The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Menor the Destroyer]

Quantumania 24(ish) hours Marcus:

 

Thursday:
Showtimes: 571

Tickets Sold: 7592/94425 

 

0.746x of BP:WF (20.88m)

2.16x A2 (36.72m) 

 

Unfortunately I don't have TGM or Bats. Seems like BP2 will be the best comp, didn't expect before PS started that the first day would be this close honestly. My initial guess from Day 1 PS is previews of ~23m. 

Edited January 18, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[charlie Jatinder]

53 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

 I imagine I'd get whipped pretty quickly.....my er.....younger days are long behind me lol

You overestimate @DAJK. He is a weakling.

[Porthos]

I got to admit, I'm a little curious about expectations here.  These are the Day Two ticket sales for the movies I comped yesterday:

 

		Sold Day 2
MoM		654
TG:M		393
L&T		563
BP2		469
A2		369

 

What do folks here think AM3's target for today should be in Sacto?

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

I got to admit, I'm a little curious about expectations here.  These are the Day Two ticket sales for the movies I comped yesterday:

 

		Sold Day 2
MoM		654
TG:M		393
L&T		563
BP2		469
A2		369

 

What do folks here think AM3's target for today should be in Sacto?

700

Edited January 18, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

700

 

Interesting....

 

Any other folks want to chime in with expectations?

Edited January 18, 2023 by Porthos

[XXR & Friends]

16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Interesting....

 

Any other folks want to chime in with expectations?

Id be happy with anything over 400. I’ll go with 451 as my guess.

[Ronin46]

Anything over 400 would be great.

[Ronin46]

1 minute ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

Id be happy with anything over 4000. I’ll go with 4510 as my guess.

 

Since you posted 3 seconds before me its only right I make an adjustment,

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

Id be happy with anything over 400. I’ll go with 451 as my guess.

That would be pretty bad considering yesterday wasn't a full D1.

Edited January 18, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Menor Reborn said:

That would be pretty bad considering yesterday wasn't a full D1.

 

That is true, however there is the discussion from last night about just how much we could have adjusted D1 due to the late start, and so I'd presume some of that should be seen as spillover into today.  Though, admittedly, it might also be a bit more spread out over D2 and D3.

[Eric is Anxious]

4 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

Anything over 400  420 would be great.

I know, right?

[DAJK]

38 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

You overestimate @DAJK. He is a weakling.

A weakling with a second degree black belt

[M37]

44 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I got to admit, I'm a little curious about expectations here.  These are the Day Two ticket sales for the movies I comped yesterday:

 

		Sold Day 2
MoM		654
TG:M		393
L&T		563
BP2		469
A2		369

 

What do folks here think AM3's target for today should be in Sacto?

Whatever number gets you to ~60% of Thor L&T and like ~ 75% of BPWF, so (quick mental math) 700-750? Day 2 here should be be higher given the shorter window for Day 1, still playing catch-up a bit 

 

If Quantamania is this character’s Ragnarok - vaulting it from T3 into T2 - then it should sell like the big boys, not be comped on curve 

[charlie Jatinder]

59 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I got to admit, I'm a little curious about expectations here.  These are the Day Two ticket sales for the movies I comped yesterday:

 

		Sold Day 2
MoM		654
TG:M		393
L&T		563
BP2		469
A2		369

 

What do folks here think AM3's target for today should be in Sacto?

Won't be surprised with 700+, may be even closer to 1K.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Menor Reborn said:

700

 

42 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

Id be happy with anything over 400. I’ll go with 451 as my guess.

 

42 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

Anything over 400 would be great.

 

11 minutes ago, M37 said:

Whatever number gets you to ~60% of Thor L&T and like ~ 75% of BPWF, so (quick mental math) 700-750? Day 2 here should be be higher given the shorter window for Day 1, still playing catch-up a bit 

 

If Quantamania is this character’s Ragnarok - vaulting it from T3 into T2 - then it should sell like the big boys, not be comped on curve 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 2 Totals in Sacto, as of 6:10 - 6:50 [more or less]: 

 

609 tickets sold

 

Might have enough juice to actually hit 700 tickets sold locally when I start my sample at around 11pm/11:15pm, but might be a close thing.  Just depend on how long the initial pace keeps up before Sacto starts to turn in for the night.

 

I admit I was slightly curious to see what the 24 hour(-ish) total was from my initial count last night (1,300-ish since the initial count, ftr), plus I'm more than a little curious to see just how many ticket sales there really is locally from 6:30pm - 11pm.

 

Do think 750 is pushing it, @M37 but it might fall within that range.  

 

ETA:  1k is out of the question though, Jat.

Edited January 18, 2023 by Porthos

[Verrows]

So is it safe to say that Kang is actually a big deal after all?

[charlie Jatinder]

47 minutes ago, DAJK said:

A weakling with a second degree black belt

Still a weakling. 😌

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Verrows said:

So is it safe to say that Kang is actually a big deal after all?

I have... thoughts about this.  And as a non-MCU partisan I might be a bit more clearer eyed about this.

 

...

 

Was gonna wait on this until I started to get more data, but the initial signs out of Sacto for Day 2 are giving me enough of a reason to go ahead and say it, at least as a running theory.

 

On 1/10/2023 at 12:12 AM, Porthos said:

 

 

IN

 

(don't ask me for reasons — just have a feeling on this one)

((A tremor in the Force, if one will))

 

This post in XXR's club doesn't actually say I don't have reasons, even if it heavily implies it... I just said "don't ask me for [them]". 

Something something "from a certain point of view" something something.  

 

In fact, I did have reasons... I just didn't feel like going into them at the time.

 

I've been thinking for a while now that the comparisons to Ant-Man and Ant-Man and the Wasp, while understandable, were missing some important pieces of context.  Namely from what I gather, this film is setting up the central conflict of the current Phase of MCU films.  In some ways this might be the most consequential film in the MCU since Endgame.  More arguably the most consequential since Multiverse of Madness.

 

And that matters to at least some types of MCU stans.

 

Now before I get too deep into this post, only so much one can go when starting from the base of Ant-Man films. So when I say "most consequential since X" that will only move the needle so much.  But... moving the needle is in fact, kinda my point.  For quite a while now I've been thinking this might be more similar to how Captain America: Civil War played compared to other Captain America films.  Newcomers might not know this, but Old Timers might recall that there was quite the fight over how to view CA:CW.  A Captain America film?  An Avengers-lite film?  Somewhere in-between.  Turned out, "somewhere in-between" was indeed the answer.

 

But CA:CW absolutely got a boost and I'm not going to be surprised at all if AM3 gets a similar style of boost, if at a smaller percentage.

 

As for why?  Well, it's not so much that "Kang is a big deal" @Verrows in as much as "Kang is supposed to be the Next Big Bad" of the MCU, and MCU fans are smart enough to have picked up on that.  So if Kang is in fact a very important part of this film (and marketing sure as hell is saying he is), more MCU fans are gonna want to check it out to see how the overall story advances than might ordinarily check out an Ant-Man film. 

 

To add to that, I also think it is fair to say that the Marvel fandom has been suffering from a collective case of blue balls ever since their disappointing time with MoM.*"

* Yes, I am twelve years old.

 

To put it another way, I do think there is some sense of... frustration with how much the overall story/meta-plot of the MCU there has been post NWH and any film which meaningfully (claims it is going to) advances the current plot in a way that MoM/films after that perhaps did not is gonna get a boost in interest, IMO.  I may not be an MCU fan, but I recognize the whole "What happens NEXT?  TELL ME WHAT HAPPENS NEXT!?!?!" discourse all. too. well.  *cough*

 

Additionally, it also helps that folks just like Paul Rudd as Ant-Man (as well as Abby Ryder Fortson as Cassie).  Character likability goes a long way when it comes to franchise growth and, again from what I've seen, both Ant-Man and Cassie have become more popular with time (Evangeline Lilly as Wasp, I don't have as great a hang on so I ain't commenting on her popularity).  Not that I want to over sell this factor, mind.  But just "liking the character" helps and I'll keep mentioning it in passing when I think it is appropriate.

 

Now we're still very very veeeeeeeerrrrrrry early in pre-sales.  But I do think:

 

1] Seeing the Next Big Bad on the Big Screen

and

2] (Finally) Getting the meta-plot moving

and

3] Just liking the characters involved 

 

All help sell tickets.

 

Also helps that Jonathan Majors as Kang seems to have instant screen presence and watchability. And, frankly, I don't think it matters at all that the character was (sorta) introduced in Loki over on D+, as Google Is Free and anyone who is curious enough can find out via the innumerable news articles that are gonna come out about the character/links to various wikis/whatever.  And that's presuming the character isn't properly introduced in the film itself (and I very much presume he will be).

 

So all of this added together might help explain this initial relative surge of interest. 

 

Basically it's Fandom Dynamics > Pre-Existing Data concerning film series.

So far at least.  We'll see if it actually continues.

 

Edited January 18, 2023 by Porthos

[Eric is Anxious]

23 hours ago, Eric is Missing said:

Missing Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	91	4712	1.93%

 

Comp

0.968x of Escape Room 2 T-3 (1.16M)

0.674x of Old T-3 (1.01M)

0.752x of Don't Breathe 2 T-3 (726K)

0.385x of Candyman T-3 (733K)

0.450x of Last Night in Soho T-3 (315K)

1.230x of X T-3 (541K)

0.245x of The Black Phone T-3 (734K)

0.096x of Nope T-3 (616K)

0.842x of Beast T-3 (779K)

1.625x of The Invitation T-3 (1.26M)

0.299x of The Woman King T-3 (509K)

Missing Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	36	112	5021	2.23%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 21

 

Comp

0.772x of Escape Room 2 T-2 (927K)

0.589x of Old T-2 (884K)

0.622x of Don't Breathe 2 T-2 (600K)

0.292x of Candyman T-2 (554K)

0.457x of Last Night in Soho T-2 (320K)

1.204x of X T-2 (530K)

0.229x of The Black Phone T-2 (687K)

0.089x of Nope T-2 (571K)

0.778x of Beast T-2 (719K)

1.647x of The Invitation T-2 (1.28M)

0.268x of The Woman King T-2 (455K)

[filmlover]

6 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

18-20m OW for Knock At the Cabin? Can it go higher once it's closer to release date (also factoring in walkups)

I wouldn't be surprised if it opens to $20M, Universal is pushing it like crazy. Hopefully the reviews are decent (or at least not terrible).