The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

8 minutes ago, Maggie said:

The Flash - number two most anticipated + awesome quality movie = SUMMER WINNER

Flash was number 3.

[ChipDerby]

26 minutes ago, filmlover said:

These polls always end up being very hit and miss. The only especially shocking omission (aside from Guardians but it seems that was disqualified being the kickoff movie of the summer) is Blue Beetle IMO. And I guess Asteroid City making it while none of the studio comedies (Strays, No Hard Feelings, Joy Ride) showed up but that makes sense since Wes has a big online following + the cast is arguably his most starry yet.

 

Yeah I don't like that Blue Beetle missed. 

[poweranimals]

1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said:

 

 

Why is Guardians not on here? I know a lot of people don't include May as part of summer but they did include Mermaid so that doesn't make any sense.

[GOGODanca]

Just now, poweranimals said:

Why is Guardians not on here? I know a lot of people don't include May as part of summer but they did include Mermaid so that doesn't make any sense.

fast x is the cut off

[filmlover]

Just now, poweranimals said:

Why is Guardians not on here? I know a lot of people don't include May as part of summer but they did include Mermaid so that doesn't make any sense.

It was intentionally excluded from the list. The poll covers everything from Fast X to end of summer.

[poweranimals]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It was intentionally excluded from the list. The poll covers everything from Fast X to end of summer.

Well that seems rather arbitrary.

Edited April 20, 2023 by poweranimals

[ChipDerby]

2 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

Well that seems rather arbitrary.

 

I mean summer technically starts at the end of June. So...

[filmlover]

Also I posted this in the 2023 thread but since we're discussing summer I'll also share it here: Indiewire predicts 12 movies making $100M+ for the entire summer.

 

$300M+: Guardians of the Galaxy, Little Mermaid, Spider-Man, Indiana Jones

$200M+: Fast X, Elemental, The Flash, Mission: Impossible

$100M+: Transformers, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Haunted Mansion

 

With Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles as possible #13 (won't have a good idea until we're closer to release)

 

https://www.indiewire.com/2023/04/summer-movies-box-office-ranked-1234829518/

[poweranimals]

2 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

 

I mean summer technically starts at the end of June. So...

Yeah, I know but at least there's usually some kind of precedent. Most people seem to consider May as part of the box office season. I could respect if they excluded May though. I could even respect if they wanted to wait until the technical first day of summer even though that would make it a pretty boring list. If they wanted to start with Memorial Day weekend even that would make sense, but randomly starting the week before is an odd choice. Especially since it only excludes Guardians 3. Not a big deal at the end of the day, but I still think it's kind of an odd choice.

[PrinceRico]

Starting to think it will be a Batman Begins vs The Dark Knight increase situation with Spider Man

[filmlover]

I just noticed that Elemental missed the list completely but that was hardly a surprise or necessarily a cause for a concern considering it was likely squeezed out by too many IP titles.

[TwoMisfits]

47 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

 

I mean summer technically starts at the end of June. So...

 

Meteorological summer is June 1...

Holiday summer is Memorial Day...

Summer solstice is latish June...

College student summer is mid-May...

K-12 summer is late May to late June start...

 

AKA, we have so many definitions of summer start, why not let movies have the earliest one:)...

 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Evil Dead Rise

 

Thursday

ORLANDO REGION

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
37	859	5528	15.5%

^{*Numbers taken as of 3:00pm EST}

 

*10 New Showings Added Today 

*114 Seats Sold Today

 

Comps: 

The Pope's Exorcist (3.254x) ~$2.8M THUR 

 

-Scream 6 (7.8x IM) : $23M OW

 

prediction: $3M THUR $23M OW

Evil Dead Rise

 

Thursday

ORLANDO REGION

 

T-0

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
39	1248	5726	21.8%

^{*Numbers taken as of 2:30pm EST}

 

*2 New Showings Added Today 

*389 Seats Sold Today

 

Comps: 

The Pope's Exorcist (4.727x) ~$4M THUR 

 

prediction: 

$3.5M THUR 

-Scream 6 (7.8x IM) : ~$27M OW

-Halloween Ends (7.4x IM) : ~$26M OW

 

Going $25M OW

[poweranimals]

I don't know why people are so surprised about Elemental. Is there any real reason to be excited about it? Other than that it's Pixar which hasn't exactly been a big selling point as of late.

[misterpepp]

Don’t family titles normally score lower on these polls? Have to imagine that most of the Fandango user base consists of adults. Kids certainly aren’t buying the tickets!

 

That being said, I’ve had Elemental as a miss for a while. Just looks too plain.

[filmlover]

I've had Elemental ending up with a Good Dinosaur-ish total of about $125M or so for a while tbh. At least Inside Out 2 is guaranteed to make bank next year.

[keysersoze123]

Guardians MTC1

Friday - 58635/1273535 1065378.69 6903 shows

Saturday - 56661/1335192 943434.17 7247 shows

 

Still the pace is meh. Let us see where things are in a week's time before reactions start. 

 

Comps for Ant which was a day earlier. Only good news is saturday ratios are better. 

Edited April 20, 2023 by keysersoze123

[Flamengo81]

2 hours ago, PrinceRico said:

Starting to think it will be a Batman Begins vs The Dark Knight increase situation with Spider Man

That would mean a 1B gross so I highly disagree.

[Poseidon]

People seem to have forgotten, that those Fandango Polls are pretty much useless or at best a very vague hint:

 

https://ew.com/movies/2019/05/22/spider-man-far-from-home-fandango-summer-movies-survey/

 

Usually, the only solid hint are family movies showing up high in that list. See Lion King and TS4 for 2019. 

 

Here's the 2018 edition: https://www.boxofficepro.com/avengers-deadpool-2-summer-movies/

Edited April 20, 2023 by Poseidon

[el sid]

Evil Dead Rise, counted today for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 165 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 149 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 39 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 32 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 43 (1 showtime)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 217 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 293 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 938.

Up 32% since yesterday. On that level that's a nice jump.
Comps (all films counted on Thursday for Thursday): Prey for the Devil (660k from previews) had 164 sold tickets,
Smile (2M) had 306,
Scary Stories (2.33M) had 883 sold tickets,
M3gan (2.75M) had 782,
X (?k) had 316,
Barbarian (850k) had 289
and The Invitation (775k) had 218 sold tickets.

Between 2.5-3M from previews judging from my comps.

Evil Dead Rise, counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 213 (7 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 106 (10 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 35 (6 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 28 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 45 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 194 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 279 (8 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 900.

Up also good 32% since yesterday.
Comps (all films counted on Thursday for Friday): Old had 500 sold tickets,
Prey for the Devil had 262 sold tickets,
Smile had 549,
Scary Stories had 578,
M3gan had 752,
Malignant had 237
and Barbarian had 249 sold tickets.

Finally good jumps! The presales in my theaters point to 25M and even more but Idk if the walk-ups could be a bit lower because of the R-Rating. OTOH that didn't hurt other films, e.g. Smile, and the reviews are very good.
So I would definitely predict over 20M and with decent walk-ups 25M are reachable.