The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[el sid]

GotG3, counted today for Friday, May 5. 10 days to go:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 431 (13 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 339 (20 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 77 (19 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 40 (8 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 39 (12 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 530 (22 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 695 (29 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 2.151.

Comps (all four films counted on Monday of the release week = 6 days left for GotG3): Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (28.5M) had 3.981 sold tickets,
The Batman (39.4M true Friday) had 4.894,
Morbius (11.6M) had 1.163
and Thor 4 (40.5M) had 5.214 sold tickets.
SC (20.8M) had on Tuesday of the release week = 7 days left for GotG3 2.672 sold tickets
and Eternals (21.2M) had also on Tuesday of the release week 3.138 sold tickets.

Which multiplier will GotG3 have till next Monday? IMO it will at least double its sales. Of course more would be better. With very good reviews maybe it can catch up with Thor 4 in my theaters.

By the way the AMC site was very slow today with many error reports. Idk what could be the reason.

Edited April 25, 2023 by el sid

[keysersoze123]

21 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Margaret MTC1 previews - 1967/114436 24490.55 1055 shows +429

 

Almost non existent sales/meh pace. Let us see how this changes after Atom deal tomorrow. 

 

 

Margaret MTC1

Previews - 2464/120840 31063.82 1114 shows

Friday - 4533/179433 61121.07 1619 shows

 

No major burst due to Atom deal so far. Still thinking this will struggle to hit double digits.   

 

[TwoMisfits]

19 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Margaret MTC1

Previews - 2464/120840 31063.82 1114 shows

Friday - 4533/179433 61121.07 1619 shows

 

No major burst due to Atom deal so far. Still thinking this will struggle to hit double digits.   

 

Folks are just giving their Atom codes away on Slickdeals (whereas normally they are "sold") and there are so few posts, that I think this movie just doesn't have interest even at $5.  I mean, the codes are good through Sunday, so that could change...but I have 3 codes, and I don't think I'm using them (and I read the book as a kid, so I'd be in the "wanting to draw" demo).

 

Edit to Add: I don't see this movie with fence sitters...I see this movie just vacant...except maybe with 55+ women (maybe?), who wouldn't really use the TMobile Tuesday stuff...

Edited April 25, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 hours ago, M37 said:

Even if it were to match Monday sales over the next 3 days, it would be another 9K+ for ~124K total, and IMO more likely the acceleration begins and we see ~4.5x Mon over that time for 127-128K by T-7. I'm hesitant to rely much on Thor's daily pattern due to the shorter sales window and July 4th holiday, but BPWF should be a decent barometer for the rest of the run

 

 

My base case is that I think it'll be more or less steady from yesterday on Tuesday and Wednesday and maybe a larger jump on Thursday with the premiere into the 4k+ range (so just about 125k), and then assuming fairly good reviews a sizeable jump on Friday to a daily pace of 8k+ (as we've seen with reaction bumps for other movies and this is a double catalyst of reactions+reviews). From there I think it paces around 80% of BPWF dailies (raw numbers) for the rest of the run, with perhaps a worse Sat+Sun as the review bump wears off a bit but a somewhat better Tuesday+Wednesday trend as BPWF did have the midterms sucking up media attention. That will put it close to 19m previews. 

 

(I did read your post fully and I know it would be an outlier going by growth rate, but I just feel like this has good reason to behave abnormally. Is it my bias trying to create a better scenario for this? Perhaps, but I don't think it's unreasonable that buying patterns for the MCU have shifted a bit with repeated disappointments and more pertinently that the very late premiere relative to recent big MCU films also creates some modeling issues. We'll see how it goes. If it lands more in the range that you've predicted then props and that would be a big win for modeling by growth rate)

Edited April 25, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, Menor Reborn said:

My base case is that I think it'll be more or less steady from yesterday on Tuesday and Wednesday and maybe a larger jump on Thursday with the premiere into the 4k+ range (so just about 125k), and then assuming fairly good reviews a sizeable jump on Friday to a daily pace of 8k+ (as we've seen with reaction bumps for other movies and this is a double catalyst of reactions+reviews). From there I think it paces around 80% of BPWF dailies (raw numbers) for the rest of the run, with perhaps a worse Sat+Sun as the review bump wears off a bit but a somewhat better Tuesday+Wednesday trend as BPWF did have the midterms sucking up media attention. That will put it close to 19m previews. 

 

(I did read your post fully and I know it would be an outlier going by growth rate, but I just feel like this has good reason to behave abnormally. Is it my bias trying to create a better scenario for this? Perhaps, but I don't think it's unreasonable that buying patterns for the MCU have shifted a bit with repeated disappointments. We'll see how it goes. If it lands more in the range that you've predicted then props and that would be a big win for modeling by growth rate)

 

Since I do it all the time, I respect going with the gut.

 

Of course, mine said $15M previews last week and a $98M OW...so it seems our guts are not in the same place on the board:)...

 

[TwoMisfits]

Early sets for Little Mermaid:

 

3+ screens (16 showings) and 3 screens (14 showings) from my locals...not quite Mario, but hilariously, just SLIGHTLY more than GOTG 3 (now you know how awful their starting showing set still is - 16 and 13 showings still as of this moment)...

 

So, Cinemark is going equally in on this movie as it did with GOTG 3, which should be a good sign for this movie...

[ChipDerby]

I think one can reasonably assume that due to the previous MCU films, that slower presales would be expected. Thus, one could also assume that the ratio for the previews to OW will be larger as more people will wait. Comparing this film to the others may just end up being a fools errand.

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

I think one can reasonably assume that due to the previous MCU films, that slower presales would be expected. Thus, one could also assume that the ratio for the previews to OW will be larger as more people will wait. Comparing this film to the others may just end up being a fools errand.

I looked at Fri/Sat as well. Unlike say Wakanda whose thursday sales were muted due to Friday being Veteran's day, Guardians is playing over a normal spring weekend. 

 

Guardians MTC1

Friday - 69811/1273619 1254086.95 6906 shows (as of late night yesterday)

Sat - 68675/1335443 1131112.67 7251 shows (as of noon PST today).

 

Nothing about this screams a huge internal multiplier. Even the pace of friday/sat are about on par with thursday. Friday presales are worse in % relative to previews compared to Ant 3 while saturday is better. I still think this does around 6x previews rather than anything crazy.  We will know for sure next week. 

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY 3

 

THURSDAY PREVIEWS

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
229	6085	34342	17.7%

^{*Numbers taken as of 8:30pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

 ATP - $14.40

 

Added Regal chains so showings and seats sold will be way up. So I'll just ignore sold and seats added for today. I will add how many seats sold tomorrow. 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY 3

 

THURSDAY PREVIEWS

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
231	6217	34715	17.9%

^{*Numbers taken as of 7:00pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

132

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

ATP - $14.40

 

 

 

 Comparison: 

FAST X

ATP $13.60

[keysersoze123]

20 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Guardians MTC2 Previews - 69623/594509 989638.98 3768 shows +8236

 

This is 4 days and few hours of run.  20m previews would normally mean 260-280K finish. Let us see if it can get there. 

 

It stopped working since thursday and then started working today. :-)

Guardians MTC2 Previews - 71422/597745 1016748.97 3797 shows +1799

 

This is under 24 hours of data as I started slightly earlier. 

[Flamengo81]

So guys, I need a little help if possible.

 

I am considering (will depend if I will have enough time outside college and job) to start tracking some major releases here in Brazil, since it's a thing that no one does over here yet and That Waluigi Dude provides basically all data of Brazil box office by himself and he does a great job at it, but I think it would be nice to give the Brazil thread more information and interactivity. So I want to ask some advices you might know for a beginner like me. Is it difficult to run a script for it? Where is the best place to keep the data? and those kind of things.

 

I would appreciate a lot the insight of the masters of tracking that we have over here.

[Porthos]

So I had checked earlier in the run and didn't see anything, but sometime in the last couple of weeks the GOTG3 Marathon was added to two theaters locally with 79 tickets sold between the two showings.  Still a rounding error at this point, but more than enough that I'll be adding it starting with tonight's totals. 

 

I'll make a separate notation and report the rest of today's sales as per normal.

 

(Just did a check and it bumped up the comps approx .25m from what they were, FWIW.)

Edited April 26, 2023 by Porthos

[TheFlatLannister]

Margaret sales look pretty bad. I don't think it's sold a ticket in the past 24 hours😬

[Menor the Destroyer]

21 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:

So guys, I need a little help if possible.

 

I am considering (will depend if I will have enough time outside college and job) to start tracking some major releases here in Brazil, since it's a thing that no one does over here yet and That Waluigi Dude provides basically all data of Brazil box office by himself and he does a great job at it, but I think it would be nice to give the Brazil thread more information and interactivity. So I want to ask some advices you might know for a beginner like me. Is it difficult to run a script for it? Where is the best place to keep the data? and those kind of things.

 

I would appreciate a lot the insight of the masters of tracking that we have over here.

As far as scripts, I'm not sure how much coding experience you have but I think there are plenty of resources online for web scraping. You'll have to check the individual website to see which method works best. I tend to use Python, there are some basic web scraping libraries like BeautifulSoup and such or there is browser simulation like Selenium for pages that need to render JavaScript to show the seatmaps. Generally you want to find all the showtime links for a particular movie and be able to navigate to each link and count all the seats (Inspect Element is your friend in terms of finding out the particular page structure and what to search for in your code). 

 

As far as keeping the data I think a spreadsheet of some sort is the best format. 

[JustLurking]

23 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:

So guys, I need a little help if possible.

 

I am considering (will depend if I will have enough time outside college and job) to start tracking some major releases here in Brazil, since it's a thing that no one does over here yet and That Waluigi Dude provides basically all data of Brazil box office by himself and he does a great job at it, but I think it would be nice to give the Brazil thread more information and interactivity. So I want to ask some advices you might know for a beginner like me. Is it difficult to run a script for it? Where is the best place to keep the data? and those kind of things.

 

I would appreciate a lot the insight of the masters of tracking that we have over here.

Web scraping isn't too difficult (but largely depends on the website) but it can be tricky if you are completely new to coding.

[TheFlatLannister]

21 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:

So guys, I need a little help if possible.

 

I am considering (will depend if I will have enough time outside college and job) to start tracking some major releases here in Brazil, since it's a thing that no one does over here yet and That Waluigi Dude provides basically all data of Brazil box office by himself and he does a great job at it, but I think it would be nice to give the Brazil thread more information and interactivity. So I want to ask some advices you might know for a beginner like me. Is it difficult to run a script for it? Where is the best place to keep the data? and those kind of things.

 

I would appreciate a lot the insight of the masters of tracking that we have over here.

1. Running a script will save you so much time..(Thats what i do since im a Univeristy student). Counting by inspect elements is good but it takes a long time

2. Get a web scraper as a google chrome extension. Set up the program to count ticket prices, seats sold, seats available etc 

3. Be careful with scrapers because you can get IP blocked, so i run the scraper through a proxy and alternate IP servers. Don't overload their servers so space it out. (increase Page load delay and Request interval sets to avoid detection) 

4. Export all the data to excel, it will save you so much time

 

If you need help setting it up just PM me

[TheFlatLannister]

On 4/24/2023 at 9:07 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret.

 

Thursday

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
28	64	3985	1.6%

^{*Numbers taken as of 9:00pm EST}

ATP - $11.79

As @keysersoze123 stated, non-existent 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret.

 

Thursday

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
28	76	3985	1.9%

^{*Numbers taken as of 10:00pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

ATP - $11.79

 

I have no comps for this so I'll just post raw numbers

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

16 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Margaret sales look pretty bad. I don't think it's sold a ticket in the past 24 hours😬

At my local Amc it’s sold 15 tickets for Friday including mine.

[Flamengo81]

Thank you all for the responses. Appreciate it! 😅

[ky02121]

Margaret at my local Showcase Cinemas has only sold 2 tickets for this Friday. 1 screen 4 showings.