The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

 

 

[grim22]

18 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

[misterpepp]

Transformers on sale May 9

 

Additionally, Strays (on sale 5/17, as mentioned in my last post) and Transformers will both have Early Access shows on the Wed prior to release.

Edited May 6, 2023 by datpepper

[charlie Jatinder]

5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Don’t dare to not trust the magic. Flash is obviously postponed.

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/4/2023 at 3:15 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 Drafthouse

 

T-2 Saturday(579 showings): 22342(+2643)/72661 ATP: $14.68

1.09x Ant-Man 3 T-2 (37.07M)

0.986x Thor L&T T-2 (41.50M)

0.665x Doctor Strange MoM T-2 (38.44M)

0.832x Batman T-2 (36.01M)

 

T-3 Sunday(509 showings): 13280(+1742)/64156 ATP: $14.41

1.21x Ant-Man 3 T-3 (31.16M)

0.983x Thor L&T T-3 (31.93M)

0.649x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (25.23M)

0.893x Batman T-3 (30.50M)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 Drafthouse

 

T-1 Saturday(579 showings): 27641(+5299)/72661 ATP: $14.60

0.939x Thor L&T T-1 (39.52M)

0.707x Doctor Strange MoM T-1 (40.87M)

0.837x Batman T-1 (36.22M)

 

T-2 Sunday(509 showings): 16574(+3294)/64156 ATP: $14.33

0.673x Doctor Strange MoM T-2 (26.18M)

0.850x Batman T-2 (29.03M)

 

Numbers are from several hours ago

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Guardians Friday MTC1 - 217053/1391700 3603686.49 7874 shows +43650

Guardians Saturday MTC1 - 271594/1462462 4112506.22 8339 shows

 

So presales are up 15% or so. I am think increase could be around 20%+. ATP takes a hit as morning tickets are cheaper but its going to sell lots more tickets.  I think it should be able to beat Ant 3 without any issues. May be look at 550K finish. 

 

Quote

Ant 3 saturday final - 510786/1560270 7705127.76 8876 shows

 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

dumb question but how does AMC A-list factor into box office?

 

I have A-list and I saw Guardians in Dolby. But I technically didn't spend 20 dollars on Guardians.. so how does that movie receive my technical money?

[keysersoze123]

18 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

dumb question but how does AMC A-list factor into box office?

 

I have A-list and I saw Guardians in Dolby. But I technically didn't spend 20 dollars on Guardians.. so how does that movie receive my technical money?

its not studio's issue. They still get paid by AMC like a normal ticket. But AMC hopes to earn back through concession sales and also if they bring along others who pay full ticket prices. 

[scytheavatar]

What are the chances now that we are looking at a barely better than John Carter level flop with Fast X? It does look more and more like hitting 150M domestic final is going to be difficult for the movie, correct?

[JD Asencio]

5 hours ago, datpepper said:

Transformers on sale May 9

 

Additionally, Strays (on sale 5/17, as mentioned in my last post) and Transformers will both have Early Access shows on the Wed prior to release.

Good evening, a question when they say early access, you mean Wednesday June 7 or Wednesday May 31; I would really appreciate the clarification because it is very rare that they do an early access only one day before it officially launches

[misterpepp]

5 hours ago, datpepper said:

Transformers on sale May 9

 

Hearing from another source it might actually be a midnight drop, so might be more like May 10? Guess we'll find out.

[misterpepp]

3 minutes ago, JD Asencio said:

Good evening, a question when they say early access, you mean Wednesday June 7 or Wednesday May 31; I would really appreciate the clarification because it is very rare that they do an early access only one day before it officially launches

 

These are both on June 7. 

[Eric Prime]

On 5/4/2023 at 11:37 PM, I Am Eric said:

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	95	717	20135	3.56%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 23

 

Comp - T-14

0.428x of Jurassic World: Dominion (7.7M)

2.255x of Nope (14.43M)

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	95	771	20135	3.83%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 54

 

Comp - T-13

0.982x of F9 (6.97M)

0.441x of Jurassic World: Dominion (7.94M)

2.315x of Nope (14.82M)

[Eric Prime]

On 5/4/2023 at 11:43 PM, I Am Eric said:

The Little Mermaid Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	153	912	28586	3.19%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 70

 

Comp - T-21

2.886x of Sonic 2 (18.04M)

0.654x of Jurassic World: Dominion (11.77M)

0.699x of Avatar 2 (11.89M)

0.803x of Mario (25.47M)

The Little Mermaid Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-20 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	153	992	28586	3.47%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 80

 

Comp - T-20

2.703x of Sonic 2 (16.89M)

0.700x of Jurassic World: Dominion (12.61M)

0.715x of Avatar 2 (12.15M)

0.837x of Mario (26.54M)

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	26663	27710	1047	3.78%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

99

 

T-14 Comp:

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	108.05		71	969		0/91	13181/14150	6.85%		4407	23.76%		8.80m
NTTD	144.81		49	723		0/135	20536/21259	3.40%		3737	28.02%		8.98m
Bats	25.62		164	4087		0/285	31380/35467	11.52%		11757	8.91%		5.53m
TG:M	25.82		259	4055		0/259	31878/35933	11.28%		11474	9.12%		5.10m
JWD	40.35		170	2595		0/191	22777/25372	10.23%		10966	9.55%		7.26m
BA	114.80		59	912		0/146	21155/22067	4.13%		4494	23.30%		8.72m
Wick 4	90.96		64	1151		0/88	12191/13342	8.63%		5448	19.22%		8.10m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

F9 COMP NOTE:  The F9 comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     152/10118  [1.50% sold]
Matinee:    31/3517  [0.88% | 2.96% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Halo Effect:  Activated.

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	26611	27710	1099	3.97%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

52

 

T-13 Unadjusted Comps:

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	140.90		57	780		0/135	20479/21259	3.67%		3737	29.41%		8.74m
Bats	25.93		152	4239		0/285	31225/35464	11.95%		11757	9.35%		5.60m
TG:M	25.46		261	4316		0/259	31617/35933	12.01%		11474	9.58%		5.03m
JWD	40.60		112	2707		0/191	22665/25372	10.67%		10966	10.02%		7.31m
BA	112.72		63	975		0/146	21092/22067	4.42%		4494	24.45%		8.57m
Wick 4	89.28		80	1231		0/89	12253/13484	9.13%		5448	20.17%		7.95m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-13 Adjusted Comp:

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	108.04		48	983		0/79	11432/12415	7.92%		4407	24.94%		8.80m
Fast X (adj)			52	1062		0/160	23288/24350	4.36%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Fast X (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

F9 COMP NOTE:  The F9 comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     165/10118  [1.63% sold]
Matinee:    41/3517  [1.17% | 3.73% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	154	21676	22648	972	4.29%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

60

 

T-21 Comps:

%

Sold T-21

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

JWD

51.70

71

1880

0/184

22927/24807

7.58%

10966

8.86%

9.31m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       143/5782  [2.47% sold]
Matinee:        21/621  [3.38% | 2.16% of all tickets sold]
3D:            156/4329  [3.60% | 16.05% of all tickets sold]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 1.77143x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking at T-21 [14.26m]    
TLM = 0.51914x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-21 [13.73m]   

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	153	21550	22582	1032	4.57%

 

Total Showings Removed Today	1
Total Seats Removed Today	66
Total Seats Sold Today	60

 

T-20 Comps:

	%		Sold T-20	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	310.84		33	332		0/74	11116/11448	2.90%		3951	26.12%		19.43m
JWD	52.09		101	1981		0/184	22826/24807	7.99%		10966	9.41%		9.38m
BA	205.58		76	502		0/142	21311/21813	2.30%		4494	22.96%		15.62m
Wick 4	142.34		68	725		0/84	11995/12720	5.70%		5448	18.94%		12.67m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       147/5716  [2.57% sold]
Matinee:       21/621  [3.38% | 2.03% of all tickets sold]
3D:          168/4329  [3.88% | 16.28% of all tickets sold]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 1.7024x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking at T-20 [13.70m]    

TLM = 0.82306x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-20 [11.36m]
TLM = 0.52599x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-20 [13.91m]   

 

========================

 

T-26:	59
T-25:	60
T-24:	59
T-23:	59
T-22:	63
T-21:	60
T-20:	60

 

Okay, this is starting to get a little freaky.

 

(in fact, that 63 exactly makes up for those three 59's )

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Okay, this is starting to get a little freaky.

It is about to be

 

Spoiler

cc @Shawn

 

[M37]

Finally being being able to catch up on the numbers from last couple of days (postmortem coming later), but one interesting nugget I stumbled into: from T-7 and on, GOTG3's sales pattern (at least for Alpha) tracked most closely to ... Avatar 2, more than any other CBM (BPWF was next closest). Don't know what - if anything - that means, but thought it was worth mentioning

 

Also interesting factoid: the last 3 major (>$10M) previews (since BPWF) have finished at $17M, $17.5M and now $17.5M again (A2, AMWQ, GOTG3). So I guess pencil in $17M in for Spider-Verse? or Flash?

[Mickiland16]

5 hours ago, I Am Eric said:

The Little Mermaid Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-20 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	153	992	28586	3.47%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 80

 

Comp - T-20

2.703x of Sonic 2 (16.89M)

0.700x of Jurassic World: Dominion (12.61M)

0.715x of Avatar 2 (12.15M)

0.837x of Mario (26.54M)

 

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	153	21550	22582	1032	4.57%

 

Total Showings Removed Today	1
Total Seats Removed Today	66
Total Seats Sold Today	60

 

T-20 Comps:

	%		Sold T-20	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	310.84		33	332		0/74	11116/11448	2.90%		3951	26.12%		19.43m
JWD	52.09		101	1981		0/184	22826/24807	7.99%		10966	9.41%		9.38m
BA	205.58		76	502		0/142	21311/21813	2.30%		4494	22.96%		15.62m
Wick 4	142.34		68	725		0/84	11995/12720	5.70%		5448	18.94%		12.67m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       147/5716  [2.57% sold]
Matinee:       21/621  [3.38% | 2.03% of all tickets sold]
3D:          168/4329  [3.88% | 16.28% of all tickets sold]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 1.7024x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking at T-20 [13.70m]    

TLM = 0.82306x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-20 [11.36m]
TLM = 0.52599x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-20 [13.91m]   

 

========================

 

T-26:	59
T-25:	60
T-24:	59
T-23:	59
T-22:	63
T-21:	60
T-20:	60

 

Okay, this is starting to get a little freaky.

 

(in fact, that 63 exactly makes up for those three 59's )

So how likely is $100M OW at this point? Could it do it on the three days weekend only?

[TwoMisfits]

1st local (the 14) also set for Spiderverse - 3 screens (12 showings - 4 PLF, 8 not) - this is much closer to Mermaid's opening set (13 showings vs 12) - both still under Mario and an MCU set, but a very good starting set here, though not an epic one.

 

I'd like to see both my locals blow up presales and add screens early b/c I think my area should sell Spidey...but we'll see this week.

 

PS - We'll be buying tickets, although spouse said get the cheap Tuesday ones unless the 2 boys have to see this OW...so we'll see what I end up buying this week:)...

Edited May 6, 2023 by TwoMisfits