The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

8 hours ago, JustLurking said:

This is why JWD is a good comp due to also being fairly backloaded and GA-skewing. But also it wouldn't really surprise me at all (and I kind of expect it in fact, even moreso looking at the sales distribution in the few comps that have weekend sales) if A2 was even more backloaded and GA-skewing than JWD.

 

It also should be more backloaded than JWD simply because of having a shorter pre-sale window.  JWD being out for 43 days (and fairly decent sales days at that) spread out its ticket sale pattern more than is normal for that type of movie.

 

But, yes @IronJimbo, the expectation is that A2 will be fairly backloaded, which is why I personally have been adding warnings to the comp box as we really don't have a good recent comp for A2.

 

(TGM would be a much better comp if it wasn't for the fact that it blew up here locally — as it is been thinking low to mid 20s for a while now for A2 [though that's more a gut instinct than rigorous analysis])

Edited November 24, 2022 by Porthos

[JustLurking]

16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

It also should be more backloaded than JWD simply because of having a shorter pre-sale window.  JWD being out for 43 days (and fairly decent sales days at that) spread out its ticket sale pattern more than is normal for that type of movie.

 

But, yes @IronJimbo, the expectation is that A2 will be fairly backloaded, which is why I personally have been adding warnings to the comp box as we really don't have a good recent comp for A2.

 

(TGM would be a much better comp if it wasn't for the fact that it blew up here locally — as it is been thinking low to mid 20s for a while now for A2 [though that's more a gut instinct than rigorous analysis])

This is what I feel like too, most JWD comps aside from some underindexers like drafthouse converging to low 20s in 7-10 days, with an outside chance for 24-25 th if reviews come out swinging.

 

Looking at the few comps that have sat-sun the distribution already feels very good so I think whatever it makes from previews will probably have 8+ IM.

[Old Spice]

Turkey Day Salt Lake Valley Update for Avatar 2: The Way of Water

 

Preview night:

Cinemark Sugarhouse (SLC, non-PLF) 36 (+12)

Cinemark Draper XD 71 (+6)

Cinemark Farmington XD 143 (+31)

Total Tix Sold: 250 (+49) 24.4% increase from 48 hours ago.

 

Current A2 presale as a % of FINAL presale:

Nope 83%

Black Adam 75.8%

BP: Wakanda 20.5%

 

Current A2 presale as a % of FINAL presale, Sugarhouse only:

JW: Dominion 9.9%

Eternals 18.3%

The Batman 8.6%

Dune 15.7%

 

Happy Thanksgiving, Everyone!! 🦃

[ZackM]

From last night:

 

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago
Showings Added	26	549	3,826
Seats Added	3,645	117,851	614,143
Seats Sold	4,706	12,555	33,233
11/23/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	435	4,401	50,494	735,639	6.86%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	5	18	43
ATP
$19.62

 

Edited November 24, 2022 by ZackM

[el sid]

8 hours ago, romeross said:

10ml or over? I hope

Around 10M would be my guess too at the moment.

Boxofficepro sees it between 8-13M OW and the mix of a family film and violence or horror can work, e.g. Krampus made 16.3M OW. OTOH the trailer of Violent Night shows way too much in my opinion. The reviews could decide. And of course it needs at least ok jumps in the next few days.

[filmlover]

Violent Night looks so silly. In a positive way, at least. Hopefully the reviews are decent.

[Tinalera]

•  north

Posted just now

So-just doing Montreal I was only being given 4 theatres for the area, If I want to do quebec proper I may have to do more breaking down, but I figured I would use Montreal, and throw in Halifax (Nova Scotia), Moncton (New Brunswick) and St Johns (New Foundland)

 

Still in the early testing phases here, but this gives us an East of Ontario look. 

 

Avatar 2

Montreal, Halifax, Moncton, St Johns

Thurs Dec 15 (taken Nov 24) No Comps

 

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
montreal	4	19	427	4634	5061	0.0843
Halifax NS	2	8	174	2118	2992	0.0759
Mon NB	1	2	0	520	520	0
St Jon NF	1	4	23	961	984	0.0233

 

 

Im assuming as we get closer slowly more seats will show up at these theatres. Will have my first Calgary AB update tomorrow (and I am willing to do Vancouver if person who covers that area is alright with it-but again, no toe stepping  

[motionpic05]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Violent Night looks so silly. In a positive way, at least. Hopefully the reviews are decent.

I've seen some early twitter reactions and they are very good. Universal surely seems to have some hopes for it.

I think a Krampus OW seems possible. 

[el sid]

I'm sorry. I was just too busy to count today .
But from what I saw, not much changed: Glass Onion had very good Friday presales (in only 700 theaters according to boxofficepro, what a stupid idea), those for Strange World were ok and the rest will very probably stay way under the 10M mark.

[Old Spice]

25 minutes ago, el sid said:

I'm sorry. I was just too busy to count today .
But from what I saw, not much changed: Glass Onion had very good Friday presales (in only 700 theaters according to boxofficepro, what a stupid idea), those for Strange World were ok and the rest will very probably stay way under the 10M mark.

It's a strange world indeed when Netflix decides to give one week in theaters for Glass Onion and Disney foregoes theatrical altogether with Hocus Pocus 2.  Each could have made bank and still had plenty of gas left for the streaming release.

[ZackM]

On 11/23/2022 at 10:59 PM, ZackM said:

Gonna finish at about 65k for today.  Also, it fucking rules.

Glass Onion at 55k sold at Alpha today.

Edited November 25, 2022 by ZackM

[lorddemaxus]

5 hours ago, A Star is Delayed said:

It's a strange world indeed when Netflix decides to give one week in theaters for Glass Onion and Disney foregoes theatrical altogether with Hocus Pocus 2.  Each could have made bank and still had plenty of gas left for the streaming release.

Hocus Pocus 2 would've flopped theatrically. 

[Eric is Quiet]

On 11/23/2022 at 11:52 PM, Eric Clade said:

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-22 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	152	1211	26516	4.57%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 99

 

Comp

2.816x of F9 T-22 (20M)

1.904x of Top Gun 2 T-22 (36.67M)

0.878x of Jurassic World 3 T-22 (15.81M)

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	152	1304	26516	4.92%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 93

 

Comp

2.650x of F9 T-21 (18.82M)

1.741x of Top Gun 2 T-21 (33.53M)

0.935x of Jurassic World 3 T-21 (16.82M)

[Eric is Quiet]

On 11/23/2022 at 11:56 PM, Eric Clade said:

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-28 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	73	162	11535	1.40%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 40

 

Comp

0.198x of Sing 2 T-28 (1.93M)

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-27 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	73	211	11535	1.83%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 49

 

Comp

0.213x of Sing 2 T-27 (2.07M)

[Eric is Quiet]

On 11/23/2022 at 11:56 PM, Eric Clade said:

[ZackM]

10 hours ago, ZackM said:

From last night:

 

 

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago
Showings Added	26	549	3,826
Seats Added	3,645	117,851	614,143
Seats Sold	4,706	12,555	33,233
11/23/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	435	4,401	50,494	735,639	6.86%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	5	18	43
ATP
$19.62

 

 

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago
Showings Added	1	26	549	3,826
Seats Added	299	3,645	117,851	614,143
Seats Sold	4,269	4,706	12,555	33,233
11/24/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	435	4,402	54,763	735,938	7.44%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	5	21	53
ATP
$19.51

[Porthos]

43 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Hocus Pocus 2 would've flopped theatrically. 

 

Likely would have been hit with the "should have gone to steaming" bat which could have resulted in a worse view of the film, but as I think about it a bit more, it might have pulled a Cruella and had a low(-ish) OW but long(-ish) legs.

 

It's funny how expectations and views of product might change depending or not something gets a release.  Like right now people are saying "should have released it" as it found an audience on D+ (almost immediately in fact). 

 

But if it was released, would people have said "Should have dumped it straight to D+" and not given it much of a chance?   My instinct says it wouldn't have been appreciated as much, but then again, there's Cruella as the contra-example.

 

Kinda talking myself out of agreeing with you a bit.   But, like, I guess I just really don't know as we really haven't been in this new era all that long (and said era is still evolving anyway).

 

[Porthos]

On 11/23/2022 at 10:50 PM, Porthos said:

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-22 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	142	19477	21338	1861	8.72%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

172

 

Day 3 Comp                   [USE AT OWN RISK DUE TO UNCHARTED WATERS]

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune	342.73		52	543		0/74	11106/11649	4.66%		2915	63.84%		17.48m
TGM	80.95		390	2299		0/257	33923/36222	6.35%		11474	16.22%		15.59m
JWD	180.15		96	1033		0/163	21792/22825	4.53%		10966	16.97%		32.43m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Avatar 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

BONUS COMP FOR REFERENCE ONLY

JWD T-22

102.87

41

1809

0/179

22839/24647

7.34%

10966

16.97%

18.52m

 

Regal:         390/7309  [5.34% sold]
Matinee:     278/2671   [10.41% | 14.94% of all tickets sold]
3D:          1272/15634  [8.14% | 68.35% of all tickets sold]
PLF 3D:    1044/7439  [14.03% | 58.79% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

T-x starting tomorrow (which means Dune will be leaving the comp box)

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-21 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	142	19308	21338	2030	9.51%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

169

 

T-21 Comp                   [GRAIN OF SALT DUE TO HAVING NOTHING BETTER EDITION]

	%		Sold T-21	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	70.46		2406	2881		0/248	29316/32197	8.95%		21117	9.61%		15.22m
TGM	88.30		390	2299		0/257	33923/36222	6.35%		11474	17.69%		17.01m
JWD	107.98		71	1880		0/184	22927/24807	7.58%		10966	18.51%		19.44m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Avatar 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       429/7309  [5.87% sold]
Matinee:    306/2671  [11.46% | 15.07% of all tickets sold]
3D:        1399/15634  [8.95% | 68.92% of all tickets sold]
PLF 3D:    1154/7439  [15.51% | 59.51% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Thanksgiving had absolutely no effect today, locally.  Hell might have even helped, slightly, with all of the A2 promotions on various sporting contests.

 

(something something Sacto SciFi something something)

[DAJK]

Hey team, I know I haven’t been as active in this thread lately as I used to be, but that’s mostly due to school taking up so much of my time the last couple of months and just not posting as much on the forums lately.

 

I’ve had access to numbers at various different theatres since 2015 due to my time working at a movie theatre. More recently I had bigger access to numbers across most of Canada as I moved up from working just as a concessionist. And even though I don’t work for a theatre anymore, I still had access to some regional data due to how their website works with seating charts that remain available even after the show starts. And since I’ve collected data on these regional theatres going back a decade, I was able to get some really good comps for each new release.

 

However, unfortunately the company has completely redesigned its website, and so not only do I not have access to all the new data I’ve had for all these years from working at theatres, but I won’t have access to regional data anymore, since the seating chart has been changed and updated and no longer remains available after the show has started. So after this weekend, I won’t be able to provide data as often or with as consistent comparisons as I used to.

 

I still have friends who work at theatres who can provide me with data on some of the bigger releases once in a while (because they know how important tracking this stuff is for me) but other than occasional pieces of data that I can share here, this seems like it is going to be the end of an era for me and my contributions to this thread. I will still post what info I have here whenever I can, but I won’t have numbers as consistently and across as many different markets to get a more general sense of how a movie is trending. 
 

It sucks not having the same access and outlets I’ve had for nearly a decade, but I want to thank everybody in this thread for the amazing work you all do! This thread has come a long way ever since 2015/16 when I started posting “comparison data” from my local theatre, and started to collect data and build comps. Seeing how this has transformed box office tracking, and how many people have really taken to using local metrics to make insanely accurate predictions is amazing. I’m so glad to have been a part of, arguably, one of the best box office tracking programs on the internet (if not the best  ) and I hope to contribute in any way I can moving forward.

[ThatWaluigiDude]

6 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Likely would have been hit with the "should have gone to steaming" bat which could have resulted in a worse view of the film, but as I think about it a bit more, it might have pulled a Cruella and had a low(-ish) OW but long(-ish) legs.

 

It's funny how expectations and views of product might change depending or not something gets a release.  Like right now people are saying "should have released it" as it found an audience on D+ (almost immediately in fact). 

 

But if it was released, would people have said "Should have dumped it straight to D+" and not given it much of a chance?   My instinct says it wouldn't have been appreciated as much, but then again, there's Cruella as the contra-example.

 

Kinda talking myself out of agreeing with you a bit.   But, like, I guess I just really don't know as we really haven't been in this new era all that long (and said era is still evolving anyway).

 

With that 40M budget maybe they could have risked a theatrical release, but like, is one of those things that I could see it doing some moves in US but being completely dead overseas. Maybe the D+ release was the better choice, I dunno.