The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[BruiseCruise]

13 minutes ago, snarkmachine said:

15-25 for Lost City seems on the low end? Hope it can pick up. Anyone have any idea about the budget? Bullock and Pitt don't come cheap.

$ 74 million

[Derpity]

28 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Future Releases

 

T-1 Week

Batman Full (Tue-Sun) - 125,394 (3,125)

  - Spider-Man - 135,877 (3,146)

  - Eternals - 71,800 (2,852)

 

I don't have Black Widow T-1, but its final count was 156,781 in 3,409 theaters.

 

So 3-hour runtime not diminishing its showings all that much. Greatly helped by the absence of anything else to show.

[excel1]

28 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Ukraine is going to domiinate social media for the next couple of weeks and probably beyond.

 

 

Twitter is already moving on. Initial outrage was waned. Putin supposedly open to peace talks. Hopefully fighting ends soon.

[excel1]

BoxOfficePro's tracking is frankly laughable. Always sad to see out of date models fail to adjust, always a step behind.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

23 minutes ago, excel1 said:

Always sad to see out of date models fail to adjust….

This is sad indeed….

 

[cax16]

The last day I tracked joker was just before midnight on the day before previews, it had sold 7384 tickets at the 24 nearest locations to me. Batman was at 9427( as of yesterday)from the same theatres at this point. I know it’s not a really great comparison but it’s the only numbers I have from before. Should help going forward for other movies though. 

Edited February 25, 2022 by cax16

[ThatWaluigiDude]

1 hour ago, excel1 said:

 

Twitter is already moving on. Initial outrage was waned. Putin supposedly open to peace talks. Hopefully fighting ends soon.

Well, you surely are optimistic, I'll give that

[Porthos]

7 hours ago, Derby Legion said:

Been thinking about this for a while — I know that presentation real estate isn’t free, but I think a “final tickets sold” column could be pretty useful @Porthos. Makes it much easier to tell at a glance how many were sold from the present day to the end compared to how many have been sold recently, and what the implications will be if it runs at X% pace.

 

Aye, that's the main problem right there.  On desktop, especially on larger resolutions, the width of the current chart isn't that big of a problem.  On iPad though, I'm already running into the right margin (in horizontal mode) and I've been occasionally adjusting things to try to keep it that way.  If I add one more column, I fear it might "break" and start to look ugly.

 

It's an idea though and I'll give it some thought. If I try to sit down and work it out, probably wouldn't be until after The Batman's run unless I can find something easy to tweak it so it still looks nice on various formats (and, no, eliminating info I already present is not on the cards).

[DAJK]

2 hours ago, excel1 said:

BoxOfficePro's tracking is frankly laughable. Always sad to see out of date models fail to adjust, always a step behind.

someone doesn't like that Batman went down  

[Notthereverseflash24]

11 minutes ago, DAJK said:

someone doesn't like that Batman went down  

Heroes don't do that.

[efialtes76]

15 minutes ago, DAJK said:

someone doesn't like that Batman went down  

BoxOfficePro's tracking is usually laughable...

Edited February 25, 2022 by efialtes76

[keysersoze123]

15 hours ago, ZackM said:

The Batman Alpha Chain Fan First Premiere Exclusively In IMAX Seat Report: T-5 days
2/24/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	181	182	46,758	56,572	82.65%
ATP
$23.36

 

 

 

The Batman Alpha Chain Investor Connect Screening Seat Report: T-6 days
2/24/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	205	206	26,657	39,928	66.76%
ATP
$19.37

 

 

 

The Batman Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	6	80	7	9
Seats Added	0	1,566	9,387	599	997
Seats Sold	4,203	4,152	4,958	3,337	2,810
2/24/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	429	5,358	139,002	932,434	14.91%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	9	45	158	303
ATP
$16.95

 

Thursday Only:

.235x NWH T-7

 

Thursday Only ATP Weighted:

.270x NWH T-7

 

All Previews:

.359x NWH T-7

 

All Previews ATP Weighted:

.455x NWH T-7

 

 

Thank you @ZackM. Alpha dominates tuesday overall BO. tad over 50% shows but BO probably in 60%+. I am thinking 2.2m if everything sellouts. Wednesday its about 40% of shows and I feel BO would be similar. Thinking 1.5m wednesday.

 

BW at Alpha was at  86623/542525 2937 shows (T-7). That already had review boost. I definitely think high teens is possible with Strong reviews and big final week burst once the floodgates open. So thinking overall previews in low to mid 20s(if it really takes off next week). 

 

@ZackM can you look at friday again today or tomorrow. Just want to see how close is it to thursday PS. 

Edited February 25, 2022 by keysersoze123

[Porthos]

54 minutes ago, DAJK said:

someone doesn't like that Batman went down  

 

42 minutes ago, Notthereverseflash24 said:

Heroes don't do that.

 

[Porthos]

40 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

BoxOfficePro's tracking is usually laughable...

 

Not really?  It's been more hit and miss than usual lately thanks to the pandemic upending shit, but on the whole they're pretty solid.  Much more solid than most industry tracking.

 

[ThatWaluigiDude]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Not really?  It's been more hit and miss than usual lately thanks to the pandemic upending shit, but on the whole they're pretty solid.  Much more solid than most industry tracking.

 

To be fair, is hard not to miss with the gigantic ranges they usually give lol

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

To be fair, is hard not to miss with the gigantic ranges they usually give lol

 

No, I don't think that's fair criticism at all.  For one thing, Shawn once went into detail about the differences between BOP's tracking and most other industry tracking in the old thread, but I don't feel like tracking it down right now  (no pun intended). 

 

More to the point though, the entire industry is still undergoing the aftershocks of the pandemic so ANY tracking/forecasting done in 2021 was almost always going to be "unreliable", especially if it relied on historical modelling.  Even now the demographics of who is turning back up to the movies is hella uncertain and up in the air making longer range (ie not factoring in pre-sales) forecasting problematic.

 

Not only do I give Shawn and co a mulligan for all of 2021, I give them extra credit for even trying in the first place.  I would note that most of the other industry trackers were making cricket sounds for most of 2021 (near as I can tell at any rate).

 

Now, sure, Box Office Pro "took the L" on No Way Home.  They admitted as such.  But, and this is just me talking, I ain't gonna hold that against them. 

 

Either way, I don't see much to complain about their The Batman forecast.  It might be on the wide side.  But that's because it is still up in the air right now thanks to a ton of factors.

 

Now if they're still all over the map once the pandemic is fully in the rear view mirror and don't look to be adjusting to a new reality, fine.  But right now?  Don't think the low-grade harping I've seen on the rise on this board concerning BOP is fair in the slightest.

Edited February 25, 2022 by Porthos

[Shawn Robbins]

5 hours ago, excel1 said:

BoxOfficePro's tracking is frankly laughable. Always sad to see out of date models fail to adjust, always a step behind.

 

2 hours ago, efialtes76 said:

BoxOfficePro's tracking is usually laughable...

 

1 hour ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

To be fair, is hard not to miss with the gigantic ranges they usually give lol

 

Top two comments here are among the most uninformed and inaccurate comments I've ever read, and surprising coming from people who've been around this community for a long time.

 

The third... well, there is information below for you, too. In fact, if you read the text in our reports, you'd understand why the ranges are listed and that those are not the complete version of our tracking/forecasting.

 

It's easy for people to criticize when they don't put in the amount of work others do or understand the behind-the-scenes methodologies in play. Beyond that, you are viewing FREE content. What's "sad" @excel1 and @efialtes76 is that aside from cherry-picking, you're basing your opinions on claims you can't even prove. Instead of asking questions to understand, you're choosing the path of intellectual laziness with comments like this.

 

If you want access to the specific forecasts like we provide to quite a few clients and industry sources whom we have good relationships with -- and who understand what forecasting actually entails beyond just unreasonable internet fandom and keyboard warrior stances like yours here -- you're welcome to pay for it and get full access like others do.

 

If you don't want to pay attention to the facts or just simply disagree with our numbers sometimes though, that's fine, but don't come on this forum and attack me or the team I work with. It won't stand. Even when I'm not tagged in a post, there are a number of community members here who let me know when that type of thing occurs. It's juvenile and won't be tolerated.

 

I get that it's easy to attack people or publications, but how would you feel if someone trolled you at your place of work for no apparent reason?

 

Be better please or just don't post here anymore. This forum deserves better, and this thread is not made for such half-witted commentary that doesn't have some basis in reality.

 

To the vast majority of everyone else here, keep up the great work.

[Porthos]

13 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Even when I'm not tagged in a post, there are a number of community members here who let me know when that type of thing occurs. It's juvenile and won't be tolerated.

 

For the record, I thought about tagging you in my reply/defense, but I decided I didn't want to drag you into this little spat figuring that if you wanted to comment you would.  And apparently did. 👍

Edited February 25, 2022 by Porthos

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

When dad comes home and finds out you back talked your mother today….

 

[Jason]

This was quite some time ago - pre-pandemic - but I still feel worth it's worth noting that back when I was playing Derby (2016-17) I looked at a lot of forecasts, and the Box Office Pro forecasts were, on average, the closest to actuals among publicly available forecasts.

(The closest possible forecast over time was actually generated by a weighted average of the forecasts from different sites, but that's because there's a portion of the error in forecasting that is random - and therefore expected to average out to zero in a sufficiently large sample. Of course, that doesn't work for generating a de novo forecast. In a similar vein, an average of all Derby forecasts was almost always better than any individual forecast.)

 

Granted, I haven't done this type of detailed mathematical analysis for a while (and definitely not since the pandemic made everything go to shit) but I still feel confident that anyone thinking the Box Office Pro forecasts aren't of least comparable accuracy to the others available is selectively remembering specific examples that weren't as accurate, rather than doing any kind of comprehensive comparison. (And apparently not too many forecasters were even trying in the pandemic era!)

(cc: @Shawn)

Edited February 25, 2022 by Jason