SLAM! Posted April 4, 2022 Share Posted April 4, 2022 The screenplay categories looked stacked this year! My predictions bolded: Original Screenplays Armageddon Time Asteroid City Babylon The Banshees of Inisherin Bardo Canterbury Glass Cha Cha Real Smooth Empire of Light Everything Everywhere All At Once The Fabelmans Nope Rustin TÁR Thirteen Lives The Woman King Adapted Screenplays Avatar 2 Bones and All The Good Nurse The Greatest Beer Run Ever The Killer Killers of the Flower Moon Next Goal Wins Poor Things She Said The Son The Whale White Noise Women Talking The Zone of Interest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interiorgatordecorator Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 I'm not ready for obama-produced-oscar-bait-movies 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interiorgatordecorator Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 (edited) On 2/9/2022 at 12:21 AM, Eric the Hedgehog said: Avatar 2 Black Panther 2 The Batman Lightyear Knives Out 2 Top Gun 2 Thor 4 Nope Across The Spider-Verse The Gray Man Laugh at me all you want, but after the last few years' ratings were in the toilet, I'd be shocked if ABC/AMPAS don't push hard to add in as much populist fare as possible, even if that means they lose all their integrity....what little they had. Throw in some nominations for Dwayne Johnson and Elizabeth Olsen and Tom Cruise while you're at it just to be safe. We're laughing but if they wanted to go populist they would have done so this year There's way too much competition this year, way too many prestigious names have things out this year due to covid delays, doubt there's enough room left over for any populist movie not named avatar 2. If they are able to position avatar 2 as a semi-serious award contender then that's all the populism they need taken care of. Edited April 5, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 Shot in the dark early predictions: Picture: 1. She Said 2. The Fabelmans 3. Killers of the Flower Moon 4. The Son 5. Avatar 2 6. Babylon 7. Three Thousand Years of Longing 8. The Killer 9. Everything Everywhere All at Once 10. Poor Things Alt: Bardo Director: 1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans 2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon 3. Maria Schrader, She Said 4. Florian Zeller, The Son 5. Alejandro Inarritu, Bardo Alt: David Fincher, The Killer Actor: 1. Hugh Jackman, The Son 2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale 3. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon 4. Idris Elba, Three Thousand Years of Longing 5. Michael Fassbender, The Killer Alt: Zac Efron, The Greatest Beer Run Ever Actress: 1. Charlize Theron, Three Thousand Years of Longing 2. Laura Dern, The Son 3. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once 4. Carey Mulligan, She Said 5. Margot Robbie, Babylon Alt: Zoe Kazan, She Said Supporting Actor: 1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon 2. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things 3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon 4. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once 5. David Lynch, The Fabelmans Alt: Anthony Hopkins, The Son Supporting Actress: 1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans 2. Jean Smart, Babylon 3. Vanessa Kirby, The Son 4. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon 5. Tilda Swinton, The Killer Alt: Patricia Clarkson, She Said Original Screenplay: 1. The Fabelmans 2. Three Thousand Years of Longing 3. Everything Everywhere All at Once 4. Babylon 5. Bardo Alt: The Menu Adapted Screenplay: 1. She Said 2. The Son 3. Poor Things 4. Killers of the Flower Moon 5. The Killer Alt: The Greatest Beer Run Ever 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted April 5, 2022 Author Share Posted April 5, 2022 I definitely wouldn't bet against She Said as a frontrunner for the win if it delivers (given the talent involved, it would be a surprise if it didn't). I read the book and the comparisons to Spotlight (both deal with journalists bringing horrific sex crimes to light) are inevitable. This will likely end up more controversial though since it's the first major movie dealing with the Weinstein scandal, just five years after he finally received his comeuppance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 (edited) PICTURE: 1. Babylon (PARAMOUNT) 2. Killers of the Flower Moon (APPLE/PARAMOUNT) 3. The Fabelmans (UNIVERSAL) 4. Thirteen Lives (MGM) 5. Empire of Light (SEARCHLIGHT) 6. Poor Things (SEARCHLIGHT) 7. The Son (SPC) 8. White Noise (NETFLIX) 9. Everything Everywhere (A24) 10. Avatar 2 (FOX) ALT: David O. Russell (FOX) UNDISTRIBUTED BUT CONTENDERS: Bardo. Broker. Decision to Leave. The Holdovers. Mostly every Fincher genre film flops with noms and Killer is an adaptation of a pulpy graphic novel. She Said gives me failed flop of the year vibes. Heard the George Miller had mixed screening reactions and MGM has their hands full this year. Keeping my eye on the undistributed films, especially Inarritu. The David O. Russell can be very appealing or a backlash flop, and Fox will care more about Avatar 2 DIRECTOR: 1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon 2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of Flower Moon 3. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans 4. Noah Baumbach, White Noise 5. James Cameron, Avatar 2 ALT: Zeller, The Son. UNDISTRIBUTED: Inarritu, Bardo Feeling like Ron Howard gets DGA nom but Oscar snubbed. White Noise looks like both most prestige+acclaimed Netflix contender and Baumbach's most ambitious film. Cameron can get snubbed but Avatar 2 will likely win lots of techs so he'll be in the mix. Zeller borderline since stage adaptations hit/miss here. Sarah Polley is someone to watch out for. ACTOR: 1. Hugh Jackman, The Son 2. Leonardo DiCaprio/Jesse Plemons, Killers of Flower Moon 3. Brendan Fraser, The Whale 4. Adam Driver, White Noise 5. Colman Domingo, Rustin ALT: Calva, Babylon UNDISTRIBUTED: Giamatti, The Holdovers Crowded year. Watch out for someone from Thirteen Lives like Viggo, someone from Empire of Light (Michael Ward?). Fassbender will have 2 contenders. Austin Butler will get breakout raves for Elvis. And Christian Bale will always be a contender. Bill Nighy received Sundance raves. ACTRESS: 1. Margot Robbie, Babylon 2. Naomie Ackie, I Wanna Dance With Somebody 3. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light 4. Regina King, Shirley 5. Emma Stone, Poor Things ALT: Blanchett, TAR Keeping my eye on Michelle Yeoh. Is Laura Dern Lead in The Son? SUPPORTING ACTOR: 1. Brad Pitt, Babylon 2. Jesse Plemons/Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of Flower Moon 3. Robert De Niro, Killers of Flower Moon 4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans 5. Zen McGrath, The Son ALT: Whishaw, Women Talking Watch out for Michael Ward if not lead. John David Washington in the David O. Russell. Ke Huy Quan would be fun. SUPPORTING ACTRESS: 1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of Flower Moon 2. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans 3. Laura Dern/Vanessa Kirby, The Son 4. Jean Smart, Babylon 5. Jessie Buckley/Rooney Mara/Claire Foy, Women Talking (????) ALT: Chau/Sink, The Whale Greta Gerwig makes her acting return in White Noise and has a fun role. Maybe Nina Hoss can coattail off Blanchett in TAR. Watch out for Robbie to be pushed here for the David O. Russell. ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: 1. Babylon 2. The Fabelmans 3. Thirteen Lives 4. Empire of Light 5. Everything Everywhere All At Once ALT: David O. Russell. Martin McDonagh. Bros. Armageddon Time. UNDISTRIBUTED: The Holdovers. Bardo. Decision To Leave. Broker. ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: 1. Killers of Flower Moon 2. The Son 3. White Noise 4. Poor Things 5. Women Talking ALT: Next Goal Wins. The Whale. She Said. The Good Nurse. The Killer. Living. Edited April 5, 2022 by BestPicturePlutoNash 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 (edited) Feel like Avatar 2 is going to fall victim to what Two Towers and to some extent Dune suffered: the franchise is far from done, so what's the need in nominating Cameron/a bunch of techs? VFX, Sound, Production Design, and Cinematography nominations/wins will happen at least. Edited April 5, 2022 by WrathOfHan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interiorgatordecorator Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: Feel like Avatar 2 is going to fall victim to what Two Towers and to some extent Dune suffered: the franchise is far from done, so what's the need in nominating Cameron/a bunch of techs? VFX, Sound, Production Design, and Cinematography nominations/wins will happen at least. I keep seeing the argument that Dune got "two-towers"ed, but do people really think it was good enough to really compete for best picture? There's a reason villenueve didn't get nominated for best director Had it comed out in 2019 or this year its extremely unlikely itd get nominated for BP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 Most cinematography winners get Director noms: Mank, 1917, Roma, La La Land, The Revenant, Birdman, Gravity, Life of Pi, Hugo. (Pi, Gravity, Birdman, Revenant, La La Land, Roma won Directing Oscar. 1917 won DGA and was runnerup to Parasite). It's ironically Villeneuve who doesn't lol. Blade Runner and Dune. I guess the argument is that Avatar is a sequel but Cameron is more respected than Villeneuve. A Directing win, a BP win, and another Directing nom. You have to go back to Inception winning in 2010 for another comp for a Cameron miss. Nolan was snubbed. Even before that: 2009: Avatar (Cameron nom) 2008: Slumdog Millionaire (Boyle won) 2007: There Will Be Blood (PTA nom) 2004: The Aviator (Scorsese nom) 2003: Master and Commander (Weir nom) 2001: Fellowship of the Ring (Jackson nom) 2000: Crouching Tiger (Lee nom) 1999: American Beauty (Mendes won) 1998: Saving Private Ryan (Spielberg won) 1997: Titanic (Cameron won) 1996: English Patient (Won) 1995: Braveheart (Gibson won) Misses: 2006: Pan's Labyrinth 2005: Memoirs of a Geisha 2002: Road To Perdition (Two Towers lost) 1994: Legends of the Fall Cameron will be in the running if Avatar 2 is the Cinematography frontrunner which is likely will Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 The Fabelmans Killers of the Flower Moon Empire of Light Thirteen Lives Avatar 2 The Son Babylon She Said The Greatest Beer Run Ever Broker Alt: Elvis Only way a foreign film is getting in is through critics pushing it imo (like the last couple times) and I think Broker will be a much bigger hit with critics than Bardo or Decision to Leave. Inarittu has an easier in since he has industry clout already, but I think the work abuse allegations will bite him in the ass. I think the win would be a toss between Thirteen Lives and She Said, if both end up getting nominated (probably gonna be the worst two films out of the ones I listed too lol). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CloneWars Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 It would be nice if Everything Everywhere All At Once got a BP nom, but the Academy usually nominates crap, so... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 55 minutes ago, CloneWars said: It would be nice if Everything Everywhere All At Once got a BP nom, but the Academy usually nominates crap, so... Yeah, Licorice Pizza, West Side Story, Drive My Car..all crap. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 On 4/5/2022 at 7:39 AM, WrathOfHan said: Feel like Avatar 2 is going to fall victim to what Two Towers and to some extent Dune suffered: the franchise is far from done, so what's the need in nominating Cameron/a bunch of techs? VFX, Sound, Production Design, and Cinematography nominations/wins will happen at least. Cameron has a much bigger status than Jackson or Villeneuve and on top of that he kinda has a big narrative for a locked BP/BD nom IF Avatar 2 lands well. Took him so much time to make the sequels that there's negative buzz around them for years. If Avatar 2 is a well reviewed mega hit with groundbreaking tech he's not missing. He can only miss if the movie really underperforms. now about the early "favorites" I'm just not feeling She Said being that slam dunk of an oscar frontrunner at all. It kinda seems too soon-ish for the subject matter to be across the board embraced in the industry. About Killers of the flower moon I have the feeling Lily Gladstone would be a co-lead just based on her being included in the first released still. It will look especially bad if she is the 5th supporting player in a sea of white guys with a story like this. And Babylon I think is a bit overestimated. It's gonna be very R rated and methinks it's gonna have a too much discourse problem. If Chazelle can get people mad with jazz saving and not enough american flags, imagine what he can do with orgies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted April 10, 2022 Author Share Posted April 10, 2022 Babylon strikes me as another The Wolf of Wall Street: plenty of controversy and a number of nominations, but probably no wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 Margot Robbie is in a prime career spot to take Actress Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 You were spot on about King Richard and Denzel in Macbeth, hearing anything exciting this year? @Cmasterclay Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 5 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said: You were spot on about King Richard and Denzel in Macbeth, hearing anything exciting this year? @Cmasterclay What did he say about them again? I know he did have some tea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 11 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said: You were spot on about King Richard and Denzel in Macbeth, hearing anything exciting this year? @Cmasterclay Nothing much this year unless you count good sources that told me Top Gun: Maverick is very good. I did hear that the Ron Howard cave movie is testing very very well and it is high in my predictions, though that's audience testing (critics are harder on Ron Howard movies). I hear Armaggedon Time is quite good but not so undeniable it rolls to a ton of awards or anything, so there's that for anyone that has that very high in predictions. Those are the only two so far. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 Awards contenders from Cannes to look out for: Broker (Kore-Eda) Decision To Leave (Park Chan-wook) Armageddon Time is possible but it's James Gray so proceed with caution Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 A James Gray movie being an early oscar contender once again for some reason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...