The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[jedijake]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Sub 10x for sure. Nothing I have indicated that backloaded an OW. Plus the fact that it has early shows tomorrow as well. it has close to 6000 shows at the biggest chain till thursday. I dont think pre-pandemic movies had such wide previews. Mostly the previews used to start later and had fewer shows. The concept of "previews" is gone. This is almost another full day of BO for big movies. 

But isn't TLM prime for walk-ups? Plus, we have to factor in that Monday is a holiday for all schools, thus amplifying Sunday's numbers. Both Aladdin (pre-pandemic) and TGM (post pandemic) dropped less than 5% from Saturday to Sunday over Mem. weeknd. (but yeah, TGM's multi was muted)

[Super]

44 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Transformers specifically would benefit a lot from an September release … recognizable brand but not a priority anymore, could’ve thrive without competition 

It’ll only take Paramount how many more movies to realize this?
 

They should also stay away from DC films in particular, they usually seem to choose the ones that are breakouts. Let’s see if The Flash Carrie’s on that tradition and if Paramount finally learns.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Not completely counting out Flash or Indiana at this stage, but I was hoping for a bit better. But I also think the latter went a bit early with pre sales and both films are gonna be more WOM heavy due to issues with their franchises prior, so we’ll see.
 

Let’s face it though, we all know who June belongs to: Jennifer Lawrence. #NoHardFeelingsSweep.

[JayPrimetown]

Lot of movies in the market for advance sales. Give it some time. Advanced screening at my theater in Miami filled up 30 minutes before showtime. Even Top Gun Maverick didn't do that.

[Tinalera]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

*gets done setting up sheets for The Flash*

 

Huh.

 

Okay.

 

Look.  

 

Sales started a hell of a lot later in the day locally than they sometimes do (around 9:30am local time, I think).  And I went back and did a super quick re-sample and am already seeing growth.  And DC is notoriously soft in Sacto compared to Marvel.

 

Plus there isn't a Fan Event to goose sales here like there will be in other major markets (yes, I checked again just now)

 

But.

 

The Flash        1:30pm:                          394/22203 [1.77% sold]

 

The Batman  12:45pm:                          1693/32197 [5.26% sold] [475 sold two days prior]

GOTG3          12:40pm:                          1317/29568 [4.45% sold]

(don't bother asking for other MCU films at similar set up times)

 

Now it's already grown about 50 tickets or so in the last hour.  And, like I said, there is no "fan first" event locally so that The Batman comp is somewhat misleading.  Mind, even if I subtract every last seat sold from those early showings, The Batman still had sold 755 tickets at roughly the same time, so that rationale only goes so far.  And it really did start later in the day than The Batman did (after checking looks like Bats started at 7:30am local time, more or less).

 

But will admit I was expecting a bit stronger of a start.  Just have to see where it actually winds up for at the end of Day 1.

Im thinking that the anticipation of seeing Keaton is will have an effect going for it for presales. Have to think the really hyped ones will be buying their tickets early. I wonder if this will have a version of Spidey No Way Home type of attraction: seeing previous bats like Keaton and (although in for a new york minute) Affleck is probably driving some old school/Affleck bat fans as part of the sales. I haven't checked Cineplex yet to see presales, and be interesting to see how they are. I have to think theres some real nostalgia drive there in Sacto.

 

EDIT: Yea there's already some movement in Toronto and Vancouver just a quick check (at least one show already sold over 100 tickets) Some IMAX/AVX/VIP are already doing some presales (which for almost a month out for Cineplex, that doesn't happen often, this looks like theatres were alloting space for this ahead of time). There's enough movement that I might start doing some early tracking. That and Spiderverse probably will keep me busy.

Edited May 23, 2023 by Tinalera

[cooldude97]

6 minutes ago, JayPrimetown said:

Lot of movies in the market for advance sales. Give it some time. Advanced screening at my theater in Miami filled up 30 minutes before showtime. Even Top Gun Maverick didn't do that.

if advanced screening didn't fill up that would be a disaster for a fan-driven film 

[grey ghost]

The only DC related thing that would generate as much hype as No Way Home would be if Ledger never died and he reunited with Bale on the big screen.

 

But Gen X  is just too old to be like "omg Supergirl helping Keaton fight Zod omg!". B89 was before Bill Clinton was president. 

[Tinalera]

5 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

The only DC related thing that would generate as much hype as No Way Home would be if Ledger never died and he reunited with Bale on the big screen.

 

But Gen X  is just too old to be like "omg Supergirl helping Keaton fight Zod omg!". B89 was before Bill Clinton was president. 

Oh I didn't mean it would get nearly the hype, that was a bit of bad speaking on my part, I think it was more just the nostalgia-ness factor of it (and to be fair NWH has a LOT more of all those references to get all hyped over.). Guess I think more of a small love note (not even letter lol). I agree NWH is just in its own stratosphere

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, Krissykins said:

😂

This could potentially deflate AMC sales.

[screambaby]

Seems like the only movies that are going to overperform this  year are mario scream 6 evil dead rises and cocaine bear  lulz

Edit: and the rotj re release

Edited May 24, 2023 by screambaby

[Eric the Minion]

54 minutes ago, jedijake said:

For TLM, are we expecting a weekend multiplier (3-Day) from previews to be in the range of movies like Sonic 2/Beauty and the Beast/Aladdin (11-13X) or more like JWD/AvatarWOW/Lion King (around 8X)?

 

My personal guess would be in between at around 9-10X range. 

10-11x IMO

[Flamengo81]

12 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

The only DC related thing that would generate as much hype as No Way Home would be if Ledger never died and he reunited with Bale on the big screen.

 

But Gen X  is just too old to be like "omg Supergirl helping Keaton fight Zod omg!". B89 was before Bill Clinton was president. 

I think a The Dark Knight 4 with Bale and Nolan back could be enough.

[Eric the Minion]

Just now, screambaby said:

Seems like the only movies that are going to overperform this  year are mario scream 6 evil dead rises and cocaine bear  lulz

It's May.

[screambaby]

Just now, Prince Eric said:

It's May.

Well tracking so far doesn't see much changing for awhile.

 

[TheFlatLannister]

47 minutes ago, cooldude97 said:

How funny would it be after so many months of hyping up indy 5 or flash as the top gun maverick of summer 2023 they both just end up doing only fine, and TLM and spider-verse were the ones to break out

Isn't TLM showing signs of bombing in Asia? That can't be good for WW gross

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, screambaby said:

Well tracking so far doesn't see much changing for awhile.

 

 

Good thing we don't overreact to one or two days of tracking then, right?

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

Good thing we don't overreact to one or two days of tracking then, right?

Oh boy, @Legions of the Galaxy

[screambaby]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

Good thing we don't overreact to one or two days of tracking then, right?

Well I. Don't expect miracle changes either.  

What's the last movie here that didn't track great to start but ended up overperforming?

[Bob Train]

This movie isn't No Way Home. No Way Home had every live-action Spider-Man, and, more importantly, was a Spider-Man movie.

 

The Flash doesn't have Christian Bale, by all accounts the most popular Batman in right now, and is not even a Batman movie. 

 

The Flash's Marvel equivalent would be like a Doctor Strange film that featured Andrew Garfield with Tom Holland having a cameo. Although that may be overselling it.

Edited May 24, 2023 by Bob Train
Clarification

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Oh boy, @Legions of the Galaxy

 

 

 

===

 

Look, I think a great deal can be gleaned from the first 24-36 hours of pre-sales.

 

I ****ALSO**** think this board, at times, waaaaaaaaay overreacts to that info.

 

Both can be true at the same time.

 

And proclaiming "WHELP! Nothing gonna break out this year I guess" qualifies as an All Timer.  IMO.