GOTG pre-sales. QM start was for $150M+. 
 

What GOTG need to do is get great MCU reactions. It will be fine. 

 

but do people still trust those reactions?

just yesterday I saw a good amount of people complain that early reactions had made them think Mario was going to be certified fresh, even in atman 3 you have to know how to interpret reactions to know it was going rotten; the reviews, which will only come out 2 days before, come way too late to dramatically changes things

Edited April 5, 2023 by interiorgatordecorator

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

11 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

So sub $110M OW? That would be a disaster of epic proportions 

 

Oh my god, the chaos on here and Twitter if this happens.

[SpiderByte]

23 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

many still play it, the presales for this was off the charts from like day 1, you don't think that was from parents of 4 year olds do you? 

....yes. Absolutely yes. This is the same target demo as Minions.