The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[ThomasNicole]

7 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Didn’t Wonder Woman 1984 beat Soul something like 2.2bn to 1.8bn when they dropped? 

Yes they announced a few days after Soul take the record [but to be fair, Wonder Woman was nearly twice as long, Soul was still more watched]

[GOGODanca]

I mean kids movies are always gonna dominate streaming, parents just plop it on for their kids to watch so they can get 2 hours of peace

[M37]

37 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I am not worried about Guardians opening under 100 or anything like that either. T-17 to T-10 was bad, but I think those days are still more in the fan buying period of sales. From T-10 you generally see movies with longer PS periods start to bump and I think that's where the GA starts paying more attention to sales. My expectation is that Guardians will play more like other MCU sequels and have bumps throughout this week rather than AM3 which stagnated after reactions. If it does so then after its review boost on Friday it can pace on par with WF/Thor and way ahead of AM3, which would lead to a strong final week. Of course this could all be denial as the Guardians are my favorite MCU characters and I don't want to see this flop, but I do think that the fanbase/GA interest ratio here is much different than AM3 and that will show this week. If by next Sunday the relative pace hasn't improved too much vs Thor/WF and is closer to Ant-Man then I will start to get on the doom train. 

I mostly agree with this, with the exception that I have found (without getting into weeds of theory and methodology) weekend sales to be especially relevant (so a T14 cutoff rather than T-10). That GOTG3 sales continued to struggle on Fri & Sat is largely why the math came out lower

 

With that said, both Philly & Sacto had good Sundays, and if Alpha update follows suit, it would be the first positive signal, perhaps the start of a trendline that pushes up the extrapolated Thursday and OW values. But given the lower stating value, it’s going to need to do more than just match pace (growth rate) of Thor and BPWF to really make $100M look more likely than not 

[keysersoze123]

Awesome job @Menor Reborn. 

 

Once Guardians opens, it would interesting to comp with FX, Mermaid, Indy and Flash at similar points. 

 

I am also with you on sub 100m. I think the push late last week is working. Alpha pace is also up. Let us see how things go this week ahead of reactions/review late this week. 

[vafrow]

With regards to GOTG3 avoiding it's worst case scenarios, what's the more likely variable to really shift. Do we think that preview number currently in the $14-15M range can push up to $16-17M or more potentially, or is it more likely that it stays close to forecast, but the internal multiplier exceeds what we've been seeing out of Marvel in the 5-6X range, and see that leg out to 7-8X or so.

[Menor the Destroyer]

9 minutes ago, vafrow said:

With regards to GOTG3 avoiding it's worst case scenarios, what's the more likely variable to really shift. Do we think that preview number currently in the $14-15M range can push up to $16-17M or more potentially, or is it more likely that it stays close to forecast, but the internal multiplier exceeds what we've been seeing out of Marvel in the 5-6X range, and see that leg out to 7-8X or so.

The preview comps can absolutely increase significantly with a good final week. As for multi it should be able to clear 6, but 7-8x is impossible. 

[stripe]

 

5 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

The preview comps can absolutely increase significantly with a good final week. As for multi it should be able to clear 6, but 7-8x is impossible. 

 

So we need to reach 20M previews to have an OW of 120M.

 

GotG3 will behave like Venom in its last week of previews. IT HAS TO!

[keysersoze123]

20m previews will need alpha to hit 360K. Say 120K final day it will need 240K by end of Wednesday. 

 

Something like

 

125K T-7 // Thursday around 6K

138K T-6

151K T-5 

168K T-4

188K T-3

210K T-2

240K T-1

360K finish

 

Can this happen @charlie Jatinder/ @M37 / @Menor Reborn

[THUNDER BIRD]

@charlie Jatinder Has said that there is no chance of Sub 100 opening and I'm going with his expertise and analysis.

 

He says GOTG 3 is opening 100+ then it is opening 100+

[ThomasNicole]

I don´t think 7x multiplier is happening, but i can see 6.5 - 6.7x depending on reception, i still firmly believe people don´t feel rush to see it so quick like other recent Marvel movies  

 

Anedoctal but i know a lot of people excited to see it and they didn´t bother at all to buy in advance, but they buyed before for other MCU titles

[keysersoze123]

I think @M37 only predicted worst case scenario for sub 100m. I have not seen that many sub 100m predictions. I am thinking 18/111 for now. If it gets universal acclaim then the bar will go even higher. But let us see where things stand this friday. I am seeing the movie(my 1st MCU in theater since NWH.).

[Menor the Destroyer]

16 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

20m previews will need alpha to hit 360K. Say 120K final day it will need 240K by end of Wednesday. 

 

Something like

 

125K T-7 // Thursday around 6K

138K T-6

151K T-5 

168K T-4

188K T-3

210K T-2

240K T-1

360K finish

 

Can this happen @charlie Jatinder/ @M37 / @Menor Reborn

I think the finish is doable, the most optimistic part seems to be 6k Thu, if it gets there then the rest just seems like a normal MCU trend (I would say probably drop in pace on T-5 with that being Saturday post reviews followed by a bigger recovery on T-4). But we need to either see strong recovery this week or a big bump post reviews.

 

For 100m I guess it would only need 16-17 and I don't think that needs anything special, it just needs to not collapse like AM3. The smaller starting value makes it easier to have a higher growth rate compared to the big 2022 comps. 

Edited April 24, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[M37]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

20m previews will need alpha to hit 360K. Say 120K final day it will need 240K by end of Wednesday. 

 

Something like

 

125K T-7 // Thursday around 6K

138K T-6

151K T-5 

168K T-4

188K T-3

210K T-2

240K T-1

360K finish

 

Can this happen @charlie Jatinder/ @M37 / @Menor Reborn

Based on my math: NO - that would be a +188% increase in the final week, and +50% in final day. Compared to recent tentpole films from T-7 to T-F and T1-->TF

• AMWQ = +86.4% / +35.2%
• BPWF = +117.4% / +43.3%
• Thor = +111.0% / +44.5%
• Batman (Th Only) = +140.7% / +43.7%
• JWD = +209.7% / +67.8%

It's just not reasonable IMO to expect JWD level backloaded sales pattern from an established MCU brand, especially with current pace so much lower as release approaches. Getting to 300K from a ~125K T-7 (+140%) would itself be a win given the typical trajectory, similar to Batman with a review driven late acceleration, and that (outlier) outcome would be in range of AMWQ at ~$17M

 

[keysersoze123]

14 minutes ago, M37 said:

Based on my math: NO - that would be a +188% increase in the final week, and +50% in final day. Compared to recent tentpole films from T-7 to T-F and T1-->TF

• AMWQ = +86.4% / +35.2%
• BPWF = +117.4% / +43.3%
• Thor = +111.0% / +44.5%
• Batman (Th Only) = +140.7% / +43.7%
• JWD = +209.7% / +67.8%

It's just not reasonable IMO to expect JWD level backloaded sales pattern from an established MCU brand, especially with current pace so much lower as release approaches. Getting to 300K from a ~125K T-7 (+140%) would itself be a win given the typical trajectory, similar to Batman with a review driven late acceleration, and that (outlier) outcome would be in range of AMWQ at ~$17M

 

If Thor did not do it with weird sales pattern due to July 4. This wont. 

 

Ant finish was 311624/1097707 5169321.82. 

[ThomasNicole]

I don´t think +140% vs 111-118% for L&T / WF is a win at all considering how much lower is started, i would say is bad actually 

 

The fact that is started so lower should help to open more room to have a way bigger growth in the final days compared to movies that burned a lot of demand in the early days, if it ended up just 20% bigger than WF increase that would be very disappointing 

 

I know MCU titles are extremely predictable overall but that just doesn´t look like best case scenario to me, looks reasonable enough to happen if it keeps following the expected pace based on other recent movies, but that´s it. 

 

Best case scenario to me is still being an anomaly in the final days because of the multiple reasons we discussed in the past weeks, and then match the high end tracking which is 135M. 

 

And Batman burn demand with those earlier screenings, the pace and growth for THU wouldn´t be closer to JWD if it wasn´t for the many screenings on TUE / WED?

 

 

[M37]

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

And Batman burn demand with those earlier screenings, the pace and growth for THU wouldn´t be closer to JWD if it wasn´t for the many screenings on TUE / WED?

The overall growth (including EA) for Alpha Batman tickets from T-7 was only +98%. The EA shows, which were largely full by the start of that last week, helped to pull demand to the earlier days, decrease the Thursday base level of sales, open up more PLF seats, and so increase the growth for Thursday shows. Same for TGM, which was +148% overall, but +194% for just Thursday shows

 

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

I don´t think +140% vs 111-118% for L&T / WF is a win at all considering how much lower is started, i would say is bad actually 

 

The fact that is started so lower should help to open more room to have a way bigger growth in the final days compared to movies that burned a lot of demand in the early days, if it ended up just 20% bigger than WF increase that would be very disappointing 

 

I know MCU titles are extremely predictable overall but that just doesn´t look like best case scenario to me, looks reasonable enough to happen if it keeps following the expected pace based on other recent movies, but that´s it. 

I started to respond to the rest of your post, because the bolded portion is a point worth addressing, but given how much (unexpected!) conversation my post has generated - on here and elsewhere! - I think I'm going to write up a longer explainer of why the data at present looks so bleak to me

 

The sneak preview: when forecasting sales and potential growth rate:

[ZackM]

23 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

 

The IMAX Guardians of the Galaxy Marathon Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days
4/22/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	57	57	4,130	17,116	24.13%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	0	0	0
ATP
$46.33

 

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	2	5	3	2	4
Seats Added	216	847	321	194	480
Seats Sold	2,049	2,119	1,831	1,560	2,251
4/22/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	431	6,886	108,040	1,121,731	9.63%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	4	25	102	210
ATP
$17.67

 

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 Comps
	Ant-Man: Quantumania		Black Panther: WF		Thor: Love & Thunder
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10
T-11
T-12	$12.8	$12.7	$15.5	$16.1	$14.8	$15.2
T-13	$12.8	$12.7	$15.6	$16.1	$14.9	$15.3
T-14	$12.8	$12.7	$15.7	$16.3	$15.1	$15.6
T-15	$12.8	$12.7	$15.9	$16.5	$15.2	$15.7
T-16	$12.8	$12.7	$16.0	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8
T-17	$12.8	$12.6	$15.9	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8

 

 

The IMAX Guardians of the Galaxy Marathon Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days
4/23/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	57	57	4,183	17,116	24.44%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	0	0	0
ATP
$46.33

 

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	2	5	3	2
Seats Added	0	216	847	321	194
Seats Sold	3,061	2,049	2,119	1,831	1,560
4/23/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	431	6,886	111,101	1,121,731	12.85%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	4	26	109	219
ATP
$17.63

 

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 Comps
	Ant-Man: Quantumania		Black Panther: WF		Thor: Love & Thunder
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10
T-11	$12.9	$12.8	$15.6	$16.2	$14.7	$15.2
T-12	$12.8	$12.7	$15.5	$16.1	$14.8	$15.2
T-13	$12.8	$12.7	$15.6	$16.1	$14.9	$15.3
T-14	$12.8	$12.7	$15.7	$16.3	$15.1	$15.6
T-15	$12.8	$12.7	$15.9	$16.5	$15.2	$15.7
T-16	$12.8	$12.7	$16.0	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8
T-17	$12.8	$12.6	$15.9	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8

Edited April 24, 2023 by ZackM

[MovieMan89]

I don’t want Guardians to fail if it’s as good as the predecessors, but there’s a part of me as well that would be really glad to see the implosion of CBM. It’s just been too much for too long now. 

[Brainbug]

20 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I don’t want Guardians to fail if it’s as good as the predecessors, but there’s a part of me as well that would be really glad to see the implosion of CBM. It’s just been too much for too long now. 

 

I get that. Normally id say that that rooting for certain movies to fail is a bit silly, but while i still dont know about the GA, the infamous superhero fatigue has certainly struck me. I think thats why i get the most joy out of  CBM films like Logan, The Batman or a show like Invincible now - basically, everything that one could call a "generic" Superhero movie has become boring to me. Weve just seen everything already. I personally woundt mind it at all if the genre fizzles out and we get more variety for the big blockbusters.

 

Sorry Mods for going Off-Topic a bit with this

[Eric Lasagna]

Quorum Updates

Fast X T-25: 56% Awareness, 6.29 Interest

The Flash T-53: 49.43%, 6.04

Insidious: The Red Door T-74: 37.72%, 5.79

Barbie T-88: 43.81%, 4.97

Blue Beetle T-116: 24.11%, 5.34

White Bird: A Wonder Story T-123: 14.55%, 4.95

 

Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret T-4: 23.62% Awareness, 4.87 Interest

Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 21% chance of 10M

Known IP Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Known IP Interest: 0% chance of 10M

 

Big George Foreman T-4: 34.34% Awareness, 5.45 Interest

Final Awareness: 36% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 41% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 33% chance of 10M

 

The Boogeyman T-39: 32.36% Awareness, 5.95 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 84% chance of 10M, 58% chance of 20M, 37% chance of 30M

T-30 Interest: 81% chance of 10M, 65% chance of 20M, 58% chance of 30M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 67% chance of 30M

Horror Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 50% chance of 30M