The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Brainbug]

@Shawn

 

I like your forecast for JW. I would probably kill a goat for a 180M at this point.

[grim22]

7 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

@Shawn

 

I like your forecast for JW. I would probably kill a goat for a 180M at this point.

[Shawn Robbins]

10 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

@Shawn

 

I like your forecast for JW. I would probably kill a goat for a 180M at this point.

I hope it's close. I'm worried about TGM stealing some of its thunder but FK and JW keep shouting at me. We're it not for the legacy cast, I'd definitely be farther below Rise of Skywalker at this point.

[Bigscrubnus]

11 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

@Shawn

 

I like your forecast for JW. I would probably kill a goat for a 180M at this point.

JW has a history of beating forecasts. So if anything I think 180+ is probable

Edited June 3, 2022 by Bigscrubnus

[XXR & Friends]

18 minutes ago, Bigscrubnus said:

JW has a history of beating forecasts. So if anything I think 180+ is probable

But we know that trend at this point, so it’s built into peoples forecast.

[Bigscrubnus]

8 minutes ago, T-ReXXR said:

But we know that trend at this point, so it’s built into peoples forecast.

That’s true. Hoping for 180 though.

[Porthos]

44 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

@Shawn

 

I like your forecast for JW. I would probably kill a goat for a 180M at this point.

 

Well, if you want a ray of optimism, the one comp in Sacto that stubbornly refuses to dip below 20m is indeed a little film called Fallen Kingdom.  Also last night did see something of a surge locally, and maybe a couple of days ahead of schedule.

 

Now the obvious rejoinder is that since JWD is ahead of FK, it not only has to match FK's run the rest of the way, but do proportionately better than it.  Plus, like, my inherent reluctance to use any of my 2018/19 comps for any reason whatsoever.

 

Still, I have been looking at the FK comp and... noting it, if nothing else.

[Brainbug]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Well, if you want a ray of optimism, the one comp in Sacto that stubbornly refuses to dip below 20m is indeed a little film called Fallen Kingdom.  Also last night did see something of a surge locally, and maybe a couple of days ahead of schedule.

 

Now the obvious rejoinder is that since JWD is ahead of FK, it not only has to match FK's run the rest of the way, but do proportionately better than it.  Plus, like, my inherent reluctance to use any of my 2018/19 comps for any reason whatsoever.

 

Still, I have been looking at the FK comp and... noting it, if nothing else.

 

Any optimism is good.

[Alex SciChannel]

6 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Any optimism is good.

We're also looking at 60M+ overseas total by the end of Sunday which is good.

Edited June 3, 2022 by Alex SciChannel

[Old Spice]

1 hour ago, grim22 said:

Not that goat!

[M37]

2 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Phone	T-20	Jax	6	16	1	16	1,959	0.82%
		Phx	5	13	2	11	2,108	0.52%
		Ral	7	17	11	25	1,647	1.52%
	Total		18	46	14	52	5,714	0.91%
Black Phone (EA)	T-12	Jax	2	2	0	0	141	0.00%
		Phx	2	2	0	2	229	0.87%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	91	0.00%
	Total		5	5	0	2	461	0.43%
Elvis	T-20	Jax	6	25	7	38	4,322	0.88%
		Phx	5	14	6	12	2,001	0.60%
		Ral	7	16	12	18	1,679	1.07%
	Total		18	55	25	68	8,002	0.85%
Elvis (EA)	T-18	Jax	2	2	12	54	403	13.40%
	Total		2	2	12	54	403	13.40%
JW3 Dominion	T-6	Jax	7	107	71	1,097	15,994	6.86%
		Phx	6	93	67	1,029	16,293	6.32%
		Ral	8	80	70	1,001	9,318	10.74%
	Total		21	280	208	3,127	41,605	7.52%
JW3+JP	T-6	Jax	5	5	10	181	811	22.32%
		Phx	6	6	6	368	638	57.68%
		Ral	7	7	4	163	688	23.69%
	Total		18	18	20	712	2,137	33.32%

 

JW3 T-6 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.04x (13.68m)

 - Batman (Thu) - missed

 - Eternals - 1.42x (13.45m)

 - F9 - 3x (21.31m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.11x (16.25m)

 

Elvis + EA T-20 comp

 - Downton Abbey 2 + EA - .47x (493k)

 

Fandango giving me all kinds of trouble today. Had to manually count everything on the app.

Not just you, the Fandango website was completely down yesterday evening, but has really been buggy for last 24 hours.  Maybe they're doing some upgrades in the down week between big releases?

[MattW]

For Thor, a marvel movie with 3pm previews in July, this could come close to deathly hallows 2 IM.

[XXR & Friends]

23 minutes ago, MattW said:

For Thor, a marvel movie with 3pm previews in July, this could come close to deathly hallows 2 IM.

I don’t see it being quite that bad but I could definitely see sub 5x.

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/1/2022 at 3:40 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

491

2320

21.16%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

513

3250

15.78%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2547	152	27919	9.12%	15	176

 

AMCs sold	1715
Cinemarks sold	391
Regals sold	240
Harkins sold	201

 

0.652x Top Gun 2 T-8 (12.55M)

1.48x Eternals T-8 (14.06M)

1.16x Black Widow T-8 (15.36M)

3.75x Fast 9 T-8 (26.63M)

Jurassic World Dominion Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

542

2320

23.36%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

584

3250

17.97%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2966	419	28682	10.34%	15	183

 

AMCs sold	1920
Cinemarks sold	470
Regals sold	329
Harkins sold	247

 

0.647x Top Gun 2 T-6 (12.46M)

0.660x Batman T-6 (14.25M)

1.60x Eternals T-6 (15.17M)

1.20x Black Widow T-6 (15.81M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/1/2022 at 3:46 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Megaplex

 

T-8 Thursday(104 showings): 2375(+178)/29567

0.506x Top Gun 2 T-8 (9.74M)

1.57x Eternals T-8 (14.90M)

0.887x Black Widow T-8 (11.71M)

 

T-9 Friday(150 showings): 2376(+195)/43519

0.536x Top Gun 2 T-9 (17.55M)

1.96x Eternals T-9 (41.73M)

1.20x Black Widow T-9 (31.69M)

 

T-10 Saturday(162 showings): 1700(+134)/46146

0.523x Top Gun 2 T-10 (19.89M)

2.70x Eternals T-10 (65.09M)

 

T-11 Sunday(144 showings): 583(+48)/41066

0.711x Top Gun 2 T-11 (26.08M)

4.45x Eternals T-11 (72.67M)

 

Drafthouse doesn't wanna work today, so no numbers from there.

Jurassic World Dominion Megaplex [2 days of sales]

 

T-6 Thursday(104 showings): 2916(+541)/29567

0.530x Top Gun 2 T-6 (10.21M)

0.549x Batman T-6 (11.85M)

1.67x Eternals T-6 (15.83M)

0.962x Black Widow T-6 (12.70M)

 

T-7 Friday(150 showings): 2938(+562)/43519

0.546x Top Gun 2 T-7 (17.87M)

1.06x Batman T-7 (36.94M)

2.10x Eternals T-7 (44.78M)

1.25x Black Widow T-7 (32.76M)

 

T-8 Saturday(162 showings): 2121(+421)/46146

0.543x Top Gun 2 T-8 (20.65M)

1.41x Batman T-8 (61.17M)

2.90x Eternals T-8 (69.98M)

 

T-9 Sunday(144 showings): 745(+162)/41066

0.783x Top Gun 2 T-9 (28.70M)

2.18x Batman T-9 (74.59M)

4.81x Eternals T-9 (78.49M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/31/2022 at 4:01 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-9 Thursday(114 showings): 5226(+957)/18561 ATP: $14.27

1.20x Top Gun 2 T-9 (17.69M)

0.539x Batman T-9 (9.49M)

 

T-10 Friday(181 showings): 5294(+1316)/28883 ATP: $14.52

1.06x Top Gun 2 T-10 (34.72M)

0.539x Batman T-10 (18.88M)

 

T-11 Saturday(190 showings): 5143(+1275)/30311 ATP: $13.64

1.11x Top Gun 2 T-11 (42.33M)

0.535x Batman T-11 (23.14M)

 

T-12 Sunday(155 showings): 2674(+934)/24924 ATP: $13.02

1.13x Top Gun 2 T-12 (41.44M)

0.635x Batman T-12 (21.67M)

 

I didn't start tracking the Tues+Wed showings for Top Gun 2 until the next day, so I'm only using the Thursday previews for the comp today. Not sure if we ever got an official split, but I used 14.76M

Jurassic World Dominion Alamo Drafthouse [3 days of sales]

 

T-6 Thursday(143 showings): 6700(+1474)/20777 ATP: $14.46

0.682x Top Gun 2 T-6 (13.13M)

0.579x Batman T-6 (10.20M)

 

T-7 Friday(186 showings): 6810(+1516)/29310 ATP: $14.54

1.05x Top Gun 2 T-7 (34.32M)

0.588x Batman T-7 (20.57M)

 

T-8 Saturday(198 showings): 6389(+1246)/30995 ATP: $13.68

1.08x Top Gun 2 T-8 (41.06M)

0.553x Batman T-8 (23.93M)

 

T-9 Sunday(160 showings): 3470(+796)/25317 ATP: $13.14

1.02x Top Gun 2 T-9 (37.53M)

0.650x Batman T-9 (22.17M)

[Joyous Legion]

5 hours ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

I like your forecast for JW. I would probably kill

Wow, impressi--

 

5 hours ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

a goat

Nvm. Where is your commitment?

[Brainbug]

41 minutes ago, Show Me The Legion said:

Wow, impressi--

 

Nvm. Where is your commitment?

 

My commitment is lowered by the fact that im mentally preparing for the OW. Euphoria or a possible threadban never layed so close for me.

[ZackM]

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	16	34	21	10
Seats Added	0	1,137	5,781	1,486	1,091
Seats Sold	6,123	4,138	4,359	3,182	2,674
6/3/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	428	4,357	88,453	768,484	11.51%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	2	14	53	133
ATP
$17.58

 

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Comps
	Top Gun: Maverick		The Batman		Dr. Strange MoM		Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-6	$13.8	$12.9	$8.7	$8.2	$8.7	$9.3	$9.6
T-7	$13.8	$12.9	$8.4	$7.9	$8.4	$8.9	$9.3
T-8	$13.9	$13.0	$8.1	$7.7	$8.3	$8.8	$9.2
T-9	$13.8	$12.9	$7.9	$7.5	$8.1	$8.6	$9.0
T-10	$13.9	$13.0	$7.8	$7.3	$8.0	$8.5	$8.9
T-11	$13.9	$13.1	$7.6	$7.2	$7.8	$8.3	$8.8
T-12	$14.0	$13.2	$7.5	$7.1	$7.7	$8.2	$8.7
T-13	$14.2	$13.4	$7.5	$7.1	$7.6	$8.1	$8.6

 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

What is the Elvis tracking so far? (Sorry if already discussed)