The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[froztking]

disney nd marvel should have expecting this after ant man being sh1t ! doc strange2, thor 4, she hulk, ant man 3 no franchise gonna survive after this many misfires ! they should have corrected there course in ant man at least but they didn't ! now gog vol3 facing the heat and even secret invasions initial viewership's will be lower too !if they get good reception then they will perform better but want reach what they could have if the franchise was fine state  ! this is what happens when u take audience for granted ! i'm afraid this can happen to next star wars movie too ! they better earn back the trust of core audience nd fans with those upcoming D+ stuff nd by announcing a proper movie nd promotional stuff 

[Willowra]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

That is the problem with all these Easter Eggs. They are thrown around without even having a plan. Initial post credit/ last scenes meant something. Nick Fury in 1st Iron Man set up avengers. Post Credit in Thor set up Avengers movies. Past 2 years its just something random. Let us see if the post credit scene in NWH leads to something. 

Avengers 5 has already been teased in the Shang-Chi mid-credit scene, and Feige had compared that scene with the Iron Man post-credit scene. It looks like GOTG3 might underperform, but if they want The Marvels to not flop, then they should announce the Avengers 5 cast at SDCC.

Edited April 6, 2023 by Willowra

[Porthos]

On 4/4/2023 at 11:48 PM, Porthos said:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-30 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	205	27411	29568	2157	7.30%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

265

 

Day 2 Comps

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	29.14		654	7403		0/329	33513/40916	18.09%		21117	10.21%		10.49m
L&T	45.66		563	4724		0/228	26876/31600	14.95%		16962	12.72%		13.24m
Bats	66.68		354	3235		0/248	29063/32298	10.02%		11757	18.35%		14.40m
BP2	57.94		469	3723		0/292	32828/36551	10.19%		16800	12.84%		16.22m
AM3	77.01		782	2801		0/231	29564/32365	8.65%		10475	20.59%		13.48m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

PRE-SALE NOTE #2: AM3 tickets went on sale at 5pm locally on day 1 as opposed to 6am locally for GOTG3, thus AM3's Day 2 sales are inflated.

 

Regal:     357/11075  [3.22% sold]
Matinee:    64/3555  [1.80% | 2.97% of all tickets sold]

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-29 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	205	27217	29568	2351	7.95%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

194

 

Day 3 Comps

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	30.06		419	7822		0/329	33094/40916	19.12%		21117	11.13%		10.82m
L&T	46.46		336	5060		0/228	26540/31600	16.01%		16962	13.86%		13.47m
Bats	69.31		157	3392		0/248	28906/32298	10.50%		11757	20.00%		14.97m
BP2	58.53		294	4017		0/292	32534/36551	10.99%		16800	13.99%		16.39m
AM3	76.88		257	3058		0/231	29307/32365	9.45%		10475	22.44%		13.45m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

PRE-SALE NOTE #2: AM3 tickets went on sale at 5pm locally on day 1 as opposed to 6am locally for GOTG3, thus AM3's Day 2 sales are inflated.

 

Regal:     406/11075  [3.67% sold]
Matinee:    69/3555  [1.94% | 2.93% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

T-x comps starting tomorrow...

[Mulder]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-29 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	205	27217	29568	2351	7.95%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

194

 

Day 3 Comps

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	30.06		419	7822		0/329	33094/40916	19.12%		21117	11.13%		10.82m
L&T	46.46		336	5060		0/228	26540/31600	16.01%		16962	13.86%		13.47m
Bats	69.31		157	3392		0/248	28906/32298	10.50%		11757	20.00%		14.97m
BP2	58.53		294	4017		0/292	32534/36551	10.99%		16800	13.99%		16.39m
AM3	76.88		257	3058		0/231	29307/32365	9.45%		10475	22.44%		13.45m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

PRE-SALE NOTE #2: AM3 tickets went on sale at 5pm locally on day 1 as opposed to 6am locally for GOTG3, thus AM3's Day 2 sales are inflated.

 

Regal:     406/11075  [3.67% sold]
Matinee:    69/3555  [1.94% | 2.93% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

T-x comps starting tomorrow...

Feel like best case scenario here looking at this is it has a The Batman curve where good reviews propel it but man is it being below even Ant-Man 3 here in terms of total seats sold at this same point in time not great.

[Dale Cooper]

Yeah, not looking good for Vol 3. Will probably recover a good bit from the start, but it could only take it so far. Mario looking very, very, very likely to beat it.

[Porthos]

28 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Feel like best case scenario here looking at this is it has a The Batman curve where good reviews propel it but man is it being below even Ant-Man 3 here in terms of total seats sold at this same point in time not great.

 

The one note of caution I'd have about AM3 is that film started out super hot in regards to pre-sales, but then cooled down even before the tepid buzz out of the premiere.

 

Initially it looked like it might open to 23m-25m before settling in at 20m-22m before, well, the bottom fell out. 

 

That is, there's perhaps reason to believe that AM3 had a doubly atypical pre-sale pattern in that it was even more frontloaded than a standard MCU film (there was wondering at the time if it was copying MoM in initial upfront interest) and got hit with the tepid WOM bat post premiere/reviews.

 

Now, unfortunately for GOTG3 is does have to clean up the mess left by AM3 (and Majors for that matter).  And having all of the attention sucked out of the room by Mario and Barbie is doing it absolutely no favors (and SW is waiting in the wings starting on Friday).

 

So if GOTG3 follows AM3's sales pattern then... yeah, that's not good.  I just think there's a few good reasons to think it wont.

 

...

 

...

 

...

 

Mind it might have a different sucky pre-sale pattern since it is, as I put it, cleaning up the mess left before it, but that'll only become really apparent with the fullness of time.

[THUNDER BIRD]

11 hours ago, Brainbug said:

 

There is an easy way out. Ditch Star Wars and Marvel and embrace Jurassic Park and Godzilla. There is no disappointment to find there and even if there is, it is to be ignored. Its a good place to live, i would know, ive been stuck there for quite some time.

There's no disappointment in Jurassic Park, even our worst open respectively and make Billion.

[Sckathian]

RE GotG3 - it's quite possible it's a bit over exposed but also I think Marvel might be attracting some "wait and see" on the quality front. Will know more as it reaches its release on that front.

[Ledmonkey96]

one minor possibility is that sense the retriever ticketing company is going under any company getting their replacement system up and running before GotG starts is holding off on starting pre-sales till after the switch over, my theater is doing the switchover on the 19th, another theater in the company group did the switchover yesterday which saved them from being busy for Mario since all online sales were down so people thought they were closed. Probably wouldn't effect the larger countries  though

Edited April 6, 2023 by Ledmonkey96

[keysersoze123]

On 4/4/2023 at 9:44 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Mario MTC1 Wed - 266574/1331022 4061248.68 8067 shows +76886

Mario MTC1 Thu - 169533/1352932 2579682.59 8119 shows

 

I think walkups will be slightly weaker today. Yesterday finished in 498K end. Thinking 35%drop today. Terrific hold for sure. 

[keysersoze123]

Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3

MTC1 wed - 2756/17472 127820.00 58 shows

MTC1 previews - 77513/1147203 1403541.53 7011 shows

MTC2 previews - 40374/585517 581879.35 3727 shows

 

Nothing much to say at this point. I am thinking Ant previews would be a good target with better finish than Ant. 

[TheFlatLannister]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3

MTC1 wed - 2756/17472 127820.00 58 shows

MTC1 previews - 77513/1147203 1403541.53 7011 shows

MTC2 previews - 40374/585517 581879.35 3727 shows

 

Nothing much to say at this point. I am thinking Ant previews would be a good target with better finish than Ant. 

So what's the ceiling? $130M assuming strong reactions? 

[keysersoze123]

Just now, TheFlatLannister said:

So what's the ceiling? $130M assuming strong reactions? 

its early. But friday presales dont scream a big multi. I put 111m in a game at KJ. It could go to 120m I think. Somewhere in low/mid 6x multi of previews is the likely. Unlike say Wakanda which had Veteran's day, this is a normal early May weekend. 

[GOGODanca]

 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

50 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3

MTC1 wed - 2756/17472 127820.00 58 shows

MTC1 previews - 77513/1147203 1403541.53 7011 shows

MTC2 previews - 40374/585517 581879.35 3727 shows

 

Nothing much to say at this point. I am thinking Ant previews would be a good target with better finish than Ant. 

looks like $20-22M start, if it ends well can see it hit $25M previews.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

looks like $20-22M start, if it ends well can see it hit $25M previews.

you are way too optimistic on this. it started lower than Ant 3 and is at lower pace as well. Comps with Wakanda or Thor also does not scream anything like 20m. You are expecting this to amp up to Thor/Wakanda level by final week and that is unlikely for sure. 

[GOGODanca]

Just taking a glance at my local locations and the 3d sales are much lower than quantumania was at, might see a lower atp, Wonder if you guys have noticed same?

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

How were Guardians 1 and 2 tracking by comparison if anyone has those numbers?

[misterpepp]

Chevalier tix should be available this Tuesday, April 11.

Edited April 6, 2023 by datpepper

[keysersoze123]

11 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

How were Guardians 1 and 2 tracking by comparison if anyone has those numbers?

Different era. Not comparable at all. We cannot even compare 2019 movies with today. Its always better to compare movies releasing close to each other. MCU as a brand is way bigger now than when those 2 movies opened. I think the 1st big presales breakout for MCU was BP1  which hit the Top 5 biggest seller at Fandango. Infinity War was bigger and Endgame is the biggest presale monster of all time beating Star Wars 7. No Way Home is easily the 2nd biggest and Dr Strange 2 is also a Top 5 at this point.