The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:45am - 12:15pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	205	22721	26972	4251	15.76%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	98
Total Seats Sold Today	634

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Comps:

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats [11:30-12:35]	40.57		939	10478		1/327	28376/38854	26.97%		11757	36.16%		8.76m
BA [11:35-12:25]	117.43		466	3620		0/250	28058/31678	11.43%		4494	94.59%		8.92m
Shaz[11:40-12:10]	341.17		177	1246		0/165	21921/23167	5.38%		1663	255.62%		11.60m
AtSV[11:40-12:15]	52.69		1033	8068		0/251	22776/30844	26.16%		9744	43.63%		9.14m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        782/6041  [12.94% sold]
Matinee:    231/2323  [9.94% | 5.43% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Fairly decent start to the day.  The Shazam 2 comp is gonna take a nose dive at the end as I somehow think it will be... difficult for Flash to sell the 1400+ tickets needed for it to keep pace against it. 

 

Didn't have the fan first event locally and things do look to be trending upward a bit so at least should clear 9m from Sacto.  If I had to guess, I'd say we're locally homing in on 9.25m based on these comps, but could be a touch higher.  Just have to see how the rest of the walkups go between now and stop of sample.

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:55pm - 4:20pm]

All showtimes before 3:55pm were sampled at the start of their showing.

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	205	21645	26972	5327	19.75%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day

1076

 

T-0 Comps:

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats [3:00-4:30]	45.31		1279	11757		1/328	27144/38901	30.22%		11757	45.31%		9.79m
BA [3:45-4:35]	118.54		874	4494		0/250	27184/31678	14.19%		4494	118.54%		9.01m
Shaz[3:55-4:15]	320.32		417	1663		0/166	21658/23321	7.13%		1663	320.32%		10.89m
AtSV[11:40-12:15]	54.67		1676	9744		0/266	22261/32005	30.45%		9744	54.67%		9.49m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1036/6041  [17.15% sold]
Matinee:    367/2323  [15.80% | 6.89% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Score one for @M37 as this had exceedingly strong final walkups.  Not strong enough to keep that Shazam 2 pace, as I thought.  But still very strong.

 

Still think Sacto is being a little squirrely and we don't have those fan first deelios, but let's go with 9.75m +/- .5m.

Edited June 15, 2023 by Porthos

[Mulder]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:55pm - 4:20pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	205	21645	26972	5327	19.75%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day

1076

 

T-0 Comps:

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats [3:00-4:30]	45.31		1279	11757		1/328	27144/38901	30.22%		11757	45.31%		9.79m
BA [3:45-4:35]	118.54		874	4494		0/250	27184/31678	14.19%		4494	118.54%		9.01m
Shaz[3:55-4:15]	320.32		417	1663		0/166	21658/23321	7.13%		1663	320.32%		10.89m
AtSV[11:40-12:15]	54.67		1676	9744		0/266	22261/32005	30.45%		9744	54.67%		9.49m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1036/6041  [17.15% sold]
Matinee:    367/2323  [15.80% | 6.89% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Score one for @M37 as this had exceedingly strong final walkups.  Not strong enough to keep that Shazam 2 pace, as I thought.  But still very strong.

 

Still think Sacto is being a little squirrely and we don't have those fan first deelios, but let's go with 9.75m +/- .5m.

Thanks for all your work over this, you're a true trooper. My 10 million prediction a while back is looking good. Now it depends on its IM.

[Porthos]

16 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Elemental Sacto Report  [T-1]

981/10780 (9.10% sold) [+308 tickets]

0.44570x GBA            at T-1     [2.12m]

0.32108x Sonic 2      at T-1      [2.13m]

0.24616x Minions 2  at T-1      [2.62m]

0.43447x Nope         at T-1      [2.20m]

0.83189x Shazam 2  at T-1      [3.12m]

 

Quick and Dirty Elemental Sacto Report  [T-0] [FINAL] [4:25-4:40]

(showtimes before 4:00pm sampled at start of showing)

1910/10567 (18.08% sold) [+929 tickets]

0.62953x GBA           at T-0     [2.83m]

0.48342x Sonic 2      at T-0     [3.02m]

0.28979x Minions 2  at T-0     [3.12m]

0.49974x Nope         at T-0     [3.20m]

1.14853x Shazam 2  at T-0     [3.90m]

 

Fantastic finish locally as it nearly doubled its total today (all day total).  Mind, from so low a base that's easier to do, but still very impressive.  So impressive that I'm somewhat worried that my sampling methodology might be over-sampling a bit (I grab all finished showtimes before 4pm, more or less.  And I did the sample a tiny bit later than normal (due to also having The Flash).

 

Still, lets just go with a flat 3m +/- .3m.  Error bar is a bit high for so low tracked total, but more uncertainty due to slightly later tracking. But it's also a Q&D, so if it's off by more, I can't say I care a huge amount.

Edited June 16, 2023 by Porthos

[vafrow]

20 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

why are we expecting a little kids movie to get a bump on fathers day? wouldn't dads choose spider-verse,flash or beasts instead?

 

Most parents aren't too particular with young kids. If kids are at Pixar age, they're generally just happy to do a family activity if they feel the kids will participate.

 

My fathers day weekend is basically scheduled to drive my kids to their various activities and watch one of them perform in a dance recital. The performing kid even gets to pick the restaurant. And I'm happy to do it all. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 hour ago, XXRkham Asylum said:

You dare go against the dark magic of Sac’Re’Mentö……

 

13 minutes ago, Porthos said:

===

 

Score one for @M37 as this had exceedingly strong final walkups.  Not strong enough to keep that Shazam 2 pace, as I thought.  But still very strong.

 

Still think Sacto is being a little squirrely and we don't have those fan first deelios, but let's go with 9.75m +/- .5m.

 

Ohhh ho ho you think this is a game huh Sacto boy?!? 

 

[Eric Prime]

7 hours ago, Eric Prime said:

Elemental Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	84	435	11295	3.85%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 83

 

Comp - T-1

2.862x of The Bad Guys (3.29M)

0.396x of Lightyear (2.06M)

0.287x of Minions 2 (3.08M)

6.304x of Paws of Fury (3.18M)

1.521x of DC Super Pets (3.35M)

7.632x of Lyle Lyle Crocodile (4.39M)

Elemental Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	84	1003	11295	8.88%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 568

 

Comp

2.675x of The Bad Guys (3.08M)

0.528x of Lightyear (2.75M)

0.343x of Minions 2 (3.69M)

6.042x of Paws of Fury (3.05M)

1.176x of DC Super Pets (2.59M)

6.687x of Lyle Lyle Crocodile (3.84M)

[Goldenhour36]

I know it can be stressful to see movies underperform, but keep in mind that the top 10 movies are diverse, and we may have a weekend where five movies open to more than $20 million each. This would bring in the audience that theater owners have been hoping for this summer.

[M37]

1 hour ago, XXRkham Asylum said:

You dare go against the dark magic of Sac’Re’Mentö……

12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Score one for @M37 as this had exceedingly strong final walkups.  Not strong enough to keep that Shazam 2 pace, as I thought.  But still very strong.

 

Still think Sacto is being a little squirrely and we don't have those fan first deelios, but let's go with 9.75m +/- .5m.

 

 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Well, since Porthos abandoned me in my moment of triumph, lets try this again....

 

~9.5 - 10.5 previews

~5.8 - 6.8 IM

~55 - 71 OW

[WebSurfer]

How's it looking for Elemental based on these recent sales?

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

 

 

 

Yep... "Magic"

 

[John Marston]

So is Flash beating Black Adam’s opening? 

[Eric Prime]

7 hours ago, Eric Prime said:

The Flash Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	116	3362	21860	15.38%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 515

 

Comp - T-1

0.341x of The Batman (7.37M)

0.808x of Jurassic World 3 (14.54M)

0.316x of Thor 4 (9.15M)

1.452x of Black Adam (11.03M)

0.739x of Avatar 2 (12.56M)

0.462x of Ant-Man 3 (8.08M)

0.509x of Guardians 3 (8.92M)

0.663x of Spider-Verse (11.5M)

The Flash Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	117	5078	21918	23.17%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,716

 

Comp

0.408x of The Batman (8.8M)

0.807x of Jurassic World 3 (14.53M)

0.371x of Thor 4 (10.77M)

1.438x of Black Adam (10.93M)

0.837x of Avatar 2 (14.23M)

0.548x of Ant-Man 3 (9.6M)

0.605x of Guardians 3 (10.58M)

0.657x of Spider-Verse (11.39M)

 

Like I said before, this will be the last film that I will track for a while, as I'm going on a hiatus from the tracking team. It's a tough combination of wanting a better work-life balance, which I feel tracking does not help accomplish, as well as my own dissatisfaction and frustrations with tracking in general. I hope to perhaps one day return to this domain, but I think it's better for my own mental health and personal life if I take time away from this.

 

Thank you to everybody who has been following me and my reports over the last few years, as far back as 2017, and thank you as always to my fellow Tracking Team/Think Tank members for the incredible work you lot do each and every day. I can't say when I'll be back, but I hope to return to the practice sometime soon when I have a better schedule and a stronger passion for the job.
 

However, I will be doing updates for everybody on The Quorum and how their awareness/interest metrics track with other releases, so I won't be away from this thread. Just going to be taking a backseat. I hope you all understand and will still be happy with the new, far lighter work I have planned for this thread.

[emoviefan]

23 minutes ago, Goldenhour36 said:

I know it can be stressful to see movies underperform, but keep in mind that the top 10 movies are diverse, and we may have a weekend where five movies open to more than $20 million each. This would bring in the audience that theater owners have been hoping for this summer.

That's the thing.  On their own Flash and Elemental are underperforming but with all the movies in theaters the biz is doing just fine. People have choices and this is a good thing for the overall health of theaters.

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, XXRkham Asylum said:

Seems like the general consensus for Flash previews is in the 9-9.5 range. I imagine the IM is in the 5.7-6.7 range. Final OW estimate; 52-64M.

 

2 hours ago, M37 said:

Only just got home and inputting data, but I would be above that presumed consensus for Thursday right now. Seeing a strong enough finishing kick that the $10M preview door remains slightly open IMO

 

35 minutes ago, XXRkham Asylum said:

 

 

Ohhh ho ho you think this is a game huh Sacto boy?!? 

 

 

23 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

 

 

21 minutes ago, XXRkham Asylum said:

Well, since Porthos abandoned me in my moment of triumph, lets try this again....

 

~9.5 - 10.5 previews

~5.8 - 6.8 IM

~55 - 71 OW

 

For realz though, I didn't even see your or M37's posts here (specifically the one where M37 said near 10m was a possibility)  until just now catching up, as I was busy in my dual-track at the time.  Plus I don't like looking at other posts as I don't want it to affect my own call too much, as I don't like to herd.

 

Also FWIW, just before I hit "Submit Reply", I'll take a quick peek at other markets to see if I'm wildly out of whack, but that's only as I decide whether or not to shift very very slightly — in this case I didn't.  Maybe I should have shifted down to 9.5m, but, eh.  If it's off, it's off.

Edited June 16, 2023 by Porthos

[M37]

My Flash preview target is - and frankly has been for a few days - around $9.7M (including those few paid fan shows). And feeling good about avoiding the sub-$60M cliff for OW, but maybe not by much

 

But as I mentioned in a previous post, there's a bit of weirdness in the sales patterns, so less confidence there, not going to be surprised if its $0.5M lower or even higher. Going to be VERY curious what the market skew & demo breakdown looks like for this one

[ZackM]

 

169k

 

The Flash - Eastern Time Zone					The Flash - Central Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	Black Adam	JW3		Showtimes	Sales	Black Adam	JW3
3:00-3:59	13,627	9,185	0		3:00-3:59	8,427	4,738	0
4:00-4:59	5,628	5,184	20,417		4:00-4:59	2,251	2,498	14,321
5:00-5:59	3,025	2,790	8,521		5:00-5:59	1,664	1,318	6,108
6:00-6:59	17,371	13,100	11,434		6:00-6:59	10,022	7,522	7,891
7:00-7:59	16,425	14,670	24,802		7:00-7:59	8,148	8,102	18,911
8:00-8:59	5,852	6,654	17,147		8:00-8:59	2,505	3,320	12,096
9:00-9:59	7,489	9,910	9,304		9:00-9:59	3,506	5,131	6,259
10:00-10:59	8,081	4,485	4,470		10:00-10:59	3,051	1,913	4,238
11:00-11:59	1,176	315	4,552		11:00-11:59	295	106	2,723
12:00+	94	201	115		12:00+	16	0	106
The Flash - Mountain Time Zone					The Flash - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	Black Adam	JW3		Showtimes	Sales	Black Adam	JW3
3:00-3:59	2,092	1,400	0		3:00-3:59	7,708	5,154	0
4:00-4:59	776	578	4,138		4:00-4:59	3,459	3,288	10,640
5:00-5:59	332	313	1,914		5:00-5:59	1,800	1,227	5,631
6:00-6:59	2,043	2,139	2,145		6:00-6:59	8,808	7,272	7,303
7:00-7:59	2,313	1,796	4,708		7:00-7:59	6,735	7,187	12,380
8:00-8:59	616	769	3,202		8:00-8:59	3,122	3,000	11,173
9:00-9:59	426	1,138	1,791		9:00-9:59	3,718	5,812	6,175
10:00-10:59	570	233	1,009		10:00-10:59	4,180	3,607	3,426
11:00-11:59	6	70	512		11:00-11:59	1,500	721	4,112
12:00+	10	0	37		12:00+	122	0	804

Edited June 16, 2023 by ZackM

[efialtes76]

1 hour ago, JpTransformers said:

 

In the time I've been here, things for Flash have gone from great to disaster in no time.

Definitely my initial guess of 75m+ looks dead.

 

To complete the film is falling in audience approval on Rotten (95% -> 88%) and has just over 100 verified reviews

Transformers dropped to 86% after 100 reviews and now is at 91% with 2 500+.

 

[excel1]

Walk-ups are abnormally strong? Estimates growing by the millisecond?

 

YOU DON'T SAY 

Edited June 16, 2023 by excel1

[excel1]

28 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

169k

 

The Flash - Eastern Time Zone					The Flash - Central Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	Black Adam	JW3		Showtimes	Sales	Black Adam	JW3
3:00-3:59	13,627	9,185	0		3:00-3:59	8,427	4,738	0
4:00-4:59	5,628	5,184	20,417		4:00-4:59	2,251	2,498	14,321
5:00-5:59	3,025	2,790	8,521		5:00-5:59	1,664	1,318	6,108
6:00-6:59	17,371	13,100	11,434		6:00-6:59	10,022	7,522	7,891
7:00-7:59	16,425	14,670	24,802		7:00-7:59	8,148	8,102	18,911
8:00-8:59	5,852	6,654	17,147		8:00-8:59	2,505	3,320	12,096
9:00-9:59	7,489	9,910	9,304		9:00-9:59	3,506	5,131	6,259
10:00-10:59	8,081	4,485	4,470		10:00-10:59	3,051	1,913	4,238
11:00-11:59	1,176	315	4,552		11:00-11:59	295	106	2,723
12:00+	94	201	115		12:00+	16	0	106
The Flash - Mountain Time Zone					The Flash - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	Black Adam	JW3		Showtimes	Sales	Black Adam	JW3
3:00-3:59	2,092	1,400	0		3:00-3:59	7,708	5,154	0
4:00-4:59	776	578	4,138		4:00-4:59	3,459	3,288	10,640
5:00-5:59	332	313	1,914		5:00-5:59	1,800	1,227	5,631
6:00-6:59	2,043	2,139	2,145		6:00-6:59	8,808	7,272	7,303
7:00-7:59	2,313	1,796	4,708		7:00-7:59	6,735	7,187	12,380
8:00-8:59	616	769	3,202		8:00-8:59	3,122	3,000	11,173
9:00-9:59	426	1,138	1,791		9:00-9:59	3,718	5,812	6,175
10:00-10:59	570	233	1,009		10:00-10:59	4,180	3,607	3,426
11:00-11:59	6	70	512		11:00-11:59	1,500	721	4,112
12:00+	10	0	37		12:00+	122	0	804

 

200k and low teens total previews are happening. 

Edited June 16, 2023 by excel1