THE BATMAN WEEKEND THREAD | 134M OW DOM, 258.2M WW | Biggest WB opening since BvS. First non Disney-affiliated 100M OW since 2018

[titanic2187]

The 125m to 130m opening is generally in line with MoS opening of 128m and homecoming 117m and most importantly an instant mockery to hbo max day to date strategy as it passes dune’s total with just opening weeks. It is a number I can’t say I am exhilarated but neither I feel sad. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

On 3/3/2022 at 4:20 PM, PenguinXXR said:

 

True Friday Estimate: $35-39M
Opening Weekend Estimate: $125-140M

 

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Comments 

Since this is new tracking for me, I don't have any comps yet. I will be doing this every Thursday for true Friday, for every film no matter the size. In the future, I'll be able to provide more data like multipliers and audience scores to help extrapolate the weekend. 

 

 

Notes 
PLF = IMAX, Dolby Cinema, AMC Prime 
Regular = Digital, Subtitled, Non-English Language, Close Captioned 

3D = Real 3D 

Theaters Tracked / Breakdowns

AMC Disney Springs 24 (Orlando, FL)
26 show times -- 874 PLF sold -- 1024 Regular sold 

AMC Empire 25 (New York City, NY)
46 show times -- 1782 PLF sold -- 857 Regular sold 

AMC Gulf Pointe 30 (Houston, TX)
51 show times -- 624 PLF sold -- 497 Regular sold 

AMC DINE-IN Grapevine 30 (Dallas, TX)
24 show times -- 549 PLF sold -- 271 Regular sold 

AMC Southlake 24 (Atlanta, GA)
28 show times -- 553 PLF sold -- 306 Regular sold 

AMC Boston Commons 19 (Boston, MA)

26 show times -- 1126 PLF sold -- 667 Regular sold 

AMC Town Square 18 (Las Vegas, NV)
27 show times -- 1234 PLF sold -- 287 Regular sold 

AMC Elmwood Palace 20 (New Orleans, LA)

21 show times -- 423 PLF sold -- 126 Regular sold 

AMC Indianapolis 17 (Indianapolis, IN)

19 show times -- 682 PLF sold -- 283 Regular sold 

AMC Century City 15 (Los Angeles, CA)
25 show times -- 1346 PLF sold -- 781 Regular sold 

AMC South Barrington 24 (Chicago, IL)
31 show times -- 709 PLF sold -- 430 Regular sold 

AMC Barrywoods 24 (Kansas City, MO)
37 show times -- 624 PLF sold -- 120 Regular sold 

AMC River Park Square 20 (Spokane, WA)

31 show times -- 560 PLF sold -- 321 Regular sold 

AMC Council Bluffs 17 (Omaha, NE)
21 show times -- 249 PLF sold -- 183 Regular sold 

AMC Quail Spring 24 (Oklahoma City, OK)

31 show times -- 586 PLF sold -- 119 Regular sold 
 

 

 

 

So a $35-36M true Friday is on the low end of my forecast but still in line with my thoughts. From here I'm thinking Saturday goes +12-15% and Sunday drops 25-30% from that. Puts OW somewhere in the $123-130M range. 

Edited March 5, 2022 by PenguinXXR

[Omario]

I dont see what the problem is. Solid numbers for a reboot. The sequel will for sure be higher. Its just how it is. SM homecoming had a lower 100+ ow weekend too. 

 

This will be aiming for 350m+ dom gross. 

[AdrianL]

50% drop from last Friday for Uncharted. Not bad.

 

19% drop for NWH... jesus

Edited March 5, 2022 by AdrianL

[Brainbug]

Nice number. With a pretty much empty March and good WOM, this will have no problems reaching 300M+ DOM.

[druv10]

Fantastic hold for NWH $1.065M down only (-19%) from last week!

[druv10]

	Movie Title	Distributor	Gross	%YD	%LW	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days In Release
1	N	The Batman	Warner Bros.	$57,000,000			4,417	$12,905	$57,000,000	1
2	(1)	Uncharted	Sony Pictures	$2,965,000	+174%	-50%	3,875	$765	$92,241,384	15
3	(2)	Dog	United Artists	$1,602,942	+159%	-35%	3,507	$457	$35,575,735	15
4	(3)	Spider-Man: No Way Home	Sony Pictures	$1,065,000	+129%	-19%	2,709	$393	$783,153,223	78
-	(6)	jackass forever	Paramount Pi…	$425,000	+158%	-51%	1,981	$215	$53,517,006	29
-	(5)	Sing 2	Universal	$330,000	+96%	-21%	2,026	$163	$152,402,735	73
-	(8)	Marry Me	Universal	$160,000	+84%	-69%	1,246	$128	$21,043,740	22
-	(11)	Scream	Paramount Pi…	$160,000	+203%	-54%	853	$188	$79,815,807	50
-	(-)	Belfast	Focus Features	$19,000	+54%	-38%	523	$36	$8,674,525	113
-	(-)	Redeeming Love	Universal	$3,000	+53%	-75%	76	$39	$9,205,160	43
		10		$63,729,942

 

[Tokugennumataka]

2 minutes ago, druv10 said:

Fantastic hold for NWH $1.065M down only (-19%) from last week!

Sub 25% drop incoming... again

[AdrianL]

I'm surprised holdovers held pretty well. Nice to see. 

[druv10]

2 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Sub 25% drop incoming... again

Yep, with not lot of competition for rest of March, 800M is going to happen! 

[MrPink]

Random thought but with the Batman opening yesterday did theaters open earlier than usual and just have an additional showtime for holdovers that they wouldn't ordinarily have? Probably wouldn't have amounted to much even if it were true, but shower thoughts.

[Cooper Legion]

On 3/4/2022 at 6:49 AM, Villain Legion said:

👀👀

 

Hey @Tokugennumataka, what do you have for top 12th weekends?

 

On 3/4/2022 at 7:10 AM, Tokugennumataka said:

1. Titanic - 17.61M

2. Home Alone - 8.22M

3. Avatar - 8.12M

4. E.T - 6.63M

5. Aladdin - 6.32M

6. Frozen - 6.23M

7. Beverly Hills Cop - 5.86M

8. Forrest Gump - 5.46M

9. Ghost - 5.44M

10. Ghostbusters - 4.68M

 

Fuckin gottem

[Chaz]

Remember all the hit songs that used to come from Batman soundtracks? True pop culture events. 
 

 

[vafrow]

As an opening weekend, it's really in no man's land for comparables. 

 

Other major pandemic releases were at very different stages of consumer apprehension, so it's comparison to Venom or Shang Chi is difficult. 

 

We're probably also not back to prepandemic times yet,, but without any other recent major releases, it's impossible to judge. I expect that the title of second biggest OW of the pandemic will drop quickly as the summer releases get here. 

 

It's still a solid release for a three hour movie regardless of context. I honestly like DCs approach with very disconnected films. I don't think you can beat Marvel at its own game, especially when Sony is doing Marvel-lite already. 

 

Unless the budget is a lot higher than reported, this should generate a profit for the studio while very few other films are doing so. It should also draw viewers to HBO max when it moves there. The critical and audience feedback is strong. 

 

It seems like an easy decision to green light a sequel, and maybe with a note to keep the runtime on the shorter side. 

[Cooper Legion]

I predict NWH to increase shows and drop less than 10% next weekend. all time top 10 13th?

[titanic2187]

23 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

‘The Batman’ Box Office Headed To $100 Million-Plus Opening Weekend – Deadline

As movie theaters continue to pine for a rebound after being closed from 2020-2021, and more moolah post Spider-Man: No Way Home, the domestic opening for Warner Bros.’ ninth Batman movie (tenth if you include Justice League) is nothing to complain about with a $120M weekend. This is after a $57M Friday, an improvement on yesterday’s early evening estimate. Rivals are seeing it slightly higher, but it boils down to walk-up business on Saturday.

 

A heavy male crowd here for The Batman at 67% with the roaring moviegoing 18-34 crowd repping 62%. Diversity draw was 41% Caucasian, 26% Latino and Hispanic, 17% Black, and 16% Asian/other. Imax and PLF are repping 33% of the weekend cash register to date. How big is this opener? Thirteen theaters grossed over $100K, close to 50 runs over $75K and close to 200 over $50K, and that was for Friday alone.

67% male? where is all the chick and lads where you need them?! Let’s put up this sign to the sky now.

[Tokugennumataka]

5 minutes ago, druv10 said:

Yep, with not lot of competition for rest of March, 800M is going to happen! 

At this rate only it's digital release can erode it over a 50% drop. 

[DAJK]

4 minutes ago, MrPink said:

Random thought but with the Batman opening yesterday did theaters open earlier than usual and just have an additional showtime for holdovers that they wouldn't ordinarily have? Probably wouldn't have amounted to much even if it were true, but shower thoughts.

Some did, some didn’t. Granted, I’m only able to look at ~150-200 theaters, and only a small handful that aren’t already grind (open all day long) went grind for Batman. So I’d say the effect, at least in Canada, was negligible.

[Cooper Legion]

1 minute ago, Tokugennumataka said:

At this rate only it's digital release can erode it over a 50% drop. 

Digital release isn’t a big deal, probably will have a “harsh” drop that weekend on the sense of like 30% 😛 

[titanic2187]

12 minutes ago, AdrianL said:

50% drop from last Friday for Uncharted. Not bad.

 

19% drop for NWH... jesus

Nwh phenomenal hold, to a certain extent  ghostbusters too, and uncharted surprise signal the genuine lack of family friendly action flick in the marketplace and that is why they are not really impacted by batman is that movie was less family friendly