The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[el sid]

5 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Guys, how is The Fabelmans doing?

Today it didn't have showtimes in my normal 7 theaters (I also didn't expect many).

But it had showtimes in the AMC Lincoln Square 13 and the presales were quite good: It had 86 sold tickets for Thursday, November 10 (3 showtimes) and 67 sold tickets for Friday, November 11 (4 showtimes).

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Armageddon Time T-2: 14.93% Awareness, 5.15 Interest

Devotion T-21: 20.53%, 5.17

The Fabelmans T-21: 11.15%, 4.77

Strange World T-21: 26.89%, 5.29

80 for Brady T-93: 9.13%, 4.66

Evil Dead Rise T-170: 26.74%, 6.05

The Flash T-233: 39.06%, 5.89

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One T-254: 35.58%, 5.87

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever T-9: 61.71% Awareness, 6.91 Interest

*Note that Black Panther: Wakanda Forever's Final numbers are subject to change in the coming days*

Final General Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 90% chance of 70M, 70% chance of 100M

General Interest: 100% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 100M

 

Wow, Black Panther's probably gonna open to over 100M. What a total shock you guys!

[filmlover]

 

Weekend Box Office Forecast: One Piece Film: Red Takes on Black Adam; Armageddon Time and Banshees of Inisherin Expand - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

[ringedmortality]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

 

Weekend Box Office Forecast: One Piece Film: Red Takes on Black Adam; Armageddon Time and Banshees of Inisherin Expand - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

 

That’s kind of bad for both Banshees and Armageddon isn’t it?

[Issac Newton]

Expecting a good Outcome for this Weekend. 

 

OP > BA

 

I believe Thurs Previews will be lot higher in % in compare to previous Anime Films

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, ringedmortality said:

 

That’s kind of bad for both Banshees and Armageddon isn’t it?

Armageddon already performed weak last weekend so its number checks out but Banshees doesn't seem nearly as rough (it already fell from a $46K+ PTA in 4 theaters to a $9K+ PTA in 58 over the past two weeks so that's about a similar drop for a $1,700 PTA), even if, like TAR, the average will be low enough to ensure that this is as far as its going in expansion and at the box office with it likely being out of theaters completely by the time it would be able to actually reap the Oscar benefits.

Edited November 3, 2022 by filmlover

[Eric is Quiet]

On 11/1/2022 at 11:51 PM, Eric Carey said:

One Piece Film: Red Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	54	474	8739	5.42%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 45

 

Comp

0.383x of Jujutsu Kaisen 0 T-2 (1.1M)

0.433x of Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero T-2 (1.86M)

One Piece Film: Red Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	56	574	8930	6.43%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 100

 

Comp

0.418x of Jujutsu Kaisen 0 T-1 (1.2M)

0.436x of Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero T-1 (1.88M)

[Eric is Quiet]

23 hours ago, Eric Carey said:

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	250	7982	44218	18.05%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 293

 

Comp

0.458x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-9 (22.88M)

1.439x of The Batman T-9 (31.09M)

0.740x of Doctor Strange 2 T-9 (26.64M)

1.266x of Thor 4 T-9 (36.71M)

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	250	8299	44218	18.77%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 317

 

Comp

0.465x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-8 (23.25M)

1.439x of The Batman T-8 (31.08M)

0.742x of Doctor Strange 2 T-8 (26.73M)

1.284x of Thor 4 T-8 (37.23M)

[Porthos]

On 11/2/2022 at 1:58 AM, Porthos said:

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	2	301	29820	37937	8117	21.40%

 

Total Showings Added Today	6
Total Seats Added Today	906
Total Seats Sold Today	300

 

 

T-9 Comp

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	69.42		403	11693		0/353	30983/42676	27.40%		21117	38.44%		24.99m
L&T	106.10		288	7650		0/237	24964/32614	23.46%		16962	47.85%		30.77m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Panther 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      1871/11712  [15.98% sold]
Matinee:    376/4103  [9.16% | 4.81% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Somewhat buoyed by at least 70 tickets worth of group sales (a 50 and a 20 at two separate theaters), so we'll have to see how much the acceleration continues when there isn't a 50 spot dropped on a single showing.  Still, sales are sales, and Sacto is hardly the only place where mega group purchases are gonna happen.

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	2	301	29553	37937	8384	22.10%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

267

 

T-8 Comp

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	69.35		397	12090		0/353	30586/42676	28.33%		21117	39.70%		24.96m
L&T	105.67		284	7934		0/237	24680/32614	24.33%		16962	49.43%		30.64m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Panther 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     2035/12453  [16.34% sold]
Matinee:      412/4318  [9.54% | 4.91% of all tickets sold]

[jedijake]

Sacramento seems to be fixed with its comps.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Panther 2	T-8	Jax	6	135	100	2,430	18,862	12.88%
		Phx	7	138	122	1,927	19,520	9.87%
		Ral	8	134	129	3,132	15,657	20.00%
	Total		21	407	351	7,489	54,039	13.86%
BP2 DF	T-8	Jax	2	3	6	147	292	50.34%
	Total		2	3	6	147	292	50.34%
Glass Onion	T-21	Jax	4	16	1	56	1,847	3.03%
		Phx	2	8	2	58	736	7.88%
		Ral	2	11	1	102	896	11.38%
	Total		8	35	4	216	3,479	6.21%
One Piece	T-1	Jax	5	27	25	253	5,294	4.78%
		Phx	5	17	17	238	3,294	7.23%
		Ral	7	23	21	269	3,475	7.74%
	Total		17	67	63	760	12,063	6.30%

 

One Piece T-1 comps

 - Dragon Ball - .523x (2.25m)

 - JJK - .506x (1.46m)

 - MHA - .568x (1.64m)

 

Black Panther T-8 comps

 - Black Widow - 2.86x (37.76m)

 - Thor 4 - 1.11x (32.23m)

 - DS2 - .65x (23.4m)

 - NWH - .373x (18.64m)

 - Batman - missed

 

I don't really have any good Glass Onion comps this far out, especially with it being OD sales.  Here's what I have for T-21 though:

 

 - Black Widow - .161x (2.12m)

 - Downton Abbey - 1.6x (1.68m)

 - Dragon Ball - .529x (2.28m)

 - Eternals - .219x (2.08m)

 - JW3 - .136x (2.4m)

 - Nope - .911x (5.83m)

 - Sonic 2 - 1.11x (5.54m)

 - Thor 4 - .054x (1.57m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Panther 2	T-7	Jax	6	140	13	2,443	19,242	12.70%
		Phx	7	140	145	2,072	19,608	10.57%
		Ral	8	135	216	3,348	15,826	21.16%
ATP: 14.46	Total		21	415	374	7,863	54,676	14.38%
BP2 DF	T-7	Jax	2	4	1	148	355	41.69%
	Total		2	4	1	148	355	41.69%
Glass Onion	T-20	Jax	4	16	23	79	1,847	4.28%
		Phx	2	8	3	61	736	8.29%
		Ral	2	11	8	110	896	12.28%
ATP: 11.06	Total		8	35	34	250	3,479	7.19%
One Piece	T-0	Jax	5	28	54	307	5,331	5.76%
		Phx	6	18	53	291	3,415	8.52%
		Ral	7	25	62	331	3,651	9.07%
ATP: 14.07	Total		18	71	169	929	12,397	7.49%

 

One Piece T-0 comps

 - Dragon Ball - .506x (2.18m)

 - JJK - .532x (1.53m)

 - MHA - .572x (1.65m)

 

Black Panther T-7 comps

 - Black Widow - 2.78x (36.64m)

 - Thor 4 - 1.13x (32.65m)

 - DS2 - .66x (23.63m)

 - NWH - .38x (19.01m)

 - Batman - 1.98x (34.93m)

 

Glass Onion T-20 comps (Opening day vs previews)

 - Downton Abbey + EA - 1.07x (1.92m)

 - Dragon Ball - .576x (2.48m)

 - JW3 + DF - .118x (2.12m)

 - F9 - .735x (5.22m)

 - Top Gun 2 + EA - .147x (2.83m)

[ZackM]

On 11/1/2022 at 11:35 PM, ZackM said:

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	162	65	0	4	22
Seats Added	18,043	5,573	0	1,060	1,872
Seats Sold	7,115	5,555	4,381	4,188	5,612
11/1/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	439	7,607	211,958	1,175,460	18.03%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	29	145	377	683
ATP
$16.94
Black Panther Double Feature Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days
11/1/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	92	96	7,471	22,291	33.52%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	5	10	16	29
ATP
$17.58

 

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Dr. Strange MoM
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9	$26.6	$26.4	$22.5	$22.9
T-10	$26.4	$26.3	$22.5	$22.9
T-11	$26.4	$26.3	$22.3	$22.7
T-12	$26.6	$26.5	$22.2	$22.7
T-13	$26.7	$26.6	$22.0	$22.5
T-14	$26.9	$26.8	$21.7	$22.2
T-15	$26.7	$26.6	$21.3	$21.8
T-16	$26.8	$26.7	$21.2	$21.7
T-17	$26.9	$26.8	$21.2	$21.6
T-18	$27.2	$27.1	$21.4	$21.8

 

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	111	162	65	0	4
Seats Added	11,934	18,043	5,573	0	1,060
Seats Sold	9,058	7,115	5,555	4,381	4,188
11/2/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	439	7,718	221,016	1,187,394	18.61%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	32	155	408	724
ATP
$16.89
Black Panther Double Feature Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days
11/2/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	92	97	7,471	22,354	33.42%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	5	10	17	29
ATP
$17.58

 

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Dr. Strange MoM
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8	$26.8	$26.7	$22.7	$23.1
T-9	$26.6	$26.4	$22.5	$22.9
T-10	$26.4	$26.3	$22.5	$22.9
T-11	$26.4	$26.3	$22.3	$22.7
T-12	$26.6	$26.5	$22.2	$22.7
T-13	$26.7	$26.6	$22.0	$22.5
T-14	$26.9	$26.8	$21.7	$22.2
T-15	$26.7	$26.6	$21.3	$21.8
T-16	$26.8	$26.7	$21.2	$21.7
T-17	$26.9	$26.8	$21.2	$21.6
T-18	$27.2	$27.1	$21.4	$21.8

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Wakanda Forever Marcus Theaters T-8:

 

Thursday:

Showtimes: 901 (+4)

Seats Sold: 21800/128082 (+1063)

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 1485 (some showtimes threw errors)

Seats Sold: 22237/210832 (+1395)

 

I forgot to post yesterday's numbers, so these are still a 24-hour pace. No Thor comps today. The next Thor comps I'll have are T-4 where Thor had 30507 for Thursday and 20700 for Friday. Based on today's pace I'm estimating that those comps will be at around 25.3 million for Thursday and 56.6 million for Friday by then, but we'll see how things go. Currently the Thursday pace is ~par what I got for Thor on its last day and the Friday pace is more than 40% higher. 

Edited November 3, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Wakanda Forever Marcus Theaters T-8:

 

Thursday:

Showtimes: 901 (+4)

Seats Sold: 21800/128082 (+1063)

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 1485 (some showtimes threw errors)

Seats Sold: 22237/210832 (+1395)

 

I forgot to post yesterday's numbers, so these are still a 24-hour pace. No Thor comps today. The next Thor comps I'll have are T-4 where Thor had 30507 for Thursday and 20700 for Friday. Based on today's pace I'm estimating that those comps will be at around 25.3 million for Thursday and 56.6 million for Friday by then, but we'll see how things go. Currently the Thursday pace is ~par what I got for Thor on its last day and the Friday pace is more than 40% higher. 

I will guess around 28K THU by T-4. Final should go over Thor given reviews are expected to be positive.

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wakanda Forever MTC2 Previews(T-9) - 102174/604723 1485835.14 4403 shows +3697

Wakanda Forever MTC2 Previews(T-8) - 105940/603851 1538930.08 4405 shows +3766

 

Flatish day unlike MTC1 where its growing very well. 

 

On 7/2/2022 at 9:42 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Thor MTC2 previews - 127404/566914 1789063.60 3698 shows

 

Roughly 19K over 4 days. Not bad no sign of accelerated pace at this point. 

 

[filmlover]

Violent Night is a confirmed IMAX/PLF release.

 

Violent Night: The IMAX 2D Experience Showtimes Schedule - The BigScreen Cinema Guide

[jedijake]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wakanda Forever MTC2 Previews(T-8) - 105940/603851 1538930.08 4405 shows +3766

 

Flatish day unlike MTC1 where its growing very well. 

 

 

Just trying to educate myself after all these years. What do the numbers mean? Let me see if I am correct:

105940=number of total MTC2 shows sold?

603851=number of total shows available?

1538930.08=NO CLUE

4405=not sure? maybe number of shows sold TODAY???

+3766=number of new shows available? (maybe I have no clue)

[keysersoze123]

Just now, jedijake said:

Just trying to educate myself after all these years. What do the numbers mean? Let me see if I am correct:

105940=number of total MTC2 shows sold?

603851=number of total shows available?

1538930.08=NO CLUE

4405=not sure? maybe number of shows sold TODAY???

+3766=number of new shows available? (maybe I have no clue)

Tickets Sold/Total Seats/ $ value of tickets sold assuming all adult tickets / Total number of shows/ number of tickets sold over past day

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I will guess around 28K THU by T-4. Final should go over Thor given reviews are expected to be positive.

Its possible but Thor final 2 days sales were really strong better than NWH or DS2. Being heart of summer release helped with early shows. So beating Thor wont be easy in November. 

[jedijake]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Tickets Sold/Total Seats/ $ value of tickets sold assuming all adult tickets / Total number of shows/ number of tickets sold over past day

Thanks! Any way to figure out the number of theaters?