Christmas Weekend Thread (24-26 Dec). No Way Home (84.5m) | Matrix (22.5m 5 day) | Sing 2 (39.4m 5 day)

[Ryan Reynolds]

2 minutes ago, XO21 said:

TLJ didn't have idk like covid...

Jumanji it had though

[charlie Jatinder]

30 minutes ago, Agafin said:

I think just like how Endgame showed that an A+ movie can have average legs, NWH is showing that a December opener can also have average legs. Marvel event movies are becoming very frontloaded.

I think legs should be viewed other than multiples as well, because after sometime you are just taxing a film for opening HUGE.

 

Endgame did $500M after first weekend, which is done by only 4 films to date i.e. Titanic, Avatar and TFA. Black Panther was just shy of $500M. The other 3 were all XMAS releases.

Edited December 26, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Legion Again]

3 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Not to mention, we really don’t know what the Math says about how a megagrosser should perform in a pandemic. Anyone that thinks it’s disappointing is being kinda ridiculous

Eh, movies haven’t been performing particularly differently in terms of post OW behavior. NWH always has the rising omicron excuse to fall back on if we need it but that’s an explanation of why the legs would be disappointing, not exactly a negation of their being disappointing.   
 

That said, it appears that xmas day was weak across the board (as others have said) and there are some plausible pandemic related reasons for that (as others have said). The 2nd weekdays are what’s make or break on this calendar, so… 🤞

[john2000]

Its already an overperformance i am old enough to remember that many users here were out of the 620 dom and 700 dom clubs.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

What's the word on Licorice Pizza, Journal For Jordan and American Underdog?

[john2000]

7 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Eh, movies haven’t been performing particularly differently in terms of post OW behavior. NWH always has the rising omicron excuse to fall back on if we need it but that’s an explanation of why the legs would be disappointing, not exactly a negation of their being disappointing.   
 

That said, it appears that xmas day was weak across the board (as others have said) and there are some plausible pandemic related reasons for that (as others have said). The 2nd weekdays are what’s make or break on this calendar, so… 🤞

i wonder if we see an increase on sun.

[Agafin]

14 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

i don't think Americans celebrate boxing day , its generally just a day off after xmas

It doesn't matter whether Americans celebrate boxing day or not, the point is that the day itself certainly acts as a holiday. All the uber-blockbusters ($500m+) released in December had boxing day being higher than Christmas day (Titanic, Avatar TFA, TLJ, RO) or just slightly lower (TROS) irrespective of WOM or the calendar configuration.

[baumer]

Just a friendly reminder once again that even though Canada is small we still account for around 10-13% of the box office in North america. Our theaters here are down to 50% capacity by government order and there's no concessions that are being served also because of government order. There is rapid tests here that need to be taken and they limited family gatherings to 10 people or less indoors. The government here is trying to scare the shit out of everybody and it seems to be working and unfortunately that is affecting movie going. If Omicron hadn't happened I think the daily grosses for everything but especially no way home would be at least 10% bigger. So for example with Spider-Man is doing 30 million on Christmas Day I think it could have done like 33 if the restrictions here for the cinemas weren't put in place.

 

So just keep that in mind before starting your discussion about how the numbers are disappointing.

[baumer]

16 minutes ago, john2000 said:

i wonder if we see an increase on sun.

 

No ( it's possible but I think unlikely)

[Legion Again]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

I think legs should be viewed other than multiples as well, because after sometime you are just taxing a film for opening HUGE.

 

Endgame did $500M after first weekend, which is done by only 4 films to date i.e. Titanic, Avatar and TFA. Black Panther was just shy of $500M.

You’ve gotta use division instead of subtraction or you just can’t compare different sizes sensibly. We know Knives Out, TGS, Spiderverse has great legs and BvS poor ones, but in post OW cash BvS will look much better.   
 

Also, record breaking OWs often have very good classical legs (total/OW) and even below new #1 records I don’t think there is (or at least, was) the kind of robust negative correlation between big OWs and weak multis that you seem to be implying.   
 

However, I’m definitely not saying that total/OW should be the one true objective measure of holding quality. It’s ultimately rather arbitrary and probably most used only because it’s convenient (in other words, lazy 😛 ). True FSS legs are better imo and I use them a lot — helps adjust for different preview sizes some. Total/first 7 days is realistically much better than classical legs calculation — including weekdays automatically helps balance for school vs summer vs winter, handle holiday Mondays, and handle midweek releases. (Total-previews)/(true first 7 days) even better yet.   
 

And if you wanted to penalize films less for opening big then you could try perhaps post-1stSun/(first 7 days post 1stSun), or post-ThPost1stSun/(first 7 days post ThPost1stSun), some decreasing weighted mix of first week multi, 2nd week multi, etc.

[Legion Again]

And as Baumer says the Canada restriction is a bit of a drag, in NWH case in particular it would be better to have US only calculations if possible.

Edited December 26, 2021 by Product Driven Legion

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, john2000 said:

Its already an overperformance i am old enough to remember that many users here were out of the 620 dom and 700 dom clubs.

Meh, this is a bit of a non sequitor. A high total from a huge OW+awful legs still involves awful legs and it’s fine for people to complain about them.   
 

Not saying that that’s the case here, just, in general — I often see people try to shut down legs complaints by bringing up the total and it’s just nonsensical.

[baumer]

1 minute ago, Product Driven Legion said:

And as Baumer says the Canada restriction is a bit of a drag, in NWH case in particular it would be better to have US only calculations if possible.

 

You're not going to get that. Unfortunately there is no website that I know of that breaks down Canadian gross anymore. There used to be one years ago but that disappeared.

[Legion Again]

9 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

What's the word on Licorice Pizza, Journal For Jordan and American Underdog?

Normally this is where I’d run my “who cares” bit — but as a matter of fact, Pizza and Underdog are the two movies I’m most interested in this week aside from NWH and I would also love some nums on them.

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Meh, this is a bit of a non sequitor. A high total from a huge OW+awful legs still involves awful legs and it’s fine for people to complain about them.   
 

Not saying that that’s the case here, just, in general — I often see people try to shut down legs complaints by bringing up the total and it’s just nonsensical.

true, as for nwh in particular next week will give us  a real look at what the final could be as this weekend was unique for many reasons inluding the differences in the calendar in other words we dont have something to make a comparison.

Edited December 26, 2021 by john2000

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

 

You're not going to get that. Unfortunately there is no website that I know of that breaks down Canadian gross anymore. There used to be one years ago but that disappeared.

Nothing public facing afaik but some insiders are aware and it’s not impossible that some info (or even the final results of calcs based on the info) could trickle out in some capacity.

[Legion Again]

10 minutes ago, Agafin said:

It doesn't matter whether Americans celebrate boxing day or not, the point is that the day itself certainly acts as a holiday. All the uber-blockbusters ($500m+) released in December had boxing day being higher than Christmas day (Titanic, Avatar TFA, TLJ, RO) or just slightly lower (TROS) irrespective of WOM or the calendar configuration.

Hmm, pretty interesting observation actually. Now I kind of want to run 26th/25th as a function of 25th raw size.

[baumer]

1 minute ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Nothing public facing afaik but some insiders are aware and it’s not impossible that some info (or even the final results of calcs based on the info) could trickle out in some capacity.

RTH used to do a mini theater breakdown for us by telling us what the top 10 grossing cinemas were in North America for any given weekend. Sometimes he would do the top 20 and often a couple of theaters in Toronto and one in Calgary would come in the top 20 and sometimes the top 10.

 

I was also vaguely aware that the province of Quebec, which is the second biggest one in Canada by population, contributed significantly to the box office. Unfortunately the province of Quebec is being hit the hardest with restrictions right now and it's obviously affecting movie going. So I think the Canadian box office is a very significant factor as to why the numbers are not increasing the way they should be.

[XO21]

13 minutes ago, Agafin said:

It doesn't matter whether Americans celebrate boxing day or not, the point is that the day itself certainly acts as a holiday. All the uber-blockbusters ($500m+) released in December had boxing day being higher than Christmas day (Titanic, Avatar TFA, TLJ, RO) or just slightly lower (TROS) irrespective of WOM or the calendar configuration.

I don't get why you keep insisting all those movies didn't have covid to deal with...

[charlie Jatinder]

13 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

You’ve gotta use division instead of subtraction or you just can’t compare different sizes sensibly. We know Knives Out, TGS, Spiderverse has great legs and BvS poor ones, but in post OW cash BvS will look much better.

Come on. Gotta compare similar films when talking in absolutes.