BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[IndustriousAngel]

Finally I got some 2012 totals from Austria; The "under"-performing Hobbit1 led to a weaker-than expected December (admission-wise) and so we missed 2011's totals even if we came close. Still, 2012 was stronger than 2006,7 and 8, and the 4th quarter 2012 was stronger than nearly every other year expect 2009. Since the two biggest hits were 2D (Intouchables and Skyfall) I doubt that it looks different in Dollars.

[Fullbuster]

Finally I got some 2012 totals from Austria; The "under"-performing Hobbit1 led to a weaker-than expected December (admission-wise) and so we missed 2011's totals even if we came close. Still, 2012 was stronger than 2006,7 and 8, and the 4th quarter 2012 was stronger than nearly every other year expect 2009. Since the two biggest hits were 2D (Intouchables and Skyfall) I doubt that it looks different in Dollars.

 

What do you expect for 2013? Weaker than 2012? Stronger?

[IndustriousAngel]

I have to say the slate looks weaker, but - no, BUT - last year's nr.1 (Intouchables) came completely ot of nowhere and 007 did much much more than usual, and so I hope we might get surprised again. "Django Unchained" is already on its way to maybe even 600.000 (twice the "Golden Ticket" awarded for 300.000 admissions) which is a real surprise; German comedy "Schlussmacher" does better than expected - so 2013 is definitely off to a good start and I'm keeping my fingers crossed!

 

Some additional facts about Austria:

After the expansion in the 90s and early 2000's, the number of seats has stayed about flat or seems to decline a bit. Austria, especially Vienna, has too many cinemas with far too many seats so many cinemas operate on very slim gains. They operate on less than 170 admissions/seat/year (in the early 2000s this was over 190). The number of cinemas has dropped from about 180 in 2000 to 154 as of 2012, at the same time the screens went from 534 to 570.

Edited January 29, 2013 by IndustriousAngel

[Rudolf]

If you take BOMojos list for 2013

IronMan3 no

Thor2 no

StrarTrek2 no

Fast&Furious6 yes

Hangover3 yes

MonstersUnversity no

DespicableMe2 yes

TheHobbit2 yes

ManOfSteel no

PacificRim no

LoneRanger no

AfterErth ?

Oblivion ?

Elysium yes

...

 

does  not look too good

[IndustriousAngel]

Austrians (as germans) tend to love comedies, so Hangover3 as the only comedy here misrepresents the potential (as we just see with "Schlussmacher"). Especially with comedies there's always breakout potential because WOM is so much more important than with other genres.

Apart from comedies and your BOM slate, I see the following dark horses: Les Misérables, 3096 Tage, Rubinrot, Now You See Me, Schlümpfe2, RED2, and Catching Fire. Thor 2, btw, might do better than part 1, reactions were positive and it did better than Iron Man anyway!

[IndustriousAngel]

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany + Austria Top 13 Jan  24-27

TW	LW	Movie	Studio	Weekend	Change	Gross	Week
1	1	Django Unchained	Sony	$ 8.873.648	-14,0	23.969.980	2
2	2	Schlussmacher	Fox	$ 3.204.789	-20,4	14.640.483	3
3	N	Flight	Constantin	$ 1.812.332	-	1.898.078	1
4	3	The Hobbit 1	WB	$ 1.531.246	-37,6	94.270.693	7
5	4	Life of Pi	Fox	$ 1.218.827	-39,2	25.297.064	5
6	N	Lincoln	Fox	$ 863.530	-	868.384	1
7	N	Gangster Squad	WB	$ 838.839	-	941.359	1
8	N	Movie 43	Constantin	$ 783.468	-	801.920	1
9	5	Ritter Rost	Universum/Const.	$ 594.472	-15,2	2.609.992	3
10	6	Celal ile Ceren	Kinostar	$ 502.796	-26,3	1.355.334	2
11	9	Vampirschwestern	Sony	$ 439.375	-5,6	5.711.599	5
12	N	Quartet	DCM/Filmladen	$ 438.798	-	505.351	1
13	10	Hannah Arendt	NFP/Filmladen	$ 339.365	-25,7	1.757.165	3

Django and Schlussmacher with a spectacular hold, and behind them five wide openers made it into the Top12. Movie43 even was #3 in Austria!! The 6th major opener, Tankenweenie, franked with about 160.000 US$. It was, again, a very strong weekend, even up from last year when "Intouchables" was in full steam.

This weekend, there are three wide openings: "Fünf Freunde 2" (sequel to the german Enid-Blyton adaption, could get to #3), plus "The last Stand" and, still wide but on a smaller scale, "Zero Dark Thirty". Both will not make much impact I guess, Osama is not that big a theme here and the general anticipation level for Arnie's latest could be described as somewhere between mildly interested and non-existent. But with DU and Schlussmacher safely leading the pack, it will be a good weekend again!

[IndustriousAngel]

Friday trend for Germany's weekend:

DU: 425k (<30% drop again, wow!)

Schlussmacher: 275k (<10% drop omg ...)

FünfFreunde2: 200k (very good opening if true)

Flight: 115k (down 20%, ok after a soft opening)

 

the Last Stands opens with probably a bit below 100k admissions.

 

Very good weekend again, especially for german films. Django Unchained is simply a monster. It may be in part thanks to Christoph Waltz who dubs his own english and does a very good job, he's hilarious. (Just heard Arnie on his promotion tour for The Last Stand and it's a good thing he gets dubbed by a professional; his austrian is nearly as bad as his american ...)

Edited February 1, 2013 by IndustriousAngel

[IndustriousAngel]

It seems we had a terrific Saturday, last estimates see everything higher than with first trends, DU might drop only about 20%, Schlussmacher 5%. Really fantastic holds everywhere!

[IndustriousAngel]

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany + Austria Top 13 Jan  31 - Feb 03

TW	LW	Movie	Studio	Weekend	Change	Gross	Week
1	1	Django Unchained	Sony	$ 7.168.185	-19,2	34.118.925	3
2	2	Schlussmacher	Fox	$ 3.099.514	-3,3	18.592.083	4
3	N	Fünf Freunde 2	Constantin	$ 1.788.351	-	1.788.351	1
4	3	Flight	Constantin	$ 1.596.599	-11,9	4.027.768	2
5	4	The Hobbit 1	WB	$ 1.253.800	-18,1	95.917.820	8
6	5	Life of Pi	Fox	$ 1.002.548	-17,7	26.682.104	6
7	6	Lincoln	Fox	$ 956.252	+10,7	2.207.099	2
8	N	The Last Stand	Splendid/Fox	$ 920.328	-	1.001.072	1
9	N	Zero Dark Thirty	UPI	$ 822.341	-	937.433	1
10	7	Gangster Squad	WB	$ 634.125	-24,4	1.859.978	2
11	8	Movie 43	Constantin	$ 607.705	-22,4	1.618.484	2
12	9	Ritter Rost	Universum/Const.	$ 585.575	-1,5	3.297.629	4
13	12	Quartet	DCM/Filmladen	$ 440.280	+0,3	1.194.737	2

Most films with very good holds, some even with an increase (Lincoln!) - again better than the corresponding 2012 weekend. 2013 looks much better than expected until now! Fünf Freunde 2 in the Top3 as expected; ZDT and TLS opened a bit lower than I thought they could - at least Arnie was #3 in Austria.

This weekend, a sequel to a successfull Til Schweiger comedy, "Kokowääh 2", will easily top the BO but I expect decent holds for DU, Flight  and FF2 since the target demos don't overlap much. The fantastic run of "Schlussmacher" should hit its first bump though. On a much smaller scale, "Parker" will go for the Action crowd and french fish-out-of-water comedy "Bowling" for the arthouse demo.

[Poseidon]

"Kokowääh 2" is looking like it's going to have a slightly disappointing opening, but we'll have to wait until tomorrow...

[The Hand of Illumination]

Is django gonna hit 50m?

[IndustriousAngel]

Is django gonna hit 50m?

For Germany + Austria combined, very possible - for Germany solo, nearly impossible. To date, it has made 29,9mil US$ from Germany and 4,2mil US$ from Austria. Still, Germany is the biggest OS market for DU!

[juni78ukr]

Strange enough France has slightly more admissions than Germany but much less gross. Only 22.7m with BoM numbers and 21.5m with screendaily numbers. And recently average ticket price was pretty much the same for both countries. 

[IndustriousAngel]

Friday trend for Germany:

Kokowääh 2: 625k (pre-start included, so maybe 575k for the weekend proper)

DU: 350k

FF2: 200k

Schlussmacher: 150k

Parker: 120k

 

While "Fünf Freunde 2" stays basically flat from its opening weekend and will end up much higher than part 1, DU and Schlussmacher were hit harder than expected. I guess Kokowääh2 took too many evening screens. Still nice for both, DU will cross 3mil admissions this weekend and Schlussmacher 2mil.

I'm a bit shocked how much higher "Parker" opens compared to last week's "Last Stand" - Arnie isn't a draw any longer.

[IndustriousAngel]

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany + Austria Top 13 Feb  07 - 10

TW	LW	Movie	Studio	Weekend	Change	Gross	Week
1	N	Kokowääh 2	WB	$ 5.858.933	-	6.735.387	1
2	1	Django Unchained	Sony	$ 4.520.593	-36,9	41.025.882	4
3	2	Schlussmacher	Fox	$ 1.671.654	-46,1	21.684.980	5
4	N	Parker	Constantin	$ 1.359.795	-	1.490.626	1
5	3	Fünf Freunde 2	Constantin	$ 1.175.421	-34,3	3.508.946	2
6	4	Flight	Constantin	$ 990.252	-38,0	5.548.526	3
7	5	The Hobbit 1	WB	$ 750.050	-40,2	100.185.384	9
8	7	Lincoln	Fox	$ 728.114	-23,9	3.346.339	3
9	6	Life of Pi	Fox	$ 567.440	-43,4	28.450.900	7
10	9	Zero Dark Thirty	UPI	$ 415.504	-49,5	1.659.698	2
11	12	Ritter Rost	Universum/Const.	$ 341.915	-41,6	3.923.551	5
12	10	Gangster Squad	WB	$ 337.704	-46,7	2.449.458	3
13	8	The Last Stand	Splendid/Fox	$ 328.255	-64,3	1.624.613	2

As expected, Kokowääh2 took the lead, even if it opened much lower than its predecessor. "Parker" had an ok opening too, especially compared to the absymal performance of "The Last Stand". Bad drops for mostly anything else, but we had some weeks with very good holds in a row so that was to be expected somewhen. The US$ seems to make a dive (or the € is showing strength) and so the totals in US$ made a jump from last week, especially notable for "The Hobbit 1" which now crossed 100mil US$ in Germany+Austria combined.

This weekend, there's only one wide opening - "Die Hard 5" - while 3D re-issue "Finding Nemo" gets a semi-wide release. DH5 wil surely kill off TLS and Parker, and I suppose Kokowääh2 will lose a few of its many screens after the softer-than-expected opening, but everything else should'nt get hit too hard.

[IndustriousAngel]

Friday trend for Germany's weekend:

DH5 opens with about 700k admissions

Kokowääh2: 400 - 500k

DU: 250k

Schlussmacher and FF2: 125k each.

 

That's a half-decent opening for DH5; DH4 opened to 990k in June and had a multiplier of about 2.6; with a 3 multiplier it might cross 2mil.

[snitch]

Kokowääh2 will stay flat ?