The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 12/11/2022 at 8:02 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Avatar 2	T-4	Jax	5	84	117	1,615	11,195	14.43%
		Phx	7	92	134	1,238	13,532	9.15%
		Ral	8	73	92	1,409	8,765	16.08%
	Total		20	249	343	4,262	33,492	12.73%
Babylon	T-11	Jax	5	12	-1	15	1,380	1.09%
		Phx	4	13	2	26	1,357	1.92%
		Ral	8	17	5	33	1,618	2.04%
	Total		17	42	6	74	4,355	1.70%
I Wanna Dance	T-11	Jax	5	15	2	26	1,454	1.79%
		Phx	4	13	6	27	1,277	2.11%
		Ral	9	25	14	51	2,579	1.98%
	Total		17	53	22	104	5,310	1.96%
M3GAN	T-25	Jax	5	20	0	5	1,758	0.28%
		Phx	4	11	2	8	1,327	0.60%
		Ral	7	14	0	10	1,817	0.55%
	Total		16	45	2	23	4,902	0.47%
Puss in Boots	T-10	Jax	6	31	2	22	3,261	0.67%
		Phx	6	29	2	16	3,388	0.47%
		Ral	6	33	11	51	3,865	1.32%
	Total		18	93	15	89	10,514	0.85%

 

Avatar 2 T-4 comps

 - Eternals - 1.726x (16.39m)

 - TG2 - .845x (16.32m)

 - JW3 - missed

 - F9 - 3.43x (24.38m)

 - Ghostbusters - 5.308x (22.03m)

 - NTTD - 4.29x (22.32m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - missed

 - Dune - missed

 

ATP Adjusted

 - Eternals - 19.42m

 - JW3 - missed

 - FB3 - missed

 

Puss in Boots T-10 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .211x (1.05m)

 - Minions 2 - missed

 - Lyle Lyle - 6.36x (3.66m)

 - Super Pets - 2.07x (4.55m)

 

I Wanna Dance T-11 comps

 - Elvis - missed

 

Babylon T-11 comps

 - Elvis - missed

 

M3GAN T-25 comps

 - Nope - .117x (751k)

 

(Not much to go on)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Avatar 2	T-3	Jax	5	84	177	1,792	11,195	16.01%
		Phx	7	92	165	1,403	13,532	10.37%
		Ral	8	73	159	1,568	8,765	17.89%
	Total		20	249	501	4,763	33,492	14.22%
Babylon	T-10	Jax	5	12	3	18	1,380	1.30%
		Phx	4	13	14	40	1,357	2.95%
		Ral	8	17	1	34	1,618	2.10%
	Total		17	42	18	92	4,355	2.11%
I Wanna Dance	T-10	Jax	5	15	0	26	1,454	1.79%
		Phx	4	13	2	29	1,277	2.27%
		Ral	9	25	1	52	2,579	2.02%
	Total		17	53	3	107	5,310	2.02%
M3GAN	T-24	Jax	5	20	0	5	1,758	0.28%
		Phx	4	11	1	9	1,327	0.68%
		Ral	7	14	0	10	1,817	0.55%
	Total		16	45	1	24	4,902	0.49%
Puss in Boots	T-9	Jax	6	31	0	22	3,261	0.67%
		Phx	6	29	-4	12	3,388	0.35%
		Ral	6	33	3	54	3,865	1.40%
	Total		18	93	-1	88	10,514	0.84%

 

Avatar 2 T-3 comps

 - Eternals - 1.792x (17.02m)

 - TG2 - .843x (16.26m)

 - JW3 - .948x (17.06m)

 - F9 - 3.29x (23.35m)

 - Ghostbusters - 5.21x (21.6m)

 - NTTD - missed

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 2.54x (15.23m)

 - Dune - 4.04x (20.6m)

 

ATP Adjusted

 - Eternals - 20.03m

 - JW3 - 18.72m

 - FB3 - 18.6m

 

Puss in Boots T-9 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .186x (925k)

 - Minions 2 - .233x (2.5m)

 - Lyle Lyle - 5.87x (3.37m)

 - Super Pets - 1.6x (3.52m)

 

I Wanna Dance T-10 comps

 - Elvis - .421x (1.35m)

 - Easter Sunday - 3.34x (1.67m)

 - Respect - 4.46x (2.9m)

 

Babylon T-10 comps

 - Elvis - .362x (1.16m)

 - Bullet Train - .424x (1.42m)

 

M3GAN T-24 comps

 - Nope - .116x (742k)

[ThomasNicole]

Anedoctal but in Brazil, i'm seeing the same pattern. 

 

Premium screens selling fast and when the good seats ends, instead of buying for the usual screens people are just buying the premium screens for the next day. 

 

Runtime seems to be a factor as well, sales for later shows are way behind the earlier ones.

[Grebacio]

Presales for Puss are disappointing.

Wonder if it can have good legs due to the WoM.

So far everyone says it's the franchise best since Shrek 2

 

Edited December 12, 2022 by Grebacio

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, Grebacio said:

Presales for Puss are disappointed.

Wonder if it can have good legs due to the WoM.

So far everyone says it's the franchise best since Shrek 2

 

Probably, Sing 2 had a very meh OW and ended up with 160M total. 

 

I can see a similar run for Puss

 

[IronJimbo]

6 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Anedoctal but in Brazil, i'm seeing the same pattern. 

 

Premium screens selling fast and when the good seats ends, instead of buying for the usual screens people are just buying the premium screens for the next day. 

 

Runtime seems to be a factor as well, sales for later shows are way behind the earlier ones.

imagine waiting 13 years to watch an Avatar movie in standard 2d or 3d

[XXR & Friends]

8 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

Presales for Puss are disappointing.

Wonder if it can have good legs due to the WoM.

So far everyone says it's the franchise best since Shrek 2

 

 

5 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

imagine waiting 13 years to watch an Avatar movie in standard 2d or 3d

Hopefully those shows are filled in by walkups. Typically if you don’t care enough to buy early, you probably aren’t super worried about screening type.

[KlapEastwood]

I’ve picked through 10-15 theaters in the Chat/Knoxville circuit and they all have better Saturday IMAX presales than any other time slot or date.

[M37]

On 12/11/2022 at 10:11 AM, M37 said:

 

Average chart with data through T-5.  While the main average line is bouncy depending on which data points are updated each day, there is definitely some downward motion in last few days, particularly as compared to TGM. Might add another average line (for Batman) as a lower bound given the recent trends (though that title had IMO an odd sales pattern, both by timing/pace and market distribution)

 

 

 

Updated Chart through T-4

 

First, the good news: Sunday sales were much improved over Fri & Sat across all markets, and as a result both the overall and TGM averages held at around $18M. But I'm glad the consensus on the board has generally lowered expectations, because that's about the end of the good news (and so I'm going to be a bit more frank in my comments this time)

 

For the pre-release weekend, sales grew by less than 23% across all market samples (except one). While not on CBM level of low growth, for which there is a much higher initial base of sales and so naturally lower % growth over time, it suggests a very muted ramp up over the last few days, shallowing even the already average pace of the TGM comp and way below walk-up heavy JWD, trending between TGM and Batman (hey, that sounds familiar...). I've added more Batman figures to the chart, with the average there around $15.5M (with caveats of unweighted ATP and some comps include the EA shows, and that Batman was IMO a little ... weird)

 

Based on data in hand, I would project final Thursday ticket sales come in slightly above the TGM Thursday Only figures, albeit with a higher ATP, but putting the preview value in more mid to high teens than high teens to $20M+ range. With that said, reviews come out tomorrow, and that could result in a decent bump that pushes it back to the higher range

 

And if all of that isn't enough cold water for you, one more question to pose: if it looks as though Avatwo is going to be a pre-sale heavy for Thursday, with fewer walk-up sales, then perhaps those higher weekend tallies - which everyone (including me!) has said suggest a higher IM - may not be quite as robust as they seem

Edited December 12, 2022 by M37

[Menor the Destroyer]

Expecting Alpha to final at around 280k which would be 32% higher in tickets than TGM true Thu (~40% higher in gross, which I think would be around 20m, though I can't recall exactly how much was estimated for TGM EA). TGM underindexed heavily in Alpha, though, so I'd call that more of an upper bound than a realistic expectation (JWD would be around 20.7m). Batman could provide a good lower bound (would be around 16.2). Expecting around 18m overall. 

Edited December 12, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[Dragoncaine]

It's funny how adjusted expectations can lead to disappointment. I remember saying several weeks ago that anything between $140-150m OW with typical Cameron backloaded-ness would be great - and it still would be! But I was letting my head float in the clouds a bit with a $170-180m expectation this past week. I'm seeing anywhere from $150-160m now, probably on the lower end of that bound.

[M37]

11 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Expecting Alpha to final at around 280k which would be 32% higher in tickets than TGM true Thu (~40% higher in gross, which I think would be around 20m, though I can't recall exactly how much was estimated for TGM EA). TGM underindexed heavily in Alpha, though, so I'd call that more of an upper bound than a realistic expectation. Batman could provide a good lower bound (would be around 16.2). Expecting around 18m overall. 

Two issues with the TGM comps are the unusual market distribution (Alpha underindex, or more accurately, TGM over preformed in flyover country), and also a higher variance in initial sales. At present, Avatwo growth is basically tracking between Alpha and Sacto, and that the Denver, Megaplex, and Jax/Ral/Pho markets aren’t blowing up is what makes me believe it’s going to trend toward that lower growth rate like Sacto 

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, M37 said:

Two issues with the TGM comps are the unusual market distribution (Alpha underindex, or more accurately, TGM over preformed in flyover country), and also a higher variance in initial sales. At present, Avatwo growth is basically tracking between Alpha and Sacto, and that the Denver, Megaplex, and Jax/Ral/Pho markets aren’t blowing up is what makes me believe it’s going to trend toward that lower growth rate like Sacto 

I'm not really using TGM for comping the final day growth, just general growth rate (mixed with gut) for films in the final week, adding in an anticipated review bump from expected strong reviews tomorrow. Day-wise, I have it around 14k today, 20k Tuesday, 26k Wed, 26k final PS, 66-67k walkups. 

Edited December 12, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[ZackM]

25 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Expecting Alpha to final at around 280k which would be 32% higher in tickets than TGM true Thu (~40% higher in gross, which I think would be around 20m, though I can't recall exactly how much was estimated for TGM EA). TGM underindexed heavily in Alpha, though, so I'd call that more of an upper bound than a realistic expectation (JWD would be around 21.5m). Batman could provide a good lower bound (would be around 16.2). Expecting around 18m overall. 

 

JW:D is the most under-indexed alpha movie that I've tracked, while The Batman is the most over-indexed.  So as far as comps go, those two movies will set the boundaries for expectations.  JW:D comp will end up 27% higher than The Batman and everything else will fall in between.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 12/10/2022 at 12:46 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-5	Avatar 2	PLF	54	66	2,410	8,429	28.59%	$15.78	$38,027.99
		Standard	44	59	695	5,959	11.66%	$12.20	$8,475.90
	Total		98	125	3,105	14,388	21.58%	$14.98	$46,503.89
T-6	Avatar 2 (Fri)	PLF	81	116	2,401	12,771	18.80%	$16.26	$39,042.35
		Standard	61	48	630	8,052	7.82%	$12.41	$7,817.41
	Total		142	164	3,031	20,823	14.56%	$15.46	$46,859.76
T-7	Avatar 2 (Sat)	PLF	81	130	2,449	12,777	19.17%	$15.27	$37,407.26
		Standard	60	42	594	7,941	7.48%	$11.04	$6,559.83
	Total		141	172	3,043	20,718	14.69%	$14.45	$43,967.09
T-8	Avatar 2 (Sun)	PLF	81	97	1,492	12,771	11.68%	$14.99	$22,368.80
		Standard	59	30	401	7,838	5.12%	$10.11	$4,054.58
	Total		140	127	1,893	20,609	9.19%	$13.96	$26,423.38

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-5	Avatar 2	N	70	87	2,399	10,373	23.13%	$15.81	$37,925.68
		Y	28	38	706	4,015	17.58%	$12.15	$8,578.21
	Total		98	125	3,105	14,388	21.58%	$14.98	$46,503.89
T-6	Avatar 2 (Fri)	N	64	141	2,311	9,902	23.34%	$16.51	$38,160.27
		Y	78	23	720	10,921	6.59%	$12.08	$8,699.49
	Total		142	164	3,031	20,823	14.56%	$15.46	$46,859.76
T-7	Avatar 2 (Sat)	N	64	82	1,486	10,020	14.83%	$17.10	$25,405.50
		Y	77	90	1,557	10,698	14.55%	$11.92	$18,561.59
	Total		141	172	3,043	20,718	14.69%	$14.45	$43,967.09
T-8	Avatar 2 (Sun)	N	62	52	686	9,688	7.08%	$17.92	$12,291.40
		Y	78	75	1,207	10,921	11.05%	$11.71	$14,131.98
	Total		140	127	1,893	20,609	9.19%	$13.96	$26,423.38

 

 

Avatar previews T-5 comps

 - NWH - .198x (9.88m)

 - Batman - missed

 - Thor 4 - .47x (13.64m)

 - DS2 - missed

 - BP2 - missed

 - Top Gun 2 - missed

 - FB3 - missed

 - JW3 - missed

 

Avatar Fri T-6 comps

 - NWH - .235x (16.91m)

 - DS2 - missed

 - Batman - missed

 

Don't have any comps this far out for weekend sales unfortunately.

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-3	Avatar 2	PLF	54	214	2,624	8,427	31.14%	$15.76	$41,345.27
		Standard	46	283	978	6,183	15.82%	$12.21	$11,943.52
	Total		100	497	3,602	14,610	24.65%	$14.79	$53,288.79
T-4	Avatar 2 (Fri)	PLF	81	462	2,863	12,771	22.42%	$16.17	$46,289.79
		Standard	61	273	903	8,052	11.21%	$12.08	$10,905.42
	Total		142	735	3,766	20,823	18.09%	$15.19	$57,195.21
T-5	Avatar 2 (Sat)	PLF	81	583	3,032	12,777	23.73%	$15.28	$46,322.01
		Standard	60	203	797	7,941	10.04%	$11.08	$8,831.36
	Total		141	786	3,829	20,718	18.48%	$14.40	$55,153.37
T-6	Avatar 2 (Sun)	PLF	81	293	1,785	12,771	13.98%	$14.93	$26,658.32
		Standard	59	150	551	7,838	7.03%	$9.96	$5,487.10
	Total		140	443	2,336	20,609	11.33%	$13.76	$32,145.42

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-3	Avatar 2	N	72	406	2,805	10,595	26.47%	$15.55	$43,622.47
		Y	28	91	797	4,015	19.85%	$12.13	$9,666.32
	Total		100	497	3,602	14,610	24.65%	$14.79	$53,288.79
T-4	Avatar 2 (Fri)	N	64	569	2,880	9,902	29.09%	$16.18	$46,611.59
		Y	78	166	886	10,921	8.11%	$11.95	$10,583.62
	Total		142	735	3,766	20,823	18.09%	$15.19	$57,195.21
T-5	Avatar 2 (Sat)	N	64	417	1,903	10,020	18.99%	$16.98	$32,312.49
		Y	77	369	1,926	10,698	18.00%	$11.86	$22,840.88
	Total		141	786	3,829	20,718	18.48%	$14.40	$55,153.37
T-6	Avatar 2 (Sun)	N	62	143	829	9,688	8.56%	$17.66	$14,643.79
		Y	78	300	1,507	10,921	13.80%	$11.61	$17,501.63
	Total		140	443	2,336	20,609	11.33%	$13.76	$32,145.42

*All new sales since Saturday morning

 

Avatar previews T-3 comps

 - NWH - .21x (10.52m)

 - Batman - .78x (13.73m)

 - Thor 4 - .476x (13.8m)

 - DS2 - .286x (10.28m)

 - BP2 - .529x (14.8m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.178x (17.31m)

 - FB3 - 3.245x (19.47m)

 - JW3 - .702x (12.64m)

 

Avatar Fri T-4 comps

 - NWH - .264x (19.01m)

 - DS2 - .385x (21.05m)

 - Batman - .81x (28.37m)

 - TG2 - 1.059x (34.63m)

 - JW3 - .694x (28.85m)

 

Don't have any comps this far out for weekend sales unfortunately.

[M37]

25 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I'm not really using TGM for comping the final day growth, just general growth rate (mixed with gut) for films in the final week, adding in an anticipated review bump from expected strong reviews tomorrow. Day-wise, I have it around 14k today, 20k Tuesday, 26k Wed, 26k final PS, 66-67k walkups. 

Ah, I see. From here, would probably peg Alpha final at 260K-280K (+100-115%, while TGM was +132%). The reason I'm eyeing Batman more is that it also had a pretty significant review bump (+106% from T-4 to T-F, better than it should have been, because DC has been mediocre to terrible too often that people were waiting), and as @ZackM said, overindexed, which I think it more likely than not for this title. Not saying its going to pace and overindex the same and wind up at that $15M range, but $16/$17 is certainly possible

[ThomasNicole]

I can see $18M as well, i think is very fair even if i believe something like 19-20M are still reasonable with some good jumps after the reviews tomorrow.

 

Below 18M seems a bit too pessimistic imo [just like +21M seems overly optimistic atp], let´s see how this final week will be.

[Menor the Destroyer]

13 minutes ago, M37 said:

Ah, I see. From here, would probably peg Alpha final at 260K-280K (+100-115%, while TGM was +132%). The reason I'm eyeing Batman more is that it also had a pretty significant review bump (+106% from T-4 to T-F, better than it should have been, because DC has been mediocre to terrible too often that people were waiting), and as @ZackM said, overindexed, which I think it more likely than not for this title. Not saying its going to pace and overindex the same and wind up at that $15M range, but $16/$17 is certainly possible

I don't believe the Alpha skew is likely to be as extreme as Batman. Sacto is probably the biggest regional comp that doesn't include much Alpha theaters, there the Batman comp is significantly higher than Alpha, while the JWD/TGM comps are much lower, which I think suggests a skew closer to the middle of that range. 

[Porthos]

52 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I don't believe the Alpha skew is likely to be as extreme as Batman. Sacto is probably the biggest regional comp that doesn't include much Alpha theaters, there the Batman comp is significantly higher than Alpha, while the JWD/TGM comps are much lower, which I think suggests a skew closer to the middle of that range. 

 

Sacto doesn't have any theaters from MTC1.

(just clarifying slightly)

[misterpepp]

Man Called Otto tix should be on sale this Wed, Dec 14.

[Verrows]

4 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

imagine waiting 13 years to watch an Avatar movie in standard 2d or 3d

You do realize your massive aspirations for this movie depend on those seats being filled up right? If they don't, it won't come close to the heights some of you are trotting out there.