Weekend Thread (6/24-26) | Actuals: Elvis 31.2, TGM 29.6, JWD 26.7, Black Phone 23.6, Lightyear 18.1

[nguyenkhoi282]

13 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

I was lowballing TGM at 30m this weekend b/c I didn't want a repeat of my 3rd weekend disappointment. Still doesn't bring me joy to know I got it right

I mean, last weekend was ultra inflated with a higher than usual Sat bump and an increase on Sun. There isn't much it can do to replicate that this weekend. It held incredible well during the weekdays, about to have a usual 70%+ Fri bump, 40-45% Sat bump and 15-20% Sun drop. It's perfectly natural, and even after accounting all those factors, around 30% drop from an inflated holiday weekend is exactly like its 2nd weekend hold. 

Pp are setting themselves up for disappointment hoping for more. 

[Moviedweeb]

4 minutes ago, motionpic05 said:

 

It's had an amazing run. If it stopped making money now, It would still be insanely successful. 

It's probably hurt a bit with Elvis and Black Phone coming into the marketplace.

It’s also better for TGM that there are other successful films being concurrently released since no one can claim that it cleaned up due to a vacuum in the marketplace. Of course there are less films being released in general than pre-pandemic, but it’s not as glaring as say NWH’s extremely long and essentially exclusive run (not to take away from that film’s success and importance to the industry). 

[efialtes76]

Friday-$13.5M

Sat-$11.5M

Sun-$8.5M

$33.5M

[nguyenkhoi282]

Without last weekend being a special weekend, TGM would have only made ~ 39M (-25%), instead of frikin - 14%. Then ~ 31M for this weekend mean another -20%. Still insane holds.

Edited June 25, 2022 by nguyenkhoi282

[motionpic05]

Black Phone is actually doing great for a horror movie in Ontario.

Typically, it seems that horror is less successful in Canada in general.

 

Extremely walk-up friendly at my local theatre. 

 

 

[Cheddar Please]

8 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

I mean, last weekend was ultra inflated with a higher than usual Sat bump and an increase on Sun. There isn't much it can do to replicate that this weekend. It held incredible well during the weekdays, about to have a usual 70%+ Fri bump, 40-45% Sat bump and 15-20% Sun drop. It's perfectly natural, and even after accounting all those factors, around 30% drop from an inflated holiday weekend is exactly like its 2nd weekend hold. 

Pp are setting themselves up for disappointment hoping for more. 

The 90m 2nd weekend and 12+m weekdays spoiled me rotten, to the point where I can't expect anything less from this movie than overperformances

[Grebacio]

any Dr Strange numbers? wondering how D+ impacted its numbers

[nguyenkhoi282]

17 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

The 90m 2nd weekend and 12+m weekdays spoiled me rotten, to the point where I can't expect anything less from this movie than overperformances

And it is still overperforming. I am just trying to make you understand how obvious box office patterns work. Last weekend it has something to its advantage (ultra overperformance), this weekend it goes back to its normal pace (which is already overperformance). If there was no advantage last weekend, your perspective on this weekend will be much different, although it may mean a lower overall gross for the movie.

Edited June 25, 2022 by nguyenkhoi282

[motionpic05]

Just now, Grebacio said:

any Dr Strange numbers? wondering how D+ impacted its numbers

Lot of theatres dropped it this week. Went from 2,465 to 1,855. 

Could apply it to having two fairly large releases this week. 

 

My local theatre (Ontario) has given it the smallest room, but it's still selling okay. 

Think there was about 20-25 tickets sold for it Today.

[Cheddar Please]

1 minute ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

And it is still overperforming. I am just trying to make you understand how obvious box office patterns work. Last weekend it has something to its advantage (ultra overperformance), this weekend it goes back to its normal pace (which is already overperformance). If there was no advantage last weekend, your perspective on this weekend will be much different, although it may mean a lower overall gross for the movie.

I understand that, hence why my official prediction was still at 30m. But you can't really shake that gut feeling it could have done better

[ThomasNicole]

So mid 30 for Elvis and 22-24M for The Black Phone 

 

Still happy with these 

 

But it's kinda early right? Maybe some late walkups can bring TBP to 7M true Friday or so.

 

 

Edited June 25, 2022 by ThomasNicole

[LegendaryBen]

1 minute ago, Cheddar Please said:

I understand that, hence why my official prediction was still at 30m. But you can't really shake that gut feeling it could have done better

Hoping for higher Friday but at least TGM has been a huge success and rare phenomenon.

[nguyenkhoi282]

12 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

I understand that, hence why my official prediction was still at 30m. But you can't really shake that gut feeling it could have done better

You'll get that next weekend.

[motionpic05]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

So mid 30 for Elvis and 22-24M for The Black Phone 

 

Still happy with these

Both great. They'll follow along nicely and have good holds. 

 

[Ronin46]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

So mid 30 for Elvis and 22-24M for The Black Phone 

 

Still happy with these

 

I am not sure it will get to 22-24. I was thinking 3+6.25+6.5+5= 20.75M. Hopefully WOM drives it higher. 

[RichWS]

People were getting their hopes way too high thinking 35 for Top Gun. 30 is another fantastic number considering Elvis would eat into the older audience and it's coming off an inflated weekend. Yes yes, I know about IMAX but it's a limited amount of showtimes. 

[Cmasterclay]

So after saying otherwise earlier in the topic I'm going to say I think I was wrong and that the news is having an impact on the box office - particularly Black Phone and Top Gun. After going to a rally, talking to some friends, then seeing these numbers, the impact is real. Black Phone is just a little dark and bleak for a younger audience that feels like shit, and even people like me who love Top Gun Maverick might be saying let's skip the patriotic propaganda movie today. Elvis/JW/Lightyear should be totally fine, though.

[motionpic05]

3 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

I am not sure it will get to 22-24. I was thinking 3+6.25+6.5+5= 20.75M. Hopefully WOM drives it higher. 

I still think it could push it to $7m for tonight, and take a nice jump for Saturday. 

But yeah, It would still be a good debut. 

 

Blumhouse always keep it cheap.

 

[ThomasNicole]

13 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

I am not sure it will get to 22-24. I was thinking 3+6.25+6.5+5= 20.75M. Hopefully WOM drives it higher. 

Absolutely, i'm definitely counting with WOM that looks excellent so far to push it higher to 24M or so.

[motionpic05]

23 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

So after saying otherwise earlier in the topic I'm going to say I think I was wrong and that the news is having an impact on the box office - particularly Black Phone and Top Gun. After going to a rally, talking to some friends, then seeing these numbers, the impact is real. Black Phone is just a little dark and bleak for a younger audience that feels like shit, and even people like me who love Top Gun Maverick might be saying let's skip the patriotic propaganda movie today. Elvis/JW/Lightyear should be totally fine, though.

Interesting.. but not all that surprised

 

With today's news and other recent events, Black Phone isn't exactly a cheer me up type of movie. 

But, I think Top Gun: Maverick is more impacted by Elvis since that's taking more of the older crowds. 

 

Still, both are looking at solid weekends.