The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I expect Ruby Effing Gillman to beat this. This is going to be Pixar at the absolute bottom. I am predicting Wish wont be the movie to recover Disney animation either. 

Now this is just being silly. Dreamworks may be on a comeback but apart from Puss, they haven't had a 100m domestic hit. Bad Guys got close thanks to a barren pre-Lightyear stretch and good WOM and a damn strong marketing campaign. Gillman has had one trailer and it wasn't even one of Mario’s attachment in addition to having far less awareness than Elemental and arguably stronger competition facing Indy. There's a better chance Elemental domestic outdoes Gillman worldwide.

 

Now Migration being the biggest animated original is something I can see because Illumination took over as the big animation brand this decade, Dreamworks still isn't there yet.

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, YM! said:

Now this is just being silly. Dreamworks may be on a comeback but apart from Puss, they haven't had a 100m domestic hit. Bad Guys got close thanks to a barren pre-Lightyear stretch and good WOM and a damn strong marketing campaign. Gillman has had one trailer and it wasn't even one of Mario’s attachment in addition to having far less awareness than Elemental and arguably stronger competition facing Indy. There's a better chance Elemental domestic outdoes Gillman worldwide.

 

Now Migration being the biggest animated original is something I can see because Illumination took over as the big animation brand this decade, Dreamworks still isn't there yet.

I am thinking 25/60 for elemental. I dont think its that hard. Plus Ruby Gillman seem easier sell looking at the trailer. Not that I would personally like it but its releasing during better weekend when there is no other big movie opening and could do ok with families. 

[Eric Prime]

On 5/17/2023 at 9:02 AM, Eric Toretto said:

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	184	1680	32449	5.18%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 278

 

Comp - T-2

0.867x of F9 (6.15M)

0.480x of Jurassic World 3 (8.64M)

1.339x of Nope (8.57M)

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	184	1934	32449	5.96%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 254

 

Comp - T-1

0.766x of F9 (5.44M)

0.465x of Jurassic World 3 (8.36M)

1.109x of Nope (7.1M)

[filmlover]

15 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I expect Ruby Effing Gillman to beat this. This is going to be Pixar at the absolute bottom. I am predicting Wish wont be the movie to recover Disney animation either. 

[JWR]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am thinking 25/60 for elemental. I dont think its that hard. Plus Ruby Gillman seem easier sell looking at the trailer. Not that I would personally like it but its releasing during better weekend when there is no other big movie opening and could do ok with families. 

 

Indiana Jones 5 is opening on that same weekend. 

[YM!]

12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am thinking 25/60 for elemental. I dont think its that hard. Plus Ruby Gillman seem easier sell looking at the trailer. Not that I would personally like it but its releasing during better weekend when there is no other big movie opening and could do ok with families. 

Elemental is debuting at the Cannes and I think it can ride a wave of momentum if the buzz is good. Even with a 25m opening, and the damage the plus has done, as long as it's tolerable it'll be fine. I still buy Indy being bigger than Flash because of the nostalgia for the former and while I think Flash will have solid wom and reviews, I think Indy is a far bigger brand. Especially when I think Flash is seeming more and more like it'll get the short end of the stick in the May-June CBM tentpole trifecta.

 

What you're predicting is similar legs than Lightyear and Strange World which both had horrible WOM. I just can't see that even if Gillman does better than expected. The summer slate and weekdays should at least get it to a 3x so long as it's tolerable. I still think ~25m is probably what Gillman’s maximum for the five day based on the metrics we know currently, ~25m OW is imho the bare minimum for Elemental.

Edited May 18, 2023 by YM!

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, Maggie said:

Well, this is a surprise

 

‘Transformers: Rise Of The Beasts’ More Than Meets The Eye At $68M-$70M Opening – Box Office Forecast

 

https://deadline.com/2023/05/transformers-rise-of-the-beasts-box-office-projection-1235371748/

Hollywood Reporter is saying $68M too.

 

‘Transformers: Rise of the Beasts’ Tracking for $68M Opening – The Hollywood Reporter

 

FWIW that's still much higher than what the early tracking for, say, Shazam 2 showed at the same point ($35M, ending up around $30M) so who knows.

[Eric Prime]

On 5/17/2023 at 9:22 AM, Eric Toretto said:

The Little Mermaid Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	153	2004	28586	7.01%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 126

 

Comp - T-9

2.987x of Sonic 2 (18.67M)

0.993x of Jurassic World 3 (17.88M)

2.341x of Black Adam (17.79M)
0.862x of Avatar 2 (14.65M)

0.906x of Mario (28.72M)

The Little Mermaid Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	153	2117	28586	7.41%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 113

 

Comp - T-8

2.916x of Sonic 2 (18.22M)

0.993x of Jurassic World 3 (17.87M)

2.291x of Black Adam (17.41M)

0.851x of Avatar 2 (14.47M)

0.860x of Mario (27.26M)

[JWR]

16 minutes ago, YM! said:

Now this is just being silly. Dreamworks may be on a comeback but apart from Puss, they haven't had a 100m domestic hit. Bad Guys got close thanks to a barren pre-Lightyear stretch and good WOM and a damn strong marketing campaign. Gillman has had one trailer and it wasn't even one of Mario’s attachment in addition to having far less awareness than Elemental and arguably stronger competition facing Indy. There's a better chance Elemental domestic outdoes Gillman worldwide.

 

Now Migration being the biggest animated original is something I can see because Illumination took over as the big animation brand this decade, Dreamworks still isn't there yet.

 

Hell, even Strange World had put out more  trailers than Ruby Gillman has at this point.

[ThomasNicole]

Yeah 2.4x multiplier for an original movie expected to have great reception seems a bit absurd to me especially without a big opening

 

I know the sales are awful but i really don’t know why presales are so important for this movie, it started to sell extremelly early, Pixar isn’t the type of brand they used to be and it’s an original movie… it doesn’t even need great previews to have a decent OW like high 30 - low 40, it entirely depends of WOM 

[Eric Prime]

On 5/17/2023 at 9:38 AM, Eric Toretto said:

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	123	1567	23838	6.57%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 43

 

Comp - T-16

3.363x of Sonic 2 (21.02M)

0.999x of Jurassic World 3 (17.98M)

0.309x of Thor 4 (8.97M)

0.927x of Avatar 2 (15.76M)

0.392x of Ant-Man 3 (6.86M)

1.026x of Mario (32.53M)

0.500x of Guardians 3 (8.75M)

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	123	1618	23838	6.79%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 51

 

Comp - T-15

3.357x of Sonic 2 (20.98M)

1.010x of Jurassic World 3 (18.18M)

0.312x of Thor 4 (9.05M)

0.903x of Avatar 2 (15.35M)

0.395x of Ant-Man 3 (6.91M)

1.025x of Mario (32.51M)

0.511x of Guardians 3 (8.95M)

[John Marston]

Wonder if Paramount’s tracking is based on trailer views rather than actual tickets sold

[M37]

A reminder that Deadline & THR don’t really do their own tracking, just reporting what “industry sources” have told them. Appears someone wanted that OW number floated out there and gave it to both, but nothing in sales data thusfar suggests it’s in that range

 

tl:dr - stick with ProBO

[misterpepp]

Flash tix on sale May 23 at noon EST

 

@keysersoze123

[keysersoze123]

Trades put the initial numbers based on Industry Tracking (Awareness/Definite Interest numbers). They dont just put in a tracking number randomly. That is why all these reports are fairly close. 

 

I am sure @Shawn can confirm. I know boxoffice.com looks at different things. But this is one of the few times that its totally different from other trades. 

[keysersoze123]

12 minutes ago, datpepper said:

Flash tix on sale May 23 at noon EST

 

@keysersoze123

Next week is nuts. We have Indy 5 starting on Monday and Flash on Tuesday. 

So what do folks think. Which movie will have bigger OD sales nationally. Plus Flash relative to other SH movies recently would be interesting though I dont want this thread to go toxic. 

[filmlover]

Watch Transformers land right in the middle between the trades and BOP for a $45-50M opening. That's usually how it works when there's that big a discrepancy. 

[keysersoze123]

36 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Yeah 2.4x multiplier for an original movie expected to have great reception seems a bit absurd to me especially without a big opening

 

I know the sales are awful but i really don’t know why presales are so important for this movie, it started to sell extremelly early, Pixar isn’t the type of brand they used to be and it’s an original movie… it doesn’t even need great previews to have a decent OW like high 30 - low 40, it entirely depends of WOM 

I dont want to prolong this discussion on this thread but Sohn made Good Dinosaur previously. I would keep expectations low. 

[JWR]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont want to prolong this discussion on this thread but Sohn made Good Dinosaur previously. I would keep expectations low. 

 

 I guess. Maybe you'll be right? We'll just have to find out.

Edited May 18, 2023 by JWR

[TheFlatLannister]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Next week is nuts. We have Indy 5 starting on Monday and Flash on Tuesday. 

So what do folks think. Which movie will have bigger OD sales nationally. Plus Flash relative to other SH movies recently would be interesting though I dont want this thread to go toxic. 

Definitely the flash imo. Thinking at least $100M OW but i could be off