WEEKEND THREAD: No one went to the Danger Zone :( 145M JWD, 51.8M TGM, EEAAO reaches 61 DOM

[Menor the Destroyer]

Catching up:

 

I don't think this can be considered a good opening whatsoever. Top Gun is no excuse considering FK had to deal with I2 which was much more direct competition. Fallen Kingdom was already a very hefty drop from JW, so dropping from FK in admits isn't great.

 

Cinemascore being the outlier here compared to a lot of other audience metrics is a bit surprising and naturally prompts a bit of suspicion of the number. We will see what PostTrak provides, if that's good as well then we can trust the CS.

[titanic2187]

50 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I actually forgot about that. It's overwhelmingly been embraced by US corporations as a holiday as of this year. Some embraced as early as last year but now it's much, much more. The company I work for swapped out Indigenous People's Day for in 2022 work holidays. Should get both but that's what they did. A ton of US moviegoers will be off on Monday 6/20 because Juneteenth falls on a Sunday this year. That'll inflate everything but especially TGM. It'll inflate the OW DOM for Lightyear for certain too. 

 

I wonder if that weekend next summer with Juneteenth falling on a Monday will be extra coveted because of this as well and going forward. It's not Memorial Day or the 4th of July but it's definitely, especially when falling on a Sunday (because Monday will be day corporations observer the holiday like this year) or Monday like this year and next year become a huge box office boosting summer holiday.

 

With that, TGM will absolutely slay next weekend. JWFK should have a slight softer weekend to weekend drop too. And, Lightyear will absolutely have an inflated 3 day OW DOM and a pretty impressive 4 day holiday opening too.

 

My feeling is that, when falling on Friday through Saturday, Juneteenth will act kind of like President's Day does now for box office weekends. Excited to see how the next turns out and what kind of impact it has on the numbers next Sunday and Monday.

Before pandemic, every major federal holiday is a plus factor for box office except Independence Day. But this past Memorial weekend, we actually see a very poor holiday effect among holdovers. Yes, holiday, weekend, and Tuesday bump are no longer as intense as before but this signal some permanent lost of moviegoers especially family. I think theater chain really need to tackle this issue especially giving incentive for family, to deal high rising ticket price. And family business is very important to cinema since they typically bring in 4-5 admission per purchase. 

[Alex SciChannel]

Deadline saying 59.55M Friday. Actuals, save us

 

[narniadis]

The little things that time forgets.... Transformers 3 definitely paid the price for T2s horrendous wom. The only reason it looks as good as it does is the 3D % increase. I don't recall if BOT was before or after T3 but the ticket drop from T2 was big and we discussed it a lot back in the day. The reality showed up in T4 which was more akin to where T3 would have been without 3D. 

2011-12 the last years of 3Ds big hurrah. 

[narniadis]

As for JWD 🤷‍♂️ its fine in an empty room without context, but I'd be lying if I thought following JP3 in the downward trend was good. Had hoped it would at least get 150m but such is the BO. 

[titanic2187]

 

Quote

In addition, audiences love this one enough with an A- CinemaScore, which is the same grade that 2018’s Jurassic: Fallen Kingdom received. Comscore/Screen Engine exits were harder at 3 1/2 stars and 73% and 57% definite recommend. (vs. Fallen Kingdom‘s 82%, four stars).  The under 12 crowd love the movie more than the adults at 92% positive and a 69% recommend.

Quote

A lot of ‘walk-up’ business with 58% of Dominion tickets purchased same day with 14% a week ago, and 11% more than a week ago.

Dominion drew 54% guys, close to half from the moviegoing demo of 18-34. Those under 17 repped 15%. Diversity demos were 41% Caucasian, 25% Hispanic and Latino, 16% Black, and 15% Asian and 5% other. Imax and PLF are powering 36% of tickets sales to date. The West and the Southwest are the strongest territories. Fallen Kingdom was 56% under 25, Dominion is 41% currently, which means the core fanbase just got older.

 

[Madhuvan]

Underestimate Jurassic franchise at your own peril.

 

People do it again and again anyways to be proven wrong every opening weekend. I remember some even said FK will open below I2 second weekend and what not.

 

Either way this should be the reminder once again that bad reviews won't hurt Jurassic box office. People will check out at their own interest level.

 

Another great opening. Jurassic franchise is only franchise immune to bad reviews even at such massive scale.

[Cooper Legion]

55.55 per the numbers, RIP 130 

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

 

 

Guess people were right to be skeptical of the Cinemascore and it wasn't "copium."

 

Those age demos are very interesting to me. I guess maybe the old cast marketing was more effective for older audiences?

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

A lot of ‘walk-up’ business with 58% of Dominion tickets purchased same day with 14% a week ago, and 11% more than a week ago.

 

Do we have any data like this for other films? Seeing how this compares to things like MoM, TGM, Batman, etc. etc would be beneficial to our prognostication. 

[Cooper Legion]

1 minute ago, Madhuvan said:

Underestimate Jurassic franchise at your own peril.

 

People do it again and again anyways to be proven wrong every opening weekend. I remember some even said FK will open below I2 second weekend and what not.

 

Either way this should be the reminder once again that bad reviews won't hurt Jurassic box office. People will check out at their own interest level.

 

Another great opening. Jurassic franchise is only franchise immune to bad reviews even at such massive scale.

@THUNDER BIRD @Brainbug the Dinosaur 

 

now you see

[JohnnyGossamer]

7 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Before pandemic, every major federal holiday is a plus factor for box office except Independence Day. But this past Memorial weekend, we actually see a very poor holiday effect among holdovers. Yes, holiday, weekend, and Tuesday bump are no longer as intense as before but this signal some permanent lost of moviegoers especially family. I think theater chain really need to tackle this issue especially giving incentive for family, to deal high rising ticket price. And family business is very important to cinema since they typically bring in 4-5 admission per purchase. 

Definitely not like past years but holdovers and the big opener certainly benefitted from Memorial Day holiday weekend this year. I agree about theaters incentivizing it but regardless Juneteenth being observed next Monday as a US federal holiday will absolutely soften the Sunday drops and inflate the Monday numbers of especially JWD, TGM and LY. It will be noticeable. It'll be one last boosted weekend for DS2 as well before it's off to Disney+ too.

[Alex SciChannel]

60M Friday not happening? 150M weekend likely not happening

 

[charlie Jatinder]

19 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

PostTrak lines up with RT more than CS imo

sampling error yay?

[Issac Newton]

Jurassic World Dominion grossed an estimated $59.5M on Friday (from 4,676 locations), including Thursday previews.#JurassicWorldDominion #BoxOffice @UniversalPics @JurassicWorld pic.twitter.com/q5vdH2T51Y

— BoxOfficeReport.com (@BORReport) June 11, 2022

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

3 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

60M Friday not happening? 150M weekend likely not happening

 

$150M wasn't happening whether it was 60, 61 or 62. Today will increase about 10% from yesterday and Sunday will decrease about 20% from today. These patterns are nigh-immutable at this point. 

[ringedmortality]

9 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Diversity demos were 41% Caucasian, 25% Hispanic and Latino, 16% Black, and 15% Asian and 5% other.

 

So JWs audience is pretty diverse. Wonder how diverse Lightyear is gonna be

[THUNDER BIRD]

When i didn't fully enjoy a Jurassic Movie then i knew things weren't right. 

 

I mean i love almost everything dinosaurs, and my first reaction after watching Fallen Kingdom was to congratulate Colin Treverow and J Bayona on a great work.

 

My first reaction on Dominion was, what am i even watching.

[M37]

8 minutes ago, ZurgXXR said:

 

Do we have any data like this for other films? Seeing how this compares to things like MoM, TGM, Batman, etc. etc would be beneficial to our prognostication. 

Deadline does (infrequently) include those figures in their write-up, usually for the more walk-up heavy films though 

[Alex SciChannel]

3 minutes ago, ZurgXXR said:

 

$150M wasn't happening whether it was 60, 61 or 62. Today will increase about 10% from yesterday and Sunday will decrease about 20% from today. These patterns are nigh-immutable at this point. 

Why 10% today? It was 15% for Fk.