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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

By Cap, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
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Posted by XXRDJisDoctorDoom,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

169k

 

The Flash - Eastern Time Zone   The Flash - Central Time Zone
Showtimes Sales Black Adam JW3   Showtimes Sales Black Adam JW3
3:00-3:59 13,627 9,185 0   3:00-3:59 8,427 4,738 0
4:00-4:59 5,628 5,184 20,417   4:00-4:59 2,251 2,498 14,321
5:00-5:59 3,025 2,790 8,521   5:00-5:59 1,664 1,318 6,108
6:00-6:59 17,371 13,100 11,434   6:00-6:59 10,022 7,522 7,891
7:00-7:59 16,425 14,670 24,802   7:00-7:59 8,148 8,102 18,911
8:00-8:59 5,852 6,654 17,147   8:00-8:59 2,505 3,320 12,096
9:00-9:59 7,489 9,910 9,304   9:00-9:59 3,506 5,131 6,259
10:00-10:59 8,081 4,485 4,470   10:00-10:59 3,051 1,913 4,238
11:00-11:59 1,176 315 4,552   11:00-11:59 295 106 2,723
12:00+ 94 201 115   12:00+ 16 0 106
                 
The Flash - Mountain Time Zone   The Flash - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes Sales Black Adam JW3   Showtimes Sales Black Adam JW3
3:00-3:59 2,092 1,400 0   3:00-3:59 7,708 5,154 0
4:00-4:59 776 578 4,138   4:00-4:59 3,459 3,288 10,640
5:00-5:59 332 313 1,914   5:00-5:59 1,800 1,227 5,631
6:00-6:59 2,043 2,139 2,145   6:00-6:59 8,808 7,272 7,303
7:00-7:59 2,313 1,796 4,708   7:00-7:59 6,735 7,187 12,380
8:00-8:59 616 769 3,202   8:00-8:59 3,122 3,000 11,173
9:00-9:59 426 1,138 1,791   9:00-9:59 3,718 5,812 6,175
10:00-10:59 570 233 1,009   10:00-10:59 4,180 3,607 3,426
11:00-11:59 6 70 512   11:00-11:59 1,500 721 4,112
12:00+ 10 0 37   12:00+ 122 0 804

Feels like maybe low 180s final? Your update for SV2 about an hour later was 314k and it added another 14k from there.

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ChipDerby Summer Tentpole

ChipDerby

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Mulder said:

A movie heavily featuring Batman with a big budget opening in the 60s (If that's how the numbers shape up) is not good no matter how you slice it. Justice League was a flop with a 90 million OW, this is opening even worse 6 years later. 

Right, but what does that... Mean? Nothing is going to happen if it bombs.

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excel1 Blockbuster

excel1

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

Right, but what does that... Mean? Nothing is going to happen if it bombs.

 

No idea why anyone is referencing pre covid performances. The disappointment entirely stems from everyone assuming this would be an epic breakout until about 3 weeks ago.

 

If we were all satisfied with Black Adam's $67m opening weekend....Flash matching or exceeding should get same reaction. 

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titanic2187 Summer Tentpole

titanic2187

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, excel1 said:

 

No idea why anyone is referencing pre covid performances. The disappointment entirely stems from everyone assuming this would be an epic breakout until about 3 weeks ago.

 

If we were all satisfied with Black Adam's $67m opening weekend....Flash matching or exceeding should get same reaction. 

I think we are referencing the best SH movie of all time.  

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excel1 Blockbuster

excel1

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

I think we are referencing the best SH movie of all time.  

 

2008 was a long time ago. 

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vafrow Box Office Gold

vafrow

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Flash T-0, Milton, Ontario

 

As of close of early shows. Using my final sales comps though, so amounts will likely increase a bit, but historically, rarely above 10%, but I'll try and update later

 

Final sales as of early show close is 109, with a 45% day of increase, which is on the low end of my expectations.

 

Comps are converging, just not at a number that aligns to other trackers, but feels internally consistent.

 

0.796x of Fast X for $6.0M

0.982x of ROTB for $7.5M

0.321x of ATSV for $5.6M

0.413 of GOTG3 for $7.2M

0.872 of John Wick 4 for $7.8M

 

Some quick observations

 

Unless everyone else is wildly off, my theatre is just a place where this is underperforming. My biggest theory is that being a market where school is still in session, it's depressing the Thursday sales. But, Friday to Sunday doesn't particularly look strong.

 

I also wonder if the lack of appeal for kids is hurting this market that has a lot of young families. JW4 being an adult focused film as the best comp supports to some degree, but still well below consensus.

 

I'll check in later tonight with an update on where final figures land. 

 

Near enough to the late show, so, checking back in. Sales went up about 10%, so that can be added to the numbers above. That brings the range to about $6.2-$8.6M. Still lagging other markets, but bridges the gap.

 

It's a shame we don't have more data on other Canadian markets, as I'd be keen to see if this is regional or just hyper local.

 

Also, on Elemental, final sales are 15 tickets sold, from the 3 at start of day. Nothing really to compare that to. Although, presales for the weekend is already so high that if no other tickets were sold, the weekend multiple for my theatre would be 10.6:1 against previews, so, it will hold up well.

 

 

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ZackM Box Office Gold

ZackM

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ZackM said:

 

169k

 

The Flash - Eastern Time Zone   The Flash - Central Time Zone
Showtimes Sales Black Adam JW3   Showtimes Sales Black Adam JW3
3:00-3:59 13,627 9,185 0   3:00-3:59 8,427 4,738 0
4:00-4:59 5,628 5,184 20,417   4:00-4:59 2,251 2,498 14,321
5:00-5:59 3,025 2,790 8,521   5:00-5:59 1,664 1,318 6,108
6:00-6:59 17,371 13,100 11,434   6:00-6:59 10,022 7,522 7,891
7:00-7:59 16,425 14,670 24,802   7:00-7:59 8,148 8,102 18,911
8:00-8:59 5,852 6,654 17,147   8:00-8:59 2,505 3,320 12,096
9:00-9:59 7,489 9,910 9,304   9:00-9:59 3,506 5,131 6,259
10:00-10:59 8,081 4,485 4,470   10:00-10:59 3,051 1,913 4,238
11:00-11:59 1,176 315 4,552   11:00-11:59 295 106 2,723
12:00+ 94 201 115   12:00+ 16 0 106
                 
The Flash - Mountain Time Zone   The Flash - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes Sales Black Adam JW3   Showtimes Sales Black Adam JW3
3:00-3:59 2,092 1,400 0   3:00-3:59 7,708 5,154 0
4:00-4:59 776 578 4,138   4:00-4:59 3,459 3,288 10,640
5:00-5:59 332 313 1,914   5:00-5:59 1,800 1,227 5,631
6:00-6:59 2,043 2,139 2,145   6:00-6:59 8,808 7,272 7,303
7:00-7:59 2,313 1,796 4,708   7:00-7:59 6,735 7,187 12,380
8:00-8:59 616 769 3,202   8:00-8:59 3,122 3,000 11,173
9:00-9:59 426 1,138 1,791   9:00-9:59 3,718 5,812 6,175
10:00-10:59 570 233 1,009   10:00-10:59 4,180 3,607 3,426
11:00-11:59 6 70 512   11:00-11:59 1,500 721 4,112
12:00+ 10 0 37   12:00+ 122 0 804

 

 

177k

 

The Flash - Eastern Time Zone   The Flash - Central Time Zone
Showtimes Sales Black Adam JW3   Showtimes Sales Black Adam JW3
3:00-3:59 13,689 9,185 0   3:00-3:59 8,506 4,738 0
4:00-4:59 5,662 5,184 20,417   4:00-4:59 2,255 2,498 14,321
5:00-5:59 3,044 2,790 8,521   5:00-5:59 1,656 1,318 6,108
6:00-6:59 17,401 13,100 11,434   6:00-6:59 10,099 7,522 7,891
7:00-7:59 16,565 14,670 24,802   7:00-7:59 8,764 8,102 18,911
8:00-8:59 6,758 6,654 17,147   8:00-8:59 3,273 3,320 12,096
9:00-9:59 8,423 9,910 9,304   9:00-9:59 4,007 5,131 6,259
10:00-10:59 9,029 4,485 4,470   10:00-10:59 3,421 1,913 4,238
11:00-11:59 1,251 315 4,552   11:00-11:59 341 106 2,723
12:00+ 113 201 115   12:00+ 18 0 106
                 
The Flash - Mountain Time Zone   The Flash - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes Sales Black Adam JW3   Showtimes Sales Black Adam JW3
3:00-3:59 2,099 1,400 0   3:00-3:59 7,730 5,154 0
4:00-4:59 788 578 4,138   4:00-4:59 3,468 3,288 10,640
5:00-5:59 336 313 1,914   5:00-5:59 1,891 1,227 5,631
6:00-6:59 2,174 2,139 2,145   6:00-6:59 9,126 7,272 7,303
7:00-7:59 2,536 1,796 4,708   7:00-7:59 7,152 7,187 12,380
8:00-8:59 700 769 3,202   8:00-8:59 3,413 3,000 11,173
9:00-9:59 493 1,138 1,791   9:00-9:59 3,895 5,812 6,175
10:00-10:59 602 233 1,009   10:00-10:59 4,420 3,607 3,426
11:00-11:59 8 70 512   11:00-11:59 1,596 721 4,112
12:00+ 10 0 37   12:00+ 129 0 804
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DAJK Global Phenomenon

DAJK

Posted
Posted

Uhhhh, so I was optimistic about Flash earlier this afternoon. But looking at walkups this evening.

 

I might honestly join a sub-50 train…

realistically, mid-50s

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LVB Indie Sensation

LVB

Posted
Posted
On 5/24/2023 at 12:10 AM, excel1 said:

Flash obliterating Black Adam presales is a good sign. Black Adam opened to a solid $67m. Flash of course should have higher expectations and resales were in line there. 

 

14 minutes ago, excel1 said:

If we were all satisfied with Black Adam's $67m opening weekend....Flash matching or exceeding should get same reaction. 

 

??

 

 

 

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Uhhhh, so I was optimistic about Flash earlier this afternoon. But looking at walkups this evening.

 

I might honestly join a sub-50 train…

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Sub-50 is impossible at this stage. Even mid-50s fairly unlikely since walkups today were decent. It seems to be heading for the low 60 range but I'll be curious for the final alpha Fri ps update if we get one.

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ZackM Box Office Gold

ZackM

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Kind of odd that the way earlier shows are increasing or is that normal?

It's mainly just noise from a couple shows that may have failed on a previous run.

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excel1 Blockbuster

excel1

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

Parking lot empty for my theatre, bomb incoming.  (My theatre doesn't have a parking lot) 

 

Quote

The Federal Government of the United States has announced emergency mass eminent domain implementation throughout the continental US for the purpose of constructing rapid mass movie theaters to meet unprecedented demand for cinematic experience known as "The Flash"

 

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excel1 Blockbuster

excel1

Posted
Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

 

177k

 

The Flash - Eastern Time Zone   The Flash - Central Time Zone
Showtimes Sales Black Adam JW3   Showtimes Sales Black Adam JW3
3:00-3:59 13,689 9,185 0   3:00-3:59 8,506 4,738 0
4:00-4:59 5,662 5,184 20,417   4:00-4:59 2,255 2,498 14,321
5:00-5:59 3,044 2,790 8,521   5:00-5:59 1,656 1,318 6,108
6:00-6:59 17,401 13,100 11,434   6:00-6:59 10,099 7,522 7,891
7:00-7:59 16,565 14,670 24,802   7:00-7:59 8,764 8,102 18,911
8:00-8:59 6,758 6,654 17,147   8:00-8:59 3,273 3,320 12,096
9:00-9:59 8,423 9,910 9,304   9:00-9:59 4,007 5,131 6,259
10:00-10:59 9,029 4,485 4,470   10:00-10:59 3,421 1,913 4,238
11:00-11:59 1,251 315 4,552   11:00-11:59 341 106 2,723
12:00+ 113 201 115   12:00+ 18 0 106
                 
The Flash - Mountain Time Zone   The Flash - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes Sales Black Adam JW3   Showtimes Sales Black Adam JW3
3:00-3:59 2,099 1,400 0   3:00-3:59 7,730 5,154 0
4:00-4:59 788 578 4,138   4:00-4:59 3,468 3,288 10,640
5:00-5:59 336 313 1,914   5:00-5:59 1,891 1,227 5,631
6:00-6:59 2,174 2,139 2,145   6:00-6:59 9,126 7,272 7,303
7:00-7:59 2,536 1,796 4,708   7:00-7:59 7,152 7,187 12,380
8:00-8:59 700 769 3,202   8:00-8:59 3,413 3,000 11,173
9:00-9:59 493 1,138 1,791   9:00-9:59 3,895 5,812 6,175
10:00-10:59 602 233 1,009   10:00-10:59 4,420 3,607 3,426
11:00-11:59 8 70 512   11:00-11:59 1,596 721 4,112
12:00+ 10 0 37   12:00+ 129 0 804

 

1) What a fascinating breakdown to review.

2) This does indeed point to a finish >200k if trends hold through 3 AM eastern unless west coast is abnormally presage heavy. 

Edited by excel1
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