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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
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Posted by XXRDJisDoctorDoom,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
On 2/24/2023 at 9:27 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie TC Shows Change Standard Last PSA PLF IMAX 3D
Ant-Man 3 3,478 112,354 -29.08% 85,507 555.45 26,847 3,924 15,887
Cocaine Bear 3,100 63,893   62,210   1,683 0 0
Jesus Revolution 2,277 39,652   39,570   82 0 0
Magic Mike 3 2,487 25,088 -26.87% 25,046 158.36 42 0 0
Puss in Boots 2 2,449 22,707 -16.90% 22,629 195.33 78 0 48
80 for Brady 2,141 20,770 -35.71% 20,734 116.15 36 0 0
Avatar 2 2,149 19,120 -13.42% 5,365 296.63 13,755 9 13,734
Knock at the Cabin 1,877 17,510 -38.59% 17,486 139.34 24 0 0
Marlowe 2,050 10,170 -61.42% 10,151 68.72 19 0 0
Emily 536 6,596   6,587   9 0 0
A Man Called Otto 853 6,191 -37.49% 6,166 161.60 25 0 0
Missing 808 6,020 -34.68% 6,020 189.64 0 0 0
M3GAN 673 4,598 -45.35% 4,598 190.21 0 0 0
Titanic 25 Year 819 4,239 -72.27% 4,230 157.68 9 0 0

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 2/24 Weekend


OW Showtimes Comps

Jesus Revolution EA - 2,926 (1,890)

Jesus Revolution - 39,652 (2,277 TC)

 - Respect - 40,541 (2,876)

 - Massive Talent - 39,439 (2,708)

 - House of Gucci - 38,900 (2,933)

Cocaine Bear - 63,893 (3,100 TC)

 - Snake Eyes - 64,832 (3,008)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 65,207 (3,216)

 - Smile - 60,493 (3,169)

Emily - 6,596 (536 TC)

 - The Contractor - 6,356 (478)

 - Emily the Criminal - 6,665 (454)

 - On the Come Up - 6,680 (519)

 

T-1 Week Showtimes Comps

Creed III (2/27 IMAX) - 47 (47 TC)

Creed III (EA) - 1,188 (945 TC)

 - Top Gun Tues EA - 1,008 (942)

 - Sing EA - 1,100 (1,100)

 - Puss in Boots EA - 992 (992)

Creed III - 48,260 (2,518 TC)

 - Dune - 45,388 (2,771)

 - Uncharted - 50,667 (2,672)

 - Nope - 52,246 (2,594)

Demon Slayer - 13,320 (1,513 TC)

 - Cry Macho - 12,371 (1,305)

 - Slime - 13,804 (1,302)

 - Studio 666 - 13,939 (1,254)

Operation Fortune - 15,881 (1,272 TC)

 - CopShop - 16,693 (1,519)

 - Bones and All - 15,213 (1,310)

 - Devotion - 15,281 (1,334)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Scream VI - 6,937 (2,271 TC)

 - Halloween Ends - 7,934 (2,126)

 - Uncharted - 7,459 (2,177)

 - Dragon Ball Super - 7,254 (2,180)

Champions - 1,845 (1,276 TC)

 - X - 1,829 (1,297)

 - The 355 - 1,846 (1,191)

 

T-3 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Shazam 2 - 10,850 (2,193 TC)

 - Black Adam - 10,710 (1,868)

 - Eternals - 8,959 (2,267)

 

T-12 Week Previews Showtimes

Fast X - 13,630 (2,237 TC)

Movie TC Shows Change Standard Last PSA PLF IMAX 3D
Creed III 3,366 92,873   79,175   13,698 4,696 0
Ant-Man 3 3,238 59,709 -46.86% 54,037 284.50 5,672 18 4,603
Cocaine Bear 3,139 47,283 -15.36% 47,035 364.06 248 0 0
Jesus Revolution 2,346 31,690 -10.51% 31,616 400.54 74 0 0
Operation Fortune 2,116 28,946   28,891   55 0 0
Demon Slayer 1,703 22,604   22,543   61 0 0
Puss in Boots 2 2,248 18,813 -17.15% 18,784 181.41 29 0 12
Avatar 2 1,986 17,171 -10.19% 4,249 254.20 12,922 3 12,919
80 for Brady 1,316 10,393 -49.96% 10,379 91.55 14 0 0
Magic Mike 3 1,444 9,601 -61.73% 9,601 113.86 0 0 0
A Man Called Otto 1,203 7,132 15.20% 7,112 137.55 20 0 0
Knock at the Cabin 1,074 6,252 -64.29% 6,243 106.85 9 0 0
Missing 540 3,842 -36.18% 3,842 169.24 0 0 0
Children of the Corn 572 3,783   3,783   0 0 0
Emily 520 2,552 -57.07% 2,546 66.53 6 0 0
M3GAN 393 2,496 -45.72% 2,496 124.45 0 0 0

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 3/3 Weekend


OW Showtimes Comps

Creed III - 92,873 (3,366 TC)

 - Bullet Train - 94,719 (3,499)

 - Jungle Cruise - 94,654 (3,334)

 - Halloween Kills - 92,661 (3,143)

Demon Slayer - 22,604 (1,703 TC)

 - MHA - 23,963 (1,504)

 - Slime - 16,344 (1,422)

 - Infinity Pool - 21,605 (1,670)

Other anime for context

 - DBZ - 52,371 (2,856)

 - One Piece - 52,470 (2,227)

 - JJK - 41,623 (2,228)

Operation Fortune - 28,946 (2,116 TC)

 - King's Man - 29,915 (2,800)

 - Bones and All - 28,849 (2,409)

 - Devotion - 30,341 (2,500)

 - Father Stu - 27,690 (2,358)

 

T-1 Week Showtimes Comps

Scream VI - 47,509 (2,548 TC)

 - Creed III - 48,260 (2,518)

 - Uncharted - 50,667 (2,672)

 - Dragon Ball Super - 47,052 (2,460)

 - Dune - 45,388 (2,771)

65 - 26,446 (1,843 TC)

 - Ambulance - 27,883 (2,198)

 - Firestarter - 25,486 (1,830)

 - Smile - 27,557 (2,196)

 - Amsterdam - 25,658 (1,878)

Champions - 19,923 (1,771 TC)

 - House of Gucci - 19,223 (1,835)

 - Magic Mike 3 - 19,139 (1,224)

 - Blacklight - 19,740 (1,627)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Shazam 2 - 11,334 (2,346 TC)

 - Morbius - 10,885 (2,409)

 - No Time to Die - 10,513 (2,492)

 - Venom 2 - 13,768 (2,381)

 - FB3 - 11,617 (2,405)

 

 

T-3 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

John Wick 4 - 7,973 (1,938 TC)

 - NTTD - 7,191 (1,520)

 - Nope - 8,197 (2,086)

 - Eternals - 8,959 (2,267)

 

T-11 Week Previews Showtimes

Fast X - 13,819 (2,248 TC)

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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
On 3/2/2023 at 9:10 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
65 T-7 Jax 4 20 6 7 1,784 0.39%
    Phx 5 11 20 20 1,382 1.45%
    Ral 6 20 23 23 2,197 1.05%
  Total   15 51 49 50 5,363 0.93%
Champions T-7 Jax 4 6 0 1 649 0.15%
    Phx 5 8 0 1 674 0.15%
    Ral 6 11 0 0 1,083 0.00%
  Total   15 25 0 2 2,406 0.08%
Demon Slayer 2 T-1 Jax 5 25 125 655 3,324 19.71%
(OD)   Phx 5 31 85 744 4,957 15.01%
    Ral 7 31 98 783 3,372 23.22%
  Total   17 87 308 2,182 11,653 18.72%
John Wick 4 T-21 Jax 6 42 75 113 7,238 1.56%
    Phx 5 25 99 136 5,468 2.49%
    Ral 7 33 58 101 4,451 2.27%
  Total   18 100 232 350 17,157 2.04%
Scream VI T-7 Jax 5 31 13 233 4,222 5.52%
    Phx 6 24 24 390 4,824 8.08%
    Ral 8 33 3 213 4,211 5.06%
  Total   19 88 40 836 13,257 6.31%
Shazam 2 T-14 Jax 5 56 10 127 9,734 1.30%
    Phx 6 29 2 129 6,134 2.10%
    Ral 8 53 14 148 7,666 1.93%
  Total   19 138 26 404 23,534 1.72%

 

Demon Slayer 2 T-1 comps

 - MHA (OD) - 1.632x (4.71m)

 - JJK 0 - 1.454x (4.19m)

 - Dragon Ball Z - 1.503x (6.47m)

 - Slime - 18.65x (4.66m)

 - One Piece - 2.871x (4.87m)

 

3-day pace is well ahead of the three similar comps (at +35% while the others are all at +27.5%) so we could get close to 5m if that keeps up today.

 

Scream VI T-7 comps

 - Nope - 1.589x (10.17m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 7.81x (11.33m)

 - Suicide Squad - 2.111x (8.66m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.449x (6.01m)

 - Halloween Kills - 1.935x (9.39m)

 - Halloween Ends - 1.858x (10.03m)

 

65 T-7 comps

 - Beast - 1.11x (1.03m)

 - Last Night in Soho - 1.25x (938k)

 - Missing - 2.083x (1.58m)

 - Old - 1.389x (2.08m)

 

Shazam 2 T-14 comps

 - Sonic 2 - 1.259x (6.27m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .854x (5.12m)

 - No Time to Die - 1.05x (5.46m)

 - F9 - .709x (5.03m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.18x (4.92m)

 - Shang-Chi - .635x (5.59m)

 

John Wick 4 T-21 comps

 - Batman - .223x (3.93m)

 - Suicide Squad - 2.5x (10.25m)

 - F9 - 1.287x (9.14m)

 - Shazam 2 - 1.264x

 - Nope - 1.477x (9.45m)

 

Just throwing in a few things since options are limited.  Will adjust as we get closer

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
65 T-6 Jax 4 17 4 11 1,724 0.64%
    Phx 5 11 2 22 1,382 1.59%
    Ral 7 23 13 36 2,704 1.33%
  Total   16 51 19 69 5,810 1.19%
Champions T-6 Jax 4 6 -1 0 649 0.00%
    Phx 5 8 0 1 674 0.15%
    Ral 6 11 1 1 1,083 0.09%
  Total   15 25 0 2 2,406 0.08%
Demon Slayer 2 T-0 Jax 5 27 165 820 3,429 23.91%
(OD)   Phx 5 31 199 943 4,957 19.02%
    Ral 7 31 165 948 3,372 28.11%
  Total   17 89 529 2,711 11,758 23.06%
John Wick 4 T-20 Jax 6 42 13 126 7,238 1.74%
    Phx 5 25 24 160 5,468 2.93%
    Ral 8 33 43 144 4,451 3.24%
  Total   19 100 80 430 17,157 2.51%
Scream VI T-6 Jax 5 31 13 246 4,222 5.83%
    Phx 6 24 21 411 4,824 8.52%
    Ral 8 33 24 237 4,211 5.63%
  Total   19 88 58 894 13,257 6.74%
Shazam 2 T-13 Jax 5 56 6 133 9,734 1.37%
    Phx 6 29 2 131 6,134 2.14%
    Ral 8 53 4 152 7,666 1.98%
  Total   19 138 12 416 23,534 1.77%

 

Demon Slayer 2 T-0 comps

 - MHA (OD) - 1.669x (4.82m)

 - JJK 0 - 1.552x (4.47m)

 - Dragon Ball Z - 1.476x (6.35m)

 - Slime - 19.93x (4.98m)

 - One Piece - 2.918x (4.95m)

 

Not gonna add any generic comps since anime is its own thing and I've listed all of those.  Another great day of sales has me convinced it'll be close to 5m.  Since it's opening day and we'll get an actual number, I'll go with 4.77m

 

Scream VI T-6 comps

 - Nope - 1.541x (9.86m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 6.98x (10.13m)

 - Suicide Squad - 2.1x (8.62m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - Halloween Kills - missed

 - Halloween Ends - missed

 

65 T-6 comps

 - Beast - 1.408x (1.3m)

 - Last Night in Soho - missed

 - Missing - 2.379x (1.81m)

 - Old - 1.408x (2.11m)

 

Shazam 2 T-13 comps

 - Sonic 2 - 1.156x (5.75m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .704x (4.22m)

 - No Time to Die - 1.01x (5.28m)

 - F9 - .65x (4.62m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - Shang-Chi - .585x (5.15m)

 

John Wick 4 T-20 comps

 - Batman - .233x (4.1m)

 - Suicide Squad - 2.606x (10.68m)

 - F9 - 1.265x (8.98m)

 - Shazam 2 - missed

 - Nope - 1.77x (11.33m)

 

Just throwing in a few things since options are limited.  Will adjust as we get closer

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interiorgatordecorator Box Office Gold

interiorgatordecorator

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

That DS PSA is gonna be lit

 

how do they warn people about the fact that theyre about to walk into an hour of content theyve already seen before getting to the new episode?

Edited by interiorgatordecorator
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Issac Newton Global Phenomenon

Issac Newton

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

how do they warn people that theyre about to walk in into an hour of content theyve already seen before getting to the new episode?

It's viewer problem. They didn't do any research before watching. Likely I am seeing a another Broly case.

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JustLurking Box Office Gold

JustLurking

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

how do they warn people about the fact that theyre about to walk into an hour of content theyve already seen before getting to the new episode?

They didn't even edit out the opening/ending credits at the end of each episode.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, efialtes76 said:

$5.45M for Creed 3 according to Deadline.

 

14 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Creed III Greater Sacramento Report [FINAL] [6:25-6:40]:

3492/14116 (24.74% sold) [+1213 tickets/+348 seats]

Sellouts: 1 (+0)

 

93.44% of NTTD            at T-0 (5.79m)

115.10% of GBA              at T-0 (5.18m)

88.38% of Sonic 2         at T-0 (5.52m)

30.43% of TGM              at T-0 (5.86m)

31.84% of JWD              at T-0 (5.73m)

91.37% of Nope             at T-0 (5.85m)

77.70% of Black Adam  at T-0 (5.91m)

 

Just a great day.  I am taking this sample much later than all of the above, and this will have far fewer showings than the ones listed.  On the other hand, should be fewer childrens tickets than for most of the above, except for NTTD and Nope.  NTTD and TMG should be the best comps, especially since they both had early access showtimes to boost the ATP. So let's go with 5.9m +/- .3m.

 

Just a remarkable pre-sale run.

 

For a Quick and Dirty?  Absolutely consider this a win.  👍

 

(especially since I sampled it far later in the night than all of the above)

 

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

For a Quick and Dirty?  Absolutely consider this a win.  👍

 

(especially since I sampled it far later in the night than all of the above)

 

Hmm...it's outside the range. I guess we can call it "directionally correct" at best. 

Spoiler

THE EMPEROR HAS FALLEN!

Star Wars GIF

 

Edited by Menor Reborn
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Hmm...it's outside the range. I guess we can call it "directionally correct" at best. 

  Hide contents

THE EMPEROR HAS FALLEN!

Star Wars GIF

 

 

"Quick and Dirty's" don't care about such meager things like "exact accuracy" and "ranges". j1aUlyv.gif

 

Spoiler

FNbLXfSXsAUvuVz.jpg:large

 

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Eric Prime Global Phenomenon

Eric Prime

Posted
Posted

Quorum Updates

Inside T-15: 17.71% Awareness, 5.38 Interest

Moving On T-15: 20.36%, 5.43

Shazam! Fury of the Gods T-15: 50.8%, 5.63

A Good Person T-29: 19.06%, 5.26

The Super Mario Bros. Movie T-34: 51.95%, 6.01

The Boogeyman T-92: 31.28%, 6.04

 

Creed III T-1: 59.06% Awareness, 6.17 Interest

Final Awareness: 75% chance of 30M, 50% chance of 40M, 33% chance of 50M, 25% chance of 60M

Final Interest: 89% chance of 30M, 74% chance of 40M, 58% chance of 50M, 53% chance of 60M

 

Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret T-57: 17.8% Awareness, 4.67 Interest

T-60 Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

T-60 Interest: 37% chance of 10M

Known IP Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Known IP Interest: 0% chance of 10M

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 T-64: 54.57% Awareness, 6.5 Interest

T-60 Awareness: 89% chance of 100M

T-60 Interest: 87% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 100M

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DAJK Global Phenomenon

DAJK

Posted
Posted
54 minutes ago, Eric Creed said:

Quorum Updates

Inside T-15: 17.71% Awareness, 5.38 Interest

Moving On T-15: 20.36%, 5.43

Shazam! Fury of the Gods T-15: 50.8%, 5.63

A Good Person T-29: 19.06%, 5.26

The Super Mario Bros. Movie T-34: 51.95%, 6.01

The Boogeyman T-92: 31.28%, 6.04

 

Creed III T-1: 59.06% Awareness, 6.17 Interest

Final Awareness: 75% chance of 30M, 50% chance of 40M, 33% chance of 50M, 25% chance of 60M

Final Interest: 89% chance of 30M, 74% chance of 40M, 58% chance of 50M, 53% chance of 60M

 

Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret T-57: 17.8% Awareness, 4.67 Interest

T-60 Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

T-60 Interest: 37% chance of 10M

Known IP Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Known IP Interest: 0% chance of 10M

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 T-64: 54.57% Awareness, 6.5 Interest

T-60 Awareness: 89% chance of 100M

T-60 Interest: 87% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 100

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 100M

Not box office related but if Are You There God It's Me Margaret is anywhere near as good as The Edge of Seventeen, it's going to be one of my favourites of the year.

 

I know it's pretty well-regarded among those who have seen it, but that movie is SLEPT ON. It's probably up there in my "top 3 'teen' movies that influenced my life in that era".

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

Posted
Posted

Don't think it was posted

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 3/3/23)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
3/10/2023 65 $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 -16% $18,000,000 – $38,000,000 -34% Sony / Columbia Pictures
3/10/2023 Champions $4,000,000 – $7,000,000 -8% $14,000,000 – $28,000,000 -20% Focus Features
3/10/2023 Scream VI $35,000,000 – $42,000,000 +9% $75,000,000 – $97,000,000   Paramount Pictures
3/17/2023 Inside         Focus Features
3/17/2023 Moving On         Roadside Attractions
3/17/2023 Shazam! Fury of the Gods $37,000,000 – $46,000,000   $90,000,000 – $120,000,000   Warner Bros. Pictures
3/24/2023 John Wick: Chapter 4 $49,000,000 – $64,000,000 +10% $130,000,000 – $182,000,000 +5% Lionsgate
3/31/2023 Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves $23,000,000 – $30,000,000   $52,000,000 – $90,000,000   Paramount Pictures

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-can-dungeons-dragons-honor-among-thieves-reverse-the-franchises-prior-big-screen-missteps/

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