The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:30am-12:20pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	2	375	28391	43138	14747	34.19%

 

Total Showings Capped Since Last Night	1
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	1125

 

T-0 [Mid-Day] Comps

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM [11:30-12:40]	75.78		1194	19461		0/409	27068/46529	41.83%		21117	69.83%		27.28m
L&T [11:30-12:25]	98.93		1390	14906		0/313	24653/39559	37.68%		16962	86.94%		28.69m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Panther 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     3887/13217  [29.41% sold]
Matinee:    969/4761  [20.35% | 6.57% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Pretty standard walkups for a large Marvel film (L&T was still seeing slight pickup from the 4th). Looks to be converging to around 28m or so.

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:45pm-4:40pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	2	376	26416	43216	16800	38.87%

 

Total Showings Added Since Mid-Day	1
Total Seats Added Since Mid-Day	78
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	2053

 

T-0 Comps

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH	59.61		1758	28183		4/395	15229/43412	64.92%		43412	38.70%		29.81m
MoM [3:30-4:35]	79.56		1656	21117		0/409	25412/46529	45.38%		21117	79.56%		28.64m
L&T [3:45-4:35]	99.04		2056	16962		0/320	23111/40073	42.33%		16962	99.04%		28.72m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Panther 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     4461/13217  [33.75% sold]
Matinee:    1217/4761  [25.56% | 7.24% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

VERY nice finish to the day.  People treating this like a pseudo-Friday thanks to Veteran's Day, perhaps?  Or just the good reviews kicking in?  Either way, stellar end to the track.

 

As noted by @Legion By Night funnily enough, MoM and L&T did indeed harmonize in comps.  Who could have possibly guessed?    Even the NWH comp is in the same-ish ballpark.  So who am I to ignore my local Marvel comps?

 

Let's call for 28.7m +/- .7m. 

 

Be curious to see if it over-indexing in places like Philly will drag up the comp or not.  Or if this is just playing well locally (if not Philly well).

Edited November 11, 2022 by Porthos
Should be a slightly higher error bar after reflection - changed to give a 28m - 29.5(-ish) range

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Let's call for 28.7m +/- .7m. 

 

Be curious to see if it over-indexing in places like Philly will drag up the comp or not.  Or if this is just playing well locally (if not Philly well).

 

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Hopefully other areas reaffirm this, but with this data I'm going to up my final prediction to 28.8m

 

Let the record show that I did NOT see this post from katnisscinnaplex before I also called for pretty much the same number.

 

Edited November 11, 2022 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

Nice finish in Sacramento. Any like for like comps with 1st movie. Back then you posted it sold 70% of seats over in your area. 

 

 

Let us hope @ZackM also confirms the same. 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Wow, very nice surprises in Philly and Sacto (especially Philly). 

[charlie Jatinder]

Yeah 28M seems about right and where was thinking from yday numbers. 

Edited November 11, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Tinalera]

Black Panther 2 (no direct comps)

Nov 11

SW/Toronto Ontario

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Fri	20	400	16106	51658	66608	0.2418

 

No time for final Thurs, this will probably be final count for Friday, I have stuff to do tomorrow and probably wont get a better count.

 

Again unoffical comps-is selling about 7000 more than Thor4, 3000 More than Dr Strange too-big boost for Friday sales recently it seems.

 

I thought I posted this in this thread but maybe not-if so apologies for double post.

 

 

Not going to try and estimate Ontario numbers....well I mean if you bent my arm fine 7.5 Mil OD for Canada incl Thurs? Maybe? 

 

For US I don't know, seeing the to and fro about what US numbers will do esp with a holiday....Im not that brave!

Edited November 11, 2022 by Tinalera

[Porthos]

33 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Nice finish in Sacramento. Any like for like comps with 1st movie. Back then you posted it sold 70% of seats over in your area.

 

*double checks*

 

Yeaaaaaah, but it's pretty worthless.  No, strike that.  It is 100% worthless.

 

My local like-for-like BP comp comes in at 41.3m. (see different number below)

 

BUT!!!!

 

That's because since BP opened, we have two brand new theaters in town, one of which is solidly in the A-tier and another which is in the upper B tier. Not only that, but a third theater opened which replaced another theater down the road and that replacement theater is doing much much much better than the older one (it's now solidly in the A tier where before it straddled the B/C tier line).

 

Making things worse, back then Disney had the... interesting practice of not using every theater in my region for their event films (as long timers might recall me mentioning from time to time). 

 

Occasionally they would have some sort of non-compete going on between MTC2 and MTC3 locally, if the two chains had a theater very close to each other (within a couple of miles of each other).  They stopped doing that around the time of Infinity War, but it was something they had been doing for SW and Marvel films before then, which makes comping BP1 even more useless.

 

There's more than one reason why I haven't even done an "unofficial" track against BP1 since I'd have to change so many variables that it goes from being art to alchemy. 

 

If I did a pure, exact, theater-for-theater track and just said "nuts" to the new theaters in the region as well as the theaters BP1 didn't get screened at, I get: 30.6m.

 

Which at least is in the ballpark, but then we have the dueling problems of ticket inflation since 2018 and my long term observation that Sacto is taking more of the share of the DOM market than they did back then.  Whether or not those two forces have more or less cancelled each other out by now, I have no idea.

 

Either way, that 30.6 is only in the right area by sheer luck, IMO.  And even then, I wouldn't use it for anything.

Edited November 11, 2022 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

Technically all US comps should over-index a bit as CAN will be under Thor 4 but most comps will have demographic funkiness, so don't matter. 

[Tinalera]

14 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Technically all US comps should over-index a bit as CAN will be under Thor 4 but most comps will have demographic funkiness, so don't matter. 

Yea, SW/Toronto area is a pretty dense area and will def skew the numbers a bit (heck even looking at numbers between the SW theatres alone, there was some funkiness with some theatres really getting sales while others were pretty quiet. And SW/Tor is one area in isolation, now maybe if started doing East coast numbers and maybe West numbers.....

 

Nope nope nope that way leads to true darkness as far as my sanity is concerned....

[ZackM]

Update 1 with time zone comps:

 

 

Alpha - Wakanda Forever - Eastern Time Zone					Alpha - Wakanda Forever - Central Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	Thor 4	Dr. Strange 2		Showtimes	Sales	Thor 4	Dr. Strange 2
3:00-3:59	33,690	102.9%	89.0%		3:00-3:59	13,536	68.4%	64.6%
4:00-4:59	16,833	83.6%	68.6%		4:00-4:59	6,854	67.1%	51.9%
5:00-5:59	14,261	111.1%	83.0%		5:00-5:59	6,094	82.5%	58.1%
6:00-6:59	31,298	85.6%	70.9%		6:00-6:59	18,488	75.7%	69.9%
7:00-7:59	46,869	123.9%	97.9%		7:00-7:59	25,624	119.0%	84.4%
8:00-8:59	29,346	127.7%	94.7%		8:00-8:59	12,812	97.3%	70.4%
9:00-9:59	17,684	50.4%	43.4%		9:00-9:59	6,059	30.0%	28.4%
10:00-10:59	22,159	88.7%	73.1%		10:00-10:59	9,467	82.7%	54.6%
11:00-11:59	14,522	232.3%	177.2%		11:00-11:59	4,723	193.1%	125.9%
12:00+	3,098	94.6%	62.3%		12:00+	333	17.8%	16.8%
Alpha - Wakanda Forever - Mountain Time Zone					Alpha - Wakanda Forever - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	Thor 4	Dr. Strange 2		Showtimes	Sales	Thor 4	Dr. Strange 2
3:00-3:59	3,545	63.1%	62.0%		3:00-3:59	14,446	85.0%	72.0%
4:00-4:59	1,320	41.9%	38.7%		4:00-4:59	7,037	70.0%	59.2%
5:00-5:59	1,473	62.2%	55.8%		5:00-5:59	6,312	80.0%	61.0%
6:00-6:59	4,242	67.9%	59.3%		6:00-6:59	12,284	69.0%	53.9%
7:00-7:59	5,329	102.3%	76.9%		7:00-7:59	20,317	115.2%	86.8%
8:00-8:59	2,397	71.5%	60.7%		8:00-8:59	13,864	102.0%	84.5%
9:00-9:59	1,278	23.5%	23.6%		9:00-9:59	8,319	47.8%	40.2%
10:00-10:59	2,330	99.8%	54.2%		10:00-10:59	9,538	73.3%	53.1%
11:00-11:59	572	76.6%	81.3%		11:00-11:59	7,370	163.2%	101.0%
12:00+	145	38.3%	27.4%		12:00+	2,020	46.2%	30.6%

 

 

About 70k walkups so far.

[ZackM]

1 hour ago, ZackM said:

Update 1 with time zone comps:

 

 

Alpha - Wakanda Forever - Eastern Time Zone					Alpha - Wakanda Forever - Central Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	Thor 4	Dr. Strange 2		Showtimes	Sales	Thor 4	Dr. Strange 2
3:00-3:59	33,690	102.9%	89.0%		3:00-3:59	13,536	68.4%	64.6%
4:00-4:59	16,833	83.6%	68.6%		4:00-4:59	6,854	67.1%	51.9%
5:00-5:59	14,261	111.1%	83.0%		5:00-5:59	6,094	82.5%	58.1%
6:00-6:59	31,298	85.6%	70.9%		6:00-6:59	18,488	75.7%	69.9%
7:00-7:59	46,869	123.9%	97.9%		7:00-7:59	25,624	119.0%	84.4%
8:00-8:59	29,346	127.7%	94.7%		8:00-8:59	12,812	97.3%	70.4%
9:00-9:59	17,684	50.4%	43.4%		9:00-9:59	6,059	30.0%	28.4%
10:00-10:59	22,159	88.7%	73.1%		10:00-10:59	9,467	82.7%	54.6%
11:00-11:59	14,522	232.3%	177.2%		11:00-11:59	4,723	193.1%	125.9%
12:00+	3,098	94.6%	62.3%		12:00+	333	17.8%	16.8%
Alpha - Wakanda Forever - Mountain Time Zone					Alpha - Wakanda Forever - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	Thor 4	Dr. Strange 2		Showtimes	Sales	Thor 4	Dr. Strange 2
3:00-3:59	3,545	63.1%	62.0%		3:00-3:59	14,446	85.0%	72.0%
4:00-4:59	1,320	41.9%	38.7%		4:00-4:59	7,037	70.0%	59.2%
5:00-5:59	1,473	62.2%	55.8%		5:00-5:59	6,312	80.0%	61.0%
6:00-6:59	4,242	67.9%	59.3%		6:00-6:59	12,284	69.0%	53.9%
7:00-7:59	5,329	102.3%	76.9%		7:00-7:59	20,317	115.2%	86.8%
8:00-8:59	2,397	71.5%	60.7%		8:00-8:59	13,864	102.0%	84.5%
9:00-9:59	1,278	23.5%	23.6%		9:00-9:59	8,319	47.8%	40.2%
10:00-10:59	2,330	99.8%	54.2%		10:00-10:59	9,538	73.3%	53.1%
11:00-11:59	572	76.6%	81.3%		11:00-11:59	7,370	163.2%	101.0%
12:00+	145	38.3%	27.4%		12:00+	2,020	46.2%	30.6%

 

 

About 70k walkups so far.

 

 

Update 2 - 85.7k walkups and 473.5k total.

 

Alpha - Wakanda Forever - Eastern Time Zone					Alpha - Wakanda Forever - Central Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	Thor 4	Dr. Strange 2		Showtimes	Sales	Thor 4	Dr. Strange 2
3:00-3:59	33,690	102.9%	89.0%		3:00-3:59	13,536	68.4%	64.6%
4:00-4:59	16,833	83.6%	68.6%		4:00-4:59	6,854	67.1%	51.9%
5:00-5:59	14,261	111.1%	83.0%		5:00-5:59	6,094	82.5%	58.1%
6:00-6:59	31,298	85.6%	70.9%		6:00-6:59	18,484	75.7%	69.9%
7:00-7:59	47,184	124.8%	98.6%		7:00-7:59	26,381	122.6%	86.9%
8:00-8:59	30,905	134.5%	99.7%		8:00-8:59	14,295	108.6%	78.5%
9:00-9:59	19,544	55.7%	47.9%		9:00-9:59	6,786	33.6%	31.8%
10:00-10:59	23,409	93.7%	77.2%		10:00-10:59	10,196	89.1%	58.8%
11:00-11:59	15,167	242.6%	185.1%		11:00-11:59	5,113	209.0%	136.3%
12:00+	3,237	98.8%	65.1%		12:00+	350	18.7%	17.7%
Alpha - Wakanda Forever - Mountain Time Zone					Alpha - Wakanda Forever - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	Thor 4	Dr. Strange 2		Showtimes	Sales	Thor 4	Dr. Strange 2
3:00-3:59	3,545	63.1%	62.0%		3:00-3:59	14,446	85.0%	72.0%
4:00-4:59	1,320	41.9%	38.7%		4:00-4:59	7,125	70.9%	59.9%
5:00-5:59	1,473	62.2%	55.8%		5:00-5:59	6,496	82.4%	62.8%
6:00-6:59	4,334	69.4%	60.6%		6:00-6:59	12,826	72.0%	56.3%
7:00-7:59	5,712	109.7%	82.4%		7:00-7:59	21,421	121.5%	91.6%
8:00-8:59	2,686	80.1%	68.0%		8:00-8:59	14,649	107.8%	89.3%
9:00-9:59	1,467	26.9%	27.1%		9:00-9:59	8,958	51.5%	43.3%
10:00-10:59	2,393	102.5%	55.7%		10:00-10:59	10,181	78.3%	56.6%
11:00-11:59	636	85.1%	90.3%		11:00-11:59	7,879	174.5%	108.0%
12:00+	160	42.2%	30.2%		12:00+	2,164	49.5%	32.8%

[XXR & Friends]

On 7/7/2022 at 10:46 PM, ZackM said:

Last Thor4 update of the night.  I'll have final numbers in the morning.  Alpha comps would put it around 29M.

 

 

Alpha - Thor: Love & Thunder - Eastern Time Zone					Alpha - Thor: Love & Thunder - Central Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	NWH Comp	DS2 Comp		Showtimes	Sales	NWH Comp	DS2 Comp
3:00-3:59	32,725	55.5%	86.4%		3:00-3:59	19,532	52.3%	93.3%
4:00-4:59	20,129	54.2%	82.0%		4:00-4:59	10,113	46.0%	76.6%
5:00-5:59	12,836	40.2%	74.7%		5:00-5:59	7,338	39.9%	70.0%
6:00-6:59	36,565	70.4%	82.8%		6:00-6:59	24,215	68.7%	91.5%
7:00-7:59	37,822	58.9%	79.0%		7:00-7:59	21,223	50.9%	69.9%
8:00-8:59	22,977	51.7%	74.1%		8:00-8:59	13,084	46.8%	71.9%
9:00-9:59	35,080	82.9%	86.0%		9:00-9:59	20,017	89.3%	93.7%
10:00-10:59	24,972	48.4%	82.3%		10:00-10:59	10,986	33.1%	63.4%
11:00-11:59	6,005	41.9%	73.3%		11:00-11:59	1,839	17.7%	49.0%
12:00+	3,172	46.1%	63.8%		12:00+	1,716	30.0%	86.6%
Alpha - Thor: Love & Thunder - Mountain Time Zone					Alpha - Thor: Love & Thunder - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	NWH Comp	DS2 Comp		Showtimes	Sales	NWH Comp	DS2 Comp
3:00-3:59	5,618	60.5%	98.3%		3:00-3:59	17,003	57.2%	84.8%
4:00-4:59	3,152	59.7%	92.4%		4:00-4:59	10,051	50.2%	84.5%
5:00-5:59	2,370	55.4%	89.8%		5:00-5:59	7,886	52.3%	76.3%
6:00-6:59	6,245	75.1%	87.3%		6:00-6:59	17,802	67.8%	78.1%
7:00-7:59	5,208	53.6%	75.1%		7:00-7:59	17,632	58.2%	75.4%
8:00-8:59	3,354	64.0%	85.0%		8:00-8:59	13,435	62.7%	81.9%
9:00-9:59	5,260	92.5%	97.1%		9:00-9:59	16,448	88.4%	79.6%
10:00-10:59	1,904	22.0%	44.3%		10:00-10:59	11,352	41.4%	63.2%
11:00-11:59	588	16.9%	83.5%		11:00-11:59	3,296	18.0%	45.2%
12:00+	343	22.9%	64.8%		12:00+	3,886	29.4%	58.8%

 

43 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

 

Update 2 - 85.7k walkups and 473.5k total.

 

Alpha - Wakanda Forever - Eastern Time Zone					Alpha - Wakanda Forever - Central Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	Thor 4	Dr. Strange 2		Showtimes	Sales	Thor 4	Dr. Strange 2
3:00-3:59	33,690	102.9%	89.0%		3:00-3:59	13,536	68.4%	64.6%
4:00-4:59	16,833	83.6%	68.6%		4:00-4:59	6,854	67.1%	51.9%
5:00-5:59	14,261	111.1%	83.0%		5:00-5:59	6,094	82.5%	58.1%
6:00-6:59	31,298	85.6%	70.9%		6:00-6:59	18,484	75.7%	69.9%
7:00-7:59	47,184	124.8%	98.6%		7:00-7:59	26,381	122.6%	86.9%
8:00-8:59	30,905	134.5%	99.7%		8:00-8:59	14,295	108.6%	78.5%
9:00-9:59	19,544	55.7%	47.9%		9:00-9:59	6,786	33.6%	31.8%
10:00-10:59	23,409	93.7%	77.2%		10:00-10:59	10,196	89.1%	58.8%
11:00-11:59	15,167	242.6%	185.1%		11:00-11:59	5,113	209.0%	136.3%
12:00+	3,237	98.8%	65.1%		12:00+	350	18.7%	17.7%
Alpha - Wakanda Forever - Mountain Time Zone					Alpha - Wakanda Forever - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	Thor 4	Dr. Strange 2		Showtimes	Sales	Thor 4	Dr. Strange 2
3:00-3:59	3,545	63.1%	62.0%		3:00-3:59	14,446	85.0%	72.0%
4:00-4:59	1,320	41.9%	38.7%		4:00-4:59	7,125	70.9%	59.9%
5:00-5:59	1,473	62.2%	55.8%		5:00-5:59	6,496	82.4%	62.8%
6:00-6:59	4,334	69.4%	60.6%		6:00-6:59	12,826	72.0%	56.3%
7:00-7:59	5,712	109.7%	82.4%		7:00-7:59	21,421	121.5%	91.6%
8:00-8:59	2,686	80.1%	68.0%		8:00-8:59	14,649	107.8%	89.3%
9:00-9:59	1,467	26.9%	27.1%		9:00-9:59	8,958	51.5%	43.3%
10:00-10:59	2,393	102.5%	55.7%		10:00-10:59	10,181	78.3%	56.6%
11:00-11:59	636	85.1%	90.3%		11:00-11:59	7,879	174.5%	108.0%
12:00+	160	42.2%	30.2%		12:00+	2,164	49.5%	32.8%

 

Thor L&T vs BPWF - Taken about 1.5 hours apart on equivalent nights. 

[keysersoze123]

This data is beautiful. You can see where the overperformance is happening(especially east coast) and rest are par or below Thor. Mountain Time sucks big time but that is the least important region. Thor finished at 523,201. This is probably finishing low 490s. You can do that math on what that means. 

 

 

Edited November 11, 2022 by keysersoze123

[Issac Newton]

TOP PRE-SALES 2022

 

1. Madness Of Multiverse - $105M+

2. WAKANDA FOREVER ~ $85M

3. Love &Thunder - $70M

4. The Batman - $58M

5. Top Gun: Maverick - $51M

[filmlover]

Theater counts for next weekend from The Numbers:

 

The Menu: 2,800

She Said: 2,000

[ZackM]

1 hour ago, ZackM said:

 

 

Update 2 - 85.7k walkups and 473.5k total.

 

Alpha - Wakanda Forever - Eastern Time Zone					Alpha - Wakanda Forever - Central Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	Thor 4	Dr. Strange 2		Showtimes	Sales	Thor 4	Dr. Strange 2
3:00-3:59	33,690	102.9%	89.0%		3:00-3:59	13,536	68.4%	64.6%
4:00-4:59	16,833	83.6%	68.6%		4:00-4:59	6,854	67.1%	51.9%
5:00-5:59	14,261	111.1%	83.0%		5:00-5:59	6,094	82.5%	58.1%
6:00-6:59	31,298	85.6%	70.9%		6:00-6:59	18,484	75.7%	69.9%
7:00-7:59	47,184	124.8%	98.6%		7:00-7:59	26,381	122.6%	86.9%
8:00-8:59	30,905	134.5%	99.7%		8:00-8:59	14,295	108.6%	78.5%
9:00-9:59	19,544	55.7%	47.9%		9:00-9:59	6,786	33.6%	31.8%
10:00-10:59	23,409	93.7%	77.2%		10:00-10:59	10,196	89.1%	58.8%
11:00-11:59	15,167	242.6%	185.1%		11:00-11:59	5,113	209.0%	136.3%
12:00+	3,237	98.8%	65.1%		12:00+	350	18.7%	17.7%
Alpha - Wakanda Forever - Mountain Time Zone					Alpha - Wakanda Forever - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	Thor 4	Dr. Strange 2		Showtimes	Sales	Thor 4	Dr. Strange 2
3:00-3:59	3,545	63.1%	62.0%		3:00-3:59	14,446	85.0%	72.0%
4:00-4:59	1,320	41.9%	38.7%		4:00-4:59	7,125	70.9%	59.9%
5:00-5:59	1,473	62.2%	55.8%		5:00-5:59	6,496	82.4%	62.8%
6:00-6:59	4,334	69.4%	60.6%		6:00-6:59	12,826	72.0%	56.3%
7:00-7:59	5,712	109.7%	82.4%		7:00-7:59	21,421	121.5%	91.6%
8:00-8:59	2,686	80.1%	68.0%		8:00-8:59	14,649	107.8%	89.3%
9:00-9:59	1,467	26.9%	27.1%		9:00-9:59	8,958	51.5%	43.3%
10:00-10:59	2,393	102.5%	55.7%		10:00-10:59	10,181	78.3%	56.6%
11:00-11:59	636	85.1%	90.3%		11:00-11:59	7,879	174.5%	108.0%
12:00+	160	42.2%	30.2%		12:00+	2,164	49.5%	32.8%

 

Final update of the night - 96.8k walkups and 484.5k total.  Comps will put it right around 27m.

 

 

Alpha - Wakanda Forever - Eastern Time Zone					Alpha - Wakanda Forever - Central Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	Thor 4	Dr. Strange 2		Showtimes	Sales	Thor 4	Dr. Strange 2
3:00-3:59	33,690	102.9%	89.0%		3:00-3:59	13,536	68.4%	64.6%
4:00-4:59	16,833	83.6%	68.6%		4:00-4:59	6,854	67.1%	51.9%
5:00-5:59	14,261	111.1%	83.0%		5:00-5:59	6,094	82.5%	58.1%
6:00-6:59	31,298	85.6%	70.9%		6:00-6:59	18,484	75.7%	69.9%
7:00-7:59	47,184	124.8%	98.6%		7:00-7:59	26,381	122.6%	86.9%
8:00-8:59	30,905	134.5%	99.7%		8:00-8:59	14,366	109.1%	78.9%
9:00-9:59	20,066	57.2%	49.2%		9:00-9:59	7,645	37.8%	35.8%
10:00-10:59	25,086	100.5%	82.7%		10:00-10:59	11,533	100.7%	66.5%
11:00-11:59	16,575	265.2%	202.3%		11:00-11:59	5,495	224.7%	146.5%
12:00+	3,595	109.7%	72.3%		12:00+	384	20.5%	19.4%
Alpha - Wakanda Forever - Mountain Time Zone					Alpha - Wakanda Forever - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	Thor 4	Dr. Strange 2		Showtimes	Sales	Thor 4	Dr. Strange 2
3:00-3:59	3,545	63.1%	62.0%		3:00-3:59	14,446	85.0%	72.0%
4:00-4:59	1,320	41.9%	38.7%		4:00-4:59	7,125	70.9%	59.9%
5:00-5:59	1,473	62.2%	55.8%		5:00-5:59	6,496	82.4%	62.8%
6:00-6:59	4,334	69.4%	60.6%		6:00-6:59	12,826	72.0%	56.3%
7:00-7:59	5,712	109.7%	82.4%		7:00-7:59	21,721	123.2%	92.8%
8:00-8:59	2,843	84.8%	72.0%		8:00-8:59	15,730	115.8%	95.9%
9:00-9:59	1,794	32.9%	33.1%		9:00-9:59	10,031	57.6%	48.5%
10:00-10:59	2,599	111.4%	60.5%		10:00-10:59	10,793	83.0%	60.0%
11:00-11:59	688	92.1%	97.7%		11:00-11:59	8,303	183.9%	113.8%
12:00+	166	43.8%	31.4%		12:00+	2,356	53.8%	35.7%

Edited November 11, 2022 by ZackM

[charlie Jatinder]

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Harkins Previews

 

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
602	127,648	40,060	31.38%	$467,472	$11.67

 

 

Comps

0.85x Thor: Love and Thunder - $24.25M

0.70x Doctor Strange in Multiverse of Madness - $25.31M

 

As we know from MTC 1, Mountain Time Zone is under-indexing. Regional variance was visible in chain itself, locations in California were 95% of Thor while Arizona were 80%. 

 

Would guess around ~$27M (+/- $0.5M).

[Eric is Quiet]

On 11/9/2022 at 1:15 PM, Eric Killmonger said:

Quorum Updates

The Fabelmans T-14: 11.89% Awareness, 4.83 Interest

Strange World T-14: 29.4%, 5.26

Violent Night T-23: 32.31%, 5.66

Chevalier T-149: 14.6%, 4.69

Barbie T-254: 33.06%, 4.44

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever T-2: 66.05% Awareness, 6.93 Interest

*Note that Black Panther: Wakanda Forever's Final numbers are subject to change*

Final General Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

General Interest: 100% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 100M

 

The Menu T-9: 23.4% Awareness, 5.32 Interest

*Note that The Menu's Final numbers are subject to change*

Final General Awareness: 4% chance of double-digit opening

General Interest: 68% chance of double-digit opening

Original - Low Awareness: 10% chance of 5M, 0% chance of double digits

Original - Low Interest: 64% chance of 5M, 36% chance of double digits

 

M3gan T-58: 32.73% Awareness, 5.77 Interest

T-60 General Awareness: 96% chance of double-digit opening, 85% chance of 20M, 77% chance of 30M

General Interest: 93% chance of double-digits, 86% chance of 20M, 79% chance of 30M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 30M

Horror Interest: 100% chance of 40M

Quorum Updates

Bones and All T-8: 16.37% Awareness, 5.04 Interest

Devotion T-13: 21.74%, 5.28

Babylon T-43: 24.79%, 5.03

The Little Mermaid T-197: 58.48%, 6.21

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever T-2: 67.72% Awareness, 6.92 Interest

Final General Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

General Interest: 100% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 100M

[PlatnumRoyce]

I know everyone's talking about Black Panther, but does anyone have any data on fanthom's showing of the Chosen that's going wide next weekend? It seems like the answer is no (only search mentions I found was for boxofficepro's long term forecasts which don't include a projection) but is that an oversight by people, randomness in showings or something inherent in how this sort of rollout works? It obviously would lack many good comps (especially with non theatrical event showings) but I want to get my head around that film's baselines. 

If it replicates last year's special event's 9M OW (using hollywood preview rules), it would seemingly have a 50/50 shot to finish second to Black Panther 2 next weekend.  Probably not happening but it's a weird outlier story that no one seems to be talking about. 

 

[M37]

23 hours ago, M37 said:

 

As of T-1, finally appear to be getting some clarity and convergence, but perhaps not the answer some hoped/expected. Generally, comps are trending up vs Strange at nearly the same ratio as down vs Thor, not really shifting the average, still bouncing around $28M, as it essentially has been since T-17/18

EDIT: updated with Alpha numbers posted below

 

 

Some caveats (aka hopium): Tuesday's Election Day, plus the uncertainty in results into Wednesday may have pulled attention away from ticket sales, while the nation's 3rd most populous state being engulfed by hurricane/tropical storm Nicole (👋) may also be a limiting factor, and the Friday holiday creating a higher walk-up potential for Thursday night.

 

With all of that said, IMO the chances of the preview's first digit flipping to a 3 have decreased by a fair amount with the softer sales over last few days. Signs look to be pointing to ~$28M ($27-$29M) for Thursday, but with less certainty on the ceiling than usual for this size of release

 

That, my friends, is what we call convergence, at least in each individual market, excluding Philly (who IIRC was pretty weak for Thor). Final Alpha numbers estimated from last update

 

 

The $27M-$29M range from yesterday help up, though with some greater market variance, trickier to pin down precisely. Disney seems to always round these big previews to an even number, so it will likely be 27, 28 or 29; might as well stick with $28M as the final estimate, which again is essentially where the average has bounced around for over 2 weeks