Weekend Thread (6/3-5) | Top Gun 2 drops 29% for 90M. The smallest second weekend drop ever for a 100M+ opener!

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

2 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Kosinski's contribution is still significant, he actually pitched his version to Cruise which convinced him to do it, his pitch included heart of the film, real stunts andbhe even pitched the title and bringed Miles Teller and Jennifer Connelly in. If it gets a big push from Paramount, he can get a nod.

 

It's silly to say critics vote in Academy because they in fact don't vote in Academy, they don't have membership Ethan Hawke was pushed incredibly hard for Best Actor by critics, he won every single critics award and he wasn't even nominated in the end.

What do you want to bet

[Firepower]

4 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

Dune was top 5 and had a lot of prestige going in. It's like arguing The Lord of the Rings and Mission Impossible are on the same level of prestige. Avatar also has prestige because of Cameron.

Dune's reception wasn't anywhere near LOTR. Maverick's overall reception is much better than Fallout and it's more of a character piece and MI is more about action.

[Maggie]

Imo, out of all the blockbusters this year, only Avatar 2 will be nominated in the tech categories. JC will blow people away with the water sequences. All the other need no apply

[filmlover]

Babylon is unquestionably going to be Paramount's awards push for this year. A Damien Chazelle period drama about the industry starring Robbie and Pitt timed to awards season is definitely where most of their resources will be poured into, especially if it ends up going to the fall festivals (maybe it will, maybe it won't - it is the kind of awards contender that can easily bow late with no need for festival hype since the talent involved means it's going to be receiving a lot of press coverage regardless).

[Maggie]

The biggest chance TG2 at getting a nom is editing. I'd love Eddie Hamilton to be nominated. He's quaietly doing good work for years

[ThomasNicole]

5 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Eh, Dune was still a prestige Villeneuve film. It won every technical award nominated, debuted at Venice, and he made the DGA as well as WGA. Part 2 might very well end up winning BP ala Return of the King

 

Top Gun has a chance with 10 but it's not very prestige, it's a sequel, and Paramount might not campaign heavily when they have Babylon. And getting Cruise to commit to months long campaign seems unlikely. Top Gun also will struggle to get into SAG + WGA + DGA which even most blockbusters can do like Black Panther. Academy voters will just vote for whatever they like and whatever is being pushed to them.

I agreed. Dune did the whole path for awards since the beginning, it already dropped with Oscar buzz surrounding it. Top Gun released too early, it will need a strong remember campaign to have a shot, i can see happening if they invest because it is clearly something that the members can like way more than a typical MCU flick, but it will depends if Cruise cares enough to work hard for it which honestly who knows. 

 

But in the end, it doesn't matter, the movie doesn't even need this. It's the Oscars that are desperate for audience (idk why tbh, people watch things online these days but they keep trying to get huge ratings that doesn't happen anymore no matter what movie is there).

[Firepower]

7 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

ITT: People who don't follow awards saying Top Gun is a sure thing arguing with people that do follow awards saying it's not likely.

I follow awards season and BP nom is near lock, reception is just on another level.

 

[harrisonisdead]

21 minutes ago, Eric Mitchell said:

I'm still adamant AMPAS will push blockbusters hard this year in a hopeless vain to get people watching their shows. And I'm more than confident the studios know this and will campaign hard on their potential blockbusters. Top Gun 2 getting in would not be that crazy IMO

It's shaping up to be a more blockbuster-y awards season, regardless of whatever efforts the Academy may or may not be actively partaking in. Everything Everywhere could definitely have a strong showing at the Oscars and even if it doesn't have blockbuster numbers it has such strong grassroots momentum that I feel it would be of similar effect as a blockbuster showing up (kinda like a mini Get Out situation). Avatar 2 also has a possibility of showing up as far as actual blockbusters go. Top Gun 2 was already a shoo-in for technical categories (especially given how acclaimed it has been) but maybe they'll try to push it further.

 

It's certainly not going to be like these past couple seasons where box office momentum just wasn't a thing and we didn't see the kind of mid-size successes, cult followings, or highly acclaimed blockbusters that have shown up at the Oscars in the past. 

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Maggie said:

Imo, out of all the blockbusters this year, only Avatar 2 will be nominated in the tech categories. JC will blow people away with the water sequences. All the other need no apply

 

I think its about 10 to 1 odds on Avatar 2 getting the VFX oscar. It's going to be 10 years ahead of cinema like the first.

 

Then you look at Jims filmography.

 

The Terminator

Aliens - Won VFX oscar

The Abyss - Won VFX oscar

Terminator 2:Judgment Day - Won VFX oscar

True Lies - Nominated

Titanic - Won VFX oscar

Avatar - Won VFX oscar

 

The Terminator had a small budget as it was his first film, and yes budget collerates with chance of winning VFX oscar.

[lorddemaxus]

13 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I don't see BP2 getting nominated over TG2.

I agree tbh. But I feel like this year is more crowded than usual with blockbuster potentials.

[Maggie]

In the end it doesn't matter. Why do people need validation from the Oscars?

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

I agreed. Dune did the whole path for awards since the beginning, it already dropped with Oscar buzz surrounding it. Top Gun released too early, it will need a strong remember campaign to have a shot, i can see happening if they invest because it is clearly something that the members can like way more than a typical MCU flick, but it will depends if Cruise cares enough to work hard for it which honestly who knows. 

 

But in the end, it doesn't matter, the movie doesn't even need this. It's the Oscars that are desperate for audience (idk why tbh, people watch things online these days but they keep trying to get huge ratings that doesn't happen anymore no matter what movie is there).

I'm someone who absolutely would have preferred Spider-Man last year for example over half the lineup and I'd take Top Gun over Everything Everywhere this year. And I think it's borderline in BP. But I just assume Academy voters will vote for whatever they want regardless of buzz, etc, and what they like tends to be prestige, middlebrow, or underdogs easy to root for. Top Gun's better comp is Ford v Ferrari, not blockbusters IMO

[Firepower]

13 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

What do you want to bet

I wouldn't bet on Kosinski's nom, I'm just saying it's not impossible with the right push.

Edited June 5, 2022 by Firepower

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

But in the end, it doesn't matter, the movie doesn't even need this. It's the Oscars that are desperate for audience (idk why tbh, people watch things online these days but they keep trying to get huge ratings that doesn't happen anymore no matter what movie is there).

Contracts that they have no choice but to wait until they expire to do anything about (since either AMPAS or ABC - or both - are too silly to not amend them to the shifting ways of media consumption). That's why these past few ceremonies have gone overboard in trying to appeal to everyone to nothing but negative feedback (both from the industry and from the general public).

[titanic2187]

If Ford v Ferrari is there up in the race, there is no reason to decline the possibility of TGM getting nominated. Let's not forget TGM is highly appeal to the conservative members of the AMPAS and that should give TGM room to breathe in the award season. 

[Maggie]

Just now, titanic2187 said:

If Ford v Ferrari is there up in the race, there is no reason to decline the possibility of TGM getting nominated. Let's not forget TGM is highly appeal to the conservative members of the AMPAS and that should give TGM room to breathe in the award season. 

Are there such members?

[superduperm]

1 minute ago, Maggie said:

In the end it doesn't matter. Why do people need validation from the Oscars?

This.

 

Without looking it up, I can’t even name the last several BP winners. I remember Lala Land more than the real BP winner because of the memes (something with Moon in the title?) The only one I can confidently name is True Grit.

 

Meanwhile, I can easily name most of the highest-earning blockbusters of the last 20-30 years.

 

Maybe I’m just still young. I don’t know. But I stopped caring about the Oscars awhile ago. They’re just movies that a specific group of critics picked to win awards, to me. And I’m aware that my tastes are very different from that group.

[titanic2187]

2 minutes ago, Maggie said:

In the end it doesn't matter. Why do people need validation from the Oscars?

Ya, like why Athletes need validation from Olympics right?

[JohnnyGossamer]

I'd honestly be surprised if Top Gun isn't nominated. I expect it and, if good, Avatar to be nominated.

[Firepower]

8 minutes ago, superduperm said:

Maybe I’m just still young. I don’t know. But I stopped caring about the Oscars awhile ago. They’re just movies that a specific group of critics picked to win awards, to me. And I’m aware that my tastes are very different from that group.

Critics don't vote for Oscars, people who work in the industry do, from actors and directors to producers and writers. They are not nearly as snobbish as critics, The Academy's tastes are actually pretty close to general audiences.

Edited June 5, 2022 by Firepower