The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

49 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

So F9 is not Ontario adjusted atm, to be clear?

 

Hmmm... No it isn't.  Not currently.  I plum forgot to adj for Ont for that since I've been so used to no longer comping for lack of Ont since most of my recent comps haven't needed it.

 

Too many different things to keep track of, really (plus I'm busy running/overseeing a fantasy baseball slow draft elsewhere so my attention is a little divided). So, yeah.  Gotta account for that I think.  Only for F9 tho as I'm not using AQP II or BW which should be the only other ones I tracked without Ontario numbers.
 

Thanks for the catch on that, but I'll deal with that tomorrow.

Edited April 5, 2022 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

Sonic 2 MTC2

Previews(T-3) - 24013/273814 302622.10 1732 shows

Friday - 37986/392421 423317.55 2400 shows

 

Previews was as of last night and I let the friday run overnight. Still its backloaded as expected.

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Sonic 2 MTC2

Previews(T-3) - 24013/273814 302622.10 1732 shows

Friday - 37986/392421 423317.55 2400 shows

 

Previews was as of last night and I let the friday run overnight. Still its backloaded as expected.

 

Friday is similar to F9 MTC2 at the same point. Really good. 

[charlie Jatinder]

38 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Sonic 2 MTC2

Previews(T-3) - 24013/273814 302622.10 1732 shows

Friday - 37986/392421 423317.55 2400 shows

 

Previews was as of last night and I let the friday run overnight. Still its backloaded as expected.

 

Thanks keyser. There are early access screenings if those can be done.

 

Edit: These feel good for $7M previews and $70M ish weekend. Let's see if we get Alpha as well. Thanks Keyser.

 

Edited April 5, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Legion Again]

29 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Friday is similar to F9 MTC2 at the same point. Really good. 

F9 mtc 2 was inflated by mtc1 capacity limits at the time, iirc? In which case even better for Sonic.

[Tinalera]

7 hours ago, Porthos said:

Also, for the F9 comp it doesn't include three theaters in town that I currently have info for but didn't have reliable info for F9.  So the "Final Sold" for F9 will be basically All Theaters In The Region Minus Those Troublesome Three.

 

So, basically, yes tonight Sonic 2 had a 1:1 against F9 at all other theaters in town.

 

@Thanos Legion

 

ETA:::

 

Honestly, if it was up to me, I'd just nuke the F9 comp for "more trouble than it's worth", exxxxxxcept at 7.1m it's right at the bar I like to use for tracking and it's currently the only post-2020 non-CBM I have that cleared 7m and it was backloaded enough compared to other films I have that it's a useful benchmark for films that aren't quite as frontloaded as some.

 

So, unfortunately, it sticks around until I have more things that are better.

Something something Confirmation Bias. I see the REAL tricks of the trade now on Box Office Tracking thread!   Im shocked, SHOCKED!  LOL

 

 

Looks like FB3 (you know it took me to today to realize that FB3 was the Secrets of Dumbledore?)  tracking Ill be doing this week for Toronto.

 

Edited April 5, 2022 by Tinalera

[Borobudur]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Sonic 2 MTC2

Previews(T-3) - 24013/273814 302622.10 1732 shows

Friday - 37986/392421 423317.55 2400 shows

 

Previews was as of last night and I let the friday run overnight. Still its backloaded as expected.

 

Wow, S2 maybe the biggest opening for Paramount since.....T4?

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/4/2022 at 9:07 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-10	Fantastic Beasts 3	Jacksonville	6	53	10,314	254	39	2.46%
		Phoenix	6	43	8,541	245	15	2.87%
		Raleigh	8	41	5,253	341	31	6.49%
	Fantastic Beasts 3 Total		20	137	24,108	840	85	3.48%
T-2	Sonic (EA)	Jacksonville	5	6	942	128	13	13.59%
		Phoenix	1	1	208	119	27	57.21%
		Raleigh	1	1	261	58	19	22.22%
	Sonic (EA) Total		7	8	1,411	305	59	21.62%
T-3	Ambulance	Jacksonville	6	14	2,457	9	2	0.37%
		Phoenix	6	12	2,309	29	3	1.26%
		Raleigh	8	10	1,163	22	3	1.89%
	Ambulance Total		20	36	5,929	60	8	1.01%
T-3	Sonic	Jacksonville	6	40	6,196	269	38	4.34%
		Phoenix	6	23	4,080	342	54	8.38%
		Raleigh	8	25	3,364	274	19	8.15%
	Sonic Total		20	88	13,640	885	111	6.49%

 

Sonic 2 T-3 comps (Thu sales only)

 - Ghostbusters - .97x (4.01m)

 - Uncharted - 1.31x (4.84m)

 - F9 - .61x (4.34m)

 - Lost City - 3.24x (8.1m)

 

Here's how Sonic is performing against more similar movies:

 - Boss Baby - 8.85x (11.59m)

 - Peter Rabbit - 10.17x (9.155m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 3.7x (9.997m)

 - Encanto - 4.63x (6.95m)

 

I don't know where this will end up, but sales are looking really good so far.

 

Ambulance T-3 comps

 - Snake Eyes - .36x (509k)

 - Resident Evil - .536x (501k)

 - Green Knight - .69x (517k)

 

These three comps are converging around 500k; let's see if it can pick up any momentum this week.

 

Sonic 2 EA T-2 comp

 - Sing 2 EA - .41x

 

Fantastic Beasts 3 T-10 comps

 - Shang Chi - .978x (8.605m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.776x (7.37m)

 - NTTD - 1.78x (9.254m)

 - F9 - 1.04x (7.381m)

 

Increased against all four comps again

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-1	Sonic (EA)	Jacksonville	5	6	942	180	52	19.11%
		Phoenix	1	1	208	131	12	62.98%
		Raleigh	1	1	261	69	11	26.44%
	Sonic (EA) Total		7	8	1,411	380	75	26.93%
T-2	Ambulance	Jacksonville	6	15	2,840	19	10	0.67%
		Phoenix	6	15	2,490	42	13	1.69%
		Raleigh	8	13	1,608	29	7	1.80%
	Ambulance Total		20	43	6,938	90	30	1.30%
T-2	Sonic	Jacksonville	6	40	6,196	320	51	5.16%
		Phoenix	6	35	5,056	383	41	7.58%
		Raleigh	8	29	3,621	369	95	10.19%
	Sonic Total		20	104	14,873	1,072	187	7.21%
T-9	Fantastic Beasts 3	Jacksonville	6	53	10,314	281	27	2.72%
		Phoenix	6	43	8,541	266	21	3.11%
		Raleigh	8	41	5,253	357	16	6.80%
	Fantastic Beasts 3 Total		20	137	24,108	904	64	3.75%

 

Sonic 2 EA T-1 comp

 - Sing 2 EA - .4x

 

Sonic 2 T-2 comps (Thu sales only)

 - Ghostbusters - .98x (4.08m)

 - Uncharted - 1.378x (5.098m)

 - F9 - .62x (4.399m)

 - Lost City - 3.07x (7.68m)

 

Here's how Sonic is performing against more similar movies:

 - Boss Baby - 7.39x (9.68m)

 - Peter Rabbit - 10.31x (9.28m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 3.27x (8.82m)

 - Encanto - 4.43x (6.64m)

 

Ambulance T-2 comps

 - Snake Eyes - .39x (550k)

 - Resident Evil - .65x (605k)

 - Green Knight - .56x (417k)

 

So much for convergence.

 

Fantastic Beasts 3 T-9 comps

 - Shang Chi - .926x (8.15m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - NTTD - 1.72x (8.92m)

 - F9 - 1.05x (7.43m)

[Ezen Baklattan]

9 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

It's somewhat similarly following French Dispatch. 

 

Everything opened in 10 theaters and expanded to 38 in weekend 2 for 1.07m and 28.3k PTA. French Dispatch opened in 52 theaters for 1.34m and a 25.9k PTA. 

 

Dispatch expanded to 788 theaters the following week for 2.6m. 3302 average. So if it's around there (and under 1k theaters), then probably a 2.5m range?

 

But it's A24 which has as loyal a brand as Wes Anderson does and it could be going as wide as over 1000. Anyway, the Cinemark doesn't have any weekend showtimes listed for it yet so uncertain how wide it goes. The AMC has Friday showtimes but not Thursday. Maybe showtimes just went up and people are unaware/waiting for Thursday:

 

EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE

AMC FRIDAY (1)

250 (0), 430 (0), 610 (0), 750 (1), 930 (0)

Director confirmed 1,200 theaters for this weekend.

[katnisscinnaplex]

Santikos Tracking

 

Format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New Sls	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Sonic 2 (EA)	PLF	3	554	554	822	67.40%	$14.80	$8,197.36
		Standard	1	83	83	231	35.93%	$15.16	$1,258.28
	Sonic 2 (EA) Total		4	637	637	1,053	60.49%	$14.84	$9,455.64
T-2	Ambulance	PLF	4	4	4	992	0.40%	$15.16	$60.64
		Standard	14	4	6	1,463	0.41%	$10.51	$63.04
	Ambulance Total		18	8	10	2,455	0.41%	$12.37	$123.68
T-2	Sonic 2	PLF	15	116	460	4,362	10.55%	$14.28	$6,567.20
		Standard	44	142	545	6,803	8.01%	$10.52	$5,734.14
	Sonic 2 Total		59	258	1,005	11,165	9.00%	$12.24	$12,301.34
T-9	FB3	PLF	22	37	355	5,844	6.07%	$14.73	$5,228.81
		Standard	33	28	168	4,266	3.94%	$11.16	$1,874.67
	FB3 Total		55	65	523	10,110	5.17%	$13.58	$7,103.48

 

Matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New Sls	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	Sonic 2	N	40	214	809	7,677	10.54%	$12.74	$10,307.73
		Y	19	44	196	3,488	5.62%	$10.17	$1,993.61
	Sonic 2 Total		59	258	1,005	11,165	9.00%	$12.24	$12,301.34
T-9	FB3	N	38	66	479	7,094	6.75%	$13.87	$6,644.22
		Y	17	-1	44	3,016	1.46%	$10.44	$459.26
	FB3 Total		55	65	523	10,110	5.17%	$13.58	$7,103.48

 

Early access looking really good for Sonic.  Morbius was at 1,137 preview sales at this point; thinking Sonic will pass it when all is said and done.  I didn't start Morbius until T-3 (942), but I would think FB3 is likely ahead of it as well.

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

F9 mtc 2 was inflated by mtc1 capacity limits at the time, iirc? In which case even better for Sonic.

Thursday was. Friday ratios were normal.

[XXR & Friends]

DS2 show times starting to populate. Not starting off with a major slate for Thursday. The eyeball test says it’s less than The Batman got.

[ThomasNicole]

I don't know if this is worth of tracking since the marketing is tepid, but it's on sale

 

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

48 minutes ago, KnucklesXXR said:

DS2 show times starting to populate. Not starting off with a major slate for Thursday. The eyeball test says it’s less than The Batman got.

Less than Batman total currently, but more per theater.

 

Batman preview shows T-3 weeks - 21,077 shows in 2,439 theaters (8.642 per)

DS2 preview shows T-4 weeks - 15,440 shows in 1,242 theaters (12.43 per)

 

Obviously still missing a ton of locations; maybe those include smaller chains that will bring down the average, but I'm getting a headache just pulling in the shows I'm planning on tracking.

 

For reference though, here's where other CBM finished:

Black Widow - 23,129 (3,109 TC)

Shang-Chi - 15,697 (3,026)

Venom 2 - 21,288 (3,024)

Eternals - 14,155 (3,086)

Spider-Man - 40,351 (3,270)

Batman - 30,665 (3,334)

Morbius - 17,516 (3,086)

[keysersoze123]

4 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Thanks keyser. There are early access screenings if those can be done.

 

Edit: These feel good for $7M previews and $70M ish weekend. Let's see if we get Alpha as well. Thanks Keyser.

 

MTC2 Sonic Early Shows  - 8379/28577 136983.50 141 shows. 

 

Still lots of available tickets. I think families will wait for weekend but this could help add a million or so to previews. @katnisscinnaplex how many shows across all chains?

[DAJK]

Everything Everywhere is selling VERY well locally. I think it will maintain a really strong PTA this weekend, even at 1200 locations.

[katnisscinnaplex]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC2 Sonic Early Shows  - 8379/28577 136983.50 141 shows. 

 

Still lots of available tickets. I think families will wait for weekend but this could help add a million or so to previews. @katnisscinnaplex how many shows across all chains?

I'm seeing 750 total, with 407 of them being PLF of some kind

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, KnucklesXXR said:

DS2 show times starting to populate. Not starting off with a major slate for Thursday. The eyeball test says it’s less than The Batman got.

Definitely no where near the craziness that we saw with NWH. Which thankfully makes tracking easier :-) There is time to add more shows as shows sell out. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

46 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Less than Batman total currently, but more per theater.

 

Batman preview shows T-3 weeks - 21,077 shows in 2,439 theaters (8.642 per)

DS2 preview shows T-4 weeks - 15,440 shows in 1,242 theaters (12.43 per)

 

Obviously still missing a ton of locations; maybe those include smaller chains that will bring down the average, but I'm getting a headache just pulling in the shows I'm planning on tracking.

 

For reference though, here's where other CBM finished:

Black Widow - 23,129 (3,109 TC)

Shang-Chi - 15,697 (3,026)

Venom 2 - 21,288 (3,024)

Eternals - 14,155 (3,086)

Spider-Man - 40,351 (3,270)

Batman - 30,665 (3,334)

Morbius - 17,516 (3,086)

I just refreshed after noticing that three more of my tracked theaters had put up listings.  Up to 15,730 in 1,299 theaters and it officially passed Shang-Chi final show count.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, KnucklesXXR said:

DS2 show times starting to populate. Not starting off with a major slate for Thursday. The eyeball test says it’s less than The Batman got.

 

39 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Less than Batman total currently, but more per theater.

 

Batman preview shows T-3 weeks - 21,077 shows in 2,439 theaters (8.642 per)

DS2 preview shows T-4 weeks - 15,440 shows in 1,242 theaters (12.43 per)

 

Obviously still missing a ton of locations; maybe those include smaller chains that will bring down the average, but I'm getting a headache just pulling in the shows I'm planning on tracking.

 

For reference though, here's where other CBM finished:

Black Widow - 23,129 (3,109 TC)

Shang-Chi - 15,697 (3,026)

Venom 2 - 21,288 (3,024)

Eternals - 14,155 (3,086)

Spider-Man - 40,351 (3,270)

Batman - 30,665 (3,334)

Morbius - 17,516 (3,086)

 

Locally five theaters don't have any showtimes up yet, but on a like-for-like basis [and not including any DBOX showtimes]:

 

NWH:         177 showtimes

Batsy:         175 showtimes (includes various early showtimes)

Strange 2:  215 showtimes

 

That was the initial set for NWH.  It, um, went up from there.

 

So, yeah.  Locally at least theaters are going all-in on Strange 2.