The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

WB and DC constantly do early screenings and fan events. Suicide Squad, Aquaman. I saw Shazam like a month early because Fandango. Batman is no exception and I doubt any current trajectories influenced it. Just protocol 

[Fox20]

55 minutes ago, 21C said:

I would not discount the importance of said TV Spots. Awareness for The Batman in the US per The Quorum only really started to skyrocket when they started being put out constantly around 3 weeks ago. 

While I maintain my 160 million prediction, I think there are a few factors that come to mind as to why, compared to the usual MCU comps, this early on we aren't seeing that massive massive presale ticket spike that'd make said prediction super-obvious:

1. All the MCU movies have a "don't spoil" factor to them, which causes their audiences to rush into ticket buying a bit more. They're like episodes of a TV series, you never want to get one of those spoiled beforehand.
2. The MCU is a well known well trusted brand, people trust they're gonna watch something they like before seeing a single trailer. That's not the case for DC, tho I believe the final stretch of marketing for The Batman and good word of mouth will cause people to drop whatever knee-jerk skepticism they may have and end up going opening weekend anyway. 

The movie has very high awareness and interest levels. People may not be rushing to get their tickets for it now, but that doesn't mean they won't get them eventually come opening weekend time. 

No really, only Endgame and Spiderman did this

[XXR & Friends]

11 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Just like that we're down from 360+ to 200+, cRuMbLiNg indeed

 

Worse than that. Presales were supposed to be bigger than Endgame OW 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

48 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Australia numbers:

No Way Home- 55m

Eternals- 10m

Shang-Chio 12m

Black Widow- 9.5m

-----

Joker- 27m

BVS- 22.5m

TDKR- 44m

1. These are USD numbers. Doesn't really matter.

2. 10x of AUS (in AUS$) ~ DOM is the normal rule

3. Last year there were CoVID restrictions throughout July-Oct, so those numbers are off 

 

[Joyous Legion]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

1. These are USD numbers. Doesn't really matter.

2. 10x of AUS (in AUS$) ~ DOM is the normal rule

3. Last year there were CoVID restrictions throughout July-Oct, so those numbers are off 

 

How was aus:Dom usd for NWH ow?

Edited February 13, 2022 by Product Driven Legion

[excel1]

6 minutes ago, PenguinXXR said:

 

Worse than that. Presales were supposed to be bigger than Endgame OW 

 

 

🥳

[filmlover]

The Batman being 1) more or less an original comic book movie since it's the third reboot of the character in less than 17 years and 2) as long as it is means that most people are likely waiting the week of to buy tickets. All things considered, an opening in the same arena as Batman v Superman (a movie that always sounded like a sky-is-the-roof blockbuster as both sequel and crossover) would be nothing short of astonishing even if it requires multiple days of early screenings to get there.

[XXR & Friends]

12 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

1. These are USD numbers. Doesn't really matter.

2. 10x of AUS (in AUS$) ~ DOM is the normal rule

3. Last year there were CoVID restrictions throughout July-Oct, so those numbers are off 

 

 

9 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

How was aus:Dom usd for NWH ow?

 

Pretty perfect. About $26.1M AUD. 

[Caesar]

I think for me personally I'm not sure what the big selling point of The Batman is that it would attract a big opening in the post Covid and streaming world where people know they can wait a few weeks and then see it in their home for much cheaper with TV's and sound systems that give an experience not far off from going to the cinema.

 

We've seen a young Batman before, we've seen Batman and Gordon both grow into their roles, we've seen Catwoman played by multiple women before, we've seen the villains before, we've seen multiple Batman grounded movies, we've seen a villain who mocks Batman and tries to outsmart him before multiple times.

 

Combine that with this movie targeting itself more towards an adult audience at a time when adult oriented movies have struggled and being dark at a time when people aren't necessarily looking for something serious and dark and I think it's in a tough position. Not to mention that really long runtime that I could see a lot of people preferring for home viewing.

 

I'd be happy to see it perform well and hit a mid $100 million opening though. The cinema's really need something to bring life back to them right now.

Edited February 13, 2022 by Caesar

[Dragoncaine]

As someone who lives in an apartment, even with my 65" OLED TV, I can never hope to come close to replicating the premium-format theatrical experience. I understand that's not the experience for everyone, but I'll always prefer to see a huge cinematic blockbuster in a theater.

Edited February 13, 2022 by Dragoncaine

[Eric is Quiet]

23 hours ago, Eric Poirot said:

Uncharted Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	404	10285	3.93%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 19

 

Comp

0.354x of F9 T-6 (2.51M)

0.876x of The Suicide Squad T-6 (3.59M)

0.362x of Venom 2 T-6 (4.19M)

0.532x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-6 (2.39M)

Uncharted Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	449	10285	4.37%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 45

 

Comp

0.347x of F9 T-5 (2.46M)

0.879x of The Suicide Squad T-5 (3.6M)

0.353x of Venom 2 T-5 (4.1M)

0.560x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-5 (2.52M)

[ZackM]

10 hours ago, ZackM said:

Couple notes for yesterday's run...Still doesn't include fan event shows (I might try to add them for my run tonight), and the run stopped and started a few times, so there is definitely some inflation from the delays.

 

The Batman Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago
Showings Added	39	5,126
Seats Added	3,506	900,107
Seats Sold	19,131	65,150
2/11/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	425	5,165	84,281	903,613	9.33%

 

 

ATP

$17.56

 

 

Reminder that some of today's numbers were shifted to yesterday's due to some delays on my end.

 

The Batman Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago
Showings Added	47	39	5,126
Seats Added	9,735	3,506	900,107
Seats Sold	6,173	19,131	65,150
2/12/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	429	5,212	90,454	913,348	9.90%

 

 

ATP

$17.47

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Product Driven Legion said:

How was aus:Dom usd for NWH ow?

$260M vs A$26.19M

[Eric is Quiet]

23 hours ago, Eric Poirot said:

The Batman Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-20 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	177	3998	35067	11.40%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 393

 

Comp

0.526x of Black Widow's Final Count (6.95M)

0.841x of Shang-Chi's Final Count (7.4M)

0.763x of Venom 2's Final Count (8.85M)

0.758x of Eternals' Final Count (7.2M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.308x of Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker T-20 (12.3M)

The Batman Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-19 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	177	4219	35067	12.03%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 221

 

Comp

0.556x of Black Widow's Final Count (7.33M)

0.888x of Shang-Chi's Final Count (7.81M)

0.805x of Venom 2's Final Count (9.34M)

0.800x of Eternals' Final Count (7.6M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.321x of Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker T-19 (12.86M)

[WittyUsername]

56 minutes ago, Caesar said:

I think for me personally I'm not sure what the big selling point of The Batman is that it would attract a big opening in the post Covid and streaming world where people know they can wait a few weeks and then see it in their home for much cheaper with TV's and sound systems that give an experience not far off from going to the cinema.

 

We've seen a young Batman before, we've seen Batman and Gordon both grow into their roles, we've seen Catwoman played by multiple women before, we've seen the villains before, we've seen multiple Batman grounded movies, we've seen a villain who mocks Batman and tries to outsmart him before multiple times.

 

Combine that with this movie targeting itself more towards an adult audience at a time when adult oriented movies have struggled and being dark at a time when people aren't necessarily looking for something serious and dark and I think it's in a tough position. Not to mention that really long runtime that I could see a lot of people preferring for home viewing.

 

I'd be happy to see it perform well and hit a mid $100 million opening though. The cinema's really need something to bring life back to them right now.

The hook is that it’s the first true Batman movie in 10 years. 

[Caesar]

10 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

The hook is that it’s the first true Batman movie in 10 years.

Yes and Batman Begins was the first Batman movie in 8 years and had the additional hook of being very different from the past Batman movies, it still only made $73 million over five days which adjusted for inflation would be very close to my guess of a $100 million opening.

 

Plus Justice League was only four and a half years ago, BvS was six years ago and we've now had six people play a live action Batman over the past 30 years.

Edited February 13, 2022 by Caesar

[Dragoncaine]

43 minutes ago, Eric Poirot said:

The Batman Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-19 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	177	4219	35067	12.03%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 221

 

Comp

0.556x of Black Widow's Final Count (7.33M)

0.888x of Shang-Chi's Final Count (7.81M)

0.805x of Venom 2's Final Count (9.34M)

0.800x of Eternals' Final Count (7.6M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.321x of Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker T-19 (12.86M)

Am I wrong, or do these comps seem quite good this far out from wide release, considering the longer period for ticket presales before social media reactions/reviews/hype fully kicks into overdrive?

Edited February 13, 2022 by Dragoncaine
More clarity

[Porthos]

On 2/11/2022 at 10:49 PM, Porthos said:

 

The Batman Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	248	29063	32298	3235	10.02%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	0*
Total Seats Added Today	101
Total Seats Sold Today	354

* NOTE:  A non-reserved seating theater removed a late night showing, but a different theater added a late night PLF showing, resulting in a net zero addition of showings, but 101 more seats tracked.

 

Day 2 Unadjusted Comps 

(EXCEEDINGLY LOL-TASTIC — USE FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY)

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
ET	301.49		199	1073		0/96	14470/15543	6.90%		28.64m
NWH	22.10		1361	14640		0/273	19521/34161	42.86%		11.05m

 

Day 2 Adjusted Comp 

(EXCEEDINGLY LOL-TASTIC — USE FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY)

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	234.96		224	1313		0/104	16873/18186	7.22%		32.46m
Bats (BW adj)	---		341	3085		0/197	23307/26392	11.69%		---

COMP NOTE: The Batman comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: Bats (BW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE: Bats (BW adj) "Sold Day 1" also includes the 475 tickets that were sold to Tuesday showings the previous two days.

 

Tuesday Sales:        637/815     [78.16% sold] [+20 tickets]

Wednesday Sales:   858/1301   [65.95% sold] [+54 tickets]

Thursday Sales:    1740/30182 [5.77% sold] [+280 tickets]

---

Regal:  893/10475  [8.53% sold] [+99 tickets]

Matinee: 126/4799 [2.63% | 3.89% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

T-x comps will start on either Sunday or Monday.

 

The Batman Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	248	28906	32298	3392	10.50%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

157

 

Day 3 Unadjusted Comps 

(EXCEEDINGLY LOL-TASTIC — USE FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY)

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
ET	277.81		148	1221		0/96	14322/15543	7.86%		26.39m
NWH	22.22		628	15268		0/298	21158/36426	41.92%		11.11m

 

Day 3 Adjusted Comp 

(EXCEEDINGLY LOL-TASTIC — USE FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY)

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	215.69		185	1498		0/104	16688/18186	8.24%		29.81m
Bats (BW adj)	---		146	3231		0/197	23161/26392	12.24%		---

COMP NOTE: The Batman comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: Bats (BW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.

 

Tuesday Sales:        644/815     [79.02% sold]     [+7 tickets]

Wednesday Sales:   874/1301   [67.18% sold]   [+16 tickets]

Thursday Sales:    1874/30182   [6.21% sold] [+134 tickets]

---

Regal:  917/10475  [8.75% sold] [+24 tickets]

Matinee: 132/4799 [2.75% | 3.89% of all tickets sold]

[21C]

1 hour ago, Caesar said:

Yes and Batman Begins was the first Batman movie in 8 years and had the additional hook of being very different from the past Batman movies, it still only made $73 million over five days which adjusted for inflation would be very close to my guess of a $100 million opening.

 

Plus Justice League was only four and a half years ago, BvS was six years ago and we've now had six people play a live action Batman over the past 30 years.

I still contend Batman Begins is a terrible comparison because the character is more popular now than he was back then, superhero movies now make more money on average and BvS/JL didn't tarnish the brand nearly as much as Batman and Robin did.

Also more than a hook, I think that Batman Begins being that different from previous Batman movies felt more jarring than anything else and it might have been what ultimately hurt it. If you watched that first teaser and your only association were the Burton-Schumacher films you wouldn't even know it was a Batman movie; audiences had zero idea of what to expect or what to think of Nolan's approach until they finally watched it. The Batman feels very different in a lot of ways but it's also pretty familiar in another ones that pretty much guarantee that most people that liked the Nolan movies and Joker will be interested in this, in the case of Batman Begins, people that liked the Burton films had no clue if they were gonna like Nolan's.

Edited February 13, 2022 by 21C

[charlie Jatinder]

mediocre day 3 seems like. proly because its more like day 4-5 of sales, but even then.

Edited February 13, 2022 by charlie Jatinder