The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Menor Reborn said:

Yes. It needs strong reviews. BW added 160k from this point, Guardians pace is similar to what BW was doing but BW already had the reviews out. If Guardians reviews can provide a further catalyst then that number is reachable. I expect them to do just that, but review bumps are not always predictable.

 

BW was different era when MTC3 was mostly down and there were seating restrictions. So MTC2 ratio was higher than norm for MCU movies. Its still well below Ant 3 or Thor. Let us where things are by Monday when we would have seen the review surge. 

[ZackM]

19 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

 

The IMAX Guardians of the Galaxy Marathon Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days
4/23/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	57	57	4,183	17,116	24.44%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	0	0	0
ATP
$46.33

 

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	2	5	3	2
Seats Added	0	216	847	321	194
Seats Sold	3,061	2,049	2,119	1,831	1,560
4/23/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	431	6,886	111,101	1,121,731	12.85%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	4	26	109	219
ATP
$17.63

 

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 Comps
	Ant-Man: Quantumania		Black Panther: WF		Thor: Love & Thunder
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10
T-11	$12.9	$12.8	$15.6	$16.2	$14.7	$15.2
T-12	$12.8	$12.7	$15.5	$16.1	$14.8	$15.2
T-13	$12.8	$12.7	$15.6	$16.1	$14.9	$15.3
T-14	$12.8	$12.7	$15.7	$16.3	$15.1	$15.6
T-15	$12.8	$12.7	$15.9	$16.5	$15.2	$15.7
T-16	$12.8	$12.7	$16.0	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8
T-17	$12.8	$12.6	$15.9	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8

 

The IMAX Guardians of the Galaxy Marathon Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days
4/24/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	57	57	4,229	17,116	24.71%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	0	0	0
ATP
$46.33

 

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	10	0	2	5	3
Seats Added	1,082	0	216	847	321
Seats Sold	3,181	3,061	2,049	2,119	1,831
4/24/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	431	6,896	114,282	1,122,813	10.18%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	5	29	117	231
ATP
$17.59

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 Comps
	Ant-Man: Quantumania		Black Panther: WF		Thor: Love & Thunder
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10	$13.0	$12.9	$15.6	$16.2	$14.7	$15.2
T-11	$12.9	$12.8	$15.6	$16.2	$14.7	$15.2
T-12	$12.8	$12.7	$15.5	$16.1	$14.8	$15.2
T-13	$12.8	$12.7	$15.6	$16.1	$14.9	$15.3
T-14	$12.8	$12.7	$15.7	$16.3	$15.1	$15.6
T-15	$12.8	$12.7	$15.9	$16.5	$15.2	$15.7
T-16	$12.8	$12.7	$16.0	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8
T-17	$12.8	$12.6	$15.9	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

On 4/24/2023 at 10:38 AM, Menor Reborn said:

Guardians 3 MTC3

 

Total Shows: 5288

Total Sold: 37605/1080635

 

This is the first time I'm tracking this chain and the ratio of reserved/non-reserved seating makes it difficult to compare with other data, so no comps as of now. But it'll be nice to have this for upcoming CBMs like Flash/Spiderverse etc.

 

Guardians MTC3

 

Shows: 5301 (+13)

Sold: 39191/1085987 (+1586)

 

So this sets the baseline pace, let's see how it increases through the week. 

[M37]

On 4/23/2023 at 9:22 AM, M37 said:

Sure do hope the early review embargo release and now these free screenings do help push a good number of people off the fence, because the numbers not only are looking bleak, with an unweighted average around $14.5M for Thursday, but trending down

 

 

Looking a little closer at pace, and its honestly even worse (credit to @keysersoze123 for banging the drum on this). The growth over the last week has been only slightly better than MoM, despite having just a third of the volume, and on par with AMWQ without the bigger initial fan rush. Continuing to trek in that range would project to 120-125K tickets sold for Alpha by T-7, and a finish in the ~250-260K range, or at or below $14M for Thursday. There's a very real possibility the OW here not only misses $100M, but begins with an 8 (and in the pessimistic case, maybe even a 7!)

 

As someone who has been - and still is to a degree - a little more optimistic about the potential of a more casual/GA audience here producing a stronger late kick (in terms of growth rate) than the more anticipated titles that came before, the data is the data, and the even more subtle trends one would want to see just aren't materializing. Can't escape feeling that we may be staring down another slow-motion crash, similar to not only AMWQ but perhaps even Shazam, where Fury of the Gods saw a 44% decline from the prior film's OW, in large part because of external factors, audiences just having moved on. That same reduction would be ~$82.5M OW for GOTG3, and that that outcome is entirely plausible with present numbers and trajectory.

OW Range: $80-105M

 

On a related noted, the potential is brewing for Disney to have a disaster of a year, as all of their major releases have some questions, and would not be shocking if every one missed the mark and came in well below early expectations

Given how much [UNEXPECTED] attention that post above garnered, wanted to follow up and explain a bit more, in particular address this thought line:

22 hours ago, Menor Reborn said:

The smaller starting value makes it easier to have a higher growth rate compared to the big 2022 comps

22 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

The fact that is started so lower should help to open more room to have a way bigger growth in the final days compared to movies that burned a lot of demand in the early days

Going to put a big chunk of this under spoiler boxes so as not clog up the thread

Spoiler

First, let me say that I agree with that sentiment: its like changing direction for a ship, in that the larger it is, the more force is required, while smaller ones can change direction with less effort.  The issue is, that principle doesn't just apply in the final days, but throughout the course of the run.

 

What I do in analyzing the data is try to determine a film's sales momentum, narrow down the range of potential outcomes considerably, by determining its current sales volume (mass) and its growth rate (velocity). Generally, once a film finishes off its initial sales burst, it will settle into its natural growth level, and stay in that "lane" for the duration of the sales period, unless impacted by outside factors like holidays or major catalysts like exceptionally good or poor reviews (In the same manner as post-release, a film will find its natural rate of decline and stay on that general slope)

 

The reason I constantly harp on growth rates is that I've found that they are correlated and predictive, in that we don't have to wait until the final days to see what might happen - when graphed, the lines don't like to cross, like the streams from proton packs. And even when they do, its explainable largely by outside factors, and within a range of possible outcomes; slow moving semis don't suddenly accelerate like a Corvette.

Spoiler

Here are the growth rates from all of the $10M+ Alpha tracked previews since 2022:

 

With 2 notable exceptions, the level of growth seen from T-14 to T-7 predicts with a decently small MOE what will come in the final week.

One of those exceptions is Avatar 2, which is among the group of films that due to either an older/mature or a particularly niche/fan heavy audience, tend to flatten out in the final week. Their sales pattern is just shifted earlier overall, lacking a younger and/or more casual audience to continue the higher pace down the stretch (think Elvis, 80 for Brady, Anime, & Christian films)

 

Let's de-clutter that graph a bit, focus on a few films with a largely normal trajectory, and the other exception

 

Here the pattern is more evident: JWD, despite its long sales window and lower sales volume, was always growing at a faster rate, and continued that higher pace all the way to the final day. BPWF is a close to "normal" as this data set has, good pace and solid finish. And AMWQ is one of slower paced films, growing slowly despite good early sales, and finished weakly. At present GOTG3 is in a bad place, finding itself in the slowest lane on the board, only in the last day or 2 starting to separate from AMWQ. From that position - not so much the lower sales volume but the slow pace - there is just a limit on how much late growth we can reasonably expect in the final week.

 

The other exception shown is Batman, which after it finished its initial sales burst was in same range as BPWF from T-10 to T-3. Then, while correlation doesn't prove causation, saw a strong late burst after very positive reviews came out. While I remain open to that possibility for GOTG3, from this starting point, just matching the last week growth of Thor and BPWF would be outkicking expectations facilitated by a large review bump. Catching up to Batman probably is pushing limits of how much reviews can move the needle, but a finishing pace between that and BPWF is optimistically plausible. And that is a mid-teens preview number

I cannot stress enough that despite the low sales volume, where it is easier in theory to grow faster, how poor the pace (growth rate) of sales has been up until Sunday. The last couple of days are likely an inflection point moving up, but there is a still a LOT of work to be done to get into position for what most would consider a decent OW

 

Pessimistic Case: GOTG3 continues to pace at or only slightly better than AMWQ (+90-100% final week), winds up with a preview value of $13-$14.5M

Base Case: The most likely outcome, is that we do see a more casual audience and review bump, pace moves up a notch, to the BPWF/Thor range (+110-120%), and preview lands in $15-$16M range

Optimistic Case: We see a large review inspired acceleration, and GOTG3 paces faster than Thor/BPWF down the stretch, but probably not quite to level of Batman (+140%), preview total lands more in $16-$17M range

 

Anything above $17.5M would a significant outlier based on data currently in hand. If you're hoping for a bigger OW, better at this point to bet on a higher IM than preview growing to upper teens. Fwiw, I'm penciling in 6x-7x, decent chance IMO it beats BPWF (6.48x) as the highest for MCU since Eternals. Don't think its reasonable to project over 7x given the recent frontloaded history, but also won't be shocked if it were to happen

 

The Sunday and Monday surge was enough to pull up the floor on the OW forecast, and I hope @Inceptionzq and @katnisscinnaplex chime in at some point with their markets to give a better big picture view, but for now, still probably below where most others have: $85-110M

Edited April 25, 2023 by M37

[Brainbug]

15 minutes ago, M37 said:

Given how much [UNEXPECTED] attention that post above garnered, wanted to follow up and explain a bit more, in particular address this thought line:

Going to put a big chunk of this under spoiler boxes so as not clog up the thread

  Reveal hidden contents

First, let me say that I agree with that sentiment: its like changing direction for a ship, in that the larger it is, the more force is required, while smaller ones can change direction with less effort.  The issue is, that principle doesn't just apply in the final days, but throughout the course of the run.

 

What I do in analyzing the data is try to determine a film's sales momentum, narrow down the range of potential outcomes considerably, by determining its current sales volume (mass) and its growth rate (velocity). Generally, once a film finishes off its initial sales burst, it will settle into its natural growth level, and stay in that "lane" for the duration of the sales period, unless impacted by outside factors like holidays or major catalysts like exceptionally good or poor reviews (In the same manner as post-release, a film will find its natural rate of decline and stay on that general slope)

 

The reason I constantly harp on growth rates is that I've found that they are correlated and predictive, in that we don't have to wait until the final days to see what might happen - when graphed, the lines don't like to cross, like the streams from proton packs. And even when they do, its explainable largely by outside factors, and within a range of possible outcomes; slow moving semis don't suddenly accelerate like a Corvette.

  Hide contents

Here are the growth rates from all of the $10M+ Alpha tracked previews since 2022:

 

With 2 notable exceptions, the level of growth seen from T-14 to T-7 predicts with a decently small MOE what will come in the final week.

One of those exceptions is Avatar 2, which is among the group of films that due to either an older/mature or a particularly niche/fan heavy audience, tend to flatten out in the final week. Their sales pattern is just shifted earlier overall, lacking a younger and/or more casual audience to continue the higher pace down the stretch (think Elvis, 80 for Brady, Anime, & Christian films)

 

Let's de-clutter that graph a bit, focus on a few films with a largely normal trajectory, and the other exception

 

Here the pattern is more evident: JWD, despite its long sales window and lower sales volume, was always growing at a faster rate, and continued that higher pace all the way to the final day. BPWF is a close to "normal" as this data set has, good pace and solid finish. And AMWQ is one of slower paced films, growing slowly despite good early sales, and finished weakly. At present GOTG3 is in a bad place, finding itself in the slowest lane on the board, only in the last day or 2 starting to separate from AMWQ. From that position - not so much the lower sales volume but the slow pace - there is just a limit on how much late growth we can reasonably expect in the final week.

 

The other exception shown is Batman, which after it finished its initial sales burst was in same range as BPWF from T-10 to T-3. Then, while correlation doesn't prove causation, saw a strong late burst after very positive reviews came out. While I remain open to that possibility for GOTG3, from this starting point, just matching the last week growth of Thor and BPWF would be outkicking expectations facilitated by a large review bump. Catching up to Batman probably is pushing limits of how much reviews can move the needle, but a finishing pace between that and BPWF is optimistically plausible. And that is a mid-teens preview number

I cannot stress enough that despite the low sales volume, where it is easier in theory to grow faster, how poor the pace (growth rate) of sales has been up until Sunday. The last couple of days are likely an inflection point moving up, but there is a still a LOT of work to be done to get into position for what most would consider a decent OW

 

Pessimistic Case: GOTG3 continues to pace at or only slightly better than AMWQ (+90-100% final week), winds up with a preview value of $13-$14.5M

Base Case: The most likely outcome, is that we do see a more casual audience and review bump, pace moves up a notch, to the BPWF/Thor range (+110-120%), and preview lands in $15-$16M range

Optimistic Case: We see a large review inspired acceleration, and GOTG3 paces faster than Thor/BPWF down the stretch, but probably not quite to level of Batman (+140%), preview total lands more in $16-$17M range

 

Anything above $17.5M would a significant outlier based on data currently in hand. If you're hoping for a bigger OW, better at this point to bet on a higher IM than preview growing to upper teens. Fwiw, I'm penciling in 6x-7x, decent chance IMO it beats BPWF (6.48x) as the highest for MCU since Eternals. Don't think its reasonable to project over 7x given the recent frontloaded history, but also won't be shocked if it were to happen

 

The Sunday and Monday surge was enough to pull up the floor on the OW forecast, and I hope @Inceptionzq and @katnisscinnaplex chime in at some point with their markets to give a better big picture view, but for now, still probably below where most others have: $85-110M

 

Me reading this post:

 

[JustLurking]

4 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Me reading this post:

 

more people seeing shazam in this thread than in the theater

[keysersoze123]

Look at MTC1, I am not impressed with Monday pace. Barring something out of ordinary, its going to be closer to 120K than 125K. So the friday burst have to be something legendary. or the acceleration could be something like Thursday - 3.5K Friday - 11K Sat - 15K Sun - 18K. Not sure if that is even possible. Movies tend to flatten out a bit over the weekend. I am still thinking 18m previews/111m OW on top of Wakanda level reviews at minimum. If it pulls a MOM level or below, then its probably looking at ~ 16m previews and ~ 100m OW. 

 

Thor pace between T-10 to T-7

 

Big advantage compared to Ant is final week was abysmal. I dont see that happening for Guardians and so let us use Thor for now. 

Edited April 25, 2023 by keysersoze123

[ThomasNicole]

58 minutes ago, M37 said:

Given how much [UNEXPECTED] attention that post above garnered, wanted to follow up and explain a bit more, in particular address this thought line:

Going to put a big chunk of this under spoiler boxes so as not clog up the thread

  Hide contents

First, let me say that I agree with that sentiment: its like changing direction for a ship, in that the larger it is, the more force is required, while smaller ones can change direction with less effort.  The issue is, that principle doesn't just apply in the final days, but throughout the course of the run.

 

What I do in analyzing the data is try to determine a film's sales momentum, narrow down the range of potential outcomes considerably, by determining its current sales volume (mass) and its growth rate (velocity). Generally, once a film finishes off its initial sales burst, it will settle into its natural growth level, and stay in that "lane" for the duration of the sales period, unless impacted by outside factors like holidays or major catalysts like exceptionally good or poor reviews (In the same manner as post-release, a film will find its natural rate of decline and stay on that general slope)

 

The reason I constantly harp on growth rates is that I've found that they are correlated and predictive, in that we don't have to wait until the final days to see what might happen - when graphed, the lines don't like to cross, like the streams from proton packs. And even when they do, its explainable largely by outside factors, and within a range of possible outcomes; slow moving semis don't suddenly accelerate like a Corvette.

  Hide contents

Here are the growth rates from all of the $10M+ Alpha tracked previews since 2022:

 

With 2 notable exceptions, the level of growth seen from T-14 to T-7 predicts with a decently small MOE what will come in the final week.

One of those exceptions is Avatar 2, which is among the group of films that due to either an older/mature or a particularly niche/fan heavy audience, tend to flatten out in the final week. Their sales pattern is just shifted earlier overall, lacking a younger and/or more casual audience to continue the higher pace down the stretch (think Elvis, 80 for Brady, Anime, & Christian films)

 

Let's de-clutter that graph a bit, focus on a few films with a largely normal trajectory, and the other exception

 

Here the pattern is more evident: JWD, despite its long sales window and lower sales volume, was always growing at a faster rate, and continued that higher pace all the way to the final day. BPWF is a close to "normal" as this data set has, good pace and solid finish. And AMWQ is one of slower paced films, growing slowly despite good early sales, and finished weakly. At present GOTG3 is in a bad place, finding itself in the slowest lane on the board, only in the last day or 2 starting to separate from AMWQ. From that position - not so much the lower sales volume but the slow pace - there is just a limit on how much late growth we can reasonably expect in the final week.

 

The other exception shown is Batman, which after it finished its initial sales burst was in same range as BPWF from T-10 to T-3. Then, while correlation doesn't prove causation, saw a strong late burst after very positive reviews came out. While I remain open to that possibility for GOTG3, from this starting point, just matching the last week growth of Thor and BPWF would be outkicking expectations facilitated by a large review bump. Catching up to Batman probably is pushing limits of how much reviews can move the needle, but a finishing pace between that and BPWF is optimistically plausible. And that is a mid-teens preview number

I cannot stress enough that despite the low sales volume, where it is easier in theory to grow faster, how poor the pace (growth rate) of sales has been up until Sunday. The last couple of days are likely an inflection point moving up, but there is a still a LOT of work to be done to get into position for what most would consider a decent OW

 

Pessimistic Case: GOTG3 continues to pace at or only slightly better than AMWQ (+90-100% final week), winds up with a preview value of $13-$14.5M

Base Case: The most likely outcome, is that we do see a more casual audience and review bump, pace moves up a notch, to the BPWF/Thor range (+110-120%), and preview lands in $15-$16M range

Optimistic Case: We see a large review inspired acceleration, and GOTG3 paces faster than Thor/BPWF down the stretch, but probably not quite to level of Batman (+140%), preview total lands more in $16-$17M range

 

Anything above $17.5M would a significant outlier based on data currently in hand. If you're hoping for a bigger OW, better at this point to bet on a higher IM than preview growing to upper teens. Fwiw, I'm penciling in 6x-7x, decent chance IMO it beats BPWF (6.48x) as the highest for MCU since Eternals. Don't think its reasonable to project over 7x given the recent frontloaded history, but also won't be shocked if it were to happen

 

The Sunday and Monday surge was enough to pull up the floor on the OW forecast, and I hope @Inceptionzq and @katnisscinnaplex chime in at some point with their markets to give a better big picture view, but for now, still probably below where most others have: $85-110M

Damn you´re really good explaining you pov, yeah that seems completely reasonable. It was reasonable yesterday but seems even more now. 

 

I´m still hopeful for the outlier, i would be happier with at least 18M previews. If reviews are great and the outlier happens i think we can say for sure people now are cautious with MCU to a point they just really don´t care to wait until the very end to see if it´s a good received movie. 

 

But i can see clearly now where you coming from, seems more realistic indeed. 

 

I agreed about the IM, the strong SUN is a sign of that ... while is weird to expect a sequel to behave closer to an ´´original´´ MCU title, i think Guardians is probably the only franchise of them at this point that there´s really no need to rush, it just seems too on it´s own, so while i wouldn´t bet on +7x, wouldn´t shock me either.

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

BW was different era when MTC3 was mostly down and there were seating restrictions. So MTC2 ratio was higher than norm for MCU movies. Its still well below Ant 3 or Thor. Let us where things are by Monday when we would have seen the review surge. 

 

MTC3 was fully open by the time of Black Widow, no?  Most seat restrictions were gone by then as well, IIRC. 

 

From what I remember, MTC3 was fully reopened by the end of May, 2021.  Seating restrictions were lifted in mid June of that year, again from what I recall.

 

The only place that was still closed down was Ontario, which while not nothing isn't quite the same level as what films like AQP2 faced.

[GOGODanca]

What would a last week ramp up like Venom 2 get GotG3 to preview wise?

[TheFlatLannister]

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Fast X

 

Thursday 

T-23

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
139	1335	26344	5.1%

 

ATP - $13.60

 

 

Will be tracking til T-0

 

           Comparison: 

Guardians of the galaxy Vol. 3

ATP $14.40

[keysersoze123]

20 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

MTC3 was fully open by the time of Black Widow, no?  Most seat restrictions were gone by then as well, IIRC. 

 

From what I remember, MTC3 was fully reopened by the end of May, 2021.  Seating restrictions were lifted in mid June of that year, again from what I recall.

 

The only place that was still closed down was Ontario, which while not nothing isn't quite the same level as what films like AQP2 faced.

Back in 2021 MTC3 grosses were well below MTC2. Now its other way around. I am not very sure about theater blocked seats except that I do remember tracking them back then. 

[kayumanggi]

 

[M37]

37 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Look at MTC1, I am not impressed with Monday pace. Barring something out of ordinary, its going to be closer to 120K than 125K

Even if it were to match Monday sales over the next 3 days, it would be another 9K+ for ~124K total, and IMO more likely the acceleration begins and we see ~4.5x Mon over that time for 127-128K by T-7. I'm hesitant to rely much on Thor's daily pattern due to the shorter sales window and July 4th holiday, but BPWF should be a decent barometer for the rest of the run

 

 

[keysersoze123]

Just now, M37 said:

Even if it were to match Monday sales over the next 3 days, it would be another 9K+ for ~124K total, and IMO more likely the acceleration begins and we see ~4.5x Mon over that time for 127-128K by T-7. I'm hesitant to rely much on Thor's daily pattern due to the shorter sales window and July 4th holiday, but BPWF should be a decent barometer for the rest of the run

 

 

you are right. I for some reason thought we have tuesday number :-) I have data from this morning pace is slightly down from previous 24 hours. I guess Sunday saw surge due to the news cycle burst over the weekend. I think 125K T-7 makes sense as I hope thursday will see surge due to premier shows happening that day. 

[Porthos]

36 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Back in 2021 MTC3 grosses were well below MTC2. Now its other way around. I am not very sure about theater blocked seats except that I do remember tracking them back then. 

 

While there might have been some stragglers, most seat restrictions were lifted in the middle of/toward the end of F9's pre-sale run, even in places like California and New York.  I remember this quite vividly as a minor regional chain that shall go nameless did not remove the blacked out seats that were in place to enforce distance requirements and were instead reporting them as sold seats.  However, said regional chain did indeed fix it at the last week of BW's pre-sale run.  Even marked the dates on my sheets so I know when to shift from adjusted tracking to non-adjusted tracking.

 

I think a bigger difference would be BW having premium access on Disney Plus.  But, then again, ticket sales are ticket sales and every film has its own set of challenges.

 

Mind, I don't particularly think BW is predictive right now so most of this is academic.  But at final bell?  Once ATP differences and Ontario are factored in, I don't see any particular reason why it shouldn't.

Edited April 25, 2023 by Porthos

[M37]

1 hour ago, GOGODanca said:

What would a last week ramp up like Venom 2 get GotG3 to preview wise?

Venom 2 had some mitigating factors that led to an atypical sales pattern (hit the bottom of the U-curve for like 2 days before starting to accelerate), and is best not used as a comp for anything. However, Shang-Chi grew 213% in the final week, slightly better than JWD (210%), but with only a 17 day sales window, so that's not a likely outcome for something that's been on sale for 5 weeks.

 

But to answer that question anyway, from a ~128K T-7 at Alpha you'd get ~400K for ~$22M

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

Venom 2 had some mitigating factors that led to an atypical sales pattern (hit the bottom of the U-curve for like 2 days before starting to accelerate), and is best not used as a comp for anything. However, Shang-Chi grew 213% in the final week, slightly better than JWD (210%), but with only a 17 day sales window, so that's not a likely outcome for something that's been on sale for 5 weeks.

 

But to answer that question anyway, from a ~128K T-7 at Alpha you'd get ~400K for ~$22M

if we start seeing Guardians ramp up towards 22m previews, I expect some of the usual suspects who would be all over this thread otherwise back. I hope that happens to put life back to this thread. Its moribund for this time for sure. 

 

Edited April 25, 2023 by keysersoze123

[JustLurking]

35 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

if we start seeing Guardians ramp up towards 22m previews, I expect some of the usual suspects who would be all over this thread otherwise back. I hope that happens to put life back to this thread. Its moribund for this time for sure. 

 

I get it though. It's more fun to put effort into tracking things you like than seeing it do poorly. Still everything sees a downfall eventually so I'm sure they'll be back regardless.

[el sid]

Yesterday there was just nothing (important) to report: The „Are You There, God?“ presales were very low and those for „Big George Foreman“ to my suprise even worse (only 24 sold tickets for Thursday and 10 sold tickets for Friday). Plus still no significant jumps for GotG3. Today it looks at least a bit better for GotG3 but not for the rest.

Are You There, God?, counted today for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): no showtimes so far
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 2 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 0 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): no showtimes so far
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 7 (2 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): ( showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 5 theaters: 18.

Comps (pretty worthless): DWD had on the same day, Tuesday of the release week, 589 sold tickets;
TLC had on Wednesday = 1 day later 520 sold tickets
and Crawdads had also on Wednesday 212 sold tickets.

Are You There, God?, counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): no showtimes so far
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 8 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 2 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 1 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): no showtimes so far
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 3 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 8 (4 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 5 theaters: 27.

Comps: DWD had on the same day, Tuesday of the release week, 573 sold tickets;
TLC had on Wednesday = 1 day later 519 sold tickets
and Crawdads had also on Wednesday 185 sold tickets.