The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Mulder]

6 minutes ago, Wesley said:

@Mulder 

what do you think its gonna do then ?

Like 90 at best. 

[TheFlatLannister]

11 minutes ago, Wesley said:

Its gonna do well over $100M with WOM and walkups 

It can do $100M depending on how things go, but “well over” not sure about that 

[screambaby]

2 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Like 90 at best. 

I have given a name to my pain and it' is batman...

[cooldude97]

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Yes it is 

 

thinking $11M-13M previews for Flash

 

So $70M-$90M depending on IM 

lol someone on Reddit posted this but totally left out the $70M-$90M OW Part 

[charlie Jatinder]

@DAJK lied to us. Canada was way less than GoTG 3. Boooo.

[DAJK]

1 hour ago, across the Jat verse said:

@DAJK lied to us. Canada was way less than GoTG 3. Boooo.

Really? Damn, must really be overperforming locally then  

[vafrow]

2 hours ago, DAJK said:

Really? Damn, must really be overperforming locally then  

 

I noticed downtown Toronto theatres were some of the less busy ones when I was checking

 Anything in the west end of the GTA was selling crazy from what I saw, but it was also hit or miss as I went a bit more outside that radius.

[Porthos]

On 6/2/2023 at 1:28 AM, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Sacto Report [T-7]

1259/19437 [6.48% sold] [+124 tickets]

0.21185x the sales of TGM at T-7                 [4.08m]

0.32407x the sales of JWD at T-7                 [5.83m]

0.90122x the sales of Black Adam at T-7     [6.85m]

2.51800x the sales of Shazam 2 at T-7         [8.56m]

0.72190x the sales of Wick 4 at T-7             [6.42m]

0.85068x the sales of Fast X at T-7             [6.38m]

 

Quick and Dirty Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Sacto Report [T-6]

1357/19437 [6.98% sold] [+98 tickets]

0.32542x the sales of JWD at T-6                 [5.86m]

0.89218x the sales of Black Adam at T-6      [6.78m]

0.71496x the sales of Wick 4 at T-6              [6.36m]

0.86931x the sales of Fast X at T-6               [6.52m]

 

===

Removed the TGM and Shazam 2 comps as even on Quick and Dirty's I have my standards, and they're just not providing good info at the moment.

Edited June 3, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 6/2/2023 at 1:29 AM, Porthos said:

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-28 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	124	18798	19527	729	3.73%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

41

 

T-28 Comps:

	%		Sold T-28	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	46.52		46	1567		0/171	22217/23784	6.59%		10966	6.65%		8.37m
FX	102.53		3	711		0/182	27027/27738	2.56%		8363	8.72%		7.69m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:       116/6084  [1.91% sold]
Matinee:    42/1728  [2.43% | 5.76% of all tickets sold]

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-27 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	124	18774	19527	753	3.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

24

 

T-27 Comps:

	%		Sold T-27	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	47.39		22	1589		0/171	22195/23784	6.68%		10966	6.87%		8.53m
FX	105.31		4	715		0/182	26985/27700	2.58%		8363	9.00%		7.90m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     132/6084  [2.17% sold]
Matinee:    55/1728  [3.18% | 7.30% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 6/2/2023 at 1:30 AM, Porthos said:

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	23921	25148	1227	4.88%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

65

 

T-14 Comps:

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	134.54		59	912		0/146	21155/22067	4.13%		4494	27.30%		10.23m
Wick 4	106.60		64	1151		0/88	12191/13342	8.63%		5448	22.52%		9.49m
AtSV	61.78		94	1986		0/129	18803/20789	9.55%		????	????		????

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     200/5286  [3.78% sold]
Matinee:    20/2140  [0.93% | 1.63% of all tickets sold]

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	23867	25148	1281	5.09%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

54

 

T-13 Comps:

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	30.22		152	4239		0/285	31225/35464	11.95%		11757	10.90%		6.53m
BA	131.38		63	975		0/146	21092/22067	4.42%		4494	28.50%		9.99m
Wick 4	104.06		80	1231		0/89	12253/13484	9.13%		5448	23.51%		9.26m
AtSV	61.91		83	2069		0/129	18720/20789	9.95%		9744	13.15%		10.74m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     203/5286  [3.84% sold]
Matinee:    20/2140  [0.93% | 1.56% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

We have an AtSV comp now!!!!

 

...

 

And it's pretty similar to the other two comps I've already been using.  Meh.

 

Also decided it's time to bring back The Batman comp.  Not coz it's at all accurate (it isn't), but more for pace purposes.  I'll check out what other trackers are using and see which ones I like and possibly add them in the coming days.

[Joyous Legion]

Either the dark magic dies… or flash does 👀

Edited June 3, 2023 by Legions of the Galaxy

[M37]

19 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

So, since this thread is Ever Looking Onward, what does the Collective BOT Hive think about this?

 

Have to admit it's a stronger start than I personally was expecting.  But I'm not sure on how strong of a start it actually is and what it is pointing to with the Silly Long preview window and Partial PLFs Only.

 

(and, no, I didn't track TENET since at the time Sacto was still locked down, so I don't have any direct recent comparisons)

 

So curious what folks are thinking about this from a mid-major market like Sacramento.

Don't OD tickets sales usually skew heavily to PLF because of limited supply (and subscription plans) anyway? That Nolan has a younger male and eager fanbase that jumped onto PLF shows so early is not at all surprising to me

 

The more interesting question is what happens when the standard shows open up next week and how much they move the needle

 

 

[keysersoze123]

On 6/2/2023 at 6:52 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Spiderverse MTC1 Friday PS Final - 274568/1211561 4498223.74 6794 shows 

Spiderverse MTC1 Sat PS Final - 300128/1241146 4612697.48 7044 shows

 

Yesterday it finished at 551K and so today expecting 600K+. 

[M37]

On 5/30/2023 at 10:51 AM, M37 said:

Flash T-14 ... er, T-17 Update

 

These are the growth rates from T-14 for some potential comps for Flash (Sacto Data)

• Batman = +188%
• GOTG3 = +193%
• Fast X = +320%
• JWD = +323%
• Fast 9 = +359%
• John Wick 4 = +373%
• Black Adam = +393%

So nothing since NWH, even the more backloaded films or those with a short sales window, has gotten better than +400% (or 5x) from its T-14 checkpoint number [unless you start looking at family films, which I think (hope?) we can all agree Flash is not]

 

We're on pace to see Alpha get to around 50K by T-14, a 5x from there (so better than anything on the board) would be a 250K finish, and based on how DC films usually preform, that's ~$13.5M preview ... and about as close to a reasonably optimistic outcome as can be projected from here. Can it do a little bit better with good reviews? Sure, but it would be an extreme bump just to get to $15M for Thursday.

 

A June opening CBM isn't likely to have a high IM, but with potential good WOM and Father's Day it shouldn't crash low either. Roll it all together than this is where tracking (by my analysis of the data) is sitting. Getting to $90M OW from current baseline should be viewed as a win, crossing $100M would really good, and anything much more than that requires things to happen that we just haven't seen in 18+ months. Set your expectations accordingly

 

Flash OW Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$10.5	$11.1	$11.6	$12.2	$12.8	$13.3	$13.9	$14.4	$15.0
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.75	$60.4	$63.6	$66.8	$70.1	$73.3	$76.5	$79.8	$83.0	$86.3
	6.03	$63.3	$66.7	$70.1	$73.5	$76.9	$80.3	$83.7	$87.1	$90.5
	6.31	$66.3	$69.8	$73.4	$76.9	$80.5	$84.0	$87.6	$91.1	$94.7
	6.59	$69.2	$72.9	$76.7	$80.4	$84.1	$87.8	$91.5	$95.2	$98.9
	6.88	$72.2	$76.1	$79.9	$83.8	$87.7	$91.5	$95.4	$99.3	$103.1
	7.16	$75.1	$79.2	$83.2	$87.2	$91.2	$95.3	$99.3	$103.3	$107.3
	7.44	$78.1	$82.3	$86.5	$90.6	$94.8	$99.0	$103.2	$107.4	$111.6
	7.72	$81.0	$85.4	$89.7	$94.1	$98.4	$102.8	$107.1	$111.4	$115.8
	8.00	$84.0	$88.5	$93.0	$97.5	$102.0	$106.5	$111.0	$115.5	$120.0

 

 

Looking at last couple of days, and now having ATSV as a true comp, I'm a little bit lower on Flash now, agreeing with @TheFlatLannister that we're heading towards a roughly $11-$13M preview (more like $10.5-$12.5 IMO), with that high end of the range accounting for a very good review bump (aka a GOTG3 overperformance relative to baseline pace). DC films in general tend to over-index in larger metros/MTCs, so there's just less chance that some of the demand is being missed by tracking samples

 

Probably best to set aside dreams of a $100M opening, and really getting to even $90M from here would should be considered a win/extremely good finish. Flash (for reasons that can be discussed in other threads), just doesn't seem to have "it", at least for OW - we'll have to see about legs

 

Flash OW Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$9.5	$10.0	$10.5	$11.0	$11.5	$12.0	$12.5	$13.0	$13.5
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.75	$54.6	$57.5	$60.4	$63.3	$66.1	$69.0	$71.9	$74.8	$77.6
	6.00	$57.0	$60.0	$63.0	$66.0	$69.0	$72.0	$75.0	$78.0	$81.0
	6.25	$59.4	$62.5	$65.6	$68.8	$71.9	$75.0	$78.1	$81.3	$84.4
	6.50	$61.8	$65.0	$68.3	$71.5	$74.8	$78.0	$81.3	$84.5	$87.8
	6.75	$64.1	$67.5	$70.9	$74.3	$77.6	$81.0	$84.4	$87.8	$91.1
	7.00	$66.5	$70.0	$73.5	$77.0	$80.5	$84.0	$87.5	$91.0	$94.5
	7.25	$68.9	$72.5	$76.1	$79.8	$83.4	$87.0	$90.6	$94.3	$97.9
	7.50	$71.3	$75.0	$78.8	$82.5	$86.3	$90.0	$93.8	$97.5	$101.3
	7.75	$73.6	$77.5	$81.4	$85.3	$89.1	$93.0	$96.9	$100.8	$104.6

Will update again at T-7, but its going to take a really good week to bump these numbers back up. For reference, if Flash were to follow the ATSV track (~$12-$12.5M preview), would expect its Alpha T-7 checkpoint to land north of 70K tickets. With the review embargo being lifted early, that's certainly on the table

[XXR & Friends]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

T-13 Comps:

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	30.22		152	4239		0/285	31225/35464	11.95%		11757	10.90%		6.53m
BA	131.38		63	975		0/146	21092/22067	4.42%		4494	28.50%		9.99m
Wick 4	104.06		80	1231		0/89	12253/13484	9.13%		5448	23.51%		9.26m
AtSV	61.91		83	2069		0/129	18720/20789	9.95%		9744	13.15%		10.74m

 

If these bear out, that maligned Deadline number may end up being high....

[Joyous Legion]

18 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Spiderverse MTC1 Sat PS Final - 300128/1241146 4612697.48 7044 shows

 

Yesterday it finished at 551K and so today expecting 600K+. 

Pretty healthy, I would guess 625-650 but not sure how much summer-y trends may change walkup growth patterns for sat/fri relative to school 

[GOGODanca]

55 minutes ago, M37 said:

Looking at last couple of days, and now having ATSV as a true comp, I'm a little bit lower on Flash now, agreeing with @TheFlatLannister that we're heading towards a roughly $11-$13M preview (more like $10.5-$12.5 IMO), with that high end of the range accounting for a very good review bump (aka a GOTG3 overperformance relative to baseline pace). DC films in general tend to over-index in larger metros/MTCs, so there's just less chance that some of the demand is being missed by tracking samples

 

Probably best to set aside dreams of a $100M opening, and really getting to even $90M from here would should be considered a win/extremely good finish. Flash (for reasons that can be discussed in other threads), just doesn't seem to have "it", at least for OW - we'll have to see about legs

 

Flash OW Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$9.5	$10.0	$10.5	$11.0	$11.5	$12.0	$12.5	$13.0	$13.5
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.75	$54.6	$57.5	$60.4	$63.3	$66.1	$69.0	$71.9	$74.8	$77.6
	6.00	$57.0	$60.0	$63.0	$66.0	$69.0	$72.0	$75.0	$78.0	$81.0
	6.25	$59.4	$62.5	$65.6	$68.8	$71.9	$75.0	$78.1	$81.3	$84.4
	6.50	$61.8	$65.0	$68.3	$71.5	$74.8	$78.0	$81.3	$84.5	$87.8
	6.75	$64.1	$67.5	$70.9	$74.3	$77.6	$81.0	$84.4	$87.8	$91.1
	7.00	$66.5	$70.0	$73.5	$77.0	$80.5	$84.0	$87.5	$91.0	$94.5
	7.25	$68.9	$72.5	$76.1	$79.8	$83.4	$87.0	$90.6	$94.3	$97.9
	7.50	$71.3	$75.0	$78.8	$82.5	$86.3	$90.0	$93.8	$97.5	$101.3
	7.75	$73.6	$77.5	$81.4	$85.3	$89.1	$93.0	$96.9	$100.8	$104.6

Will update again at T-7, but its going to take a really good week to bump these numbers back up. For reference, if Flash were to follow the ATSV track (~$12-$12.5M preview), would expect its Alpha T-7 checkpoint to land north of 70K tickets. With the review embargo being lifted early, that's certainly on the table

Crazy to think a Flash movie with Keaton in it is likely to open far below a R Rated Horror movie by the same director

[GOGODanca]

Oppenheimer

Thurs Preview: 206 tickets across 11 showtimes at 6 AMC's

Friday:               99 tickets across 25 showtimes at 7 AMC's

[keysersoze123]

@Shawn/Mods. Are we switching to new thread today?

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Looking at last couple of days, and now having ATSV as a true comp, I'm a little bit lower on Flash now, agreeing with @TheFlatLannister that we're heading towards a roughly $11-$13M preview (more like $10.5-$12.5 IMO), with that high end of the range accounting for a very good review bump (aka a GOTG3 overperformance relative to baseline pace). DC films in general tend to over-index in larger metros/MTCs, so there's just less chance that some of the demand is being missed by tracking samples

 

Probably best to set aside dreams of a $100M opening, and really getting to even $90M from here would should be considered a win/extremely good finish. Flash (for reasons that can be discussed in other threads), just doesn't seem to have "it", at least for OW - we'll have to see about legs

 

Flash OW Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$9.5	$10.0	$10.5	$11.0	$11.5	$12.0	$12.5	$13.0	$13.5
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.75	$54.6	$57.5	$60.4	$63.3	$66.1	$69.0	$71.9	$74.8	$77.6
	6.00	$57.0	$60.0	$63.0	$66.0	$69.0	$72.0	$75.0	$78.0	$81.0
	6.25	$59.4	$62.5	$65.6	$68.8	$71.9	$75.0	$78.1	$81.3	$84.4
	6.50	$61.8	$65.0	$68.3	$71.5	$74.8	$78.0	$81.3	$84.5	$87.8
	6.75	$64.1	$67.5	$70.9	$74.3	$77.6	$81.0	$84.4	$87.8	$91.1
	7.00	$66.5	$70.0	$73.5	$77.0	$80.5	$84.0	$87.5	$91.0	$94.5
	7.25	$68.9	$72.5	$76.1	$79.8	$83.4	$87.0	$90.6	$94.3	$97.9
	7.50	$71.3	$75.0	$78.8	$82.5	$86.3	$90.0	$93.8	$97.5	$101.3
	7.75	$73.6	$77.5	$81.4	$85.3	$89.1	$93.0	$96.9	$100.8	$104.6

Will update again at T-7, but its going to take a really good week to bump these numbers back up. For reference, if Flash were to follow the ATSV track (~$12-$12.5M preview), would expect its Alpha T-7 checkpoint to land north of 70K tickets. With the review embargo being lifted early, that's certainly on the table

T-7 - 70K should be easy. Reviews are out on Tuesday. it was at 55k+ yesterday(I am not counting early shows as it adds nothing to overall gross. Early shows sold another 3425 tickets). 

 

That said your numbers look likely barring something crazy. I agree that DC movies will overindex at MTC1.