The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Maggie]

4 minutes ago, raegr said:

are these previews or pure friday numbers??

Previews

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, Borobudur said:

Can I check if SV2 is safe for 100m OW?

I wouldn't say safe, but I expect it to be over. Right now I expect around 110 for it from previews around GOTG3.

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I think it got a little lost with all of the The Flash hysteria, but I personally wasn't that impressed with TLM's Tue locally.

 

But.

 

***BUT!!!!!***

 

But I also personally think that Indy 5 (more a hangover from the previous day), TLM, and Flash all just slaughtered each other locally.   Damn near 1000 tickets between the four big non-TLM films in pre-sales were sold locally (915 ftr) and that had to take a bite out of a normal/expected Tue-before-launch tally.

 

Only film I really was impressed with yesterday was AtSV which I felt had a really nice bounce. No idea if there was an in-built marketing reason or if it was a more synergistic target for people who were also buying Flash tickets (the general CBM crowd).

 

Now I've long been on the train that June 2023 was gonna be something like what happened in May 2019 when a bunch of films slaughtered each other so I'm a little biased/primed for such a conclusion.  

 

That being said, I also expect TLM to rebound nicely today and not just because of EA sales.  Just wanted to note that there could be an extenuating circumstance at play here.

 

(doesn't mean Indy 5 will ever catch up, mind)

I think Indy's older crowd will come in final week and it will do well with walkups. i would not give up so early. Its going to skew way older than family movies or most SH movies. As I keep reiterating Flash will also more of older crowd than average SH movie. 

[Maggie]

1 minute ago, Maggie said:

It's a bloodbath at the BO. How are people supposed to chose with so many options? I feel we'll get a better understanding on how a movie will do on its opening week.

Tickets for Oppenheimer next week too. They'll all canibalize each other

[John Marston]

52 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think Keaton's presence will make it play older. They wont book tickets that early. We have to wait until final week to judge Flash/Indy. That said huge breakout looks unlikely for both of them. 

 

Most of the folks here were not even born when Keaton bats movies were opened. It was absolute insanity back then and both the movies broke OW records back then. So there will be nostalgia in play and its opening during Father's day weekend as well. It will be the movie to go that weekend. 

 

how is Flash comparing to TGM? Isn’t that also an older skewing targeted film? 

[ringedmortality]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

I think Indy's older crowd will come in final week and it will do well with walkups. i would not give up so early. Its going to skew way older than family movies or most SH movies. As I keep reiterating Flash will also more of older crowd than average SH movie. 

 

Not sure if older people are gonna come through for all three movie aimed at them this summer

[keysersoze123]

I think boxoffice is too high on Mermaid. We will know based on how walkups go tomorrow/friday. 

[TheFlatLannister]

Here it is 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

The Flash

 

THURSDAY includes fan screening

 

T-22 *First 24 Hours

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
120	1593	25233	5.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 12:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

 

COMPS

First 24 hours

 

(0.425x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$7.4M THUR Previews

 

(0.699x) of ACROSS THE SPIDERVERSE

??

 

(1.256x) of FAST X

~$9.4M THUR Previews

 

(1.969x) of Transformers Rise of the Beast

??

 

(1.208x) of Indy 5 

??

 

Definitely not the hot start I expected. Don't want to get into any prediction just yet, but yeah $100M+ is going to be an uphill battle

 

[raegr]

guys im so sad. i was really looking forward to flash doing well  

[JWR]

2 minutes ago, raegr said:

guys im so sad. i was really looking forward to flash doing well  

 

It still might.

[el sid]

TLM counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 473 (11 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 361 (21 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 83 (16 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 71 (7 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): still only error reports so I take the 26 sold tickets from Monday (9 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 366 (18 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 698 (22 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 2.112 (plus around 25-50 from the AMC in Arizona).
Ok 40% up since Monday.
Comps: Dolittle (21.8M OW) had 240 sold tickets,
JC (35M) had 655,
Sonic 2 (72.1M) had 1.484
and Minions: The Rise of Gru (107M) had 2.018,
Frozen II (130.3M) had 3.463 sold tickets. I expected ca. 3/5 on Monday and TLM performed a little bit better than that with now 61% of Frozen II = 79.5M plus it's (partly) an original film.
And Lightyear (50.6M) had 1.235 sold tickets = ca. 100M with the help of a better Sunday than normal due to Memorial Day on Monday.
 

So most of my comps still point to over 100M 3-day but the jump till tomorrow shouldn't be too small.

[GOGODanca]

4 minutes ago, raegr said:

guys im so sad. i was really looking forward to flash doing well  

If its as good as everyone says it is then it will do well, Top Gun had the 7th highest OW of 2022 and ended up the #1 domestic grosser, not saying Flash will beat Mario but with all of summer in front of it, it can do very well

[efialtes76]

44 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I disagree. We will see for sure. You have no clue unless you were there at that time. 

I was there at that time and even in Spain,non a mega big market for Batman movies,the fever for Batman was insane!

And so many years later Michael Keaton is still my Batman.

Edited May 24, 2023 by efialtes76

[Menor the Destroyer]

21 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think Indy's older crowd will come in final week and it will do well with walkups. i would not give up so early. Its going to skew way older than family movies or most SH movies. As I keep reiterating Flash will also more of older crowd than average SH movie. 

I don't see why older audience would help with walkups. If anything I would think the opposite. All the movies with crazy walkup surges recently skewed fairly young. Only 2 older skewing blockbusters we had recently were Bond and TGM, Bond had poor walkups and TGM just ok despite having out of this world WOM. Of course both of those movies did have solid legs for Bond and incredible for TGM, so I think a leggy run would be the more realistic bullish case for these (particularly Flash given the buzz) rather than a big late surge for the opening.

Edited May 24, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

I was there at that time and even in Spain,non a mega big market for Batman movies,the fever for Batman was insane!

And so many years later Michael Keaton  is still my Batman.

From a hype perspective Batman 89 >>> Dark Knight. WB marketing just blanketed it everywhere. I personally did not like batman 89 when I saw it as a kid. l liked it better when I watched it as an adult :-)

 

 

[interiorgatordecorator]

so if flash with "best movie ever" marketing could struggle to hit a 100 million ow, what would it have done if it was black-adam tier?

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Menor Reborn said:

I don't see why older audience would help with walkups. If anything I would think the opposite. All the movies with crazy walkup surges recently skewed fairly young. Only 2 older skewing blockbusters we had recently were Bond and TGM, Bond had poor walkups and TGM just ok despite having out of this world WOM. Of course both of those movies did have solid legs for Bond and incredible for TGM, so I think a leggy run would be the more realistic bullish case for this rather than a big late surge for the opening.

Most adults do not plan to see movies 25 days in advance. They will decide closer to release date. I meant it will have good final week barring some other issue. I am not sure if reviews will impact Indy but it might be reviews proof if the core audience are nostalgic for Indy. 

[druv10]

42 minutes ago, jedijake said:

In ALL Asian nations? I've given up on trying to figure out China, but what agenda would Japan and South Korea have against it?

Looks like Ariel being black, unfortunately

[Tinalera]

Little Mermaid

Thurs May 25 Fri May 26 (T-2)

Toronto and Montreal Canada

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Toronto	Thurs	4	27	381	6269	6650	0.0572
	Fri	4	44	883	11683	12566	0.0702
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Montrea	Thurs	4	17	148	4778	4926	0.0300
	Fri	3	28	506	8221	8727	0.0579

 

Mario  comp (T-2)

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Toronto	Thurs	4	27	381	6269	6650	0.0572
	Fri	4	44	883	11683	12566	0.0702
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Montrea	Thurs	4	17	148	4778	4926	0.0300
	Fri	3	28	506	8221	8727	0.0579

 

 

Total Seat Avalablity

 

	T T	T F	M T	M F
Mermaid	6650	12566	4926	8727
Mario	14982	20156	9874	14873
diff	-8332	-7590	-4948	-6146

[cooldude97]

while I'm sure the flash going to do great I'm not sure why people are overestimating how much the older generation is willing to sit through a CGI fest Flash movie to see 20 minutes of Michael Keaton, especially with an Indiana jones movie 2 weeks after that looks like would appeal to them more