FANTASTIC BEASTS: THE SECRETS OF DUMBLEDORE WEEKEND THREAD | Read the first post for the rules

[Ezen Baklattan]

If FB3 does make it to a 20m Friday, it's definitely thanks to Good Friday helping it compared to other Thursday multiplier comps. A normal Friday would have done like maybe 2 or 3 million less, and I'm pretty sure Saturday and Sunday will make up for the difference.

 

Maybe a little more generous legs than my 40/90 prediction to fidget it to triple digits but I'm pretty proud of that predict rn.

[narniadis]

Yuck.... I hate being right in the negative way. Here's to hoping that Saturday is an oddity in the positive way and that at least next weekend there is some recovery in regards to Sonic. 

[TwoMisfits]

13 minutes ago, CJohn said:

What is the fun of this even if DS2 and JW3 both open with 200M? I want different breakouts. I wanted unique movies breaking out. As is, it is just a bunch back to back to back bombs of every genre until the next Disneyfied release.

 

Didn't Sonic 2 just break the non-supers Covid open LAST WEEKEND?  I mean, I know memories are short and we move on fast nowadays, but c'mon...

 

We have other success stories...but like 2019, they just aren't gonna quite live up to supers (Or Disney remakes/Pixar) numbers, but they don't have supers budgets either, so they don't need to...

 

Edited April 16, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[Maggie]

So, Sonic 2 won't do much better than Sonic 1 and that one had its legs cut off by the start of the pandemic. I'm so disappointed. Paramount started this year relatively ok, but this is a fail

[filmnerdjamie]

12 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

You misspelled Bob's Burgers?

 

Kidding aside, I do expect Bob's Burgers to hold its own and do solid business (albeit nothing Earth shattering) against Top Gun: Maverick.

 

And I'm not convinced Jurassic World: Dominion will do $200M opening weekend. Maybe but I don't see it?

[fabiopazzo2]

15 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

What April really needs is a NWH extended edition 

Nah we need The big three 

 

Doctor

Dinos

Thor 

 

😎

 

3 movie easily over 150M in 3 days

Edited April 16, 2022 by fabiopazzo2

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

And I'm not convinced Jurassic World: Dominion will do $200M opening weekend. Maybe but I don't see it?

 

Thats no big deal. You'll see it on Sunday, June 12th, when the estimate of a 210M+ OW are published.

[Shawn Robbins]

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Didn't Sonic 2 just break the non-supers Covid open LAST WEEKEND?  I mean, I know memories are short and we move on fast nowadays, but c'mon...

 

We have other success stories...but like 2019, they just aren't gonna quite live up to supers (Or Disney remakes/Pixar) numbers, but they don't have supers budgets either, so they don't need to...

 

Agreed.

 

I think we all want (desperately) some consistency and normalization, but at the end of the day, this is still a pandemic market. People may be going about their lives more freely than a year ago, but the impact of the last two years is going to keep having ramifications -- especially while we're still in a pandemic and just treating it more casually due to vaccines and fewer restrictions. We are probably at least a year away from a post-pandemic market, and that may even been a little generous.

 

Sonic 2's bright spot is the fact that it's the only real family movie with kids in mind out there (besides Bad Guys) until Lightyear. Barring some terrible variant driving up hospitalizations, I think it'll stabilize and grow decent legs in chase weekends from here.

[YM!]

11 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Didn't Sonic 2 just break the non-supers Covid open LAST WEEKEND?  I mean, I know memories are short and we move on fast nowadays, but c'mon...

 

We have other success stories...but like 2019, they just aren't gonna quite live up to supers (Or Disney remakes/Pixar) numbers, but they don't have supers budgets either, so they don't need to...

 

Tbh I’d rather the OW have been flat with the same gross Sonic 2 has had lol cause at least it’s good legs. It’s moreso disappointing (albeit not unsurprising due to the high male skew) since this skew more towards families than the first one did. A 70m/170m-185m run is disappointing regardless of genre.

Edited April 16, 2022 by YourMother

[Maggie]

The Ow for JW:D will probably be big. I don't know about legs tho. The movie most likely won't be well received by critics imo (not that they matter much for this franchise)

[Brainbug]

Just now, Shawn said:

Agreed.

 

I think we all want (desperately) some consistency and normalization, but at the end of the day, this is still a pandemic market. People may be going about their lives more freely than a year ago, but the impact of the last two years is going to keep having ramifications -- especially while we're still in a pandemic and just treating it more casually due to vaccines and fewer restrictions. We are probably at least a year away from a post-pandemic market, and that may even been a little generous.

 

Sonic 2's bright spot is the fact that it's the only real family movie with kids in mind out there (besides Bad Guys) until Lightyear. Barring some terrible variant driving up hospitalizations, I think it'll stabilize and grow decent legs in chase weekends from here.

 

I think No Way Home's epic run has also instilled some (false) optimism, that the box office will be up and running in normal gear by now. But what weve seen so far indicates more that certain "event" movies (Superhero films so far this year) draw peoples to the theaters again a lot faster than smaller films where many people still probably think its enough for them to catch them on VOD/Streaming.

[Maggie]

Sonic is going to Par+ after 45 days, right? So late legs will not be good

[John Marston]

Box office is normal right now. Looks like people are searching for excuses for FB floppage 

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, Maggie said:

The Ow for JW will probably be big. I don't know about legs tho. The movie most likely won't be well received by critics imo (not that they matter much for this franchise)

 

Critics opinion on that upcoming masterpiece, zenith of filmmaking movie dont matter that much imo. Everyone knows that the plot will probably be stupid and nonsensical, but that doesnt matter sine everyone comes for some fun dino action. Way more important because of that is WOM / audience response. If its good, then legs will be good.

[Shawn Robbins]

5 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Sonic is going to Par+ after 45 days, right? So late legs will not be good

I'd look to Sing 2 as a potential comp there. That film held incredibly well despite a short theatrical window. Families who are going to the movies still want to get their kids out of the house. And Par+ lacks the subscriber base of something like a family-heavy Disney.

 

That said, let's at least see that stabilization happen in the days ahead after this weekend. It lost all PLF, so that hit is out of the way.

[Maggie]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Critics opinion on that upcoming masterpiece, zenith of filmmaking movie dont matter that much imo. Everyone knows that the plot will probably be stupid and nonsensical, but that doesnt matter sine everyone comes for some fun dino action. Way more important because of that is WOM / audience response. If its good, then legs will be good.

I know, but from the trailer, dinos chasing through the streets of Rome (?) looks too ridiculous even for this franchise. You could say the movie has jumped the shark...

Edited April 16, 2022 by Maggie

[YM!]

Granted this past few months have been good for non supers I guess, Uncharted probably did the best out of the releases in terms of run, despite frontloading a $70m OW with 58% families for Sonic 2 is lovely and The Lost City doing 90m is good and I do think that consistency will return. I’m just disappointing by the lack of consistency and I just really have been hoping for better. I fancy myself a leg guy and to be honest while I do think it’s plausible given that the only consistent demographic during the pandemic probably rushes OW I do find the leg game disappointing for the non-tentpoles as they tend to rely on stronger legs. Yes both The Lost City and Sonic 2 are wins but both missed the milestones they probably would’ve made five odd years ago. But it’ll naturally take some time to adjust and fix, and both results are good, just not as great as hoped.

Edited April 16, 2022 by YourMother

[YM!]

Also glad EEAAO is doing well, at least there’s something doing great this month lol.

Edited April 16, 2022 by YourMother

[filmnerdjamie]

5 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Thats no big deal. You'll see it on Sunday, June 12th, when the estimate of a 210M+ OW are published.

 

I didn't dislike Jurassic World. Liked it perfectly fine in a three-star out of five way, ya know?

 

But I never bothered with Fallen Kingdom. Trailers were unappealing, reviews/reception didn't make me think I missed out and from the looks of Dominion, they are pretending they never played the Nostalgia Card (annoyingly so, to be honest) while hoping for "finale factor."

[Shawn Robbins]

$20.1M

 

B+ CinemaScore

 

56% female

67% over age 25