The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[interiorgatordecorator]

7 minutes ago, T-ReXXR said:

Looks like Canada and some of the more "liberal" markets are underperforming a bit compared to "The Batman

 

boooooooo 

[motionpic05]

Just out of curiosity, why would Top Gun underperform in non- republican parties? 

Is it because of Cruise? 

 

In a very liberal part of Canada, the film seems to be doing meh in pre sales, but doing great with walk-ups.

[M37]

5 minutes ago, motionpic05 said:

Just out of curiosity, why would Top Gun underperform in non- republican parties? 

Is it because of Cruise? 

 

In a very liberal part of Canada, the film seems to be doing meh in pre sales, but doing great with walk-ups.

Not because of anything overly political, just demographics and taste, where a military action film is going to play better in some areas than others. The opposite of how Everything Everything is skewing much more to cities and coasts 

[Potiki]

7 minutes ago, motionpic05 said:

Just out of curiosity, why would Top Gun underperform in non- republican parties? 

Is it because of Cruise? 

 

In a very liberal part of Canada, the film seems to be doing meh in pre sales, but doing great with walk-ups.

It is probably viewed as pro military propaganda by some liberals, the first was a major driver of increased military sign ups, so anti-war people are probably not as enthused as middle America. 

 

source for the first film leading to military drive: https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1986-07-05-ca-20403-story.html

[DAJK]

Yea Top Gun is definitely underperforming in Canada (minus Alberta lol) tonight. Still solid numbers, but not the sky-high results I've been expecting the past couple of weeks. 

[Alex SciChannel]

44 minutes ago, T-ReXXR said:

Going with $19.5M full previews (Tues/Weds/Thurs). Looks like Canada and some of the more "liberal" markets are underperforming a bit compared to "The Batman" but the flyover states seem to be holding right around it or even stronger. 

 

Going with 19.5 - 34 - 41 - 37 - 29 for the 4-Days. 

Awwwwww yeah!!!

[excel1]

36 minutes ago, motionpic05 said:

Just out of curiosity, why would Top Gun underperform in non- republican parties? 

Is it because of Cruise? 

 

In a very liberal part of Canada, the film seems to be doing meh in pre sales, but doing great with walk-ups.

 

 

Probably more to do with the strong military theme and lack of trendy subject matter 

[excel1]

If the #s come in as some seem to expect, TG:M is only underperforming the unrealistic expectations of the past few weeks. 1 year ago, I think most would have thought those #s were excellent.

[grey ghost]

54 minutes ago, motionpic05 said:

Just out of curiosity, why would Top Gun underperform in non- republican parties? 

Is it because of Cruise? 

 

In a very liberal part of Canada, the film seems to be doing meh in pre sales, but doing great with walk-ups.

 

 

The right wingers like the pro-military stuff more than liberals/progressives. 

[Shawn Robbins]

10 minutes ago, excel1 said:

If the #s come in as some seem to expect, TG:M is only underperforming the unrealistic expectations of the past few weeks. 1 year ago, I think most would have thought those #s were excellent.

I agree with your overall point, I'd just substitute "unrealistic" with "optimistic". There has been enough data to support the reality of the larger numbers, but this is a good example of why ranges are so important so as not to over- or -under-inflate expectations on any given movie.

 

The question is now simply which models end up more accurate (or if this perhaps results in a brand new model), but we can't Monday morning quarterback before the game is even played.

[grey ghost]

Which duo will rule the summer?

 

Dr Stange 2 + Thor 4

 

Or

 

Top Gun 2 + Jurassic World 3

[Joyous Legion]

2 minutes ago, Shawn said:

I agree with your overall point, I'd just substitute "unrealistic" with "optimistic". There has been enough data to support the reality of the larger numbers, but this is a good example of why ranges are so important so as not to over- or -under-inflate expectations on any given movie.

 

The question is now simply which models end up more accurate (or if this perhaps results in a brand new model), but we can't Monday morning quarterback before the game is even played.

The only thing BOT loves more than screaming about a 30th percentile result is pretending that it means a 70th percentile one was never possible 😛

[Grebacio]

2 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Which duo will rule the summer?

 

Dr Stange 2 + Thor 4

 

Or

 

Top Gun 2 + Jurassic World 3

Top gun + Jurassic World

[Cmasterclay]

I was worried about Eric's numbers but then I saw those numbers in the Central and Mountain time zones which reminded me why I'd been predicting this big breakout in the first place!

[Eric the Minion]

1 hour ago, Borf the Borf said:

Kinde jealous this guy getting a private screening at het 10:15 show, should I go spoil it?


Edit:

This feels like the setup to a really good romantic comedy.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

I was worried about Eric's numbers but then I saw those numbers in the Central and Mountain time zones which reminded me why I'd been predicting this big breakout in the first place!

Tbh even Eric's numbers are higher than most on this forum were predicting before presales started. I remember predicting like 110/300 and being way on the high end of people here. As @excel1 says, it's important to keep this all in perspective. At the end of the day, even if its number today is "low," the movie is a hit and will have strong legs with great WOM. 

[Eric the Minion]

22 hours ago, Eric Belcher said:

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	134	1602	23705	6.76%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 33

 

Comp

2.282x of F9 T-15 (16.2M)

2.902x of Venom 2 T-15 (33.66M)

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	134	1676	23705	7.07%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 74

 

Comp

2.648x of Venom 2 T-14 (30.71M)

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Tbh even Eric's numbers are higher than most on this forum were predicting before presales started. I remember predicting like 110/300 and being way on the high end of people here. As @excel1 says, it's important to keep this all in perspective. At the end of the day, even if its number today is "low," the movie is a hit and will have strong legs with great WOM. 

 

I blame Sacto, personally. 

 

(and Denver to a degree.... I suppose)

[BruiseCruise]

99 Verified audience score on RT with 1000+ reviews, I think the next 4 days will be better than we expect, still bullish on this one

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I blame Sacto, personally. 

 

(and Denver to a degree.... I suppose)

I would say the dark magic has fallen, but out of respect for your sorcerer's ways, I will wait until the morning. 

Edited May 27, 2022 by Menor Reborn