The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[el sid]

One Piece Film: Red, counted today at 10am EST for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 173 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 207 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 60 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 16 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 48 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 150 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 195 (7 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 849.

Comp (counted on Thursday for Thursday): Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero (4.3M from previews) had 1.457 sold tickets = 85%, would be 2.5M from previews for OPF: R.

PS: I noticed that DBS: SH is the most positive comp for One Piece Film (on Friday in my theaters and also in other reports here), so 2.5M could be a bit optimistic.

 

One Piece Film: Red, counted today at 10am EST for tomorrow:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 141 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 259 (7 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 92 (5 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 13 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 67 (8 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 166 (7 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 144 (7 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 882. Good Thursday-Friday ratio, not too frontloaded.

Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday): Jujutsu Kaisen 0 (18M) had 1.571 sold tickets = 56% = 10M,
Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero (21.1M OW) had 1.114 sold tickets = 79% = 16.7M,

My Hero Academia (6.3M) had 565 sold tickets = 1.56x = 9.8M,

and Belle (1.6M) had 83 sold tickets = x10.6 = 17M.

 

So between 10-17M OW judging from my theaters.

Edited November 3, 2022 by el sid

[katnisscinnaplex]

7 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
One Piece	T-0	Jax	5	28	54	307	5,331	5.76%
		Phx	6	18	53	291	3,415	8.52%
		Ral	7	25	62	331	3,651	9.07%
ATP: 14.07	Total		18	71	169	929	12,397	7.49%

 

One Piece T-0 comps

 - Dragon Ball - .506x (2.18m)

 - JJK - .532x (1.53m)

 - MHA - .572x (1.65m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
One Piece	1-Hr	Jax	5	28	94	401	5,331	7.52%
		Phx	6	18	37	328	3,415	9.60%
		Ral	7	25	76	407	3,651	11.15%
	Total		18	71	207	1,136	12,397	9.16%

 

One Piece T-1 hr comps

 - Dragon Ball - .506x (2.18m)

 - JJK - .567x (1.63m)

 - MHA - missed

All PG-13 movies - 2.3m

All 5pm previews - 2.66m

All movies - 2.42m

 

Pace has been better than JJK but worse that DB, so I'm expecting it to split the difference tonight.  Let's go with 1.8m for previews.

[Pinacolada]

21 hours ago, ringedmortality said:

 

That’s kind of bad for both Banshees and Armageddon isn’t it?

Armageddon Time is extremely DOA, but I'm hoping Banshees comes in over that. Hoping for $2m+??

[Eric is Quiet]

18 hours ago, Eric Carey said:

One Piece Film: Red Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	56	574	8930	6.43%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 100

 

Comp

0.418x of Jujutsu Kaisen 0 T-1 (1.2M)

0.436x of Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero T-1 (1.88M)

One Piece Film: Red Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	56	733	8930	8.21%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 159

 

Comp

0.447x of Jujutsu Kaisen 0 (1.29M)

0.397x of Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero (1.71M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/31/2022 at 6:59 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

922

4177

22.07%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

603

2758

21.86%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 3 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
4427	427	33549	13.20%	15	246

 

AMCs sold	2543
Cinemarks sold	857
Regals sold	447
Harkins sold	580

 

0.838x Thor L&T T-10 (24.31M)

0.558x Doctor Strange MoM T-10 (20.09M)

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

993

4177

23.77%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

694

2758

25.16%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 3 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
4857	500	33742	14.39%	15	246

 

AMCs sold	2789
Cinemarks sold	962
Regals sold	524
Harkins sold	582

 

0.825x Thor L&T T-7 (23.92M)

0.549x Doctor Strange MoM T-7 (19.77M)

1.13x Batman T-7 (24.37M)

 

A showing with 70 sold seats was removed, which is why the seats sold only increased by 430.

Edited November 4, 2022 by Inceptionzq

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/31/2022 at 7:05 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Megaplex [+3 days of sales]

 

T-10 Thursday(109 showings): 2869(+226)/31432

0.547x Thor L&T T-10 (15.86M)

0.328x Doctor Strange MoM T-10 (11.79M)

2.19x Eternals T-10 (20.76M)

 

T-11 Friday(169 showings): 1939(+259)/48520

0.673x Thor L&T T-11 (27.31M)

0.387x Doctor Strange MoM T-11 (21.19M)

1.92x Eternals T-11 (40.93M)

 

T-12 Saturday(176 showings): 1272(+177)/50950

0.833x Thor L&T T-12 (35.08M)

0.454x Doctor Strange MoM T-12 (26.29M)

2.56x Eternals T-12 (61.73M)

 

T-13 Sunday(139 showings): 280(+55)/41926

0.477x Thor L&T T-13 (15.50M)

0.402x Doctor Strange MoM T-13 (15.62M)

2.37x Eternals T-13 (38.75M)

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Megaplex [+3 days of sales]

 

T-7 Thursday(112 showings): 3286(+417)/32046

0.549x Thor L&T T-7 (15.94M)

0.331x Doctor Strange MoM T-7 (11.90M)

0.644x Batman T-7 (13.91M)

2.02x Eternals T-7 (19.15M)

 

T-8 Friday(169 showings): 2561(+622)/48520

0.711x Thor L&T T-8 (28.81M)

0.419x Doctor Strange MoM T-8 (22.95M)

1.02x Batman T-8 (35.73M)

1.98x Eternals T-8 (42.27M)

 

T-9 Saturday(176 showings): 1486(+214)/50950

0.783x Thor L&T T-9 (32.95M)

0.412x Doctor Strange MoM T-9 (23.84M)

1.11x Batman T-9 (47.83M)

2.12x Eternals T-9 (51.20M)

 

T-10 Sunday(139 showings): 351(+71)/41926

0.503x Thor L&T T-10 (16.34M)

0.371x Doctor Strange MoM T-10 (14.43M)

1.16x Batman T-10 (39.55M)

2.45x Eternals T-10 (40.08M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/31/2022 at 7:10 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Alamo Drafthouse [+3 days of sales]

 

T-10 Thursday(234 showings): 13647(+795)/32131 ATP: $16.10

1.08x Thor L&T T-10 (31.19M)

0.794x Doctor Strange MoM T-10 (28.58M)

 

T-11 Friday(344 showings): 15814(+1527)/48562 ATP: $15.64

1.49x Thor L&T T-11 (60.34M)

1.03x Doctor Strange MoM T-11 (56.33M)

 

T-12 Saturday(344 showings): 13894(+1610)/49293 ATP: $15.26

1.38x Thor L&T T-12 (58.03M)

0.861x Doctor Strange MoM T-12 (49.77M)

 

T-13 Sunday(329 showings): 7835(+907)/46355 ATP: $15.30

1.41x Thor L&T T-13 (45.93M)

0.974x Doctor Strange MoM T-13 (37.89M)

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Alamo Drafthouse [+3 days of sales]

 

T-7 Thursday(275 showings): 15840(+2193)/36764 ATP: $15.97

1.12x Thor L&T T-7 (32.38M)

0.818x Doctor Strange MoM T-7 (29.44M)

1.45x Batman T-7 (25.59M, Thurs only)

 

T-8 Friday(384 showings): 18495(+2681)/52915 ATP: $15.55

1.55x Thor L&T T-8 (62.83M)

1.06x Doctor Strange MoM T-8 (58.16M)

1.71x Batman T-8 (59.90M)

 

T-9 Saturday(387 showings): 16205(+2311)/54038 ATP: $15.23

1.43x Thor L&T T-9 (60.03M)

0.891x Doctor Strange MoM T-9 (51.50M)

1.50x Batman T-9 (65.03M)

 

T-10 Sunday(361 showings): 9508(+1673)/49930 ATP: $15.22

1.49x Thor L&T T-10 (48.49M)

1.00x Doctor Strange MoM T-10 (38.93M)

1.95x Batman T-10 (66.68M)

[ZackM]

12 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	111	162	65	0	4
Seats Added	11,934	18,043	5,573	0	1,060
Seats Sold	9,058	7,115	5,555	4,381	4,188
11/2/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	439	7,718	221,016	1,187,394	18.61%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	32	155	408	724
ATP
$16.89
Black Panther Double Feature Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days
11/2/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	92	97	7,471	22,354	33.42%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	5	10	17	29
ATP
$17.58

 

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Dr. Strange MoM
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8	$26.8	$26.7	$22.7	$23.1
T-9	$26.6	$26.4	$22.5	$22.9
T-10	$26.4	$26.3	$22.5	$22.9
T-11	$26.4	$26.3	$22.3	$22.7
T-12	$26.6	$26.5	$22.2	$22.7
T-13	$26.7	$26.6	$22.0	$22.5
T-14	$26.9	$26.8	$21.7	$22.2
T-15	$26.7	$26.6	$21.3	$21.8
T-16	$26.8	$26.7	$21.2	$21.7
T-17	$26.9	$26.8	$21.2	$21.6
T-18	$27.2	$27.1	$21.4	$21.8

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	39	111	162	65	0
Seats Added	2,844	11,934	18,043	5,573	0
Seats Sold	8,960	9,058	7,115	5,555	4,381
11/3/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	439	7,757	229,976	1,190,238	19.32%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	36	165	438	770
ATP
$16.83
Black Panther Double Feature Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days
11/3/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	92	97	7,905	22,354	35.36%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	4	10	19	31
ATP
$17.57

 

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Dr. Strange MoM
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7	$26.9	$26.8	$22.8	$23.2
T-8	$26.8	$26.7	$22.7	$23.1
T-9	$26.6	$26.4	$22.5	$22.9
T-10	$26.4	$26.3	$22.5	$22.9
T-11	$26.4	$26.3	$22.3	$22.7
T-12	$26.6	$26.5	$22.2	$22.7
T-13	$26.7	$26.6	$22.0	$22.5
T-14	$26.9	$26.8	$21.7	$22.2
T-15	$26.7	$26.6	$21.3	$21.8
T-16	$26.8	$26.7	$21.2	$21.7
T-17	$26.9	$26.8	$21.2	$21.6
T-18	$27.2	$27.1	$21.4	$21.8

 

[Eric is Quiet]

 

23 hours ago, Eric Carey said:

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	250	8299	44218	18.77%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 317

 

Comp

0.465x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-8 (23.25M)

1.439x of The Batman T-8 (31.08M)

0.742x of Doctor Strange 2 T-8 (26.73M)

1.284x of Thor 4 T-8 (37.23M)

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	250	8656	44218	19.58%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 357

 

Comp

0.471x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-7 (23.57M)

1.448x of The Batman T-7 (31.28M)

0.731x of Doctor Strange 2 T-7 (26.33M)

1.286x of Thor 4 T-7 (37.3M)

[Porthos]

On 11/3/2022 at 2:15 AM, Porthos said:

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	2	301	29553	37937	8384	22.10%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

267

 

T-8 Comp

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	69.35		397	12090		0/353	30586/42676	28.33%		21117	39.70%		24.96m
L&T	105.67		284	7934		0/237	24680/32614	24.33%		16962	49.43%		30.64m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Panther 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     2035/12453  [16.34% sold]
Matinee:      412/4318  [9.54% | 4.91% of all tickets sold]

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	2	308	29418	38127	8709	22.84%

 

Total Showings Added Today	7
Total Seats Added Today	190
Total Seats Sold Today	325

 

T-7 Comp

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	69.36		467	12557		0/353	30123/42680	29.42%		21117	41.24%		24.97m
L&T	105.26		340	8274		0/240	24544/32818	25.21%		16962	51.34%		30.52m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Panther 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     2114/12453  [16.98% sold]
Matinee:     417/4318  [9.66% | 4.79% of all tickets sold]

[filmlover]

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 11/4/22)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
11/11/2022	Black Panther: Wakanda Forever	$170,000,000 – $205,000,000	-12%	$435,000,000 – $543,000,000	-11%	Disney / Marvel Studios
11/11/2022	Spirited					Apple Original Films
11/18/2022	The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 & 2					Fathom Events
11/18/2022	The Menu	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000		$25,000,000 – $50,000,000		Disney / Searchlight Pictures
11/18/2022	She Said	$4,000,000 – $9,000,000		$14,000,000 – $34,000,000		Universal Pictures
11/23/2022	Bones and All (Limited on Nov. 18)					United Artists Releasing
11/23/2022	Devotion	$5,000,000 – $10,000,000		$17,000,000 – $42,000,000		Sony / Columbia Pictures
11/23/2022	The Fabelmans (Wide Expansion; LA/NY Nov. 11)	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000		$35,000,000 – $65,000,000		Universal Pictures
11/23/2022	Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery	$6,000,000+		$12,000,000+		Netflix
11/23/2022	Strange World	$20,000,000 – $30,000,000		$68,000,000 – $103,000,000		Walt Disney Pictures
12/2/2022	Emancipation					Apple Original Films
12/2/2022	Quintessential Quintuplets Movie					Crunchyroll / Sony
12/2/2022	Violent Night	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000		$21,000,000 – $42,000,000		Universal Pictures

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Violent Night and the Latest Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Updates - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 10/28/2022 at 7:30 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Black Adam	3,415	83,738	-28.24%	72,670	484.11	11,068	3,900	0
Prey for the Devil	2,659	45,409		44,058		1,351	0	0
Ticket to Paradise	3,045	44,186	-16.80%	44,117	271.92	69	0	0
Halloween Ends	2,743	31,600	-40.11%	31,550	151.64	50	0	0
Smile	2,680	30,957	-7.84%	30,912	252.22	45	0	0
Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile	2,447	24,152	-27.73%	24,129	127.20	23	0	0
Till	1,925	22,459	116.66%	22,448		11	0	0
Call Jane	972	12,049		12,037		12	0	0
Terrifier 2	1,420	11,176	143.38%	11,169	382.40	7	0	0
TÁR	1,005	10,074		10,054		20	0	0
The Woman King	1,176	7,907	-45.79%	7,907	128.71	0	0	0
The Bad Guys	1,260	7,312		7,305		7	0	7
Triangle of Sadness	512	4,692		4,685		7	0	0
Don't Worry Darling	374	2,306	-66.78%	2,295	125.02	11	0	0
Amsterdam	375	2,155	-79.55%	2,144	78.25	11	0	0
Coldplay	795	1,593		1,593		0	0	0

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 10/28 Weekend

 

OW Showtimes Comps

Prey for the Devil - 45,409 (2,659 TC)

 - Escape Room 2 - 45,204 (2,482)

 - Don't Breathe 2 - 43,638 (2,644)

 - Firestarter - 48,840 (2,998)

 - Invitation - 43,127 (2,655)

Till - 22,459 (1,925 TC) (Not incl previews since I couldn't parse them out for expansion)

 - American Underdog - 24,667 (2,610)

 - Mack & Rita - 24,728 (1,686)

Call Jane - 12,049 (972 TC) 

 - Spencer - 11,579 (840)

 - Wolf and the Lion - 12,069 (938)

 - Umma - 11,404 (739)

 

T-1 Week Showtimes Comps

One Piece Red - 34,212 (2,003 TC)

 - Addams Family - 33,520 (2,461)

 - Jackass Forever - 32,919 (2,445)

 - Bad Guys - 33,122 (2,264)

 - JJK - 26,472 (2,001)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Black Panther DF - 103 (102 TC)

Black Panther 2 - 29,365 (2,794 TC) (8,038 PLF)

 - DS2 - 31,994 (2,883) (7,448 PLF)

 - Thor 4 - 24,565 (2,794) (6,755 PLF)

 - No Way Home - 29,365 (2,794) (4,775 PLF)

 

T-3 Weeks Preview Showtimes Comps

The Menu - 3,087 (1,316 TC)

 - Crawdads - 2,901 (971)

 - Father Stu - 3,017 (1,359)

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Black Adam	3,239	62,903	-24.88%	58,332	328.07	4,571	575	0
One Piece Film: Red	2,227	52,470		44,365		8,105	3,903	0
Ticket to Paradise	3,312	43,032	-2.61%	42,967	222.98	65	0	0
Prey for the Devil	2,627	34,120	-15.15%	33,826	158.23	294	0	0
Smile	2,624	29,339	-5.23%	29,305	175.48	34	0	0
Halloween Ends	2,484	24,375	-22.86%	24,364	128.47	11	0	0
Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile	2,404	22,192	-8.12%	22,180	113.49	12	0	0
Till	2,032	22,025	-1.93%	22,014	122.08	11	0	0
Armageddon Time	945	12,340		12,319		21	0	0
Banshees of Inisherin	785	9,383		9,370		13	0	0
TÁR	993	8,920	-11.46%	8,911	104.06	9	0	0
Terrifier 2	1,185	8,706	-22.10%	8,706	170.08	0	0	0
The Woman King	891	6,316	-20.12%	6,310	142.60	6	6	0
The Estate	302	4,080		4,066		14	0	0
Tanya Tucker	341	3,223		3,223		0	0	0
Triangle of Sadness	399	2,492	-46.89%	2,492	114.85	0	0	0
Call Jane	371	1,917	-82.40%	1,914	20.24	3	0	0

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 11/4 Weekend

 

OW Showtimes Comps

One Piece Red - 52,470 (2,227 TC)

 - Ambulance - 51,310 (2,947)

 - Crawdads - 53,855 (3,126)

 - West Side Story - 54,697 (2,479)

 - JJK - 41,623 (2,228)

 - Dragon Ball Super - 62,110 (2,856)

Armageddon Time - 12,340 (945 TC)

 - Good House - 12,607 (987)

 - Breaking - 12,196 (891)

 - Call Jane - 12,049 (972)

The Estate - 4,080 (302 TC)

 - The Policeman - 4,288 (345)

 - Becoming Custeau - 3,927 (310)

 

T-1 Week Showtimes Comps

Black Panther DF - 197 (195 TC) (previously missing MTC1)

Black Panther 2 - 160,642 (3,118 TC) (42,252 PLF)

 - DS2 - 173,506 (3,205) (38,061 PLF)

 - Thor 4 - 132,351 (3,087) (35,960 PLF)

 - No Way Home - 135,877 (3,146) (25,877 PLF)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

The Menu - 3,316 (1,418 TC)

 - Dog - 3,104 (1,383)

 - Father Stu - 3,134 (1,400)

She Said - 2,214 (1,081 TC)

 - Beast - 2,330 (845)

 - Moonfall - 2,260 (1,111)

 

T-3 Weeks Preview Showtimes Comps

Glass Onion (11/22 Midnight) - 64 (64 TC)

Glass Onion (11/23 OD) - 2,323 (607 TC)

 - Marry Me - 2,115 (1,068)

 - Bad Guys - 2,295 (876)

Fablemans (11/23 OD) - 1,350 (381 TC)

 - Family Camp - 1,472 (509)

 - Belle - 1,258 (767)

 

T-4 Weeks Preview Showtimes Comps

I Heard the Bells - 908 (862 TC)

 - Lost City - 1,250 (482)

 - Belle - 1,197 (728)

[jedijake]

So barring a HUGE last week of sales, BPWF's numbers are looking more and more like $25-$28 million preview and $170-$180 million OW.

 

Correct assessment?

[GOGODanca]

8 minutes ago, jedijake said:

So barring a HUGE last week of sales, BPWF's numbers are looking more and more like $25-$28 million preview and $170-$180 million OW.

 

Correct assessment?

Wait until reviews drop and then cinemascore drops, if this movie is as good as everyone claims it is then with a holiday weekend it will definitely go over 200m

[M37]

47 minutes ago, jedijake said:

So barring a HUGE last week of sales, BPWF's numbers are looking more and more like $25-$28 million preview and $170-$180 million OW.

 

Correct assessment?

Funny you should ask, as I was just about to post this...

 

Here is the aggregated data from some of the trackers, showing roughly $27M as the current projected Thursday.  There is a split between the Strange MoM and Thor L&T comps - and some significant outliers - with the former suggesting ~$25M, and the latter about ~$31M (and of course the Sacto data from @Porthos is right on those averages). There is good reason, for both demographics and the Friday Vet Day holiday, to expect BPWF to trend towards the higher end of the range, with more late sales/walk-up friendly, and even potentially exceed $30M for Thursday.

 

 

A fair amount more uncertainty than usual MCU tracking here, both in the Thursday number and the multiplier from that value, but at this moment I'd put the range at decently wide $160-$200M (though others may see it higher), with hopefully some clarity on the trajectory coming in the new few days

Edited November 4, 2022 by M37

[XXR & Friends]

31 minutes ago, jedijake said:

So barring a HUGE last week of sales, BPWF's numbers are looking more and more like $25-$28 million preview and $170-$180 million OW.

 

Correct assessment?

If that’s where previews end up, then yea something in the $170-180M range is probable. I’m of the belief that it will do about 6.5x previews. 

[Joyous Legion]

27-31*6.4-6.8    
 

MoM had extremely strong d-10 to d-5 or so before stumbling a little at the finish line, so that comp will “surprisingly” start to veer up in the final few days. Not sure how much it will really gain on Thor at this point, but fingers crossed.

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Armageddon Time T-1: 14.64% Awareness, 5.07 Interest

Bones and All T-15: 15.79%, 5.02

The Menu T-15: 20.8%, 5.26

She Said T-15: 16.81%, 4.76

I Wanna Dance with Somebody T-48: 22.23%, 5.25

House Party T-71: 24.55%, 5.51

John Wick: Chapter 4 T-141: 52.47%, 6.57

The Marvels T-267: 44.16%, 6.23

 

One Piece Film: Red T-1: 18.77% Awareness, 4.75 Interest

*Note that One Piece Film: Red's Final numbers are subject to change*

Final General Awareness: 5% chance of double-digit opening

General Interest: 24% chance of double-digit opening

[jedijake]

I wish we had Seattle comps. Very liberal city but with a low % of African Americans. Would be interesting to see how it stacks up.

 

I sure do like those Alamo Drafthouse numbers. And those Philly numbers are pretty good too.

 

Really surprised at how "low" the Denver numbers are.

Edited November 4, 2022 by jedijake

[stripe]

I would say at this moment previews are looking to reach 30M. That should be enough to have an OW north of 180M+

30+55+60+40=185M

But I have a feeling it will be a bit walkup friendly and not as frontloaded as other MCU tentpoles. Also Veteran's day could inflate Friday. So 

30+65+65+45=205M