The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[TheFlatLannister]

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Hypnotic 

 

Thursday

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
27	82	2390	3.4%

 

COMPS

T-1

 

Evil Dead Rises - (0.0954x) ~$238K THUR

$2.3M OW

 

Pope's Exorcist - (0.503x) ~$402K THUR

$4.5M OW

 

Scream VI - (0.0467x) ~$415K THUR

$2M OW

 

AIR - (0.143x) ~$456K THUR

$2.8M OW

 

Big Yikes

Edited May 11, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[filmlover]

Guardians of the Galaxy 3 to Lead Box Office Again, Book Club 2 Opens - Variety

 

Book Club 2: $7-10M

Guardians: $50-55M

[keysersoze123]

Fast X MTC1 previews (T-8) - 38496/522966 697149.00 2577 shows +2341

 

Pace is definitely picking up. I feel 8m+ previews can happen unless the movie is terrible and final week surge is bad. So 70m+ OW can still happen. 

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Spider-man across the spiderverse MTC1 Previews - 53871/732791 984163.39 3895 shows +5266

Spider-man across the spiderverse MTC1 Previews -  56830/733966 1036451.02 3901 shows +2959

 

Ok day. 

[screambaby]

Maybe hypnotic should be renamed. Conatose

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	179	26523	27885	1362	4.88%

 

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	175
Total Seats Sold Today	64

 

T-9 Unadjusted Comps:

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	131.21		88	1038		0/142	21077/22115	4.69%		3737	36.45%		8.14m
Bats	28.37		168	4801		0/297	31989/36790	13.05%		11757	11.58%		6.13m
TG:M	26.17		167	5205		0/268	31810/37015	14.06%		11474	11.87%		5.17m
JWD	40.30		194	3380		0/190	21844/25224	13.40%		10966	12.42%		7.25m
BA	114.26		71	1192		0/152	21769/22961	5.19%		4494	30.31%		8.68m
Wick 4	93.10		71	1463		0/109	13836/15299	9.56%		5448	25.00%		8.29m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-9 Adjusted Comp:

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	107.69		81	1223		0/80	11347/12570	9.73%		4407	30.91%		8.77m
Fast X (adj)			64	1317		0/161	23205/24522	5.37%

ADUSTMENT NOTE:  Fast X (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

F9 COMP NOTE:  The F9 comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     221/10115  [2.18% sold]
Matinee:    47/3516  [1.34% | 3.45% of all tickets sold]

 

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	179	26452	27889	1437	5.15%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

75

 

T-8 Unadjusted Comps:

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	122.61		134	1172		0/144	21181/22353	5.24%		3737	38.45%		7.60m
Bats	28.88		175	4976		0/297	31814/36790	13.53%		11757	12.22%		6.24m
TG:M	25.80		365	5570		0/268	31445/37015	15.05%		11474	12.52%		5.10m
JWD	40.24		191	3571		0/223	24183/27754	12.87%		10966	13.10%		7.24m
BA	112.79		82	1274		0/152	21685/22959	5.55%		4494	31.98%		8.57m
Wick 4	90.78		120	1583		0/109	13716/15299	10.35%		5448	26.38%		8.08m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-8 Adjusted Comp:

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	104.91		100	1323		0/84	11791/13114	10.09%		4407	32.61%		8.55m
Fast X (adj)			71	1388		0/161	23138/24526	5.66%

ADUSTMENT NOTE:  Fast X (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

F9 COMP NOTE:  The F9 comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     238/10115  [2.35% sold]
Matinee:    53/3516  [1.51% | 3.69% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	154	21376	22720	1344	5.92%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	141
Total Seats Sold Today	118

 

T-16 Comps:

	%		Sold T-16	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	314.75		40	427		0/76	11239/11666	3.66%		3951	34.02%		19.67m
JWD	57.78		112	2326		0/190	22988/25314	9.19%		10966	12.26%		10.40m
BA	170.56		59	788		0/146	21279/22067	3.57%		4494	29.91%		12.96m
Wick 4	131.38		54	1023		0/88	12307/13330	7.67%		5448	24.67%		11.69m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     171/5710  [2.99% sold]
Matinee:    31/621  [4.99% | 2.31% of all tickets sold]
3D:            161/4055  [3.97% | 11.98% of all tickets sold]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 1.75988x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking at T-16 [14.17m]    
TLM = 0.84233x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-16      [11.62m]    
TLM = 0.54022x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-16      [14.29m]    
TLM = 1.17125x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-16          [11.45m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

 

====

 

118 = 2x 59

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

mind it had been also bouncing between 59 and 60, so maybe it still counts 👍

 

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	154	21277	22717	1440	6.34%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

96

 

T-15 Comps:

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	313.04		33	460		0/76	11206/11666	3.94%		3951	36.45%		19.57m
JWD	59.38		99	2425		0/191	22947/25372	9.56%		10966	13.13%		10.69m
BA	168.82		65	853		0/146	21214/22067	3.87%		4494	32.04%		12.83m
Scream VI	232.26		91	620		0/68	7268/7888	7.86%		3134	45.95%		13.24m
Wick 4	132.47		64	1087		0/88	12243/13330	8.15%		5448	26.43%		11.79m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:        189/5710  [3.31% sold]
Matinee:        31/621  [4.99% | 2.15% of all tickets sold]
3D:            174/4054  [4.29% | 12.08% of all tickets sold]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 1.77961x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking at T-15 [14.33m]    
TLM = 0.8677x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-15 [11.97m]    
TLM = 0.54676x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-15 [14.46m]    
TLM = 1.11482x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-15 [10.90m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Across the Spider-Verse Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	123	18626	19898	1272	6.39%

 

Total Seats Added From Missing Showtimes	1482
Total Seats Sold From Missing Showtimes	54

NOTE:   I was able to start retrieve the missing data from that one theater whose seat maps had been previously unavailable this afternoon, as noted in this post.  The above is the amount of tickets sold at those showings at that time. All seats sold at those showings after that point are in the "Total Seats Sold Today" below.

 

Total Seats Sold Today

199

 

Day 2 Comps:

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
ET	118.55		199	1073		0/96	14470/15543	6.90%		6409	19.85%		12.73m
JWD	135.75		222	937		0/158	21395/22332	4.20%		10966	11.60%		24.44m
BA	253.39		76	502		0/142	21311/21813	2.30%		4494	28.30%		19.26m
A2	75.31		369	1689		0/142	19649/21338	7.92%		8986	14.16%		12.80m
Wick 4	193.61		176	657		0/84	12063/12720	5.17%		5448	23.35%		17.23m
GOTG3	58.97		265	2157		0/205	27411/29568	7.30%		8363	15.21%		10.32m
TLM	233.82		90	544		0/154	21462/22006	1.08%		????	????		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of AtSV's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ET COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x to reflect the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:      125/5583  [2.24% sold]
Matinee:    56/2373  [2.36% | 4.40% of all tickets sold]
---------
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
AtSV = 1.31773x TS4 at the same sources of tracking after two days of sales [18.18m]    
AtSV = 0.8377x TLK at the same sources of tracking after two days of sales  [22.16m]    
AtSV = 1.11172x F2 at the same sources of tracking after two days of sales    [10.87m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

 

---

 

Even though I really dislike using official comps from 2021, went ahead and threw in an Eternals comp (seriously Jat, you could have just asked for it ❤️) because it might very well be in the right range on Not Supremely Frontloaded MCU CBM.  Not adding Black Widow right now though coz I don't want to mess with an Adjustment bloc thanks to the trouble I had with some theaters at that point in BW's track.

 

Also, as noted, that one troublesome theater is trackable, so I made a note of the amount of sales it had when I was finally able to sample it.

 

Now we see just where this settles in.

 

Across the Spider-Verse Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days and counting

 

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	123	18537	19896	1359	6.83%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

87

 

Day 3 Comps:

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
ET	111.30		148	1221		0/96	14322/15543	7.86%		6409	21.20%		11.95m
JWD	131.56		96	1033		0/163	21792/22825	4.53%		10966	12.39%		23.68m
BA	247.09		48	550		0/146	21513/22063	2.49%		4494	30.24%		18.78m
A2	73.03		172	1861		0/142	19477/21338	8.72%		8986	15.12%		12.41m
Wick 4	187.45		68	725		0/84	11995/12720	5.70%		5448	24.94%		16.68m
GOTG3	57.81		194	2351		0/205	27217/29568	7.95%		8363	16.25%		10.12m
TLM	222.06		68	612		0/154	21382/21994	1.08%		????	????		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of AtSV's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ET COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x to reflect the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     143/5583  [2.56% sold]
Matinee:    61/2373  [2.57% | 4.49% of all tickets sold]
------
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
AtSV = 1.23744x TS4 at the same sources of tracking after two days of sales [17.08m]    
AtSV = 0.79797x TLK at the same sources of tracking after two days of sales [21.11m]    
AtSV = 1.0513x F2 at the same sources of tracking after two days of sales      [10.28m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

 

=======

 

Switching to T-x comps starting tomorrow...

[Porthos]

Quick and Dirty Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Sacto Report [T-29]

271/18577 (1.46% sold)

 

0.9783x No Time To Die                     after one day of sales [6.07m]
1.3618x Ghostbusters: Afterlife          after one day of sales [6.13m]
0.3790x Jurassic World: Dominion    after one day of sales [6.82m]
0.6362x Black Adam                           after one day of sales [4.83m]
2.2966x Shazam 2                               after one day of sales [7.81m]
0.5634x John Wick 4                           after one day of sales [5.01m]

 

That's.... not completely terrible.   Maybe not even that bad.  The NTTD comp is a little misleading as I didn't get the EA showtimes for that until my third day of tracking, but the others are also not completely terrible.

 

Not sure the comps I'm using here are all that great, but I can't use Fast X because lol 99 days of pre-sales.  ANd speaking of which, JWD is gonna have the same problem with over 40 days of pre-sales.

 

Still... Could have been much worse.   Mind, it also could be a fan rush of sorts, so who knows?  Especially when it would shift to T-x comps...

 

(if anyone wants to suggest a better comp [aside from TGM which blew up here] lemme know)

 

NB:  The Early Access showtimes accounted for 94 of the 271 tickets sold.

Edited May 11, 2023 by Porthos

[Legion Again]

The Transformers comps seem reasonable enough and the start indeed seems pretty fine. I think this will be another movie where reviews are pretty important but not hard to see 50+. 
 

Guess like 40-55 without looking too hard yet or having much in the way of other regionals 😛 

[JayPrimetown]

Anyone have any additional tracking insights on Book Club?

[jedijake]

After looking at these comps, I wonder if BOP is going to adjust the OW for Mermaid quite a bit. 

Edited May 11, 2023 by jedijake

[vafrow]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

Quick and Dirty Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Sacto Report [T-29]

271/18577 (1.46% sold)

 

0.9783x No Time To Die                     after one day of sales [6.07m]
1.3618x Ghostbusters: Afterlife          after one day of sales [6.13m]
0.3790x Jurassic World: Dominion    after one day of sales [6.82m]
0.6362x Black Adam                           after one day of sales [4.83m]
2.2966x Shazam 2                               after one day of sales [7.81m]
0.5634x John Wick 4                           after one day of sales [5.01m]

 

That's.... not completely terrible.   Maybe not even that bad.  The NTTD comp is a little misleading as I didn't get the EA showtimes for that until my third day of tracking, but the others are also not completely terrible.

 

Not sure the comps I'm using here are all that great, but I can't use Fast X because lol 99 days of pre-sales.  ANd speaking of which, JWD is gonna have the same problem with over 40 days of pre-sales.

 

Still... Could have been much worse.   Mind, it also could be a fan rush of sorts, so who knows?  Especially when it would shift to T-x comps...

 

(if anyone wants to suggest a better comp [aside from TGM which blew up here] lemme know)

 

NB:  The Early Access showtimes accounted for 94 of the 271 tickets sold.

 

That's much better than I thought it was doing. I'm not tracking it against anything formally, but, when I look at local theatres, there's not much activity yet, except the larger theatres.

 

For comps though, I'd be curious to see it against Sonic 2. In our household, its our youngest that's absolutely eager to see this, and, one of the only other movies he's had that for is Sonic.

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, Legions of the Galaxy said:

The Transformers comps seem reasonable enough and the start indeed seems pretty fine. I think this will be another movie where reviews are pretty important but not hard to see 50+. 
 

Guess like 40-55 without looking too hard yet or having much in the way of other regionals 😛 

Assuming previews/OD close to 40%, $50M doable?

 

T5 was 35%, though a WED opener, so not sure.

Edited May 11, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[Mickiland16]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

Quick and Dirty Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Sacto Report [T-29]

271/18577 (1.46% sold)

 

0.9783x No Time To Die                     after one day of sales [6.07m]
1.3618x Ghostbusters: Afterlife          after one day of sales [6.13m]
0.3790x Jurassic World: Dominion    after one day of sales [6.82m]
0.6362x Black Adam                           after one day of sales [4.83m]
2.2966x Shazam 2                               after one day of sales [7.81m]
0.5634x John Wick 4                           after one day of sales [5.01m]

 

That's.... not completely terrible.   Maybe not even that bad.  The NTTD comp is a little misleading as I didn't get the EA showtimes for that until my third day of tracking, but the others are also not completely terrible.

 

Not sure the comps I'm using here are all that great, but I can't use Fast X because lol 99 days of pre-sales.  ANd speaking of which, JWD is gonna have the same problem with over 40 days of pre-sales.

 

Still... Could have been much worse.   Mind, it also could be a fan rush of sorts, so who knows?  Especially when it would shift to T-x comps...

 

(if anyone wants to suggest a better comp [aside from TGM which blew up here] lemme know)

 

NB:  The Early Access showtimes accounted for 94 of the 271 tickets sold.

Families represented a considerable part of Bumblebee audience, 35% to be exactly, so maybe the John Wick 4 comp goes up on the latter weeks. GB Afterlife audience was way older but not sure if that means worse, better or the same walkups of what Transformers run is going to get. 

Note: While I get that the 40 days of pre-sales makes it difficult, Bumblebee portion of families was higher than Fallen Kingdom although not by too much (30%) and the latter was older overall too, the last Transformers movies were still more than half under 25. 

In general It's not going to be like a family movie but it shouldn't be surprising if the pre-sales are less frontloaded than those. 

[Legion Again]

13 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Assuming previews/OD close to 40%, $50M doable?

 

T5 was 35%, though a WED opener, so not sure.

If it’s that preview heavy it becomes hard to see for me with this start, but if this is going way smaller than Bay stuff because hype/fandom died out and is gone, perhaps won’t be so previewloaded either.

Edited May 11, 2023 by Legions of the Galaxy

[keysersoze123]

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts MTC1

Wednesday - 5142/35667 101277.14 179 shows

Previews - 11888/617696 219383.64 3289 shows

 

This is as of yesterday night. I dont know what movie would be ideal to comp. But let us now see close to release how things go. If its received well by the fans it may not do that badly. Otherwise its going to be another Shazam though the studio is pushing it stronger than WB did. So I think floor is higher than Shazam for sure. 

 

Edit: added numbers for fan shows. I guess that makes things slightly better. Will probably add a million from that. 

Edited May 11, 2023 by keysersoze123

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts - 11888/617696 219383.64 3289 shows

 

This is as of yesterday night. I dont know what movie would be ideal to comp. But let us now see close to release how things go. If its received well by the fans it may not do that badly. Otherwise its going to be another Shazam though the studio is pushing it stronger than WB did. So I think floor is higher than Shazam for sure. 

Is this including EA? Harkins as always did well in EAs

[keysersoze123]

On 5/9/2023 at 9:12 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Mermaid MTC1

Wednesday - 10458/35113 227329.64 154 shows

Previews(T-16) - 32165/908478 567918.29 5535 shows

 

Boost from reactions seem Eh to me. But overall numbers are still good. Let us see where it lands. 

Mermaid MTC1

Wednesday -  11214/35113 243188.80 154 shows

Thursday(T-15) - 34307/908734 604423.99 5536 shows +2142

 

its still continuing to show some boost from reactions though relatively subdued considering how far away its to release. 

[keysersoze123]

23 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Is this including EA? Harkins as always did well in EAs

Nope. I normally track them separate. I will check and add that as well. it does have 1 dolby show at 7PM. I would not club them as that tends to skew the projection.

 

On early shows Maverick was the extreme case. It sold almost 50K tickets for tuesday shows at MTC1 and that too expensive Imax/PLF tickets. MTC2 sold like 32K PLF tickets as well. Bats was the other one though that just had Imax for one day and other PLFs for 2nd day. Overall similar gross.  

 

Updated post above with fan shows as well. 

Edited May 11, 2023 by keysersoze123