TOP GUN MAVERICK/MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THREAD | 126.7M 3-Day, 160.5M 4-Day. The biggest Memorial Day opening ever! | Doctor Strange 20.5M 4-Day, Bob's Burgers 14.8M

[John Marston]

51 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

I don't want to go too over the top based on one night, but the next 8-10 days should be really fun.  I think all the factors are there to see some monster legs and a ridiculous hold next weekend.  

 

It isn't going to lose a single screen or showtime.  The only thing coming out is Hustle (Netflix) and Crimes of the Future (Netflix), which will both mean absolutely nothing.  The WOM is already off the charts and I believe is actually growing at an absurd rate that we haven't seen in a very long time. 

 

Sounds crazy, but wouldn't be totally shocked if a $75m second weekend happens.  

 

do you think JW Dominion will do better than FK?

[EmpireCity]

I think I am about to officially board the "Top Gun: Maverick is going to suck a lot of the wind out of Jurassic Wold: Dominion's sales (pun intended)".  

 

Don't get me wrong, I think it will still open huge and do fine, but all reports are that the movie isn't good.  It isn't terrible either, but essentially a misfire mixed in with this is the last one and we brought back the original cast nostalgia.  

 

The next 10 days, the most important leading up to the opening, are going to be dominated by Tom Cruise and Top Gun: Maverick and a lot of the walk up business will shift.  

 

The lesson for Universal and Jurassic going forward is that people want to see the mayhem actually happen at a "functioning" park and not out in the world.  The two entries that truly did great and blew up both took place at the park while it was somewhat up and running.  

 

When they re-boot this again next time, they are going to have to take it back to a park setting.  

[LonePirate]

The WOM for TGM is stratospheric. Dare I say the WOM is probably second only to Titanic during the past 25-30 years. It certainly seems more widely loved than the huge MCU films (NWH, Endgame, BP), TFA, Avatar and RotK. It's not going to spend 15 weeks on top like Titanic and it's not going to match its domestic gross, let alone its worldwide gross. 

 

A 4.0 multiplier could certainly happen. There is no competition for the adult audiences that are driving the film. Young women are now eating up the scenes with the young pilots, especially Teller, at least judging by the numerous TikTok videos I have seen of them lusting after him. The film can co-exist with JWD and Lightyear. Maybe even T:L&T. A huge July 4th is on tap and it's very possible the film will remain in the weekend Top 10 through Labor Day, maybe even clawing back some PLFs by then. 

[EmpireCity]

1 minute ago, LonePirate said:

The WOM for TGM is stratospheric. Dare I say the WOM is probably second only to Titanic during the past 25-30 years. It certainly seems more widely loved than the huge MCU films (NWH, Endgame, BP), TFA, Avatar and RotK. It's not going to spend 15 weeks on top like Titanic and it's not going to match its domestic gross, let alone its worldwide gross. 

 

A 4.0 multiplier could certainly happen. There is no competition for the adult audiences that are driving the film. Young women are now eating up the scenes with the young pilots, especially Teller, at least judging by the numerous TikTok videos I have seen of them lusting after him. The film can co-exist with JWD and Lightyear. Maybe even T:L&T. A huge July 4th is on tap and it's very possible the film will remain in the weekend Top 10 through Labor Day, maybe even clawing back some PLFs by then. 

 

It absolutely is going to play well into August at most theaters and well into September at some larger megaplexes.  I also see a heafty re-release with PLF screens coming over Labor Day.  

 

Paramount needs to keep this thing off streaming as long as humanly possible. 

[John Marston]

4 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

I think I am about to officially board the "Top Gun: Maverick is going to suck a lot of the wind out of Jurassic Wold: Dominion's sales (pun intended)".  

 

Don't get me wrong, I think it will still open huge and do fine, but all reports are that the movie isn't good.  It isn't terrible either, but essentially a misfire mixed in with this is the last one and we brought back the original cast nostalgia.  

 

The next 10 days, the most important leading up to the opening, are going to be dominated by Tom Cruise and Top Gun: Maverick and a lot of the walk up business will shift.  

 

The lesson for Universal and Jurassic going forward is that people want to see the mayhem actually happen at a "functioning" park and not out in the world.  The two entries that truly did great and blew up both took place at the park while it was somewhat up and running.  

 

When they re-boot this again next time, they are going to have to take it back to a park setting.  

 

but FK did well and even had a solid multiplier 

[motionpic05]

1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

 

It absolutely is going to play well into August at most theaters and well into September at some larger megaplexes.  I also see a heafty re-release with PLF screens coming over Labor Day.  

 

Paramount needs to keep this thing off streaming as long as humanly possible. 

 

Oh for sure. I have a feeling we are going to see a smaller than expected drop next weekend. I think under 50% is possible. WOM is fantastic. 

[motionpic05]

5 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

I think I am about to officially board the "Top Gun: Maverick is going to suck a lot of the wind out of Jurassic Wold: Dominion's sales (pun intended)".  

 

Don't get me wrong, I think it will still open huge and do fine, but all reports are that the movie isn't good.  It isn't terrible either, but essentially a misfire mixed in with this is the last one and we brought back the original cast nostalgia.  

 

The next 10 days, the most important leading up to the opening, are going to be dominated by Tom Cruise and Top Gun: Maverick and a lot of the walk up business will shift.  

 

The lesson for Universal and Jurassic going forward is that people want to see the mayhem actually happen at a "functioning" park and not out in the world.  The two entries that truly did great and blew up both took place at the park while it was somewhat up and running.  

 

When they re-boot this again next time, they are going to have to take it back to a park setting.  

 

They are definitely smart to play the "OG cast is back!" card. That will 100% help.

I think it's going to underperform. $120-130 million OW. Pre-Sales are honestly slow compared to Fallen Kingdom here.

[Tokugennumataka]

3 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

The WOM for TGM is stratospheric. Dare I say the WOM is probably second only to Titanic during the past 25-30 years. It certainly seems more widely loved than the huge MCU films (NWH, Endgame, BP), TFA, Avatar and RotK.

Most of those MCU flicks had better PostTrak scores and similar CinemaScore. And Avatar certainly had far better wom than any of them, evident by its numbers. 

[EmpireCity]

5 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

but FK did well and even had a solid multiplier 

 

I said it is going to open huge and do fine.  

 

I could see something like a $150m opening and not reaching $400m.  

[Tokugennumataka]

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont see 100% increase weekend. Aladdin increased 84.5%.

I was going with that because Godzilla: KoTM likely stole a good amount of showtimes, accounting for weaker Tuesdays (maybe business shifts to weekends) and stronger wom than Aladdin. 

[John Marston]

Just now, EmpireCity said:

 

I said it is going to open huge and do fine.  

 

I could see something like a $150m opening and not reaching $400m.  

 

worse legs than FK even with fathers Day second weekend? Well I guess if it’s really bad…

[EmpireCity]

4 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

worse legs than FK even with fathers Day second weekend? Well I guess if it’s really bad…

 

I'm just throwing out random shit like I'm Scott Mendelson right now.  

 

Basically, I am backing off any $200m opening weekend and going with shorter legs.  

[keysersoze123]

I heard the same things and posted earlier. That is why I am highly skeptical. I thought few months ago this will open > 200m as well. But they screwed the pooch with the movie and now keeping the reviews blocked till the day of release while opening in many markets is not going to help. it might have done better in a dead market but TGM being the juggernaut wont help at all. We will know in 10 days for sure. 

[EmpireCity]

Checking numbers again, $160m+ seems locked for the 4 day along with $34m for Monday.  $160.7m sounds about right.  

[Eric Prime]

19 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

I think I am about to officially board the "Top Gun: Maverick is going to suck a lot of the wind out of Jurassic Wold: Dominion's sales (pun intended)".  

 

Don't get me wrong, I think it will still open huge and do fine, but all reports are that the movie isn't good.  It isn't terrible either, but essentially a misfire mixed in with this is the last one and we brought back the original cast nostalgia.  

 

The next 10 days, the most important leading up to the opening, are going to be dominated by Tom Cruise and Top Gun: Maverick and a lot of the walk up business will shift.  

 

The lesson for Universal and Jurassic going forward is that people want to see the mayhem actually happen at a "functioning" park and not out in the world.  The two entries that truly did great and blew up both took place at the park while it was somewhat up and running.  

 

When they re-boot this again next time, they are going to have to take it back to a park setting.  

I really hate the Jurassic World series, so I don't have a huge horse in this race. But I don't get why "dinosaurs in the real world" is now all of a sudden a bad hook. It's basically a kaiju/monster movie, you get dope money shots when the dinos mess up historic landmarks, it's basically just a gritty Flintstones. That sounds pretty awesome on paper and would have gotten me on board if I was more in favor with these movies. And I don't get what else you can do with a "functioning theme park" idea. The first Jurassic World already did just about everything you could do with it. What else is there to hook people in? Another big dinosaur destroying the park...again?

 

8 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

worse legs than FK even with fathers Day second weekend? Well I guess if it’s really bad…

Second weekend has Lightyear taking up all its PLFs. Pretty much every movie sinks like a rock on its second weekend because its PLFs are swallowed up by the next big movie, and even if it gets late legs, it can still be hard to maintain a good multiple in the end. Said this before, but theaters really need to find a way to get like 2-3 IMAX auditoriums, 2-3 Dolbys, 2-3 4DXs, etc. in their establishements, because PLFs are the only things people are willing to go to these days.

[EmpireCity]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I heard the same things and posted earlier. That is why I am highly skeptical. I thought few months ago this will open > 200m as well. But they screwed the pooch with the movie and now keeping the reviews blocked till the day of release while opening in many markets is not going to help. it might have done better in a dead market but TGM being the juggernaut wont help at all. We will know in 10 days for sure. 

 

These things go in waves.  Top Gun: Maverick explodes and (unfortunately) Jurassic World: Dominion is going to suffer for it (along with other factors).  

 

What that then likely means is Lightyear is going to get a boost in interest (because we actually know it is off the charts good) and the market will be ready for another breakout.  

 

Elvis and The Black Phone will overperform.  

 

Minions: The Rise of Gru will do fine but be depressed.  

 

Thor: Love and Thunder will explode.  

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Top Gun beat DSitMoM 3 days in 5 states. Guess those.

Edited May 31, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I'm curious how much Thor will do. I'm still expecting 390-410 but MCU is a bit messy now and 2nd trailer gave me bad vibes.

 

Nope might have mixed wom but that's still at least 120m domestic

 

Elvis is Baz and he's usually very divisive but it has a solid timeframe for an adult release (nothing remotely hurting it until Crawdads). Helps it's a big musical about an icon with Hanks

[EmpireCity]

2 minutes ago, Eric Belcher said:

I really hate the Jurassic World series, so I don't have a huge horse in this race. But I don't get why "dinosaurs in the real world" is now all of a sudden a bad hook. It's basically a kaiju/monster movie, you get dope money shots when the dinos mess up historic landmarks, it's basically just a gritty Flintstones. That sounds pretty awesome on paper and would have gotten me on board if I was more in favor with these movies. And I don't get what else you can do with a "functioning theme park" idea. The first Jurassic World already did just about everything you could do with it. What else is there to hook people in? Another big dinosaur destroying the park...again?

 

Second weekend has Lightyear taking up all its PLFs. Pretty much every movie sinks like a rock on its second weekend because its PLFs are swallowed up by the next big movie, and even if it gets late legs, it can still be hard to maintain a good multiple in the end. Said this before, but theaters really need to find a way to get like 2-3 IMAX auditoriums, 2-3 Dolbys, 2-3 4DXs, etc. in their establishements, because PLFs are the only things people are willing to go to these days.

 

I think it sounds good on paper, but people love the escapism of the park setting.  Putting the dinosaurs in the real world messing up historical places sounds awesome but for whatever reason just hasn't connected or been done right.  

 

I agree with you on what is the hook, but the soon to be 6 movies have proven that the two that take place in the functioning park are the most beloved and succesful and the others do fine but are mostly an afterthought.  

 

Like you said, not sure where they go with this from here.  Maybe it has had a longer run, but burns itself out completely as a concept like Alien and The Terminator have.  

 

Jurassic Park had Spielberg and the novelty of realistic CGI that had never been done before.  Jurassic World had the novelty of "hey, they are back at a park again and there is the Starlord guy and the music sounds like John Williams!"

 

I just think in 2022 we are no longer in awe of CGI dinosaurs.  Spielberg made them real, the passage of time and technology has made them fake again.  

 

 

[ThomasNicole]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I heard the same things and posted earlier. That is why I am highly skeptical. I thought few months ago this will open > 200m as well. But they screwed the pooch with the movie and now keeping the reviews blocked till the day of release while opening in many markets is not going to help. it might have done better in a dead market but TGM being the juggernaut wont help at all. We will know in 10 days for sure. 

Yeah, i just said it in the movie thread, but since it's being discussed here too, JW already screened here in Brazil because it opens Wednesday and sadly the reviews i saw are awful, i don't remember the last blockbuster with this kind of reviews here, even Venom 2 or Eternals was better iirc.

 

Let's see if the audiences will enjoy it, i'm still excited because i'm interested in the action, but i wouldn't be surprised at this point if the reception gets mixed with everyone.