The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[keysersoze123]

5 hours ago, MrPink said:

 

No. Light the beam

[TwoMisfits]

Real quick b/c I have DnD tonight...for those wondering about weekend Mario sets, my locals are giving Mario all PLFs again and setting at 4 screens and 3 screens...so there is some show droppage, but not enough to affect how the weekend will go.

 

So, put me on the "gonna have another great hold" track.

 

As for the rest, all the opens are single screened and the drops are Jesus, Mafia Mama (seems like it only had a 1 week deal) and some foreign material, so JW4 and DnD hold on, so they should have a chance for continued legs...

Edited April 18, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[ZackM]

From last night:

 

 

The IMAX Guardians of the Galaxy Marathon Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 days
4/17/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	57	57	3,801	17,116	22.21%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	0	0	0
ATP
$46.35

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 days
	Last Day
Showings Added	6,870
Seats Added	1,119,673
Seats Sold	98,230
4/17/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	431	6,870	98,230	1,119,673	8.77%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	3	22	85	183
ATP
$17.79

 

 

 

Don't really know how to factor the IMAX marathon into the comps, so I'm just going to ignore them.

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 Comps
	Ant-Man: Quantumania		Black Panther: WF		Thor: Love & Thunder
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10
T-11
T-12
T-13
T-14
T-15
T-16
T-17	$12.8	$12.6	$15.9	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8

 

 

Edited April 20, 2023 by ZackM

[keysersoze123]

@ZackM I would ignore the Imax marathon as they have limited growth potential and will at best gross 500K. its not played everywhere and I think Alpha will over index big time for these shows.  

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

@ZackM I would ignore the Imax marathon as they have limited growth potential and will at best gross 500K. its not played everywhere and I think Alpha will over index big time for these shows.  

If he added for BP2 & T4 then he should add imo otherwise ignore.

[Porthos]

20 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-31 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	182	27068	27738	670	2.42%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

9

 

T-31 Comp:

	%		Sold T-31	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	46.14		43	1452		0/171	22337/23789	6.10%		33839	1.98%		8.31m
L&T	8.44		284	7934		0/237	24680/32614	24.33%		16962	3.95%		2.45m
BP2	7.99		267	8384		2/301	29553/37937	22.10%		16800	3.99%		2.24m
A2	17.08		261	3922		0/184	22207/26129	15.01%		8986	7.46%		2.90m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     100/10143  [0.99% sold]
Matinee:    14/3532  [0.40% | 2.09% of all tickets sold]

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-30 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	182	27060	27738	678	2.44%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

8

 

T-30 Comp:

%

Sold T-30

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

JWD

46.00

22

1474

0/171

22312/23786

6.20%

33839

2.00%

8.28m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     101/10143  [1.00% sold]
Matinee:    14/3532  [0.40% | 2.06% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

20 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-17 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	206	26211	29644	3433	11.58%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

73

 

T-17 Comps:

	%		Sold T-17	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	34.81		226	9861		0/329	31047/40908	24.11%		21117	16.26%		12.53m
L&T	56.89		158	6034		0/228	25566/31600	19.09%		16962	20.24%		16.50m
Bats	93.44		156	3674		0/248	28624/32298	11.38%		11757	29.20%		20.18m
BP2	52.22		146	6574		1/294	30450/37024	17.76%		16800	20.43%		14.62m
AM3	78.20		99	4390		0/235	28166/32556	13.48%		10475	32.77%		13.69m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

Regal:      640/11051  [5.79% sold]
Matinee:    107/3555  [3.01% | 3.12% of all tickets sold]
3D:            381/5498  [6.93% | 11.10% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

FWIW, Sacramentans miiiiight have been pre-occupied tonight/had other things on their minds than buying movie tickets for a film two plus weeks out.

 

Still, not exactly encouraging.

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-16 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	203	25617	29095	3478	11.95%

 

Total Showings Removed Today	3
Total Seats Removed Today	549
Total Net Seats Sold Today	45

* NOTE:  One of the local theaters removed GOTG3 from one of its screens, which at the time had 32 tickets sold across three showings - this reduced the amount of sales from 77 seats sold to a net of 45.

 

T-16 Comps:

	%		Sold T-16	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	34.69		166	10027		0/351	32409/42436	23.63%		21117	16.47%		12.49m
L&T	56.06		170	6204		0/228	25396/31600	19.63%		16962	20.50%		16.26m
Bats	91.24		138	3812		0/280	30966/34778	10.96%		11757	29.58%		19.71m
BP2	51.88		130	6704		1/294	30320/37024	18.11%		16800	20.70%		14.53m
AM3	77.91		74	4464		0/239	28513/32977	13.54%		10475	33.20%		13.63m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       657/11051  [5.95% sold]
Matinee:    109/3372  [3.23% | 3.13% of all tickets sold]
3D:            384/5498  [6.98% | 11.04% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

*hits Submit Reply*

*closes window and logs out*

*prepares to watch season finale of Mando*

*doesn't plan on returning to this thread for 24 hours*

 

...

 

Okay, it's not nearly as bad as it looks (I can't resist to playing to the crowd on occasion).  As I noted under one of info boxes, a local theater removed one the screens GOTG3 was on.  That screen had sold 32 tickets across three showings (3 | 29 | 0).  Losing 32 seats sold in the grand scheme of things will be a rounding error for a film of this size when all is said and done, but does play merry hell with day to day pace.

 

On the other hand, even the non net 77 tickets sold (45 +32) isn't exactly great. Still... had to be noted why it was so low today.

 

Edited April 19, 2023 by Porthos

[vafrow]

Looking at my theatre counts for the weekend of April 28th in southern Ontario, because Cineplex has added screenings up until the Thursday previews date. I checked listings of a 100Km radius of me (Milton), which captures the entirety of the greater Toronto area and into a chunk of the southwestern region. There's 40 theatres in the radius. Something not getting the Thursday previews doesn't mean it won't get added for Friday showings, but, it's usually more the exception than the rule. This weekend may be more unpredictable though  and the chain may be wishing to wait and see performance and tracking before allocating screens for such an unpredictable weekend.

 

Are You There God - 20 theatres 

Big George - 14 theatres

Sisu - 7 theatres 

Polite Society - 6 theatres 

 

I'm disappointed that Polite Society is getting so few screens right now. This region has a massive South Asian population as well. This should be a market that it would overindex. I'm surprised that not even AYTGIMM isn't getting all theatres. I thought that was a sure bet.

 

 

 

 

[Tinalera]

4 hours ago, vafrow said:

Looking at my theatre counts for the weekend of April 28th in southern Ontario, because Cineplex has added screenings up until the Thursday previews date. I checked listings of a 100Km radius of me (Milton), which captures the entirety of the greater Toronto area and into a chunk of the southwestern region. There's 40 theatres in the radius. Something not getting the Thursday previews doesn't mean it won't get added for Friday showings, but, it's usually more the exception than the rule. This weekend may be more unpredictable though  and the chain may be wishing to wait and see performance and tracking before allocating screens for such an unpredictable weekend.

 

Are You There God - 20 theatres 

Big George - 14 theatres

Sisu - 7 theatres 

Polite Society - 6 theatres 

 

I'm disappointed that Polite Society is getting so few screens right now. This region has a massive South Asian population as well. This should be a market that it would overindex. I'm surprised that not even AYTGIMM isn't getting all theatres. I thought that was a sure bet.

 

 

 

 

I did Southwest Ontario for awhile (London, Kitchener, Waterloo ect) and it really is a wild west when it came to counts sometimes. Theatres would have thurs but not friday shows, friday but not thursday, and some real interesting stuff where counts everywhere else would be low, but ONE theatre would have amazingly high (and vise versa).  Thats awesome you're covering that area!

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, Tinalera said:

I did Southwest Ontario for awhile (London, Kitchener, Waterloo ect) and it really is a wild west when it came to counts sometimes. Theatres would have thurs but not friday shows, friday but not thursday, and some real interesting stuff where counts everywhere else would be low, but ONE theatre would have amazingly high (and vise versa).  Thats awesome you're covering that area!

 

I'm not doing full modeling, but wanted to look at this release weekend in particular because it seems like it's the most difficult choice for theatres (although in retrospect, this past weekend would have been good to analyze). There's four very different films to consider. It's also followed by GOTG3 and they're not going to want to lock in too many screens for a two week commitment.

[keysersoze123]

Evil Dead Rises MTC1

Previews - 21642/141104 358689.74 930 shows

Friday - 23768/411930 378470.06 2731 shows

 

Still show count for thursday is low considering the sales but friday is good. I expect another growth today in shows and based on growth pattern I am feeling good about 3m previews and 20m+ OW. 

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Evil Dead Rises MTC1

Previews - 21642/141104 358689.74 930 shows

Friday - 23768/411930 378470.06 2731 shows

 

Still show count for thursday is low considering the sales but friday is good. I expect another growth today in shows and based on growth pattern I am feeling good about 3m previews and 20m+ OW. 

Show count may be low but like it has 140k seats available, I believe will close 200k by release.

 

It is gonna do like 60-70K, so more than enough.

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

Just now, kayumanggi said:

 

 

Ticket Value:

• 80% believe that seeing a movie in a theater is a reasonably priced option for bringing together community, family and friends.
• 85% are excited about their recent theatrical experiences.
• 72% attend premium large-format (PLF) screens if they feel it will enhance a particular movie’s experience, while 13% will only buy tickets to movies on PLF screens.
• 69% will look for early showtimes or special days to take advantage of discounted pricing.
• 66% are still most likely to see movies on the weekends.
• 67% feel there is a wide variety of choices at the cinema this summer.
• 64% indicate their theater attendance wouldn’t decrease in an economic downturn, and that they would give up other entertainment activities first.

Concessions Value:

• 96% regularly buy concessions at the movies.
• 92% share their concessions with family and friends.
• 76% contend that the food at dine-in theaters is comparable to the food they would find at a restaurant.
• 58% indicate that price is not a factor in their decision to buy concessions.
• 56% buy concessions while taking advantage of rewards programs for refills and upgrades.

[Ryan Reynolds]

96% buy concessions, i don't believe that

[kayumanggi]

 

[Tinalera]

Guardians Of The Galaxy 3

Thurs May 4 and Fri May 5 (T-16)

Toronto and Montreal Canada

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Toronto	Thurs	4	43	869	6106	6975	0.1245
	Fri	4	50	569	9773	10342	0.0550
Montreal		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
	Thurs	3	18	616	4303	4919	0.1252
	fri	4	25	406	6170	6576	0.0617

 

 

I have a bit of a gap for Antman, My next Antman is for about T-10 Toronto/Montreal, so a week gap. Next cycle (so around T-14)  Ill be getting into DnD comps and Antman.

 

Observations though in general: GOTG has kind of stalled, not much movement right now, have to see how next few days bring, but its kind of just gone quiet. 

[TheFlatLannister]

21 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Evil Dead Rise

 

Thursday

ORLANDO REGION

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
27	745	3726	19.9%

^{*Numbers taken as of 5:00pm EST}

 

*4 New Showings Added Today 

*104 Seats Sold Today

 

Comps: 

The Pope's Exorcist (2.823x) ~$2.4M THUR 

 

More good news. Show count continues to increase. It's catching up with recent horror releases

 

prediction still: $2.5M THUR

Evil Dead Rise

 

Thursday

ORLANDO REGION

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
37	859	5528	15.5%

^{*Numbers taken as of 3:00pm EST}

 

*10 New Showings Added Today 

*114 Seats Sold Today

 

Comps: 

The Pope's Exorcist (3.254x) ~$2.8M THUR 

 

-Scream 6 (7.8x IM) : $23M OW

 

prediction: $3M THUR $23M OW

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

49 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Evil Dead Rise

 

Thursday

ORLANDO REGION

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
37	859	5528	15.5%

^{*Numbers taken as of 3:00pm EST}

 

*10 New Showings Added Today 

*114 Seats Sold Today

 

Comps: 

The Pope's Exorcist (3.254x) ~$2.8M THUR 

 

-Scream 6 (7.8x IM) : $23M OW

 

prediction: $3M THUR $23M OW

 

Glad to see these numbers, was looking at my local theater’s showtimes for this and they were worryingly low aside from Dolby. Maybe walk ups will help with WOM. 

Edited April 19, 2023 by AMC Theaters Enjoyer

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Beau is Afraid T-2: 16.25% Awareness, 4.78 Interest

Book Club: The Next Chapter T-16: 19.06%, 4.97

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem T-107: 30.5%, 5.7

 

Chevalier T-2: 17.18% Awareness, 4.62 Interest

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 22% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 8% chance of 10M

 

The Covenant T-2: 30.42% Awareness, 5.65 Interest

Final Awareness: 37% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 66% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 31% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 50% chance of 10M

 

Evil Dead Rise T-2: 39.71% Awareness, 5.60 Interest

Final Awareness: 37% chance of 10M, 3% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 66% chance of 10M, 44% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 44% chance of 10M, 11% chance of 20M

Horror Interest: 50% chance of 10M, 33% chance of 20M

 

Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret T-9: 22.97% Awareness, 5.04 Interest

Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 42% chance of 10M

Known IP Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Known IP Interest: 100% chance of 30M

 

Big George Foreman T-9: 31.56% Awareness, 5.45 Interest

Final Awareness: 37% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 42% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 31% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 27% chance of 10M

 

Fast X T-30: 52.48% Awareness, 6.22 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 90% chance of 50M, 70% chance of 70M, 40% chance of 100M

T-30 Interest: 100% chance of 40M, 92% chance of 50M, 75% chance of 70M, 58% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 70M, 50% chance of 100M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 70M, 67% chance of 100M