The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Eric Prime]

On 4/30/2023 at 8:53 PM, Eric Foreman said:

The Little Mermaid Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-25 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	153	702	28586	2.46%

 

Comp - T-25

0.128x of Black Panther 2 (3.59M)

0.817x of Mario (25.91M)

The Little Mermaid Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-24 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	153	757	28586	2.65%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 55

 

Comp - T-24

4.351x of Sonic 2 (27.19M)

0.135x of Black Panther 2 (3.79M)

0.844x of Avatar 2 (14.35M)

0.767x of Mario (24.31M)

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	182	26871	27710	839	3.03%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

28

 

T-18 Comp:

	%		Sold T-18	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	122.13		48	687		0/92	13414/14101	4.87%		16962	4.95%		9.95m
NTTD	170.88		56	491		0/135	20500/20991	2.34%		16800	4.99%		10.59m
JWD	38.73		99	2166		0/184	22643/24809	8.73%		33839	2.48%		6.97m
TG:M	26.52		307	3164		0/257	33053/36217	8.74%		11474	7.31%		5.24m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

F9 COMP NOTE:  The F9 comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     124/10118  [1.23% sold]
Matinee:    15/3517  [0.43% | 1.79% of all tickets sold]

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	182	26837	27707	870	3.14%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

31

 

T-17 Comp:

	%		Sold T-17	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	111.83		91	778		0/92	13323/14101	5.52%		16962	5.13%		9.11m
NTTD	154.80		71	562		0/136	20817/21379	2.63%		16800	5.18%		9.60m
JWD	39.30		48	2214		0/188	22929/25143	8.81%		33839	2.57%		7.07m
TG:M	25.69		223	3387		0/261	33007/36394	9.31%		11474	7.58%		5.08m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

F9 COMP NOTE:  The F9 comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     128/10115  [1.27% sold]
Matinee:    17/3515  [0.48% | 1.95% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Starting to pick up a little bit...

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-25 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	154	21263	21994	731	3.32%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

60

 

Regal:       100/5782  [1.73% sold]
Matinee:          7/621  [1.13% | 0.96% of all tickets sold]
3D:            130/4329  [3.00% | 17.78% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

No comps today as I don't have anything remotely suitable for T-25.  I'll start roping comps back into tomorrow at T-24.

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-24 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	154	21201	21991	790	3.59%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

59

 

%

Sold T-24

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

JWD

46.14

22

1712

0/171

22072/23784

7.20%

10966

7.20%

8.31m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        120/5779  [2.08% sold]
Matinee:         16/621  [2.58% | 2.03% of all tickets sold]
3D:            130/4326  [3.01% | 16.46% of all tickets sold]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 0.61217x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-24 [16.19m]   

 

=======

 

Removed the Sonic 2 and Aladdin comps for now as T-24 was their first day of sales. Was as well for TLK, but at least that's not an insanely stupid number.  Went ahead and added JWD (thanks for the suggestion Jat 👍) and was surprised at the strength of the comp. 

 

I'm even more surprised at the staying power TLM has shown since it's third day of sales.  It's basically been flat the last three days (59, 60, 59) which...  Well let me put it this way, I'm seriously thinking TLM has a good chance of clearing 10m in previews now.  Still very early in the pre-sale run, but I've been impressed with it so far.

 

And here's the really interesting bit (and perhaps a tiny bit scary).  It's sold relatively few tickets for the Early Access shows.  Locally at least.  Right now the EA shows (seven in total) account for only 71 of the total tickets sold [8.99% of all tickets sold].  And of those 71, nearly half are at Century Arden (32).

 

That tells me there isn't much of a fan rush to see this yet and that it has a lot of room to grow as we get closer to release.

 

Guess we'll find out soon enough.

[Porthos]

On 5/1/2023 at 2:14 AM, Porthos said:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	227	26231	31950	5719	17.90%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	136
Total Seats Sold Today	506

 

T-4 Comps:

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	123.65		305	4625		0/193	22688/27313	16.93%		9196	62.19%		19.19m
ET	188.13		191	3040		0/101	12928/15968	19.04%		6409	89.23%		20.20m
MoM	39.85		844	14353		0/353	28327/42680	33.63%		21117	27.08%		14.34m
L&T	59.83		590	9559		0/251	24142/33701	28.36%		16962	33.72%		17.35m
Bats	94.98		368	6021		0/297	30769/36790	16.37%		11757	48.64%		20.52m
BP2	56.43		618	10134		2/308	27930/38064	26.62%		16800	34.04%		15.80m
AM3	86.47		303	6614		0/251	27082/33696	19.63%		10475	54.60%		15.13m
JWD	108.56		649	5268		0/224	22664/27932	18.86%		10966	52.15%		19.54m
TGM	80.21		476	7130		0/271	30179/37309	19.11%		11474	49.84%		15.45m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

BW & ET COMP NOTE:  The Black Widow comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.17594x to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post, while Eternals has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x purely to reflect the difference in ATP.

 

Regal:     1270/11675  [10.88% sold]
Matinee:    231/3229  [7.15% | 4.04% of all tickets sold]
3D:            652/5614  [11.61% | 11.40% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	273	29558	35864	6306	17.58%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	46
Total Net Seats Added Today	3914
Total Net Seats Sold Today	587

 

T-3 Comps:

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	123.79		469	5094		0/193	22219/27313	18.65%		9196	68.57%		19.22m
ET	183.47		397	3437		0/118	13711/17148	20.04%		6409	98.39%		19.70m
MoM	40.97		1037	15390		0/368	28239/43629	35.27%		21117	29.86%		14.75m
L&T	62.38		550	10109		0/251	23592/33701	30.00%		16962	37.18%		18.09m
Bats	93.16		748	6769		0/324	31752/38521	17.57%		11757	53.64%		20.12m
BP2	57.08		914	11048		2/355	30945/41993	26.31%		16800	37.54%		15.98m
AM3	88.97		474	7088		0/269	28018/35106	20.19%		10475	60.20%		15.57m
JWD	104.01		795	6063		0/281	26773/32836	18.46%		10966	57.51%		18.72m
TGM	81.33		624	7754		1/324	33685/41439	18.71%		11474	54.96%		15.66m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

BW & ET COMP NOTE:  The Black Widow comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.17594x to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post, while Eternals has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x purely to reflect the difference in ATP.

 

Regal:     1442/11427  [12.62% sold]
Matinee:    263/3276  [8.03% | 4.17% of all tickets sold]
3D:            783/6396  [12.24% | 12.42% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Bit back down to earn after yesterday, but still much better than it had been.  Gun to my head, kinda feeling 18m-ish to 19m in previews right now.  We'll see if it keeps up the momentum as we enter the final stretch.

Edited May 2, 2023 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

22 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Went ahead and added JWD (thanks for the suggestion Jat 👍) and was surprised at the strength of the comp

Oh I was thinking of John Wick 4. JWD comp works but I thought you were already doing it.

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Oh I was thinking of John Wick 4. JWD comp works but I thought you were already doing it.

 

Oh, I see.  I scanned this comment:

 

On 5/1/2023 at 2:32 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

Think John Wick 4 could be something as comp.

 

Also gonna suggest something drastic here, JW4 comp for TLM.

 

And thought you said JWD instead of JW4 (also really wasn't paying close attention to which post you were quoting). My bad.  Problem with Wick 4, besides it being R-rated, is it doesn't start up for a couple more days.  I'll think about it though.  

 

[M37]

On 4/30/2023 at 11:09 AM, M37 said:

To emphasize: Anything above 146K for Alpha by Monday would be staying in current range, 150K or above is really good, but with the review bump coming earlier in this cycle, won't really know how much of that increase is pulling sales earlier vs a sustained change in direction that will carry all the way to the finish line

 

Based on Fri & Sat, the 150K by T-4 threshold is in play. Really watching Sunday, when sales typically pick up vs the Fri/Sat numbers, but in this specific case we have the initial review & fan screening surge potentially wearing off at the same time as that expected upward turn, so could wind up around flat instead. Whatever the specific value, a doubling in ticket sales from T-4 to T-F would still be a high end result; Batman (Thur only) was +106% for reference, and no MCU film from NWH and on managed better than +88% [300K final would be $16.5M+, and my current projection is for a 280-290K (270-300K) final]

 

Just want to add .... I know what ranges industry tracking (and the hope of many people here) are sitting at, but I'm gonna stand firm in that from the data in hand at this point, topping AMWQ's $106M should be viewed as a win, reaching an OW of $110-$115M from would be an over-performance, and vaulting even higher - into the $120-$130M range - would require pretty much every open question to break favorably over the next week. If that's where one wants to set the bar for success, you do you, just want to emphasize the probability of reaching that level is well below 50% based on my methodology (but of course the unexpected can and sometimes does happen).

 

Finally, a heads up: I have a major family event this week, so may not be able to post full analysis & charts later in the week,  but will probably still be around to chime in

The Good News: Now 4 days of data past review review release, the bump has sustained, to the point where its reasonable to no longer call it a bump and just view it as a full change in direction. Does appear that GOTG3 looks to be pulling a Batman, where hesitation over the brand limited sales until an assurance of quality broke the dam, and not only jumped away from AMWQ, but leaped over Thor and BPWF, and we should expect it to continue to outgrow other MCU comps - and maybe even Batman - through to the finish

 

One thing I have learned in my analysis is to never bet against a film's acceleration, that growth rates are exponentially additive. But with that said, there is strong enough correlation that there are still upper bounds. Taking the last 3-4 days at face value (ie not adjusting for potential of review bump inflating numbers at all), then reaching $19M or even $20M from here is pushing the envelope of those upper bounds

[ZackM]

23 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

Good day.

 

The IMAX Guardians of the Galaxy Marathon Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days
4/30/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	57	57	4,746	17,116	27.73%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	0	0	1
ATP
$46.29

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	5	7	8	1	9
Seats Added	265	679	1,256	167	1,914
Seats Sold	10,424	7,044	7,901	5,088	4,502
4/30/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	431	6,939	153,018	1,128,318	13.56%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	5	49	182	346
ATP
$17.19

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 Comps
	Ant-Man: Quantumania		Black Panther: WF		Thor: Love & Thunder
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4	$14.3	$14.0	$16.1	$16.7	$16.0	$16.4
T-5	$13.8	$13.6	$15.9	$16.4	$15.5	$15.9
T-6	$13.5	$13.4	$15.8	$16.3	$15.2	$15.7
T-7	$13.1	$13.0	$15.5	$16.1	$14.9	$15.4
T-8	$13.0	$12.8	$15.5	$16.1	$14.9	$15.3
T-9	$12.9	$12.7	$15.6	$16.1	$14.8	$15.3
T-10	$13.0	$12.9	$15.6	$16.2	$14.7	$15.2
T-11	$12.9	$12.8	$15.6	$16.2	$14.7	$15.2
T-12	$12.8	$12.7	$15.5	$16.1	$14.8	$15.2
T-13	$12.8	$12.7	$15.6	$16.1	$14.9	$15.3
T-14	$12.8	$12.7	$15.7	$16.3	$15.1	$15.6
T-15	$12.8	$12.7	$15.9	$16.5	$15.2	$15.7
T-16	$12.8	$12.7	$16.0	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8
T-17	$12.8	$12.6	$15.9	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8

 

 

 

The IMAX Guardians of the Galaxy Marathon Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days
5/1/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	57	57	4,928	17,116	28.79%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	0	0	1
ATP
$46.30

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	142	5	7	8	1
Seats Added	18,074	265	679	1,256	167
Seats Sold	15,307	10,424	7,044	7,901	5,088
5/1/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	431	7,081	168,325	1,146,392	14.68%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	5	58	207	402
ATP
$17.06

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 Comps
	Ant-Man: Quantumania		Black Panther: WF		Thor: Love & Thunder
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3	$14.8	$14.5	$16.4	$16.9	$16.6	$17.0
T-4	$14.3	$14.0	$16.1	$16.7	$16.0	$16.4
T-5	$13.8	$13.6	$15.9	$16.4	$15.5	$15.9
T-6	$13.5	$13.4	$15.8	$16.3	$15.2	$15.7
T-7	$13.1	$13.0	$15.5	$16.1	$14.9	$15.4
T-8	$13.0	$12.8	$15.5	$16.1	$14.9	$15.3
T-9	$12.9	$12.7	$15.6	$16.1	$14.8	$15.3
T-10	$13.0	$12.9	$15.6	$16.2	$14.7	$15.2
T-11	$12.9	$12.8	$15.6	$16.2	$14.7	$15.2
T-12	$12.8	$12.7	$15.5	$16.1	$14.8	$15.2
T-13	$12.8	$12.7	$15.6	$16.1	$14.9	$15.3
T-14	$12.8	$12.7	$15.7	$16.3	$15.1	$15.6
T-15	$12.8	$12.7	$15.9	$16.5	$15.2	$15.7
T-16	$12.8	$12.7	$16.0	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8
T-17	$12.8	$12.6	$15.9	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Feels like 120-130 is where it’s going to land when the weekend is said and done. While still a large number, it’s a 25-30% drop in ticket sales from Vol.2’s OW.

[M37]

22 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

 

The IMAX Guardians of the Galaxy Marathon Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days
5/1/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	57	57	4,928	17,116	28.79%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	0	0	1
ATP
$46.30

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	142	5	7	8	1
Seats Added	18,074	265	679	1,256	167
Seats Sold	15,307	10,424	7,044	7,901	5,088
5/1/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	431	7,081	168,325	1,146,392	14.68%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	5	58	207	402
ATP
$17.06

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 Comps
	Ant-Man: Quantumania		Black Panther: WF		Thor: Love & Thunder
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3	$14.8	$14.5	$16.4	$16.9	$16.6	$17.0
T-4	$14.3	$14.0	$16.1	$16.7	$16.0	$16.4
T-5	$13.8	$13.6	$15.9	$16.4	$15.5	$15.9
T-6	$13.5	$13.4	$15.8	$16.3	$15.2	$15.7
T-7	$13.1	$13.0	$15.5	$16.1	$14.9	$15.4
T-8	$13.0	$12.8	$15.5	$16.1	$14.9	$15.3
T-9	$12.9	$12.7	$15.6	$16.1	$14.8	$15.3
T-10	$13.0	$12.9	$15.6	$16.2	$14.7	$15.2
T-11	$12.9	$12.8	$15.6	$16.2	$14.7	$15.2
T-12	$12.8	$12.7	$15.5	$16.1	$14.8	$15.2
T-13	$12.8	$12.7	$15.6	$16.1	$14.9	$15.3
T-14	$12.8	$12.7	$15.7	$16.3	$15.1	$15.6
T-15	$12.8	$12.7	$15.9	$16.5	$15.2	$15.7
T-16	$12.8	$12.7	$16.0	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8
T-17	$12.8	$12.6	$15.9	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8

Pretty might right where other comps suggested it would go, just below 170K 

 

From here, a ~90% increase is what I would pencil in, which gets to 320K final, or ~$18M (presuming Alpha doesn’t over/under index). For Reference, Batman Thur was +85%, and GOTG3 has been running ahead, but with review bump starting on T-2. If it continues to beat the checkpoint marks - or even cools off a bit - then will adjust the math accordingly 

[keysersoze123]

I would say 20K,25K and around 95K final day finish. So around 310K finish. I think previews are honing in on Ant 3 previews. 

[TwoMisfits]

So, Disney has pissed off Cinemark:) - or GOTG3 presales are underperforming around here...very little GOTG 3 expansion and some of the lowest MCU sets (I'll have to go back and check Ant Man 3 b/c these are close to identical - didn't expect that in Jan 2023 for GOTG 3)...

 

1st local set - DnD STAYS on a full screen and GOTG 3 keeps its 4 screens/16 showings (10 PLF/6 reg) - no expansion.

2nd local - GOTG 3 adds a few showings and is up to 4.5 screens/18 showings (4 PLF / 14 reg) - DND stays, but only on a single showing

 

Edited May 2, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[stripe]

If previews to OW ratio is the same as AMQ (x6)

18M - 108M OW

19M - 114M OW

20M - 120M OW

 

If previews to OW ratio is the same as BPWF (x6.5)

18M - 117M OW

19M - 123M OW

20M - 130M OW

 

If previews to OW ratio is x7 (the ceiling)

18M - 126M OW

19M - 133M OW

20M - 140M OW

[el sid]

GotG3 counted yesterday for Thursday, May 4. 3 days to go.
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 472 (10 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 648 (14 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 110 (18 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 96 (8 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 181 (14 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 900 (27 showtimes) 
LA (AMC Universal): 1.490 (36 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 4.303. 

Up modest 10.5% since last Saturday.
Comps (all three films counted on Monday of the release week): Wakanda Forever (28M) had 6.765 sold tickets = 57.5% = 16.1M from previews.
Morbius (5.7M) had 1.454 = 2.67x = 15.2M.
And SC (8.8M) had 2.561 sold tickets = 1.52x = 13.4M.
Thor 4 (29M) had 7.843 sold tickets on Tuesday of the release week (= 1 day left for GotG3) = 50% with 1 day left = 14.5M+.

 

Not the jump I hoped for. The average preview number from my comps (without Thor 4 because I could only guess here) is 14.9M at the moment.

Maybe the jump till today was better. New numbers in a few hours.

[keysersoze123]

Wakanda opened during Veterans day and so its IM was higher than norm. its friday presales finished higher than DS2. Nothing about Guardians screams crazy backloaded weekend. 

 

Guardians

MTC2 Previews(T-3) - 108811/644742 1561043.04 4318 shows 

MTC1 Fri(T-4) - 127917/1318554 2206272.49 7262 shows +15373

MTC1 Sat - 125014/1365637 1984504.18 7557 shows +13817

 

I am switching to overnight runs for MTC2 previews so that I can get final 3 days pace. I am seeing 140K T-1 and 220K finish for now but it could go higher based on how pace is today. MTC1 Friday was also run late night to get accurate daily pace.

 

  

21 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Guardians

MTC1 Friday - 112544/1275548 1957615.44 6919 shows +12360

MTC1 Sat - 111197/1340096 1775338.09 7283 shows +12225

 

[keysersoze123]

 @Porthos I presume you include early shows for Bats/TGM. That amps up the average ticket price big time with all those extra Imax/PLF shows. Do you adjust taking that into account. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wakanda opened during Veterans day and so its IM was higher than norm. its friday presales finished higher than DS2. Nothing about Guardians screams crazy backloaded weekend. 

 

Guardians

MTC2 Previews(T-3) - 108811/644742 1561043.04 4318 shows 

MTC1 Fri(T-4) - 127917/1318554 2206272.49 7262 shows +15373

MTC1 Sat - 125014/1365637 1984504.18 7557 shows +13817

 

I am switching to overnight runs for MTC2 previews so that I can get final 3 days pace. I am seeing 140K T-1 and 220K finish for now but it could go higher based on how pace is today. MTC1 Friday was also run late night to get accurate daily pace.

 

  

 

Yeah that said Saturday presales have been good and that also helps the IM. The presale run has also been more backloaded than QM which will help the Fri more (% wise) than Thu. 6.5 is doable with a good Sat and Sun.

[screambaby]

I know the trend lately is sequels doing better then their closest  previous installment  (creed scream wick) but over all sequels tend do less (not every movie is Avengers endgame) so 130 wouldn't be a disaster....it's just (imo) the overall panic over comic book movie performances in general right now.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

 @Porthos I presume you include early shows for Bats/TGM. That amps up the average ticket price big time with all those extra Imax/PLF shows. Do you adjust taking that into account. 

 

No, only factor it in when making a final prediction.  What I do do is track all PLF sales, as noted in my daily posts, and use that as something of a tie breaker when I'm trying to figure out which movies to anchor my final comps on.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Menor Reborn said:

Yeah that said Saturday presales have been good and that also helps the IM. The presale run has also been more backloaded than QM which will help the Fri more (% wise) than Thu. 6.5 is doable with a good Sat and Sun.

Problem is Friday is tracking towards 30m. I am not seeing 6.5x even if it goes up 20% and drops like 25% on Sunday(which wont be easy as its not that big for big spillover)