The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[el sid]

The Covenant had today 77 sold tickets for Thursday (with showtimes in 5 theaters) and 98 sold tickets for Friday (with showtimes in 6 theaters).

Comps (all films counted on Thursday for Thursday respectively Friday: Midway (925k from previews/17.9M OW) had 300 and 361 sold tickets,
Cop Shop (950k OD/2.3M) had 49 and 37 sold tickets
and 65 (1.22M/12.3M) had 300 and 292 sold tickets.
The Protégé (2.9M OW) had 91 sold tickets on Thursday for Friday.

Points to 200-300k from previews and 4-5M OW.

[Gavin Feng]

 

 

[Maggie]

1 minute ago, Gavin Feng said:

 

 

Indy is so low. The people polled must have been 14 years old

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Evil Dead Rises MTC1

Previews - 21642/141104 358689.74 930 shows

Friday - 23768/411930 378470.06 2731 shows

 

Still show count for thursday is low considering the sales but friday is good. I expect another growth today in shows and based on growth pattern I am feeling good about 3m previews and 20m+ OW. 

Evil Dead Rises MTC1

Previews - 28656/145283 465888.90 968 shows

Friday - 32615/416738 510840.83 2761 shows

 

not much change in show count but good growth over past day. I am feeling good about 3m+ previews with really good walkups. May be OW close to 25m can happen. 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

22 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

 

 

Personal opinions on the value of Fandango’s hype lists aside, why is Guardians not on here when that comes out May 5th? Do they consider that spring or did it just not get voted enough?

[thajdikt]

Just now, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Personal opinions on the value of Fandango’s hype lists aside, why is Guardians not on here when that comes out May 5th? Do they consider that spring or did it just not get voted enough?

It´s from Fast X and onwards according to Erik Davis

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

2 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

It´s from Fast X and onwards according to Erik Davis

 
I see. Ty for letting me know.

 

also surprised No Hard Feelings isn’t on here cause people went nuts for that trailer, but Gran Turismo and Meg are.

[filmlover]

28 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Indy is so low. The people polled must have been 14 years old

These polls always end up being very hit and miss. The only especially shocking omission (aside from Guardians but it seems that was disqualified being the kickoff movie of the summer) is Blue Beetle IMO. And I guess Asteroid City making it while none of the studio comedies (Strays, No Hard Feelings, Joy Ride) showed up but that makes sense since Wes has a big online following + the cast is arguably his most starry yet.

Edited April 20, 2023 by filmlover

[DisposedData]

I think people here are overestimating Indiana Jones.

[Maggie]

2 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

I think people here are overestimating Indiana Jones.

...and underestimating The Flash. For not being a sequel, it came number 2 on the poll. extremely well placed

[Mickiland16]

30 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Indy is so low. The people polled must have been 14 years old

Didn't the poll at the end of 2022 has the same methodology though? Indy ranked 5th there...if any this suggest that the marketing maybe didn't hit after the first teaser but idk. 

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

I think people here are overestimating Indiana Jones.

It´s not really about that, it´s just that even if the movie does underperform and made something like 250-300M [which is probably something close to worst case scenario], it will still be higher than something like Transformers or Fast X with both franchises coming from underperformed movies.

 

But these lists aren´t realible anyway, every year most of the biggest grosses are from movies low on the list.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

4 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

It´s not really about that, it´s just that even if the movie does underperform and made something like 250-300M [which is probably something close to worst case scenario], it will still be higher than something like Transformers or Fast X with both franchises coming from underperformed movies.

 

But these lists aren´t realible anyway, every year most of the biggest grosses are from movies low on the list.

I was thinking something similar. Last year Top Gun and Avatar were low on the most anticipated lists, and this year Mario barely cracked the top 10.

[Mickiland16]

7 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

It´s not really about that, it´s just that even if the movie does underperform and made something like 250-300M [which is probably something close to worst case scenario], it will still be higher than something like Transformers or Fast X with both franchises coming from underperformed movies.

 

But these lists aren´t realible anyway, every year most of the biggest grosses are from movies low on the list.

Last year top five were Doctor Strange, Thor, Jurassic World Dominion, Top Gun and Minions, it was right in the end. Not saying it's going to be 100% accuratable since I also expect Indy to be higher but I won't say it's totally unreliable...maybe Transformers is the one being underestimating...

Edit: I'm talking about the summer poll.

Edited April 20, 2023 by Mickiland16

[Maggie]

I think last year's list was reliable. for opening weekends they kinda got it right. They wouldn't know how a movie would perform after that....legs need quality

 

 

1. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
2. Thor: Love and Thunder
3. Jurassic World Dominion
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Minions: The Rise of Gru
6. Lightyear
7. Elvis
8. Nope
9. Bullet Train
10. Downton Abbey: A New Era

[DisposedData]

I think what's more interesting is the fact the Elemental is nowhere to be seen.

[John Marston]

9 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

I think people here are overestimating Indiana Jones.

 

 

Nah these polls just mean shit. Indy 5 will have a 140-150m opening weekend and legs  will determine total 

[Maggie]

The Flash - number two most anticipated + awesome quality movie = SUMMER WINNER

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, Maggie said:

I think last year's list was reliable. for opening weekends they kinda got it right. They wouldn't know how a movie would perform after that....legs need quality

 

 

1. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
2. Thor: Love and Thunder
3. Jurassic World Dominion
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Minions: The Rise of Gru
6. Lightyear
7. Elvis
8. Nope
9. Bullet Train
10. Downton Abbey: A New Era

To be fair, last summer was still a bit on the light side in terms of number of movies the studios put out. Downton Abbey 2 ended up finishing at a very distant #13 (behind DC League of Super-Pets, Where the Crawdads Sing, and The Black Phone).

[ThomasNicole]

10 minutes ago, Mickiland16 said:

Last year top five were Doctor Strange, Thor, Jurassic World Dominion, Top Gun and Minions, it was right in the end. Not saying it's going to be 100% accuratable since I also expect Indy to be higher but I won't say it's totally unreliable...maybe Transformers is the one being underestimating...

Edit: I'm talking about the summer poll.

 

10 minutes ago, Maggie said:

I think last year's list was reliable. for opening weekends they kinda got it right. They wouldn't know how a movie would perform after that....legs need quality

 

 

1. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
2. Thor: Love and Thunder
3. Jurassic World Dominion
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Minions: The Rise of Gru
6. Lightyear
7. Elvis
8. Nope
9. Bullet Train
10. Downton Abbey: A New Era

That´s reasonable, but last summer pretty much only have those first 5 movies as the really big ones, it was a very weak slate, i think the lack of different options lead to people ultimately being interested in the same things and getting the top 5 right on spot. 

 

This year 10 of these 15 movies are very big, and there even some missing like GOTG3 that wasn´t listed as an option, there´s way more room to choice and make the list less reliable. 

 

But let´s see, if somehow they spot on again, great news for SpiderVerse

Edited April 20, 2023 by ThomasNicole