WEEKEND THREAD: No one went to the Danger Zone :( 145M JWD, 51.8M TGM, EEAAO reaches 61 DOM

[Taruseth]

9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

60
14
1.4

 

18m

42m

48m

38m

for 146m

 

14.5m

20m

16.5m

for 51m

 

 

 

Edited June 11, 2022 by Taruseth

[excel1]

JW sequels could have been so huge had quality been stronger.

[EmpireCity]

8 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

meh for Maverick , gonna need 20% drop next week if it wants to sniff 600m

 

You've got some scorching hot takes the last day.  

[Hilpkioy]

4 minutes ago, excel1 said:

JW sequels could have been so huge had quality been stronger.

Ikr? I don't hate them as some do I think they're decent and watchable fun popcorn movies but would've been more memorable and earn more box office wise if they bothered with plot and scripts.

Edited June 11, 2022 by Hilpkioy

[Brainbug]

60M OD makes mid 140s OW a lot more likely than 150M+ imo. Dominion would need a really good Sat increase to make 150M happen. Still, as has been said before, its still solid, especially given its critical reception and Top Guns giant breakout.

 

Top Guns drop will be the source for many hot takes this weekend, but i woundt be suprised to see it drop 25% or so next weekend, maybe even closer to 20%. It is the ultimate Fathers Day movie.

[Cooper Legion]

46 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Not really dude, money is money. Universal's not going to care. 

Yes really “dude.” $1 2022 won’t buy you as much as $1 2018 so universal in fact does care somewhat about real vs nominal — but even if they didn’t, who cares if Universal cares? 

Edited June 11, 2022 by Legion and Thunder

[JohnnyGossamer]

With Father's Day next weekend, I could and kind of expect to see TGM with just under a 20% drop. It had a 29% drop from it's inflated opening holiday weekend to its second weekend. The by far biggest weekend to weekend drop was always going to be this weekend due to the loss of premium screens. It will have course corrected after losing premium screens and next weekend will be inflated by Father's Day. 

 

Separate note, when do people expect Strange 2 to hit 400M+ DOM next week? Thursday? Or, will it need to wait until Friday or Saturday?

[nguyenkhoi282]

Aladdin also had a 42% drop on its 3rd weekend, and went on to add another 5.1x of that weekend onto its total gross.

343 + 54 = 397

54*5 = 270

397 + 270 = 667

 

I think TGM still has a chance at $650m.

[FilmFincher]

2 hours ago, wildphantom said:

I’m realising by the end of the week when I’ve seen JWD again that I’ll have spent the same amount on it as TG2

 

 

 

It just means you have to go see Top Gun 2 again to restore balance! 

[Mr Terrific]

DS2 to $400m on Thursday?

First to $398m!

Sigh. 

[wildphantom]

Do we need to consider JWD’s Saturday might be a bigger jump than FK, considering no family competition? 

[wildphantom]

1 minute ago, FilmFincher said:

 

It just means you have to go see Top Gun 2 again to restore balance! 

100%
 

i’ll be going back to the danger zone one or two more times, without question.  
 

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Do we need to consider JWD’s Saturday might be a bigger jump than FK, considering no family competition? 

 

I thought about that as well. Incredibles 2 was a true juggernaut in 2018 and ofc, most of that were family audiences. While Top Gun is expanding its audience and is certainly attractive for familys as well, its not nearly the same level as Incredibles was with its 80M weekend against Fallen Kingdoms OW. Dominion thus imo has a chance to jump higher than FK but its far from a certainty.

 

Id love to see it ofc.

Edited June 11, 2022 by Brainbug the Dinosaur

[Cooper Legion]

Thursday almost certainly.
 

If Fri and Sat are down 33% for TGM, I’d expect maybe like a 20% sun increase instead of 20% decrease (I.e. a 50% boost to Sun — *possibly* even more). That’s ~ a 16% boost to the 3day would take the wknd drop from 33% to just 22% or so. Won’t be surprised with teens drop.

[Cooper Legion]

This is slightly earlier in June, maybe slightly more kids in school, could help sat bump. On the other hand I assume this is more plf heavy than FK (just general 2022 vs 2018 market trends) which hurts Sat bump.

Edited June 11, 2022 by Legion and Thunder

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 hour ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

It was critics proof because it delivered what audience wanted in spades..... Tons of Robots smashing into each other.

 

Plus Age of Extinction blew up in China really well, i don't know how much DOTM did.

 

Jurassic World Dominion would've been critic proof too had it actually delivered on its premise,even if in that case critics ratings were 20-25%

It is critic proof, no? JWD will do close to or over 400M DOM. Wouldn't that fit the description? 31% on RT but a 400M DOM earner? 

[Cooper Legion]

“Critic proof” is kind of a ill-defined term, but in the most straightforward sense it probably doesn’t have anything to do with a large final gross, right?   
 

If a movie would do 900M with good reviews and 750M with poor ones, that’s not critic proof — they took a big bite out.  
 

A movie that would do 40M with good reviews and 40M with poor ones is critic proof.

[M37]

1 hour ago, Legion and Thunder said:

There’s definitely a tension between the CS and verified aud here. Occam’s razor suggests that the “true” reception is likely somewhere in between what either would suggest independently. It’s hard to test for relative correlative value because they themself are so correlated in most cases. PostTrak will be another data point soon.
 

Anyway I still feel like this is going to miss 8x and open down from the last one in gross and double digits down in admits. If people wanna cheer for that that’s their prerogative, I guess it reflects just how drastic expectations had gotten, but it seems pretty bad to me. Between the og cast and finally delivering on dinos in world hook, there was a broad consensus on these boards (and other credible tracking models) before pre-sales that this should  increase from FK in admits and certainly in gross. People continued to hope/expect that even after underwhelming PS start and well into underwhelming PS middle. The poor execution squandered that.

This comment seems to imply that there was ~$50M of potential OW revenue that didn’t materialize because the final product was meh? 

 

Maybe a weaker product in contrast to an excellent second option with TG2 limited ceiling, or perhaps such projections were always too high. We’re going to find out over next month how much sustained revenue/admits the current market will bear 

[JohnnyGossamer]

11 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

“Critic proof” is kind of a ill-defined term, but in the most straightforward sense it probably doesn’t have anything to do with a large final gross, right?   
 

If a movie would do 900M with good reviews and 750M with poor ones, that’s not critic proof — they took a big bite out.  
 

A movie that would do 40M with good reviews and 40M with poor ones is critic proof.

I understand the reasoning... So, with this, would consider Transformers 2 and 3 not quite critic proof because with a better reception Revenge of the Fallen could've done 500M+ DOM and Dark of the Moon could've done 450M+ DOM? Or, is there a certain cutoff DOM where it doesn't matter and it's critic proof even if it left maybe close to 100M on the table in each case?

[Alex SciChannel]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

60
14.25
1.45

Thank you Charlie. My 60M Friday hopes number may come to fruition.