The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[TwoMisfits]

Well, my Cinemarks apparently have decided to not go any further on sets for Ant Man - 5ish screens at both (21 and 20 showings).  Set like a regular MCU single hero movie.  

 

Not sure if this will be an indication that expansion may not be as big at this point as normal, but Ant Man did start with a big showing set, so it's not a surprise.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 2/11/2023 at 8:03 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ant-Man 3	T-5	Jax	6	94	59	1,660	16,129	10.29%
		Phx	6	97	47	1,731	15,908	10.88%
		Ral	8	103	85	1,790	13,705	13.06%
	Total		20	294	191	5,181	45,742	11.33%
Cocaine Bear	T-12	Jax	6	19	6	31	2,036	1.52%
		Phx	6	15	3	49	1,980	2.47%
		Ral	8	20	1	50	1,569	3.19%
	Total		20	54	10	130	5,585	2.33%
Fast X	T-96	Jax	5	54	28	40	7,982	0.50%
		Phx	6	20	29	35	3,534	0.99%
		Ral	7	40	31	57	7,207	0.79%
	Total		18	114	88	132	18,723	0.71%
Jesus Revolution	T-12	Jax	5	9	1	26	1,021	2.55%
		Phx	4	5	0	19	622	3.05%
		Ral	7	11	7	76	1,156	6.57%
	Total		16	25	8	121	2,799	4.32%
Jesus Rev (EA)	T-11	Jax	5	11	2	245	1,021	24.00%
		Phx	5	8	0	156	850	18.35%
		Ral	8	12	5	658	1,462	45.01%
	Total		18	31	7	1,059	3,333	31.77%
Scream VI	T-26	Jax	5	22	5	63	2,910	2.16%
		Phx	5	15	17	136	2,792	4.87%
		Ral	8	33	20	109	4,211	2.59%
	Total		18	70	42	308	9,913	3.11%

 

Ant-Man 3 T-5 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.623x (21.42m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - missed

 - Thor 4 - missed

 - Eternals - 2.25x (21.4m)

 - BP2 - missed

 

Jesus Revolution T-12 comps (excluding EA)

 - Left Behind - 1.16x (710k)

 - I Wanna Dance - 1.476x (1.077m)

 

Jesus Revolution + EA comps

 - Downton Abbey + EA - 3.147x (5.66m)

 - Left Behind - 11.35x (6.93m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 14.39x (10.5m)

 

Cocaine Bear T-12 comps

 - Knock at the Cabin - missed

 - Elvis - .556x (1.78m)

 - Nope - .343x (2.18m)

 - Bullet Train - .699x (2.34m)

 - Violent Night - 2.55x (2.8m)

 

Scream VI T-26 comps

 - Nope - missed

 - Knock at the Cabin - 8.1x (11.75m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ant-Man 3	T-1	Jax	6	116	212	2,244	18,004	12.46%
		Phx	7	110	207	2,380	16,698	14.25%
		Ral	8	122	156	2,335	15,495	15.07%
	Total		21	348	575	6,959	50,197	13.86%
Cocaine Bear	T-8	Jax	6	19	3	36	2,164	1.66%
		Phx	6	15	0	61	1,980	3.08%
		Ral	8	20	0	53	1,569	3.38%
	Total		20	54	3	150	5,713	2.63%
Jesus Revolution	T-8	Jax	5	9	0	29	1,021	2.84%
		Phx	4	5	4	25	622	4.02%
		Ral	7	11	6	90	1,156	7.79%
	Total		16	25	10	144	2,799	5.14%
Jesus Rev (EA)	T-7	Jax	5	11	2	253	1,021	24.78%
		Phx	5	8	2	162	850	19.06%
		Ral	8	13	7	677	1,506	44.95%
	Total		18	32	11	1,092	3,377	32.34%
Scream VI	T-22	Jax	5	23	34*	96	3,350	2.87%
		Phx	5	15	48*	184	2,792	6.59%
		Ral	8	33	23*	132	4,211	3.13%
	Total		18	71	105*	412	10,353	3.98%

*Scream new sales since Saturday

 

Ant-Man 3 T-1 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.489x (19.65m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - .38x (13.66m)

 - Thor 4 - .6285x (18.23m)

 - Eternals - 2.04x (19.35m)

 - BP2 - .56x (15.65m)

 

Pacing behind the close comps (BW/Thor/Eternals).  +8.26% from yesterday where the others were +12.6%/+13%/+11.7% respectively.  Valentines could have depressed sales so we'll see if it rebounds today.  Lowering my expectation to around 19m though.

 

Jesus Revolution T-8 comps (excluding EA)

 - Left Behind - .954x (582k)

 - I Wanna Dance - 1.18x (862k)

 

Jesus Revolution + EA comps

 - Downton Abbey + EA - 2.477x (4.46m)

 - Left Behind - 8.185x (5m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 10.13x (7.4m)

 

Cocaine Bear T-8 comps

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.442x (2.09m)

 - Nope - .303x (1.94m)

 - Bullet Train - .617x (2.07m)

 - Violent Night - 1.807x (1.99m)

 

Looking like 2m previews at this point.

 

Scream VI T-22 comps

 - Nope - 1.761x (11.27m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 8.24x (11.95m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 2/10/2023 at 11:19 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-6	Ant-Man 3	3D	22	90	261	2,359	11.06%	$15.71	$4,099.91
		PLF	38	660	2,741	8,430	32.51%	$16.40	$44,963.46
		Standard	79	634	1,600	10,065	15.90%	$12.50	$19,996.19
	Total		139	1,384	4,602	20,854	22.07%	$15.01	$69,059.56

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-6	Ant-Man 3	N	104	1,175	4,081	15,396	26.51%	$15.40	$62,855.48
		Y	35	209	521	5,458	9.55%	$11.91	$6,204.08
	Total		139	1,384	4,602	20,854	22.07%	$15.01	$69,059.56

*All new sales since 1/28 (13 days)

 

T-6 comps

 - DS2 - missed

 - Thor 4 - .697x (20.22m)

 - Top Gun 2 + EA - 1.327x (25.6m)

 - Avatar 2 - 1.544x (26.25m)

 

Gotta wait until Monday for the full slate of CBM comps unfortunately.  I'm in the <20m camp for now though.  

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Ant-Man 3	3D	22	31	342	2,359	14.50%	$15.51	$5,305.12
		PLF	46	168	3,372	9,938	33.93%	$16.34	$55,098.26
		Standard	102	231	2,377	12,698	18.72%	$12.46	$29,608.27
	Total		170	430	6,091	24,995	24.37%	$14.78	$90,011.65

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Ant-Man 3	N	128	355	5,350	18,509	28.90%	$15.20	$81,335.61
		Y	42	75	741	6,486	11.42%	$11.71	$8,676.04
	Total		170	430	6,091	24,995	24.37%	$14.78	$90,011.65

 

T-1 comps

 - Batman + EA - .941x (20.33m)

 - DS2 - missed

 - Thor 4 - .659x (19.1m)

 - Black Panther 2 - .754x (21.12m)

 - Top Gun 2 + EA - 1.124x (21.66m)

 - Avatar 2 - 1.317x (22.39m)

 

Edited February 16, 2023 by katnisscinnaplex
Corrected comps for T-1

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, M37 said:

 

I know its difficult to grasp, but for most people outside of this forum, the most important event on Tuesday was not the review drop of AMWQ 😆

 

Would doubt to quite the same degree, but don't be surprised if we get Thor'd here

Seems bit of a stretch. Thor had meh Mon/Tue but it did increase quite a bit from previous day. Here it almost stayed flat and Monday increase was meh as well. 

 

That said you can never say for sure. Let us see how the day goes today. If it has to recover I am expecting a 20K+ day at MTC1. 

[keysersoze123]

4 hours ago, YM! said:

Is my 90m club happening?

I wont say impossible today but still that is highly unlikely even after meh presales over past week. It did have a humongous start and that helps for sure. 

 

As i posted yesterday 100m could get iffy if it does not recover today. Let us see how the day goes. 

[filmlover]

 

[GOGODanca]

none of the trades have given a budget yet for ant-man

[TwoMisfits]

18 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

none of the trades have given a budget yet for ant-man

 

Yahoo.com has listed it at $200M production budget in its coverage this week (stealing a Chicago Tribune article)...take that for what it's worth...

Edited February 15, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Porthos]

 

5 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, should I bump my "$16M previews are not off the table" posts from the 1st few presale days...or would that be too much?

 

4 hours ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

I was thinking of bumping them — the fact that it got Eternals reception and still isn’t going that low is a good demonstration of how it wasn’t on the table 😛 

 

I believe the phrase of the moment is: "No, but it was directionally correct." 😛 

Edited February 15, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

Still, if we're thinking of bumping up posts....

 

On 1/26/2023 at 4:55 PM, Porthos said:

 

On 1/26/2023 at 4:31 PM, thajdikt said:

So is 100M+ 3-day in the bag?

 

Wellll, while others are much more confident we are still three weeks out, so there is still time for Shenanigans to occur.   Say, MoM style frontloading in pre-sales, unexpectedly bad reviews, Random Unforeseen Shit.

 

Pretty damn likely though, sure. 

 

For instance, 19m x 5.27 does it.  Probably need to get down to 18m or so for sub 100m 3day to happen (18 x 5.5 = 99). 

 

So then the question is:  How likely is 18m-ish previews? Or better yet what would need to happen for 18m-ish in previews?  

 

I personally wouldn't call it a lock.  But at the same time, someone would probably have to give me very favorable odds to bet on a sub-100m 3day OW.

 

 

I'd say this one is looking Pretty Damn Good. 👍

[Eric the IF]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-marvel-studios-ant-man-and-the-wasp-quantumania-targets-top-3-all-time-february-launch-has-a-shot-at-100m/

 

Quote

Weekend Forecast & Location Count Projections

Current projection ranges are for a 168 to 198 percent increase from last weekend’s $47.8 million top ten aggregate.

Film	Studio	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, February 19	Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed)	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd	4-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Monday, February 20
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania	Disney & Marvel Studios	$102,500,000	$102,500,000	~4,300	NEW	$116,400,000	$116,400,000
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish	Universal Pictures & DreamWorks Animation	$5,000,000	$165,300,000	~3,300	-10%	$6,700,000	$167,000,000
Magic Mike’s Last Dance	Warner Bros. Pictures	$4,600,000	$17,500,000	~2,800	-47%	$5,200,000	$18,100,000
Avatar: The Way of Water	Disney & 20th Century Studios	$4,500,000	$654,600,000	~2,800	-38%	$5,700,000	$655,800,000
80 for Brady	Paramount Pictures	$4,300,000	$33,000,000	~3,300	-26%	$5,100,000	$33,800,000
Titanic (25th Anniversary Re-Release)	Paramount Pictures	$3,400,000	$13,000,000	~2,400	-49%	$4,000,000	$13,600,000
Knock at the Cabin	Universal Pictures	$3,300,000	$29,100,000	~2,900	-39%	$3,800,000	$29,700,000
A Man Called Otto	Sony & Columbia Pictures	$2,200,000	$61,200,000	~1,800	-15%	$2,800,000	$61,800,000
Missing	Sony & Screen Gems	$1,700,000	$29,500,000	~1,600	-33%	$2,000,000	$29,700,000
M3GAN	Universal Pictures & Blumhouse	$1,600,000	$93,700,000	~1,700	-34%	$1,900,000	$94,000,000

 

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, M37 said:

Far different movie, but here were the last week of sales for Uncharted in Philly on this same week last year, and the Alpha sales for AMWQ

 

T-6 = 45 / 5125

T-5 = 40 / 5088

T-4 = 40 / 7064 (Super Bowl)

T-3 = 71 (V-Day) / 11,297

T-2 = 131 / 13,131 (V-Day)

T-1 = 198 / ???

T-0 = 492 / ???

 

My target is still a ~350K finish for Alpha, making up some ground today (over 20K), but most of it on Thursday

350K is improbable with just 20K today. We normally go 4x whatever it does today. It could go up slightly more but not that much more. 

Edited February 15, 2023 by keysersoze123

[Tinalera]

35 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

 

I believe the phrase of the moment is: "No, but it was directionally correct." 😛 

Im stealing that quote thank you for my day to day life...

[Tinalera]

Antman Quantumania

Thurs Feb 16 and Fri Feb 17 (Taken Feb 15) (Final count)

Eastern Canada and Week round up.

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Nova Sc	Thurs	4	27	825	5385	6210	0.1328
	fri	4	25	436	7651	8087	0.0539
New B	Thurs	3	12	306	2278	2584	0.1184
	fri	3	14	285	4307	4592	0.0620
St Jon NF	Thurs	1	13	398	2129	2527	0.1574
	fri	1	21	486	3989	4475	0.1086

 

 

weekly Canada roundup

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouve	Thurs	4	29	1414	4448	5862	0.2412
Calgary	Thurs	4	30	735	5992	6327	0.1161
Toronto	Thurs	4	36	2518	7614	10132	0.2485
Quebec	Thurs	4	29	1294	6783	8077	0.1602
Nova Sc	Thurs	4	27	825	5385	6210	0.1328
New B	Thurs	3	12	306	2278	2584	0.1184
St Jon NF	Thurs	1	13	398	2129	2527	0.1574
Thurs	Total	24	176	7490	34629	41719	0.1795
Vancouve	Fri	3	25	1325	3552	4877	0.2716
Calgary	Fri	4	30	640	5935	6575	0.0973
Toronto	Fri	4	37	2248	7288	9536	0.2357
Quebec	Fri	4	23	1078	5219	6297	0.1711
Nova Sc	fri	4	25	436	7651	8087	0.0539
New B	fri	3	14	285	4307	4592	0.0620
St Jon NF	fri	1	21	486	3989	4475	0.1086
Friday	Total	23	175	6498	37941	44439	0.1462

 

 

Final count for Antman. Getting the hang of the counts and hopefully it brings a bigger picture of whats going on up North

[interiorgatordecorator]

is Jesus revolution a big deal for the kind of movie it is?

Edited February 15, 2023 by interiorgatordecorator

[Hiccup23]

Winne-The-Pooh: Blood and Honey Preview (Final Update)

 

February 15th	All showings at 7pm	Tickets are upcharged to $17.23
	Sold	Seats	Percent Sold	Showings	Increase
Madison	82	212	38.68%	2	18	64
Milwaukee	107	636	16.82%	6	19	88
Waukesha	17	486	3.50%	3	1	16
La Crosse	26	127	20.47%	1	10	16
Green Bay	88	423	20.80%	4	40	48
Total	320	1,884	16.99%	16
	$5,513.60

[el sid]

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 874 (21 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 783 (28 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 202 (17 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 99 (12 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 234 (13 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 1.018 (21 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.482 (28 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 4.692.

Up mediocre 18% since Monday.
Comps (all three films counted on Wednesday for Friday): TSS (8M true Friday) had 1.317 sold tickets = x3.56 = 28.5M but Ant-Man has no streaming competition so over 30M,

Morbius (11.6M) had 1.541 sold tickets = x3.04 = 35.3M,

and Eternals (21.2M) had 3.613 sold tickets = x1.3 = 27.6M.
Thor: Love and Thunder (40.5M) had on Thursday = 1 day later 6.946 sold tickets. So with a normal jump around 10% till tomorrow Ant-Man would reach ca. ¾ of the presales of Thor = 30.2M.
The Batman (39.4M) had 5.716 sold tickets on Tuesday and 7.284 sold tickets on Thursday = ca. 6.5k tickets on Wednesday = 28.4M.
And finally SC (20.8M) had 2.672 sold tickets on Tuesday and 3.740 sold tickets on Thurday = ca. 3.2k tickets on Wedndesday = 30.5M for Ant-Man.

Pretty steady from the comps. Still ca. 30-35M true Friday at the moment.

[Eric the IF]

1 hour ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

is Jesus revolution a big deal for the kind of movie it is?

I mean Jesus himself is a pretty big deal. Him doing a revolution would turn my head.

[Eric the IF]

Quorum Updates

Scream VI T-23: 55.71% Awareness, 6.30 Interest

Inside T-30: 20.38%, 5.55

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves T-44: 33.09%, 5.24

Air T-49: 19.75%, 5.17

Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret T-72: 18.38%, 4.66

Fast X T-93: 43.21%, 6.15

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts T-114: 38.5%, 6.07

The Flash T-121: 38.03%, 5.66

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania T-2: 51.32% Awareness, 6.20 Interest

Final Awareness: 18% chance of 60M, 9% chance of 90M

Final Interest: 50% chance of 60M, 44% chance of 70M, 39% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 90M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 60M

 

Jesus Revolution T-9: 19.22% Awareness, 4.85 Interest

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 20% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 0% chance of 5M

Original - Low Interest: 18% chance of 5M, 0% chance of 10M

[cooldude97]

7 minutes ago, Eric the Conqueror said:

Quorum Updates

Scream VI T-23: 55.71% Awareness, 6.30 Interest

Inside T-30: 20.38%, 5.55

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves T-44: 33.09%, 5.24

Air T-49: 19.75%, 5.17

Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret T-72: 18.38%, 4.66

Fast X T-93: 43.21%, 6.15

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts T-114: 38.5%, 6.07

The Flash T-121: 38.03%, 5.66

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania T-2: 51.32% Awareness, 6.20 Interest

Final Awareness: 18% chance of 60M, 9% chance of 90M

Final Interest: 50% chance of 60M, 44% chance of 70M, 39% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 90M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 60M

 

Jesus Revolution T-9: 19.22% Awareness, 4.85 Interest

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 20% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 0% chance of 5M

Original - Low Interest: 18% chance of 5M, 0% chance of 10M

can't tell, are those numbers good for flash and transformers?