The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Tinalera]

So Deadline saying 2.3 Million Thurs for Crawdads, Paws of Fury 505 K. 

 

Paws of Fury-any chance this does under 5 for Thurs/Fri OD? I mean I think that's low, but that certainly seems to reach to single digit opening territory

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

So Deadline saying 2.3 Million Thurs for Crawdads, Paws of Fury 505 K. 

 

Paws of Fury-any chance this does under 5 for Thurs/Fri OD? I mean I think that's low, but that certainly seems to reach to single digit opening territory

 

Under 5? It'll be under 3 for OD. 

[Tinalera]

1 minute ago, StormbreakerXXR said:

 

Under 5? It'll be under 3 for OD. 

And here I thought i was going out on a limb/pushing it for Under 5....Under 3 that's not really be a good look

[Shawn Robbins]

2 hours ago, StormbreakerXXR said:

 He’s talking about Bullet Train.

 

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

 

Yes, when I wrote "7/70" I was referring to 7m Previews/70m Opening Weekend, but now that I look at it, I realize it might have looked like 7m OW/70m DOM.  

Apologies for the confusion there, Shawn.

(FWIW, I do have edge cases as I sometimes try to guess at movies with super long pre-sale windows or ones where it could go either way — but generally I try to stick to something clearing 70m on the OW.  And if I sometimes track a few films I wouldn't normally?  Well it's better that than being caught by surprise with something over-performing)

[Cmasterclay]

40m starting to look back on the table for Nope if it gets good reviews in the final week.

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric Odinson said:

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	493	13040	3.78%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 41

 

Comp

0.467x of F9 T-7 (3.32M)

0.763x of Space Jam 2 T-7 (10M)

0.803x of Halloween Kills T-7 (3.89M)

0.980x of Scream T-7 (3.43M)

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	544	13040	4.17%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 51

 

Comp

0.477x of F9 T-6 (3.38M)

0.762x of Space Jam 2 T-6 (9.98M)

0.800x of Halloween Kills T-6 (3.88M)

0.994x of Scream T-6 (3.48M)

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric Odinson said:

DC League of Super Pets Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	42	28	6629	0.42%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 4

 

Comp

0.737x of Jungle Cruise T-14 (1.99M)

0.228x of Minions 2 T-14 (2.45M)

DC League of Super Pets Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	42	33	6629	0.50%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 5

 

Comp

0.717x of Jungle Cruise T-13 (1.94M)

0.229x of Minions 2 T-13 (2.46M)

[charlie Jatinder]

16 minutes ago, Eric Odinson said:

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	544	13040	4.17%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 51

 

Comp

0.477x of F9 T-6 (3.38M)

0.762x of Space Jam 2 T-6 (9.98M)

0.800x of Halloween Kills T-6 (3.88M)

0.994x of Scream T-6 (3.48M)

I know Nope will be backloaded but Philly having Nope sub $4M ain't great look. Though I suppose if Eric use comps Porthos is using, those may be bigger.

[Potiki]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I know Nope will be backloaded but Philly having Nope sub $4M ain't great look. Though I suppose if Eric use comps Porthos is using, those may be bigger.

Nope on par with Scream and under Halloween Kills in Philly seems like a bad sign considering a black directed and black cast should be over indexing, I know there might have been a fan rush given scream and halloween are franchises but Jordan Peele I feel is a pretty decent sell for a horror movie at this point, hopefully it has a strong last few days sales. 

Edited July 16, 2022 by Potiki

[charlie Jatinder]

Harkins Friday

 

Crawdads - 7982/35839 (206 showings) $79,551

 

For THU Harkins was 1.55%. FRI shall be around 1.6-1.7 ish. That will give $4.7-5M.

 

Paws of Fury - 3736/29852 (175 showings) $35,979

 

THU was 2.05%. FRI shall be around 2.1%. That will give $1.7M ish.

Edited July 16, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

On 7/15/2022 at 2:21 AM, Porthos said:

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	86	13078	13691	613	4.48%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

58

 

T-7 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	118.34		52	518		0/87	14606/15124	3.43%		2352	26.06%		4.85m
LTBC	37.26		179	1645		0/173	26553/28198	5.83%		7712	7.95%		4.32m
NTTD	47.08		130	1302		0/144	21051/22353	5.82%		3737	16.40%		2.92m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-7 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	42.72		91	1414		0/86	11869/13283	10.65%		4407	13.71%		3.18m
Nope (adj)	—		60	604		0/72	10876/11480	5.26%		—	—		—

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Nope (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:      97/3959  [2.45% sold]
Matinee:    23/859  [2.68% | 3.75% of all tickets sold]

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	86	13010	13691	681	4.97%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

68

 

T-6 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	122.92		36	554		0/87	14570/15124	3.66%		2352	28.95%		5.04m
LTBC	37.32		180	1825		0/173	26373/28198	6.47%		7712	8.83%		4.33m
NTTD	47.72		125	1427		0/145	21026/22453	6.36%		3737	18.22%		2.96m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-6 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	44.88		79	1493		0/87	11891/13384	11.16%		4407	15.20%		3.34m
Nope (adj)	—		66	670		0/72	10810/11480	5.84%		—	—		—

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Nope (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:     117/3959  [2.96% sold]
Matinee:    25/859  [2.91% | 3.67% of all tickets sold]

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	86	13010	13691	681	4.97%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

68

 

T-6 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	122.92		36	554		0/87	14570/15124	3.66%		2352	28.95%		5.04m
LTBC	37.32		180	1825		0/173	26373/28198	6.47%		7712	8.83%		4.33m
NTTD	47.72		125	1427		0/145	21026/22453	6.36%		3737	18.22%		2.96m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-6 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	44.88		79	1493		0/87	11891/13384	11.16%		4407	15.20%		3.34m
Nope (adj)	—		66	670		0/72	10810/11480	5.84%		—	—		—

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Nope (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:     117/3959  [2.96% sold]
Matinee:    25/859  [2.91% | 3.67% of all tickets sold]

Can you start Halloween & Scream comp @Porthos or you didn't track it?

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/15/2022 at 9:11 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Easter Sunday	T-20	Jax	6	15	0	5	2,232	0.22%
		Phx	3	9	0	0	1,134	0.00%
		Ral	7	16	0	0	1,976	0.00%
	Total		16	40	0	5	5,342	0.09%
Nope	T-6	Jax	6	49	17	142	8,253	1.72%
		Phx	6	20	6	211	4,344	4.86%
		Ral	8	28	31	227	3,670	6.19%
	Total		20	97	54	580	16,267	3.57%
Super Pets	T-13	Jax	6	38	2	8	4,934	0.16%
		Phx	5	23	3	13	3,483	0.37%
		Ral	7	24	0	7	3,404	0.21%
	Total		18	85	5	28	11,821	0.24%
Vengeance	T-13	Jax	3	4	0	2	286	0.70%
		Phx	3	6	2	2	850	0.24%
		Ral	4	4	0	0	317	0.00%
	Total		10	14	2	4	1,453	0.28%

 

Nope T-6 comps

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - NTTD - missed

 - Suicide Squad - 1.36x (5.59m)

 - F9 - .557x (3.95m)

 - Morbius - .69x (3.95m)

 - Dune - missed

 - Halloween Kills - missed

 

Super Pets T-13 comps

 - Minions 2 - .098x (1.05m)

 - Sonic 2 - .078x (387k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Easter Sunday	T-19	Jax	6	15	0	5	2,232	0.22%
		Phx	4	12	2	2	1,503	0.13%
		Ral	7	15	0	0	1,695	0.00%
	Total		17	42	2	7	5,430	0.13%
Nope	T-5	Jax	6	49	10	152	8,253	1.84%
		Phx	6	20	14	225	4,344	5.18%
		Ral	8	28	24	251	3,670	6.84%
	Total		20	97	48	628	16,267	3.86%
Super Pets	T-12	Jax	6	38	0	8	4,934	0.16%
		Phx	5	23	2	15	3,483	0.43%
		Ral	7	24	0	7	3,404	0.21%
	Total		18	85	2	30	11,821	0.25%
Vengeance	T-12	Jax	3	4	0	2	286	0.70%
		Phx	4	8	-2	0	992	0.00%
		Ral	4	4	0	0	317	0.00%
	Total		11	16	-2	2	1,595	0.13%

 

Nope T-5 comps

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - NTTD - missed

 - Suicide Squad - 1.33x (5.44m)

 - F9 - .551x (3.91m)

 - Morbius - .7x (4m)

 - Dune - missed

 - Halloween Kills - missed

 

Super Pets T-12 comps

 - Minions 2 - .098x (1.05m)

 - Sonic 2 - .079x (395k)

 

🥱

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Crawdads (Fri)	PLF	4	47	85	520	16.35%	$13.89	$1,180.43
		Standard	60	270	711	6,879	10.34%	$11.03	$7,839.20
	Total		64	317	796	7,399	10.76%	$11.33	$9,019.63
T-6	Nope	PLF	21	19	162	5,307	3.05%	$15.58	$2,523.95
		Standard	22	5	62	2,875	2.16%	$10.87	$673.78
	Total		43	24	224	8,182	2.74%	$14.28	$3,197.73

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Crawdads (Fri)	N	32	178	429	3,837	11.18%	$12.83	$5,505.63
		Y	32	139	367	3,562	10.30%	$9.57	$3,514.00
	Total		64	317	796	7,399	10.76%	$11.33	$9,019.63
T-0	Paws of Fury (Fri)	N	20	91	140	2,034	6.88%	$11.77	$1,648.04
		Y	30	151	235	3,092	7.60%	$8.84	$2,078.30
	Total		50	242	375	5,126	7.32%	$9.94	$3,726.34
T-6	Nope	N	33	22	179	6,279	2.85%	$15.17	$2,715.96
		Y	10	2	45	1,903	2.36%	$10.71	$481.77
	Total		43	24	224	8,182	2.74%	$14.28	$3,197.73

 

Nope T-6 comps

 - TG2 - .097x (1.42m)

 - FB3 - .279x (1.68m)

 - JW3 - missed

 

Crawdads Fri T-0 unadjusted comps

 - Elvis - .326x (3.02m)

 - Morbius - .323x (3.74m)

 

Paws of Fury Fri T-0 unadjusted comps

 - Minions - .042x (1.56m)

 - FB3 - .113x (1.58m)

 

Now that we have preview numbers...

 

Crawdads adjusted comps

 - Elvis - 5.86m

 - Morbius - 5.79m

 

Paws adjusted comps

 - Minions - 2.63m

 

For true Friday predictions, I'll go with 5.8m for Crawdads and 2.9m for Paws.

 

20 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Crawdads (Sat)	PLF	4	31	31	520	5.96%	$12.83	$397.87
		Standard	60	413	413	7,058	5.85%	$10.56	$4,359.59
	Total		64	444	444	7,578	5.86%	$10.72	$4,757.46

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Crawdads (Sat)	N	33	145	145	4,013	3.61%	$13.09	$1,897.85
		Y	31	299	299	3,565	8.39%	$9.56	$2,859.61
	Total		64	444	444	7,578	5.86%	$10.72	$4,757.46
T-1	Paws of Fury (Sat)	N	20	11	11	2,034	0.54%	$12.25	$134.77
		Y	30	124	124	3,051	4.06%	$9.18	$1,138.91
	Total		50	135	135	5,085	2.65%	$9.43	$1,273.68

 

Paws Sat T-1 unadjusted comp

 - Minions - 1.57m

 

Both are pretty close to their Friday T-1 sales (479 and 133 respectively).  

 

Using Minions growth rate change from Fri to Sat, Paws could end around 420 tickets with an adjusted Saturday comp of 4.03m.

 

I'll target around 850 sold for Crawdads, which would be comp out to 6.47m adjusted.

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Crawdads (Sat)	PLF	4	44	75	520	14.42%	$13.13	$984.41
		Standard	62	326	739	7,246	10.20%	$10.49	$7,752.43
	Total		66	370	814	7,766	10.48%	$10.73	$8,736.84
T-5	Nope	PLF	21	39	201	5,307	3.79%	$15.60	$3,135.84
		Standard	22	6	68	2,875	2.37%	$10.77	$732.24
	Total		43	45	269	8,182	3.29%	$14.38	$3,868.08

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Crawdads (Sat)	N	35	109	254	4,201	6.05%	$13.37	$3,396.88
		Y	31	261	560	3,565	15.71%	$9.54	$5,339.96
	Total		66	370	814	7,766	10.48%	$10.73	$8,736.84
T-0	Paws of Fury (Sat)	N	20	31	42	2,034	2.06%	$12.22	$513.40
		Y	30	258	382	3,051	12.52%	$9.02	$3,445.55
	Total		50	289	424	5,085	8.34%	$9.34	$3,958.95
T-5	Nope	N	33	38	217	6,279	3.46%	$15.28	$3,316.48
		Y	10	7	52	1,903	2.73%	$10.61	$551.60
	Total		43	45	269	8,182	3.29%	$14.38	$3,868.08

 

Early numbers for Friday are very disappointing .  I think for Paws of Fury the sales were just too low and made the multipliers wacky (that and only having Minions available as a comp).  For Crawdads, I used the full preview gross instead of true Thursday due to Santikos not having any EA shows.  If I backed that down to the 2m, the Elvis adjusted comp for Friday drops to 5.09m and Morbius to 5.04m.  Moving forward though!

 

Nope T-5 comps

 - TG2 - missed

 - FB3 - missed

 - JW3 - missed

 

For final Saturday presales, Paws came in almost exactly at my number, but Crawdads was on the lighter side.  

 

Crawdads Sat unadjusted comp

 - Elvis - .325x (3.23m)

 

Paws Sat unadjusted comp

 - Minions - .067x (2.185m)

 

Adjusting for the current estimates, Paws would be 2.6m and Crawdads would be 5.23m.  

[Tinalera]

Nope t-6(fri t-0)

SW/Toronto Ontario 

 

NOPE	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	20	66	201	14789	14990	0.013408939
Fri	5	20	224	6336	6560	0.034146341

 

Comps (For what they're worth)

x1.070 Lightyear(802 thousand Canada only, 21.4 Million US/Canada)

x.4544 Minions 2(1.46 million Canada only, 21.81 US/Canada)

 

Should start having comps like JW3, Thor4 tomorrow

[katnisscinnaplex]

33 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Crawdads (Sat)	PLF	4	44	75	520	14.42%	$13.13	$984.41
		Standard	62	326	739	7,246	10.20%	$10.49	$7,752.43
	Total		66	370	814	7,766	10.48%	$10.73	$8,736.84
T-5	Nope	PLF	21	39	201	5,307	3.79%	$15.60	$3,135.84
		Standard	22	6	68	2,875	2.37%	$10.77	$732.24
	Total		43	45	269	8,182	3.29%	$14.38	$3,868.08

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Crawdads (Sat)	N	35	109	254	4,201	6.05%	$13.37	$3,396.88
		Y	31	261	560	3,565	15.71%	$9.54	$5,339.96
	Total		66	370	814	7,766	10.48%	$10.73	$8,736.84
T-0	Paws of Fury (Sat)	N	20	31	42	2,034	2.06%	$12.22	$513.40
		Y	30	258	382	3,051	12.52%	$9.02	$3,445.55
	Total		50	289	424	5,085	8.34%	$9.34	$3,958.95
T-5	Nope	N	33	38	217	6,279	3.46%	$15.28	$3,316.48
		Y	10	7	52	1,903	2.73%	$10.61	$551.60
	Total		43	45	269	8,182	3.29%	$14.38	$3,868.08

 

Early numbers for Friday are very disappointing .  I think for Paws of Fury the sales were just too low and made the multipliers wacky (that and only having Minions available as a comp).  For Crawdads, I used the full preview gross instead of true Thursday due to Santikos not having any EA shows.  If I backed that down to the 2m, the Elvis adjusted comp for Friday drops to 5.09m and Morbius to 5.04m.  Moving forward though!

 

Nope T-5 comps

 - TG2 - missed

 - FB3 - missed

 - JW3 - missed

 

For final Saturday presales, Paws came in almost exactly at my number, but Crawdads was on the lighter side.  

 

Crawdads Sat unadjusted comp

 - Elvis - .325x (3.23m)

 

Paws Sat unadjusted comp

 - Minions - .067x (2.185m)

 

Adjusting for the current estimates, Paws would be 2.6m and Crawdads would be 5.23m.  

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Crawdads (Sun)	PLF	4	38	38	520	7.31%	$12.76	$485.02
		Standard	62	288	288	7,178	4.01%	$10.20	$2,938.18
	Total		66	326	326	7,698	4.23%	$10.50	$3,423.20

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Crawdads (Sun)	N	35	72	72	4,133	1.74%	$13.24	$953.22
		Y	31	254	254	3,565	7.12%	$9.72	$2,469.98
	Total		66	326	326	7,698	4.23%	$10.50	$3,423.20
T-1	Paws of Fury (Sun)	N	20	4	4	2,034	0.20%	$11.91	$47.64
		Y	30	78	78	3,051	2.56%	$9.17	$714.90
	Total		50	82	82	5,085	1.61%	$9.30	$762.54

 

I don't have any T-1 comps for either, but I'll try to do some hypotheticals.  I'll guess that Paws ends with ~275 tickets sold for an adjusted 1.73m.  For Crawdads, I'm hoping to see somewhere around 615 tickets that would put it at an adjusted 3.8m for Sunday.  

[Porthos]

7 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Can you start Halloween & Scream comp @Porthos or you didn't track it?

 

Don't have either, sorry.

 

(in fact one of the reasons I decided to track Nope was to finally get a horror comp into the post 2020 system, just in case I do decide to track Halloween Ends or other horror flicks on the horizon)

[Tinalera]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2022/07/16/box-office-where-the-crawdads-sing-nabs-solid-7-million-friday-as-paws-of-fury-bombs/#:~:text=Hollywood %26 Entertainment-,Box Office%3A 'Where The Crawdads Sing' Nabs Solid %247.3,As 'Paws Of Fury' Bombs&text=I cover the film industry.

 

TLDR Crawdads 7 million Friday with Thursday.......Paws......2.4 million....

 

@StormbreakerXXR (and anyone else who called under 3)....you called it.

[vale9001]

When you said "4M true friday" about something you mean 4M without the previews? 

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

When you said "4M true friday" about something you mean 4M without the previews? 

 

Yes