The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

5 hours ago, datpepper said:

If there's Star Wars fans in here, you may be happy about what might be coming on April 28...

 

36 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

Return of the Jedi re-release april 28 dolby 

 

https://professional.dolby.com/cinema/theatrical-releases/

 

 

HMMMMMMM......     

 

Spoiler

Almost certainly not, aksually.  But I wasn't kidding when I said there ain't any AMCs near me. 👍

 

 

[Joyous Legion]

10 hours ago, Eric Creed said:

Speaking of personal life, I recently got a job at my local Target, but it's an overnight position. This means my usual time of tracking will be disrupted from working. So I will have some days where I will track in the afternoon and not at night. I don't think it will matter too much, especially near the end, but it will lead to some weird disruptions probably. But that's because getting paid is more important than tracking Philly sales. Just want to make sure people are aware.

Eyy, welcome to the graveyard life

[charlie Jatinder]

10 hours ago, Eric Creed said:

But that's because getting paid is more important than tracking Philly sales.

Is it though?

[Eric is Quiet]

9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Is it though?

Charlie, go to bed.

[misterpepp]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

HMMMMMMM......     

 

  Hide contents

Almost certainly not, aksually.  But I wasn't kidding when I said there ain't any AMCs near me. 👍

 

No confirmation it's Dolby-only though. Could be full wide like the Empire 40th re-release in Sep 2020. Or maybe it is PLF-specific like Rogue One. We'll see.

[Eric is Quiet]

On 2/26/2023 at 11:56 PM, Eric Creed said:

Creed III Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	68	1270	14223	8.93%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 278

 

Comp - T-4

0.906x of F9 (6.44M)

0.961x of No Time to Die (6.06M)

1.422x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (6.4M)

1.084x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (6.5M)

1.716x of Nope (10.98M)

0.912x of Black Adam (6.93M)

0.127x of Black Panther 2 (3.57M)

0.383x of Avatar 2 (6.52M)

Creed III Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	68	1663	14223	11.69%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 393

 

Comp - T-3

1.027x of F9 (7.29M)

1.067x of No Time to Die (6.72M)

1.587x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (7.14M)

1.271x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (7.63M)

1.760x of Nope (11.26M)

1.039x of Black Adam (7.89M)

0.156x of Black Panther 2 (4.36M)

0.451x of Avatar 2 (7.67M)

[misterpepp]

On 2/21/2023 at 11:35 AM, datpepper said:

65 and John Wick 4 tix seem like they’ll be on sale March 1.

 

The Lost King also goes on sale on this date.

[Eric is Quiet]

Operation Fortune: Ruse de Gurre Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	17	23	1905	1.21%

 

Comp - T-3

0.153x of Snake Eyes (215K)

0.639x of The 355 (224K)

0.120x of Moonfall (84K)

0.255x of Ambulance (179K)

0.035x of Bullet Train (160K)

0.149x of Violent Night (164K)

0.287x of Plane (180K)

[Eric is Quiet]

On 2/27/2023 at 12:03 AM, Eric Creed said:

Scream VI Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	748	8200	9.12%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 27

 

Comp - T-11

1.989x of Halloween Kills (9.65M)

2.239x of Scream (7.84M)

2.083x of Nope (13.33M)

1.105x of Halloween Ends (5.97M)

Scream VI Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	781	8200	9.52%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 33

 

Comp - T-10

1.743x of Halloween Kills (8.45M)

2.061x of Scream (7.21M)

1.997x of Nope (12.78M)

1.095x of Halloween Ends (5.91M)

[Eric is Quiet]

On 2/27/2023 at 12:17 AM, Eric Creed said:

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-18 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	84	247	17155	1.44%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 22

 

Comp - T-18

0.157x of Black Widow (2.07M)

1.160x of The Suicide Squad (4.75M)

0.203x of Eternals (1.92M)

0.607x of Sonic 2 (3.79M)

0.167x of Jurassic World: Dominion (3.01M)

0.064x of Ant-Man 3 (1.12M)

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	84	269	17155	1.57%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 22

 

Comp - T-17

0.165x of Black Widow (2.18M)

1.212x of The Suicide Squad (4.97M)

0.527x of Shang-Chi (4.64M)

0.212x of Eternals (2.01M)

1.067x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (4.8M)

0.712x of Morbius (4.06M)

0.604x of Sonic 2 (3.78M)

0.177x of Jurassic World: Dominion (3.19M)

0.069x of Ant-Man 3 (1.2M)

[poweranimals]

How this movie is tracking below Morbius is beyond insane,

[BadOlCatSylvester]

24 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

How this movie is tracking below Morbius is beyond insane,

The Dark Phoenix effect. It's hard to give a shit when you know a reboot is coming. I also imagine the current superhero fatigue won't help either.

[poweranimals]

1 minute ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

The Dark Phoenix effect. It's hard to give a shit when you know a reboot is coming. I also imagine the current superhero fatigue won't help either.

The Dark Phoenix also came off the heels of Apocalypse which just about everyone hated.

[lorddemaxus]

48 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

The Dark Phoenix effect. It's hard to give a shit when you know a reboot is coming. I also imagine the current superhero fatigue won't help either.

I don't think most people care or know about a reboot. Dark Phoenix bombed because Apocalypse sucked and this is going to bomb because no one really cared about the first Shazam and WB hasn't made this one look interesting. 

[Porthos]

Quick and Dirty Creed III Greater Sacramento Report [T-3]:

1099/13169 (8.35% sold) [+184 tickets]

Sellouts: 1 (+0)

 

93.37% of GBA              at T-3 (4.20m)

67.42% of Sonic 2         at T-3 (4.21m)

14.17% of TGM              at T-3 (2.73m)

18.13% of JWD              at T-3 (3.26m)

90.04% of Nope            at T-3 (5.78m)

50.60% of Black Adam at T-3 (3.85m)

 

---

 

I dislike using anything before GBA, but for what it's worth, NTTD = 3.62m.  I've been tooling around with a Sacto pre-ATP hike adjustment for the 2021 movies I tracked before GBA and while I'm not ready to roll it out quite yet (still want to fine tune it, cross check it against other genres, that sort of thing), if I hike it upwards roughly by an ad-hoc of 12%, I get NTTD = 4.05m, which is roughly in line with the GBA and Sonic 2 comps.

 

Nope is an outlier here (and it's trending downward locally) so don't take to much from it.  Other comps are semi-stable though (aside from the high grossing/more frontloaded pics like TGM and JWD). 

 

The one note of caution (well two notes) is that this will be a 7pm preview start time so don't know how that'll play havoc with comps with films that had 2pm/3pm/4pm start times.  Maybe not much, but at this level of sales it can still matter.

 

Also disparate genres here which means far more adults than many of the films I have listed above. 

 

Still, looking pretty good for Creed III, IMO.

Edited March 1, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 2/27/2023 at 1:24 AM, Porthos said:

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	78	9098	9860	762	7.73%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

29

 

T-11 Comp

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Morbius	96.21		47	792		0/127	17950/18742	4.23%		3477	21.92%		5.48m
Sonic 2	124.51		36	612		0/80	11640/12252	5.00%		3951	19.29%		7.78m
Nope	188.15		21	405		0/86	13286/13691	2.96%		3822	19.94%		12.04m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      124/2624  [4.73% sold]
Matinee:      50/687  [7.28% | 6.56% of all tickets sold]
3D:           342/3148  [10.86% | 44.88% of all tickets sold]

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	77	8931	9739	808	8.30%

 

Total Showings Removed Today	1
Total Seats Removed Today	121
Total Seats Sold Today	46

 

T-10 Comp

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Morbius	94.17		66	858		0/127	17884/18742	4.58%		3477	23.24%		5.37m
Sonic 2	124.69		36	648		0/89	11792/12440	5.21%		3951	20.45%		7.79m
Nope	171.91		65	470		0/86	13221/13691	3.43%		3822	21.14%		11.00m
BA	72.08		47	1121		0/148	21302/22423	5.00%		4494	17.98%		5.48m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       143/2507  [5.70% sold]
Matinee:       54/687  [7.86% | 6.68% of all tickets sold]
3D:            365/3150  [11.59% | 45.17% of all tickets sold]

[M37]

6 hours ago, datpepper said:

 

No confirmation it's Dolby-only though. Could be full wide like the Empire 40th re-release in Sep 2020. Or maybe it is PLF-specific like Rogue One. We'll see.

I had always presumed Avatwo would get a one week IMAX re-release/final push in late April, in that gap between Mario and GOTG3 ... but Disney doing two re-release/PLF pushes at once makes less sense, no? Though it seems to mostly be a promo/tie-in to release of Jedi Survivor, so maybe its a just Dolby run, like RO's limited IMAX-only run being a promo/tie-in for Andor

 

For the record, from a business/marketing perspective, I completely understand what Disney is going for with these little re-releases, but also feels like it cheapens the concept to use their existence as free advertising/extended commercials for some other commercial property

[filmlover]

With Shazam 2 looking more and more like an inevitable underperformer and the fact it's opening SXSW weeks before it comes out, I wonder if Dungeons & Dragons will defy the odds and at least avoid being as big of a flop as everyone is expecting if it's able to receive positive buzz, since it's PG-13 vs. the R-rated Scream and John Wick.

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, JustLurking said:

Are you comping DS against thursday previews despite it being a friday opener? Not sure how those will work out.

Yep for the most part.  MHA didn't have previews either so that is OD as well.  With how frontloaded anime is generally (and with only one screen in most theaters) I'm expecting it to be pretty close by Friday. 

[Sckathian]

Shazam is suffering from WB basically deciding not to market it and save itself some cash. Not seen anything about the movie whereas the first got a big push.