The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Sckathian]

Barbie seems like a good example of a marketing team with a (potentially) brilliant product building up expectations. The teaser made clear there was an in-joke to this and the subsequent trailers have picked that up.

[MysteryMovieMogul]

Can someone here give me a ELI5 look at next month's films? The Box Office Subreddit seems to believe everything except Disney will succeed.

 

I know the real answer is more nuanced, and I'd love someone here to give me the real outlook on July.

Edited June 26, 2023 by MysteryMovieMogul
typos

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Sound of Freedom T-8: 18.52% Awareness

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1 T-16: 52.67% Awareness

Oppenheimer T-25: 30.7% Awareness

Challengers T-81: 15.52% Awareness

The Boys in the Boat T-182: 10% Awareness

The Color Purple T-182: 29.28% Awareness,

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny T-4: 59.37% Awareness

Final Awareness: 47% chance of 40M, 35% chance of 50M, 23% chance of 60M, 18% chance of 90M, 12% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 50% chance of 50M

 

Ruby Gillman: Teenage Kraken T-4: 29.29% Awareness

Final Awareness: 12% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

 

Insidious: The Red Door T-11: 47.61% Awareness

Final Awareness: 88% chance of 10M, 58% chance of 20M, 35% chance of 30M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 83% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 40M

 

Haunted Mansion T-32: 40.43% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 77% chance of 40M, 54% chance of 50M

Known IP Awareness: 100% chance of 40M

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, Eric Wayne said:

Quorum Updates

Sound of Freedom T-8: 18.52% Awareness

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1 T-16: 52.67% Awareness

Oppenheimer T-25: 30.7% Awareness

Challengers T-81: 15.52% Awareness

The Boys in the Boat T-182: 10% Awareness

The Color Purple T-182: 29.28% Awareness,

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny T-4: 59.37% Awareness

Final Awareness: 47% chance of 40M, 35% chance of 50M, 23% chance of 60M, 18% chance of 90M, 12% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 50% chance of 50M

 

Ruby Gillman: Teenage Kraken T-4: 29.29% Awareness

Final Awareness: 12% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

 

Insidious: The Red Door T-11: 47.61% Awareness

Final Awareness: 88% chance of 10M, 58% chance of 20M, 35% chance of 30M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 83% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 40M

 

Haunted Mansion T-32: 40.43% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 77% chance of 40M, 54% chance of 50M

Known IP Awareness: 100% chance of 40M

 

12% it is then.

[MysteryMovieMogul]

I mean, I know Indiana Jones is going to underwhelm domestically, but then I read dumb shit like:

[el sid]

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 224 (8 showtimes, 4 Sell Outs reported, not true IMO)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 160 (14 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 29 (6 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 20 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 7 (6 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 329 (12 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 545 (12 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.314.

Comps (all counted on Monday of the release week for Friday): BT (30M OW) had 321 sold tickets,
JW4 (73.8M) had 1.755,
TG: M (126.7M) had 2.743,
Uncharted (44M) had 715,
Fast X (67M) had 1.434,
Dungeons & Dragon (37.2M) had 644,
TLC (30.5M) had 196

and Death on the Nile (12.9M) had 198 sold tickets.
JWD (145.1M) had on Tuesday = 1 day later 4.168 sold tickets. Indy 5 should be at over 1.500 tickets tomorrow. Close to 2k tickets would be fine of course but I doubt that it will have such a big jump.

So at the moment the Friday presales in my theaters do neither look bad (also compared to sequels) nor stellar (means way under 100M OW but better than 50M OW). The only comp which still looks weak (around 50M OW) is JWD. Idk if Indy will have more or less walk-ups. IMO both films have the burden of not so well-received predecessors but Indy has the advantage that it definitely is the last Indiana Jones film with H. Ford.
But let's see Indy's jumps in the next few days first. Could go both ways.

[Dragoncaine]

4 hours ago, M37 said:

Another 3 days of data ... and not much has changed. Still some room for a surprise - either positive or negative -  but all indications are suggesting a pretty straightforward finish, as most samples and comps are trending towards convergence probably just shy of $8M

 

NOTE: Averages include values not shown on the graph

 

No recent updates on sales past Thursday, but see post a few spots back regarding summer IMs, and don't think we'll see any surprise there either.

 

An preview at or below $8M, an IM around or just below 7x, and O/U Flash's $55M OW still seems like the general cut line (ie Forecast Matrix in quoted post still holds), though leaning more towards slightly below than above. Even over $50M isn't assured just yet

Thanks, Oppenheimer. We're in the summer of megabombs 

[MysteryMovieMogul]

9 minutes ago, el sid said:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 224 (8 showtimes, 4 Sell Outs reported, not true IMO)

Okay, see, this is what confuses me. I see numbers, I see stats, and then I see "not true IMO" which is commentary.

[Maggie]

3 hours ago, Sckathian said:

Barbie seems like a good example of a marketing team with a (potentially) brilliant product building up expectations. The teaser made clear there was an in-joke to this and the subsequent trailers have picked that up.

Yes, i can't believe how perfectly WB is handling the Barbie marketing. And Universal is doing a great job with Oppenheimer too. I can't say the same about MI:DR which is gonna underperform its potential imo. It was a big mistake to schedule it at this date

[TwoMisfits]

6 hours ago, M37 said:

Another 3 days of data ... and not much has changed. Still some room for a surprise - either positive or negative -  but all indications are suggesting a pretty straightforward finish, as most samples and comps are trending towards convergence probably just shy of $8M

 

NOTE: Averages include values not shown on the graph

 

No recent updates on sales past Thursday, but see post a few spots back regarding summer IMs, and don't think we'll see any surprise there either.

 

An preview at or below $8M, an IM around or just below 7x, and O/U Flash's $55M OW still seems like the general cut line (ie Forecast Matrix in quoted post still holds), though leaning more towards slightly below than above. Even over $50M isn't assured just yet

 

Okay, I come back from 8 days of vacation, and I see this...now, I thought Indy was always going low, but we may be getting to the point where I'd be even kinda shocked by how low.  It's gotta be over $50M OW...I think...although now maybe I better check my local theaters to see if they have early final sets...

[WrathOfHan]

2 hours ago, Eric Wayne said:

Quorum Updates

Sound of Freedom T-8: 18.52% Awareness

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1 T-16: 52.67% Awareness

Oppenheimer T-25: 30.7% Awareness

Challengers T-81: 15.52% Awareness

The Boys in the Boat T-182: 10% Awareness

The Color Purple T-182: 29.28% Awareness,

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny T-4: 59.37% Awareness

Final Awareness: 47% chance of 40M, 35% chance of 50M, 23% chance of 60M, 18% chance of 90M, 12% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 50% chance of 50M

 

Ruby Gillman: Teenage Kraken T-4: 29.29% Awareness

Final Awareness: 12% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

 

Insidious: The Red Door T-11: 47.61% Awareness

Final Awareness: 88% chance of 10M, 58% chance of 20M, 35% chance of 30M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 83% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 40M

 

Haunted Mansion T-32: 40.43% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 77% chance of 40M, 54% chance of 50M

Known IP Awareness: 100% chance of 40M

That's insane for Haunted Mansion.

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

 

INSIDIOUS: THE RED DOOR

 

THURSDAY

 

T-11

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
59	184	9738	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

18

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-11

 

(2.217x) of BOOGEYMAN

~$2.4M THUR Previews

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

 

INSIDIOUS: THE RED DOOR

 

THURSDAY

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
59	193	9738	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

9

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-10

 

(2.218x) of BOOGEYMAN

~$2.4M THUR Previews

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

OPPENHEIMER

 

THURSDAY previews

 

T-25

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
78	1071	13845	7.6%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

10

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

OPPENHEIMER

 

THURSDAY previews

 

T-24

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
78	1078	13845	7.8%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

7

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

[abracadabra1998]

On 6/25/2023 at 1:13 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Twin Cities Previews:

 

My Asteroid City and NHF numbers got me thinking about my inner-city bias as a resident of Minneapolis, so I spent some time today adding more theaters that better represent the twin cities metro as a whole. I think it'll make my sample more representative of a Midwest metro. Every "New" section today will therefore be N/A.

 

Indiana Jones (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	79	N/A	993	13621	7.29

 

Ruby Gillman (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 9 theaters	32	N/A	23	3073	0.75

 

Will update these daily until release on Thursday.

 

Insidious: Red Door (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	36	N/A	35	4682	0.75

 

Joy Ride (T-11):

Day: T-11, T-10	Shows	Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 16 theaters	48	N/A	25	4219	0.59
Wednesday EA: 14 theaters	14	N/A	22	1387	1.59
TOTALS:	62	N/A	47	5606	0.84

 

Barbie (T-25):

Day: T-25, T-24	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	64	N/A	396	10062	3.94
Wednesday EA: 6 theaters	6	N/A	658	1221	53.89
TOTALS:	70	N/A	1054	11283	9.34

 

Extremely frontloaded with previews so far, but its total is already more than Oppy.

 

Oppenheimer (T-25):

Day: T-25	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	52	N/A	834	9415	8.86

 

 

 

 

Twin Cities Previews:

 

Indiana Jones (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	109	244	1444	19200	7.52

 

The numbers I posted from T-4 were a bit off, I caught a mistake after I posted them. These are all correct. Very good day locally I would say, a number of shows added as well. 

 

Ruby Gillman (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 9 theaters	32	3	26	3073	0.85

 

DOA.

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One

 

Tuesday

 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
166	997	33846	2.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

23

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

EA

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
11	548	2148	25.5%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

 

Mi7 Walmart+ Special 

 

MTC1 = 29 sold / 291 seats  (+0)

MTC2 = 31 sold / 114 seats  (+0)

 

COMPS

T-16

 

(0.878x) of RoTB

$7.4M TUES

 

(0.534x) of INDY 5

$???

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One

 

Tuesday

 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
166	1009	33846	3.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

EA

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
11	553	2148	25.7%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

 

Mi7 Walmart+ Special 

 

MTC1 = 31 sold / 291 seats  (+2)

MTC2 = 31 sold / 114 seats  (+0)

 

COMPS

T-15

 

(0.818x) of RoTB

$7.2M TUES

 

(0.529x) of INDY 5

$???

 

Pace hasn't been great. Still time for recovery, but I just don't see a $100M 5 day weekend here...

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Barbie

 

Thursday

 

T-25

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
119	1573	22198	7.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

192

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

 

EA

T-24

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
9	1208	1747	69.1%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

37

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

4

 

 

COMPS

T-25

*Excludes any EA

 

(1.725x) of RoTB

~$15.2M THUR Previews

 

The pace is amazing. This probably gets close to $100M OW

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Barbie

 

Thursday

 

T-24

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
119	1612	22198	7.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

39

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

 

EA

T-23

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
9	1239	1747	70.9%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

31

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

5

 

 

COMPS

T-24

*Excludes any EA

 

(1.677x) of RoTB

~$14.8M THUR Previews

 

Hopefully pace picks back up again. EA showings are almost completely gone 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

RUBY GILLMAN, TEENAGE KRAKEN

 

THURSDAY

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
77	121	11728	1.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-4

(0.149x) of ELEMENTAL

~$360K THUR Previews

 

No sign of life. This feels DOA 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

RUBY GILLMAN, TEENAGE KRAKEN

 

THURSDAY

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
90	148	13866	1.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

27

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

13

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-3

(0.165x) of ELEMENTAL

~$400K THUR Previews

Probably ~$5M OW

 

Finally, it sold double digits seats lmao 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

 

THURSDAY

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
186	2617	37839	6.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

99

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(0.780x) of THE FLASH

~$7.5M THUR Previews

 

(1.298x) of FAST X

~$9.7M THUR Previews

 

(0.684x) of TLM

~$7.0M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG : $8.1M

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

 

THURSDAY

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
197	2806	40753	6.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

189

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

11

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(0.777x) of THE FLASH

~$7.5M THUR Previews

 

(1.271x) of FAST X

~$9.5M THUR Previews

 

(0.681x) of TLM

~$7.0M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG : $8M

[filmlover]

I can see Haunted Mansion doing similar numbers to Jungle Cruise (which did pretty well considering it was PVOD the same time as theaters). Marketing for it is bound to take off once Indiana Jones is out of the way after this weekend and it's easy to imagine that Disney is likely going to target underserved demographics (black audiences, in particular) considering how white-heavy (one has to guess) the demos for Mission: Impossible/Barbie/Oppenheimer will all likely be.

[misterpepp]

On 6/23/2023 at 6:40 PM, datpepper said:

First Slam Dunk also on sale June 28.

 

This moved back a day to the 29th.