The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[John Marston]

so ticket sales are lower than Ant Man 3 but the hope is that it gets better walk ups right?

[ZackM]

7 minutes ago, John Marston said:

so ticket sales are lower than Ant Man 3 but the hope is that it gets better walk ups right?

I think better walk ups are a lock since AM3 bad walkups and GotG3 has been trending ahead of it for the last few updates, but the chances of it catching AM3 on the back of walk ups is still iffy.  Might be too far behind.

Edited May 4, 2023 by ZackM

[M37]

1 hour ago, ZackM said:

Looking at my records, you've got BPWF at the high end with $57.41 per ticket sold and NWH at the low end with $53.21 per ticket sold.  If GotG3 does 18.5m on 315K tickets, that would be $58.73 per ticket.  So higher than we've seen since I started tracking Alpha, but nothing crazy like we got from movies like Jurassic World and Maverick, which were both near $70 per ticket.

I guess an extra ~$2/tix ratio is more of an effect than I was accounting for. Had a 300K = $17M benchmark in my head, but there’s enough wiggle room there for a higher PSM to get to $18M (if it does indeed finish north of 300K)

[keysersoze123]

Fast X MTC1 previews - 29192/457883 533412.06 2195 shows

 

This is my first run and it looks like TC are not feeling it looking at low show count. That said ticket sales are not bad. Should end up with higher previews than F9. 

 

F9 MTC1 (T-5)- 36039/400144 524863.00 2215 shows(428 Theatres)

[charlie Jatinder]

You basically need $5.1M ish for $18M normally. $5.1M usually would come from $4.8M tracked or around 295-305K tix.

[charlie Jatinder]

Alpha ratio for recent MCU

 

MoM 28.4
Thor 27.8

BP2 30.5

AM 28

[MovieMan89]

8 minutes ago, ZackM said:

I think better walk ups are a lock since AM3 bad walkups and GotG3 has been trending ahead of it for the last few updates, but the chances of it catching AM3 on the back of walk ups is still iffy.  Might be too far behind.

I know AM3 was also a third movie, but in a sense that sub franchise felt more inviting for newcomers. Whereas I can’t see newcomers suddenly jumping on board gotg 3 movies in. That’s to say, I feel like AM3 would have the advantage for walk ups? 

[GOGODanca]

6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I know AM3 was also a third movie, but in a sense that sub franchise felt more inviting for newcomers. Whereas I can’t see newcomers suddenly jumping on board gotg 3 movies in. That’s to say, I feel like AM3 would have the advantage for walk ups? 

ant-man and gotg require the same viewing homework (IW, EG, and the first 2 of each) + GotG was a much bigger sub franchise than ant-man and its good whereas ant man stunk so walkups will favor the former

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Fast X MTC1 previews - 29192/457883 533412.06 2195 shows

 

This is my first run and it looks like TC are not feeling it looking at low show count. That said ticket sales are not bad. Should end up with higher previews than F9. 

 

F9 MTC1 (T-5)- 36039/400144 524863.00 2215 shows(428 Theatres)

Iirc MTC1 was deflated in June 2022 due to social distancing, in fact I think MTC 2 was doing better than MTC1 for F9.

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, GOGODanca said:

https://deadline.com/2023/05/box-office-little-mermaid-opening-projection-1235356151/

 

$110m 4 day for TLM

 

 

Aladdin '19 was tracking for $70-90M at this same point (https://deadline.com/2019/05/aladdin-box-office-opening-weekend-projection-will-smith-1202606259/) so already a good sign for this.

[Porthos]

10 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	343	33312	41675	8363	20.07%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	25
Total Seats Added Today	2586
Total Seats Sold Today	1174

NOTE: One of the non-reserved seating theaters I track announced it was permanently closing on Friday, which accounts for all of the removed showings today.  See this post for details.

 

T-1 Comps:

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	120.43		1144	6944		0/258	25357/32301	21.50%		9196	90.94%		18.69m
ET	179.00		739	4672		0/136	13796/18468	25.30%		6409	130.49%		19.22m
MoM	45.78		1695	18267		0/404	28068/46335	39.42%		21117	39.60%		16.48m
L&T	61.87		2246	13516		0/312	25975/39491	34.23%		16962	49.30%		17.94m
Bats	87.67		1621	9539		1/327	29315/38854	24.55%		11757	71.13%		18.94m
BP2	61.39		1695	13622		2/375	29516/43138	31.58%		16800	49.78%		17.19m
AM3	96.64		979	8654		0/305	28519/37173	23.28%		10475	79.84%		16.91m
JWD	99.33		1560	8419		0/290	25319/33738	24.95%		10966	76.26%		17.88m
TGM	86.61		945	9656		2/345	33356/43012	22.45%		11474	72.89%		16.68m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

BW & ET COMP NOTE:  The Black Widow comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.17594x to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post, while Eternals has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x purely to reflect the difference in ATP.

 

Regal:     1922/13745  [13.98% sold]
Matinee:    398/4148  [9.59% | 4.76% of all tickets sold]
3D:            996/6992  [14.24% | 11.91% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

The recovery continues.  Looking like it's converging on 18m-19m.

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:30am - 12:20pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	345	32602	41801	9199	22.01%

 

Total Showings Added Since Last Night	2
Total Seats Added Since Last Night	126
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	836

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Comps:

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW [12:00-12:55]	117.41		891	7835		0/258	24466/32301	24.26%		9196	100.03%		18.22m
ET [12:00-12:30]	173.11		642	5314		0/136	13154/18468	28.77%		6409	143.53%		18.59m
Bats [11:30-12:35]	87.79		939	10478		1/327	28376/38854	26.97%		11757	78.24%		18.96m
MoM [11:30-12:40]	47.27		1194	19461		0/409	27068/46529	41.83%		21117	43.56%		17.02m
TGM [11:30-12:30]	88.77		707	10363		2/345	32649/43012	24.09%		11474	80.17%		17.10m
JWD [12:00-12:50]	96.93		1071	9490		0/290	24248/33738	28.13%		10966	83.89%		17.45m
L&T [11:30-12:25]	61.71		1390	14906		0/313	24653/39559	37.68%		16962	54.23%		17.90m
BP2 [11:30-12:20]	62.38		1125	14747		2/375	28391/43138	34.19%		16800	54.76%		17.47m
AM3 [11:35-12:25]	97.95		738	9392		0/308	27981/37373	25.13%		10475	87.82%		17.14m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

BW & ET COMP NOTE:  The Black Widow comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.17594x to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post, while Eternals has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x purely to reflect the difference in ATP.

 

Regal:     2134/13745  [15.53% sold]
Matinee:    497/4148  [11.98% | 5.40% of all tickets sold]
3D:            1113/7118  [15.64% | 12.10% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Solid start of the day locally.  Outpacing against current comps of MoM, AM3 and BP2.  More or less on par with current comp of L&T.  Probably honing in on 18m to 18.5m.   Doing better than AM3 at the half day marker is a good sign for that, IMO.

Edited May 4, 2023 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

11 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Iirc MTC1 was deflated in June 2022 due to social distancing, in fact I think MTC 2 was doing better than MTC1 for F9.

MTC2(T-5) - 31010/320850 426714.33 2307 shows

 

I will take a look at MTC2 on saturday. Considering it plays well with latino crowd I expect MTC2 numbers to be solid. 

 

Edit: MTC2 show count is 3014 shows. So they are more optimistic than MTC1 for sure.  

Edited May 4, 2023 by keysersoze123

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC2(T-5) - 31010/320850 426714.33 2307 shows

 

I will take a look at MTC2 on saturday. Considering it plays well with latino crowd I expect MTC2 numbers to be solid. 

MiniTC2 have 1K tix sold. MtC2 likely be around 12-14K

[keysersoze123]

36 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

You basically need $5.1M ish for $18M normally. $5.1M usually would come from $4.8M tracked or around 295-305K tix.

There is no way it will hit 18m from 295K. Ant sold 315K for under that number. Normally I peg a ratio of 18K per million. Its fairly accurate for most MCU movies. Thor sold 525K for 29 million and Wakanda 495K for 28m. DS2 sold about 650K for 35m. 

[misterpepp]

Strays tix on sale May 17.

[el sid]

Enough members track the Thursday presales so I decided to count the Friday.

GotG3 counted today for tomorrow:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 661 (17 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 728 (24 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 295 (18 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 123 (12 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 255 (13 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 979 (24 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.443 (30 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 4.484.
Comps (all counted also on Thursday of the release week for Friday): Thor 4 (40.5M true Friday) had 6.946 sold tickets = 26M true Friday for GotG3.
Batman (39.4M) had 7.284 sold tickets = 24.7M.
SC (20.8M had 3.740 sold ticket = 25M.
Eternals (21.2M) had 4.090 sold tickets = 23.3M.
Morbius (11.6M had 1.884 sold tickets = 27.6M.
And Wakanda Forever (56.3M) had 8.736 sold tickets = 29M.

The average true Friday number from my comps is 25.85M but I think it will have good walk-ups and WOM so high twenties (28-29) would be my guess.
By the way I did only look at the Saturday presales in one theater (that in NY) and they were on par or even better than the Friday presales.

Edited May 4, 2023 by el sid

[charlie Jatinder]

24 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

There is no way it will hit 18m from 295K. Ant sold 315K for under that number.

Because as I mentioned before Ant Man actuals came under tracked. Normally tracked be 93-97% of actuals.

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Because as I mentioned before Ant Man actuals came under tracked. Normally tracked be 93-97% of actuals.

not just Ant. I comped with all MCU movies from 2022. Some of them played way stronger at all markets. I am not sure this is playing that well even in Canada based on @Tinalera update. 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

not just Ant. I comped with all MCU movies from 2022. Some of them played way stronger at all markets. I am not sure this is playing that well even in Canada based on @Tinalera update. 

Unfortunately the only MCU films whose actuals came higher than tracked over-indexed in Alpha.

 

Anyways, my focus is for GROSS. $5.1M will most often get you $18M.

[M37]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I would not go above Alpha comp...I don't see any reason the heartland would do better than the coasts and big cities on this movie.  If anything, I'd expect to see the same thing as Ant 3 (which is why I asked how that did earlier), which apparently overindexed at both MTC 1 and 2...

Fwiw, I am expecting the opposite, that GOTG3 will be a little be more GA/causal, a little less fan/metro heavy than AMWQ (based on a variety of smaller factors not worth diving into). But this is where not having those third tier, more variable samples like Megaplex and Jax/Pho/Ral leaves a blind spot in tracking. (Also, I can’t figure out why Drafthouse comps are so off the charts high, and if it means anything)

 

With that said, any such discrepancies may be marginal for Thursday, and become more apparent over the weekend.