Best Picture Predictions: 2022

[SLAM!]

The screenplay categories looked stacked this year!

 

My predictions bolded:

 

Original Screenplays

Armageddon Time

Asteroid City

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Bardo

Canterbury Glass

Cha Cha Real Smooth

Empire of Light

Everything Everywhere All At Once

The Fabelmans

Nope

Rustin

TÁR

Thirteen Lives

The Woman King

 

Adapted Screenplays

Avatar 2

Bones and All

The Good Nurse

The Greatest Beer Run Ever

The Killer

Killers of the Flower Moon

Next Goal Wins

Poor Things

She Said

The Son

The Whale

White Noise

Women Talking

The Zone of Interest

[interiorgatordecorator]

I'm not ready for obama-produced-oscar-bait-movies

 

 

[interiorgatordecorator]

On 2/9/2022 at 12:21 AM, Eric the Hedgehog said:

Avatar 2

Black Panther 2

The Batman

Lightyear

Knives Out 2

Top Gun 2

Thor 4

Nope

Across The Spider-Verse

The Gray Man

 

Laugh at me all you want, but after the last few years' ratings were in the toilet, I'd be shocked if ABC/AMPAS don't push hard to add in as much populist fare as possible, even if that means they lose all their integrity....what little they had. Throw in some nominations for Dwayne Johnson and Elizabeth Olsen and Tom Cruise while you're at it just to be safe.

 

We're laughing but if they wanted to go populist they would have done so this year

There's way too much competition this year, way too many prestigious names have things out this year due to covid delays,  doubt there's enough room left over for any populist movie not named avatar 2. If they are able to position avatar 2 as a semi-serious award contender then that's all the populism they need taken care of.

Edited April 5, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[WrathOfHan]

Shot in the dark early predictions:

 

Picture:

 

1. She Said

2. The Fabelmans

3. Killers of the Flower Moon

4. The Son

5. Avatar 2

6. Babylon

7. Three Thousand Years of Longing

8. The Killer

9. Everything Everywhere All at Once

10. Poor Things

Alt: Bardo

 

Director:

 

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Maria Schrader, She Said

4. Florian Zeller, The Son

5. Alejandro Inarritu, Bardo

Alt: David Fincher, The Killer

 

Actor:

 

1. Hugh Jackman, The Son

2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale

3. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon

4. Idris Elba, Three Thousand Years of Longing

5. Michael Fassbender, The Killer

Alt: Zac Efron, The Greatest Beer Run Ever

 

Actress:

 

1. Charlize Theron, Three Thousand Years of Longing

2. Laura Dern, The Son

3. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

4. Carey Mulligan, She Said

5. Margot Robbie, Babylon

Alt: Zoe Kazan, She Said

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

2. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

4. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

5. David Lynch, The Fabelmans

Alt: Anthony Hopkins, The Son

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

2. Jean Smart, Babylon

3. Vanessa Kirby, The Son

4. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

5. Tilda Swinton, The Killer

Alt: Patricia Clarkson, She Said

 

Original Screenplay:

 

1. The Fabelmans

2. Three Thousand Years of Longing

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once

4. Babylon

5. Bardo

Alt: The Menu

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. She Said

2. The Son

3. Poor Things

4. Killers of the Flower Moon

5. The Killer

Alt: The Greatest Beer Run Ever

[filmlover]

I definitely wouldn't bet against She Said as a frontrunner for the win if it delivers (given the talent involved, it would be a surprise if it didn't). I read the book and the comparisons to Spotlight (both deal with journalists bringing horrific sex crimes to light) are inevitable. This will likely end up more controversial though since it's the first major movie dealing with the Weinstein scandal, just five years after he finally received his comeuppance.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

PICTURE:

1. Babylon (PARAMOUNT)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (APPLE/PARAMOUNT)

3. The Fabelmans (UNIVERSAL)

4. Thirteen Lives (MGM)

5. Empire of Light (SEARCHLIGHT)

6. Poor Things (SEARCHLIGHT)

7. The Son (SPC)

8. White Noise (NETFLIX)

9. Everything Everywhere (A24)

10. Avatar 2 (FOX)

ALT: David O. Russell (FOX)

UNDISTRIBUTED BUT CONTENDERS: Bardo. Broker. Decision to Leave. The Holdovers. 

Mostly every Fincher genre film flops with noms and Killer is an adaptation of a pulpy graphic novel. She Said gives me failed flop of the year vibes. Heard the George Miller had mixed screening reactions and MGM has their hands full this year. Keeping my eye on the undistributed films, especially Inarritu. The David O. Russell can be very appealing or a backlash flop, and Fox will care more about Avatar 2

 

DIRECTOR:

1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of Flower Moon

3. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

4. Noah Baumbach, White Noise

5. James Cameron, Avatar 2

ALT: Zeller, The Son. 

UNDISTRIBUTED: Inarritu, Bardo

Feeling like Ron Howard gets DGA nom but Oscar snubbed. White Noise looks like both most prestige+acclaimed Netflix contender and Baumbach's most ambitious film. Cameron can get snubbed but Avatar 2 will likely win lots of techs so he'll be in the mix. Zeller borderline since stage adaptations hit/miss here. Sarah Polley is someone to watch out for. 

 

ACTOR:

1. Hugh Jackman, The Son

2. Leonardo DiCaprio/Jesse Plemons, Killers of Flower Moon

3. Brendan Fraser, The Whale

4. Adam Driver, White Noise

5. Colman Domingo, Rustin

ALT: Calva, Babylon

UNDISTRIBUTED: Giamatti, The Holdovers

Crowded year. Watch out for someone from Thirteen Lives like Viggo, someone from Empire of Light (Michael Ward?). Fassbender will have 2 contenders. Austin Butler will get breakout raves for Elvis. And Christian Bale will always be a contender. Bill Nighy received Sundance raves.

 

ACTRESS:

1. Margot Robbie, Babylon

2. Naomie Ackie, I Wanna Dance With Somebody

3. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light

4. Regina King, Shirley

5. Emma Stone, Poor Things

ALT: Blanchett, TAR

Keeping my eye on Michelle Yeoh. Is Laura Dern Lead in The Son?

 

SUPPORTING ACTOR:

1. Brad Pitt, Babylon

2. Jesse Plemons/Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of Flower Moon

3. Robert De Niro, Killers of Flower Moon

4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans

5. Zen McGrath, The Son

ALT: Whishaw, Women Talking

Watch out for Michael Ward if not lead. John David Washington in the David O. Russell. Ke Huy Quan would be fun. 

 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of Flower Moon

2. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

3. Laura Dern/Vanessa Kirby, The Son

4. Jean Smart, Babylon

5. Jessie Buckley/Rooney Mara/Claire Foy, Women Talking (????)

ALT: Chau/Sink, The Whale

Greta Gerwig makes her acting return in White Noise and has a fun role. Maybe Nina Hoss can coattail off Blanchett in TAR. Watch out for Robbie to be pushed here for the David O. Russell.

 

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: 

1. Babylon

2. The Fabelmans

3. Thirteen Lives

4. Empire of Light

5. Everything Everywhere All At Once

ALT: David O. Russell. Martin McDonagh. Bros. Armageddon Time.

UNDISTRIBUTED: The Holdovers. Bardo. Decision To Leave. Broker.

 

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

1. Killers of Flower Moon

2. The Son

3. White Noise

4. Poor Things

5. Women Talking

ALT: Next Goal Wins. The Whale. She Said. The Good Nurse. The Killer. Living.

Edited April 5, 2022 by BestPicturePlutoNash

[WrathOfHan]

Feel like Avatar 2 is going to fall victim to what Two Towers and to some extent Dune suffered: the franchise is far from done, so what's the need in nominating Cameron/a bunch of techs? VFX, Sound, Production Design, and Cinematography nominations/wins will happen at least.

Edited April 5, 2022 by WrathOfHan

[interiorgatordecorator]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Feel like Avatar 2 is going to fall victim to what Two Towers and to some extent Dune suffered: the franchise is far from done, so what's the need in nominating Cameron/a bunch of techs? VFX, Sound, Production Design, and Cinematography nominations/wins will happen at least.

I keep seeing the argument that Dune got "two-towers"ed, but do people really think it was good enough to really compete for best picture? There's a reason villenueve didn't get nominated for best director

Had it comed out in 2019 or this year its extremely unlikely itd get nominated for BP

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Most cinematography winners get Director noms: Mank, 1917, Roma, La La Land, The Revenant, Birdman, Gravity, Life of Pi, Hugo. (Pi, Gravity, Birdman, Revenant, La La Land, Roma won Directing Oscar. 1917 won DGA and was runnerup to Parasite). 

 

It's ironically Villeneuve who doesn't lol. Blade Runner and Dune. I guess the argument is that Avatar is a sequel but Cameron is more respected than Villeneuve. A Directing win, a BP win, and another Directing nom.

 

You have to go back to Inception winning in 2010 for another comp for a Cameron miss. Nolan was snubbed. Even before that:

2009: Avatar (Cameron nom)

2008: Slumdog Millionaire (Boyle won)

2007: There Will Be Blood (PTA nom)

2004: The Aviator (Scorsese nom)

2003: Master and Commander (Weir nom)

2001: Fellowship of the Ring (Jackson nom)

2000: Crouching Tiger (Lee nom)

1999: American Beauty (Mendes won)

1998: Saving Private Ryan (Spielberg won)

1997: Titanic (Cameron won)

1996: English Patient (Won)

1995: Braveheart (Gibson won)

 

Misses:

2006: Pan's Labyrinth 

2005: Memoirs of a Geisha

2002: Road To Perdition (Two Towers lost)

1994: Legends of the Fall

 

Cameron will be in the running if Avatar 2 is the Cinematography frontrunner which is likely will

[lorddemaxus]

The Fabelmans

Killers of the Flower Moon

Empire of Light

Thirteen Lives

Avatar 2

The Son

Babylon

She Said

The Greatest Beer Run Ever

Broker

 

Alt: Elvis

 

 

Only way a foreign film is getting in is through critics pushing it imo (like the last couple times) and I think Broker will be a much bigger hit with critics than Bardo or Decision to Leave. Inarittu has an easier in since he has industry clout already, but I think the work abuse allegations will bite him in the ass. I think the win would be a toss between Thirteen Lives and She Said, if both end up getting nominated (probably gonna be the worst two films out of the ones I listed too lol).

[CloneWars]

It would be nice if Everything Everywhere All At Once got a BP nom, but the Academy usually nominates crap, so...

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

55 minutes ago, CloneWars said:

It would be nice if Everything Everywhere All At Once got a BP nom, but the Academy usually nominates crap, so...

Yeah, Licorice Pizza, West Side Story, Drive My Car..all crap.

[Joel M]

On 4/5/2022 at 7:39 AM, WrathOfHan said:

Feel like Avatar 2 is going to fall victim to what Two Towers and to some extent Dune suffered: the franchise is far from done, so what's the need in nominating Cameron/a bunch of techs? VFX, Sound, Production Design, and Cinematography nominations/wins will happen at least.

 

Cameron has a much bigger status than Jackson or Villeneuve and on top of that he kinda has a big narrative for a locked BP/BD nom IF Avatar 2 lands well. Took him so much time to make the sequels that there's negative buzz around them for years. If Avatar 2 is a well reviewed mega hit with groundbreaking tech he's not missing. He can only miss if the movie really underperforms.

 

now about the early "favorites"

I'm just not feeling She Said being that slam dunk of an oscar frontrunner at all. It kinda seems too soon-ish for the subject matter to be across the board embraced in the industry.

About Killers of the flower moon I have the feeling Lily Gladstone would be a co-lead just based on her being included in the first released still. It will look especially bad if she is the 5th supporting player in a sea of white guys with a story like this.

And Babylon I think is a bit overestimated. It's gonna be very R rated and methinks it's gonna have a too much discourse problem. If Chazelle can get people mad with jazz saving and not enough american flags, imagine what he can do with orgies.

[filmlover]

Babylon strikes me as another The Wolf of Wall Street: plenty of controversy and a number of nominations, but probably no wins.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Margot Robbie is in a prime career spot to take Actress

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

You were spot on about King Richard and Denzel in Macbeth, hearing anything exciting this year? @Cmasterclay

[lorddemaxus]

5 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

You were spot on about King Richard and Denzel in Macbeth, hearing anything exciting this year? @Cmasterclay

What did he say about them again? I know he did have some tea.

[Cmasterclay]

11 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

You were spot on about King Richard and Denzel in Macbeth, hearing anything exciting this year? @Cmasterclay

Nothing much this year unless you count good sources that told me Top Gun: Maverick is very good. I did hear that the Ron Howard cave movie is testing very very well and it is high in my predictions, though that's audience testing (critics are harder on Ron Howard movies). I hear Armaggedon Time is quite good but not so undeniable it rolls to a ton of awards or anything, so there's that for anyone that has that very high in predictions. Those are the only two so far.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Awards contenders from Cannes to look out for:

 

Broker (Kore-Eda)

Decision To Leave (Park Chan-wook)

 

Armageddon Time is possible but it's James Gray so proceed with caution

[Joel M]

A James Gray movie being an early oscar contender once again for some reason.